BA & MLB.com's Cubs Top 10 Prospects

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Justin (NY): Why wouldn't the cubs move Baez or Castro to 2B in order to have Bryant play 3B?

 

 

John Manuel: Because Bryant may not be good enough defensively at 3b. He's really tall for a third baseman. I mean, he's really tall. Listed at 6-foot-5 and looks taller because he's so lean. Hope he can stay at 3b because his arm is really fun to watch. Obviously it should play in the OF as well. He's athletic enough and runs well enough to project as an above-average RF defensively if not better.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Brett (Chicago): How does Vogelbach's bat compare to other top prospects? On bat alone, is he a top 50 prospect? Thanks.

 

 

John Manuel: He's not a top 50 prospect. The short version is, if you believe in Vogelbach, he's a sort of Matt Adams with better hitting ability, because he's shorter and more compact, and he really has a tremendous plate approach. If you don't believe, you think he's Brett Wallace and he'll never be able to turn on pitches on the inner half because of his, well, shape. Also, he's a bottom-of-the-scale defender. He's really a DH. So that's not a top 50 guy unless he's David Ortiz, and he's not. Vogelbach knows what he needs to do.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Bob (Mundelein, IL): Catcher seems to be the only position where there isn't a top-tier prospect. Are there any in the Top 30? Did Contreras or Malave come close?

 

 

John Manuel: Contreras, a converted 3b, has some admirers because of his offensive upside, he made some interesting progress this year. Not a top tier guy as you said but there's something there to be excited about.

[UMFan83]

Jeff C (Matteson, IL): I was mildly surprised to see CJ Edwards ranked so highly. Does his # 3 ranking suggest that BA sees him as capable of sticking as a starter despite his weight issues?

 

 

John Manuel: Yes. Durability concerns continue with Edwards and will continue at his current size, but his stuff was firm deep into September; the 93-95 mph reports I got in his last Florida State League start were from outside the organization, not within it. Superstars are unique. Edwards has a chance to be a superstar. He certainly is unique. I understand the trepidation about him; the comps to him start with Oil Can Boyd and I had another scout talk about Satchel Paige. That's instructive only in that players that skinny don't come around that often. My man-crush on Edwards is out there, even though I've backed up a bit, and I don't think the Cubs officials would rank him ahead of, say, Almora or even maybe Soler because Almora is safe bet and Solar has such upside. Durability is the concern but frankly that makes him not too different from every other pitcher on the planet, right?

 

I'd say the comps start with Edwin Jackson and go to Bob Gibson

 

Or maybe Kevin Foster up to CC Sabathia

[davell]

The depth here is insane. We're going to make the No. 4 overall pick and then have to legitimately debate if he makes our top 5.

I'll be very surprised if Javy has not used up his rookie eligibility by then. KB is 50/50 for me as well.

 

We'll see in a year. I would call your Javy timeline crazybuckets if not for the fact that it would leave me out of descriptions for your Bryant expectation.

 

I mean, is it theoretically possible? Sure. But to expect it?

 

Edit: Wait, I see the confusion. I meant *at the time of the pick*, not on the next official list.

 

Ah, that was me wording that bad. I'll be disappointed if Javy isn't up by August 1st. And I think KB can push the envelope to where he is too. Over/under ML AB's for Javy next year for me is 250.....I agree it IS crazybuckets to think Javy or Bryant will have lost draft eligibility by draft time. I'll be shocked if either has a single ML AB at that time.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Craig (The South Pole of Mars): How many of your sources think Candelario will be able to play solid 3B defense (even if not in Chicago)? And does he project enough power to be a good starter at 1B or OF?

 

 

John Manuel: He needs to stick at 3b, because of the reason you gave. His defense got better this year but he's not as good there as say Villanueva. The work ethic is what gives the Cubs confidence that he'll defend enough there because his arm strength and hands should be good enough.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

How would you rank Baez, Bryant, Soler, and Vogelbach based on pure raw power?

 

 

John Manuel: I have had scouts put 80 raw on Baez, Bryant and Soler. Some scouts don't like to give out 80s but I've heard it on all three. No one is putting that on Vogelbach, but Vogelbach does get to his power more than Soler. No one is getting to their power like Baez and Bryant in 2013 though, those guys combined to hit almost 100 HRs between spring games, college games, minors & AFL.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Ben (Cubbie Heaven): BA's midseason top 50 had Almora at 16 and Soler at 18, so I was stunned to see them both behind Edwards. Is this a case of Edwards stock shooting up or Almora's and Soler's dropping a bit?

 

 

John Manuel: Again, if people can't figure this out, I have a CJ Edwards man crush. Just deal with it. Maybe it's because I wish I were that skinny.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

That's it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ah, that was me wording that bad. I'll be disappointed if Javy isn't up by August 1st. And I think KB can push the envelope to where he is too. Over/under ML AB's for Javy next year for me is 250.....I agree it IS crazybuckets to think Javy or Bryant will have lost draft eligibility by draft time. I'll be shocked if either has a single ML AB at that time.

 

If I'm getting even-money odds, I'll take the under on 250. It's too easy to leave him down for service time and polish on a bad team, even if he could handle it.

[SouthSideRyan]

Ah, that was me wording that bad. I'll be disappointed if Javy isn't up by August 1st. And I think KB can push the envelope to where he is too. Over/under ML AB's for Javy next year for me is 250.....I agree it IS crazybuckets to think Javy or Bryant will have lost draft eligibility by draft time. I'll be shocked if either has a single ML AB at that time.

 

If I'm getting even-money odds, I'll take the under on 250. It's too easy to leave him down for service time and polish on a bad team, even if he could handle it.

 

Service time wouldn't have anything to do with keeping him under 250. 3 months is more than enough to avoid super 2

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ah, that was me wording that bad. I'll be disappointed if Javy isn't up by August 1st. And I think KB can push the envelope to where he is too. Over/under ML AB's for Javy next year for me is 250.....I agree it IS crazybuckets to think Javy or Bryant will have lost draft eligibility by draft time. I'll be shocked if either has a single ML AB at that time.

 

If I'm getting even-money odds, I'll take the under on 250. It's too easy to leave him down for service time and polish on a bad team, even if he could handle it.

 

Service time wouldn't have anything to do with keeping him under 250. 3 months is more than enough to avoid super 2

 

I'm saying that once you get past the halfway point of the season, it becomes easier to wait until after next year's service-time deadlines. Why bring him up in August when you can wait until September and then hold him down for a month in 2015?

[ctcf]

It's stuff like this that makes me feel a hell of a lot better after a year like that.

[SouthSideRyan]

Ah, that was me wording that bad. I'll be disappointed if Javy isn't up by August 1st. And I think KB can push the envelope to where he is too. Over/under ML AB's for Javy next year for me is 250.....I agree it IS crazybuckets to think Javy or Bryant will have lost draft eligibility by draft time. I'll be shocked if either has a single ML AB at that time.

 

If I'm getting even-money odds, I'll take the under on 250. It's too easy to leave him down for service time and polish on a bad team, even if he could handle it.

 

Service time wouldn't have anything to do with keeping him under 250. 3 months is more than enough to avoid super 2

 

I'm saying that once you get past the halfway point of the season, it becomes easier to wait until after next year's service-time deadlines. Why bring him up in August when you can wait until September and then hold him down for a month in 2015?

 

Because keeping Baez at AA for a year and a half would be asinine.

[davell]

Ah, that was me wording that bad. I'll be disappointed if Javy isn't up by August 1st. And I think KB can push the envelope to where he is too. Over/under ML AB's for Javy next year for me is 250.....I agree it IS crazybuckets to think Javy or Bryant will have lost draft eligibility by draft time. I'll be shocked if either has a single ML AB at that time.

 

If I'm getting even-money odds, I'll take the under on 250. It's too easy to leave him down for service time and polish on a bad team, even if he could handle it.

 

Service time wouldn't have anything to do with keeping him under 250. 3 months is more than enough to avoid super 2

 

I'm saying that once you get past the halfway point of the season, it becomes easier to wait until after next year's service-time deadlines. Why bring him up in August when you can wait until September and then hold him down for a month in 2015?

Thats one with an answer that many won't like: Ticket sales. If we sell off again, bringing Javy and/or KB up could make a sizeable difference towards the apathy that has set in over the last couple of second halves. Caveat being that they ARE ready, of course. If not, they won't be brought up for the sole reason of profits. Theo would quit if Ricketts demanded something like that.

[davell]

Ah, that was me wording that bad. I'll be disappointed if Javy isn't up by August 1st. And I think KB can push the envelope to where he is too. Over/under ML AB's for Javy next year for me is 250.....I agree it IS crazybuckets to think Javy or Bryant will have lost draft eligibility by draft time. I'll be shocked if either has a single ML AB at that time.

 

If I'm getting even-money odds, I'll take the under on 250. It's too easy to leave him down for service time and polish on a bad team, even if he could handle it.

 

Service time wouldn't have anything to do with keeping him under 250. 3 months is more than enough to avoid super 2

 

I'm saying that once you get past the halfway point of the season, it becomes easier to wait until after next year's service-time deadlines. Why bring him up in August when you can wait until September and then hold him down for a month in 2015?

 

Because keeping Baez at AA for a year and a half would be asinine.

They've already said Javy starts at AAA next year.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Because keeping Baez at AA for a year and a half would be asinine.

They've already said Javy starts at AAA next year.

 

That too

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Because keeping Baez at AA for a year and a half would be asinine.

 

They did it with Rizzo, who ended up with 700 AAA PAs.

[SouthSideRyan]

Because keeping Baez at AA for a year and a half would be asinine.

 

They did it with Rizzo, who ended up with 700 AAA PAs.

 

Oh, was that the entire story?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yes.

[craig]

Baez (and Bryant) can drive call ups if they have great seasons in the minors. But I agree with Kyle, there's a fair chance that one or both won't accumulate a full service year between 2014 and 2015. I hope they hit so well, and in both cases improve enough defensively, so that they play themselves into the majors before September, and make it obvious that they should be opening-day starters in 15.

 

As I mentioned earlier, I'm actually not so sure that the Baez/Bryant timeline differs greatly from Edwards/Johnson. Both players have defense to worry about, and contact to worry about. Pitchers sometimes advance more quickly. Both guys throw strikes, so I'm not sure exactly what they need to resolve. It may be that more-or-less what they throw now will carry up, and they may not need a lot of minor-league work if in fact they are going to end up being good.

 

The flip side, I think, is that Johnson comes with durability questions given his past and his delivery, and Edwards comes with durability questions based on his size, and his history of limited pitch counts and limited innings thrown. So in their cases, they may be pitching very well and be big-league ready ability-wise, but the Cubs may not want them up adding September innings to their workloads.

 

So, probably not likely that they'll really see many big-league innings (or service days) this season either.

[SouthSideRyan]

If the Cubs keep Baez and Bryant down for all of 2014 so they can keep them down for some of 2015 to push back their FA by a year then they are deciding to punt 2 more seasons. I will give odds, this is not going to happen.

 

ETA: The comparison to Johnson/Edwards is...odd Neither cleared 120 innings last season. Neither cleared 50 innings at High A. Their situations are nothing like Baez's.

[TruffleShuffle]

lol, how old is the scout who's making satchel paige comps?

[NOLA]

lol, how old is the scout who's making satchel paige comps?

 

Almora's make-up reminds me of Wee Willie Keeler.

[Guest]

If the Cubs keep Baez and Bryant down for all of 2014 so they can keep them down for some of 2015 to push back their FA by a year then they are deciding to punt 2 more seasons. I will give odds, this is not going to happen.

 

ETA: The comparison to Johnson/Edwards is...odd Neither cleared 120 innings last season. Neither cleared 50 innings at High A. Their situations are nothing like Baez's.

 

What's the max difference in 2015 value between those two approaches? I wouldn't guess it to be all that much.