BA & MLB.com's Cubs Top 10 Prospects

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If the Cubs keep Baez and Bryant down for all of 2014 so they can keep them down for some of 2015 to push back their FA by a year then they are deciding to punt 2 more seasons.

 

If we keep swearing there's no way the Cubs will punt seasons, eventually we have to be right, I guess.

 

Not to mention, that's only a slight delay in Baez's ordinary development schedule and it's exactly dead center of Bryant's normal development schedule.

[SouthSideRyan]

If the Cubs keep Baez and Bryant down for all of 2014 so they can keep them down for some of 2015 to push back their FA by a year then they are deciding to punt 2 more seasons. I will give odds, this is not going to happen.

 

ETA: The comparison to Johnson/Edwards is...odd Neither cleared 120 innings last season. Neither cleared 50 innings at High A. Their situations are nothing like Baez's.

 

What's the max difference in 2015 value between those two approaches? I wouldn't guess it to be all that much.

 

Purposely keeping your best option(s) at a given position in the minors when you have no margin for error is continuing to put no priority on winning at the major league level.

 

They will not be able to get away with doing nothing but preaching how great the farm system is, and then when Baez rakes at AAA all season keeping him down due to #poorTomRicketts.

 

Barring injury, Javier Baez will see the majors before September.

[imb]

#pullingamojo There's no way the very first mlb Happy Baez Day can top the first Happy Castro Day performance. Why does he have to suck now.

[davell]

By the way, Parks mentioned Soler as a top 30 type and said the other 3 are all in top 10-15 range. In talking Rangers, he said CJ wouldn't have been in his top 5, but a top 10 guy. In other words, not a top 100 guy for him.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Parks is the only guy who hates Edwards.

[Tryptamine]

To not even have him as a top 100 is bordering on irrational hatred. He must believe that it's pretty much a guarantee CJ is a reliever and even then probably a marginal one.

[davell]

I like Parks much more than most here, but as a Rangers fan, I do wonder if some homerism shows up? No clue what his opinion on CJ was prior to the trade though.

 

A worse case though, is Sickels with Sano vs Javy. Not worried about Sano's K rate or hit tool, yet is worried about Javy's K rate. Big on Sano's walk rate, doesn't acknowledge Javy's big improvement there. It's a plus that Sano can stick at 3rd to him, yet he docks Javy for not being likely to stick at SS, when 3B is worst case scenario for him.

[sneakypower]

To not even have him as a top 100 is bordering on irrational hatred. He must believe that it's pretty much a guarantee CJ is a reliever and even then probably a marginal one.

• Adam Miller ‏@2008_nbalottery 12 Nov
  @ProfessorParks Nice. And the big ? Is who is #5? AA, PJ or CJ?
   
  Jason Parks ‏@ProfessorParks 12 Nov
  @2008_nbalottery CJ has a good shot; he's a top 101 type. But Alcantara is a very nice player as well. Another top 101 type.

[ctcf]

To not even have him as a top 100 is bordering on irrational hatred. He must believe that it's pretty much a guarantee CJ is a reliever and even then probably a marginal one.

• Adam Miller ‏@2008_nbalottery 12 Nov
  @ProfessorParks Nice. And the big ? Is who is #5? AA, PJ or CJ?
   
  Jason Parks ‏@ProfessorParks 12 Nov
  @2008_nbalottery CJ has a good shot; he's a top 101 type. But Alcantara is a very nice player as well. Another top 101 type.

 

That's a lot of top 101 types.

[LaSalle.St.Station]

Bryant is promising, but is he destined with Boris as his agent to head to free agency and decline all contract extensions and thus be traded early in his cub career ?

[LaSalle.St.Station]

Bryant is promising, but is he destined with Boris as his agent to head to free agency and decline all contract extensions and thus be traded early in his cub career ?

[SABR Gamer]

No.

[KaiserCesar]

http://images.artistdirect.com/Images/Sources/AMGCOVERS/music/cover200/drf100/f181/f18151qro6c.jpg

[Bilbo161]

Bryant is promising, but is he destined with Boris as his agent to head to free agency and decline all contract extensions and thus be traded early in his cub career ?

Yea that does seem likely if the cubs are following the path of the cardinals. They always seem to restock their system by trading guys once they get their best years or a draft pick with a QO. Hoping we get a deal on him early (not likely) assuming he rakes his rookie season. Maybe delay the FA exit a couple seasons?

[Guest]

Bryant won't be a free agent until after the 2020 season, if not 2021. There's far more risk that he turns out to be not any good than there is that the Cubs need to trade him because he's going to be too expensive.

[Bilbo161]

Bryant won't be a free agent until after the 2020 season, if not 2021. There's far more risk that he turns out to be not any good than there is that the Cubs need to trade him because he's going to be too expensive.

I guess I agree with that, but I think he will be a beast. I just love getting my hopes up! I do think, though that as we go along here with a few of our top prospects bubbling up out of the system there will come a time when the big league club starts getting competitive, and our draft picks get outside the top 10 when we will need to consider what we could get in return for some of the guys that will be veterans by then and maybe keep the pipeline fresh. Yea, way ahead of myself there but that is what I want to see down the road.

[SouthSideRyan]

I like to get my hopes up about our prospects becoming studs so we can trade them away. You'd have to be more down on Ricketts than davell and me combined to think we couldn't keep Bryant past 2020. Jesus, Boras will be 68 years old by then, he may not even be a thing by that point.

[Guest]

Bryant won't be a free agent until after the 2020 season, if not 2021. There's far more risk that he turns out to be not any good than there is that the Cubs need to trade him because he's going to be too expensive.

I guess I agree with that, but I think he will be a beast. I just love getting my hopes up! I do think, though that as we go along here with a few of our top prospects bubbling up out of the system there will come a time when the big league club starts getting competitive, and our draft picks get outside the top 10 when we will need to consider what we could get in return for some of the guys that will be veterans by then and maybe keep the pipeline fresh. Yea, way ahead of myself there but that is what I want to see down the road.

 

The Cardinals have somehow managed an elite farm system without top 10 picks and big leaguer for prospects trades.

 

It can be done.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel's top 100 prospects: http://mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=9&c=12&yr=2014&nid=287&lnid=287&rc=4&pid=88&pg=1

 

8. Almora

10. Bryant

13. Baez

44. Edwards

53. Soler

80. Vogelbach

83. Johnson

88. Alcantara

 

On why he's higher on Almora than most:

 

- Albert Almora/CF, Cubs: Most thought I had Almora a little high as a top 10 guy, but when pressed, almost every scout conceded he's a high-probability, quick-moving guy that conservatively has a ceiling of .280 with 15 homers and plus defense. Almora may not have the flashy raw tools of other prospects ranked this high, but those projected numbers are close to what Carlos Gomez did this year, posting an 8-win season.

[Guest]

While I love and appreciate having 8 guys in his Top 90, rules are rules. Lindor at 5 and Baez at 13? You go on the list with the rest.

[sneakypower]

Almora may not have the flashy raw tools of other prospects ranked this high, but those projected numbers are close to what Carlos Gomez did this year, posting an 8-win season.

that's a really silly comparison, since Gomez can do and does do many things factored in WAR Almora is just physically incapable of; he'd retain more credibility if he just compared him to somebody like Austin Jackson (17 HR, .286 AVG, +0 UZR: 5 WAR 162-game pace the last 2 years)

[Rex Buckingham]

While I love and appreciate having 8 guys in his Top 90, rules are rules. Lindor at 5 and Baez at 13? You go on the list with the rest.

 

I just don't get it... even if you believe that Javy moves off of SS, does anybody think he won't be at least a solid 3B? An average (or slightly above average) defensive 3B that can hit .270 with 40 bombs and a solid OBP because he's being pitched around and can steal bases is, in my opinion, much more valuable than a SS who plays GG defense and hits .300 with 10-15 HRs with a solid OBP and steals some bases

[Guest]

I like to get my hopes up about our prospects becoming studs so we can trade them away. You'd have to be more down on Ricketts than davell and me combined to think we couldn't keep Bryant past 2020. Jesus, Boras will be 68 years old by then, he may not even be a thing by that point.

 

Haha...this is funny because of our conversation about Baez the other day.

[sneakypower]

While I love and appreciate having 8 guys in his Top 90, rules are rules. Lindor at 5 and Baez at 13? You go on the list with the rest.

 

I just don't get it... even if you believe that Javy moves off of SS, does anybody think he won't be at least a solid 3B? An average (or slightly above average) defensive 3B that can hit .270 with 40 bombs and a solid OBP because he's being pitched around and can steal bases is, in my opinion, much more valuable than a SS who plays GG defense and hits .300 with 10-15 HRs with a solid OBP and steals some bases

you may want to pump the brakes a little there with your expectations

 

but it's worth mentioning that it's possible to hit 30 HRs and still not be hugely valuable; see: Trumbo, Mark

[SouthSideRyan]

I like to get my hopes up about our prospects becoming studs so we can trade them away. You'd have to be more down on Ricketts than davell and me combined to think we couldn't keep Bryant past 2020. Jesus, Boras will be 68 years old by then, he may not even be a thing by that point.

 

Haha...this is funny because of our conversation about Baez the other day.

 

Ahhh but I never said that meant we wouldn't re-sign him. It's still a concern that we'll miss out on the ~5M in savings we'd get by locking him up earlier.