Yankees Sign Masahiro Tanaka

[Tracer Bullet]

If Rakuten doesn't post him then it sounds more like sour grapes rather than strategy.

 

The odds of not getting 20 million for him next season are pretty slim, so why not keep him for another year? This isn't their only chance to post him.

 

But that's always been the case. If they just wanted one more year before cashing in, they wouldn't have decided to post him this year before the rule was changed. Unless they think this is going to result in more money next year, it doesn't make much sense for them.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If Rakuten doesn't post him then it sounds more like sour grapes rather than strategy.

 

The odds of not getting 20 million for him next season are pretty slim, so why not keep him for another year? This isn't their only chance to post him.

 

But that's always been the case. If they just wanted one more year before cashing in, they wouldn't have decided to post him this year before the rule was changed. Unless they think this is going to result in more money next year, it doesn't make much sense for them.

 

There's presumably some dollar value for them where the value of cashing in immediately and taking no risk outweighs the value to keeping him for another year.

 

It's possible that value is somewhere between the expected posting fee under the old system and $20m.

[hankp101]

Under the old system they stood to get a larger amount for posting him a year earlier (younger). Barring major injury they still see 20 mil next year, so the decision probably comes down to whether the difference between a hamburger today and a hamburger tomorrow outweighs the extra revenue they expect him to generate this year.

[Guest]

Rakuten Golden Eagles president Yozo Tachibana spoke to the Japanese media this weekend about MLB and NPB’s new posting system, which puts a $20 million cap on posting fees. The Golden Eagles own the rights to the hottest international free agent on the market this winter, Masahiro Tanaka, and were hoping to cash in like the Nippon Ham Fighters did in 2012 when they got a franchise-changing $51.7 million posting fee from the Rangers for Yu Darvish.

 

Put simply — and for obvious reasons — Tachibana and the Golden Eagles hate the new posting fee cap. They could take that frustration out on Tanaka by refusing to post him, denying the 25-year-old right-hander the ability to leave Nippon Professional Baseball this offseason to join a Major League Baseball team.

 

But it doesn’t sound like that will happen. Ben Badler of Baseball America breaks it down:

So in the end, while the Eagles are obviously upset that they won’t be making as much money off Tanaka as they were anticipating, if Tanaka wants to make the jump to MLB this season, it’s expected that they will let him go.

A $20 million posting fee is still a substantial amount of money for the Eagles, who control Tanaka’s rights for two more seasons. If they choose not to post him this winter, Tanaka would be only one year away from true free agency, at which point Tanaka might prefer to not be posted and wait another year to sign without any restrictions, leaving the Eagles without any compensation. As one MLB team official put it, whether the Eagles were counting on $60 million or $20 million for Tanaka, in the end, it’s likely $20 million or nothing.

[Deeg]

Badler has been peddling the "Rakuten must post him" line since the beginning, so he's certainly not going to stop now. I know it's hard for American fans to grasp, but NPB teams actually do care about winning and it isn't a minor league. They play a high standard of baseball in big stadiums and giving up the best pitcher in the league for $20 million isn't the slam-dunk guys like Badler make it out to be. Rakuten may still end up posting him because there's a sort of honor system here whereby if players ask to be posted, it's bad form not to do it. But if it were their choice, I suspect they'd get two more years out of him and let him walk as a FA.

[pccubfan]

Badler has been peddling the "Rakuten must post him" line since the beginning, so he's certainly not going to stop now. I know it's hard for American fans to grasp, but NPB teams actually do care about winning and it isn't a minor league. They play a high standard of baseball in big stadiums and giving up the best pitcher in the league for $20 million isn't the slam-dunk guys like Badler make it out to be. Rakuten may still end up posting him because there's a sort of honor system here whereby if players ask to be posted, it's bad form not to do it. But if it were their choice, I suspect they'd get two more years out of him and let him walk as a FA.

 

I don't disagree with what you say about the NPB and understand that $20 million is a far cry from what they were expecting, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking that it isn't a lot of money. If he can leave for nothing in two years, he's getting posted. The question is will it be this year or next.

[WrigleyField 22]

Badler has been peddling the "Rakuten must post him" line since the beginning, so he's certainly not going to stop now. I know it's hard for American fans to grasp, but NPB teams actually do care about winning and it isn't a minor league. They play a high standard of baseball in big stadiums and giving up the best pitcher in the league for $20 million isn't the slam-dunk guys like Badler make it out to be. Rakuten may still end up posting him because there's a sort of honor system here whereby if players ask to be posted, it's bad form not to do it. But if it were their choice, I suspect they'd get two more years out of him and let him walk as a FA.

 

I don't disagree with what you say about the NPB and understand that $20 million is a far cry from what they were expecting, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking that it isn't a lot of money. If he can leave for nothing in two years, he's getting posted. The question is will it be this year or next.

Yea, if not this year, it's next year. Would been interesting to see a scale on the max bid, dependent in years left.

[Deeg]

Badler has been peddling the "Rakuten must post him" line since the beginning, so he's certainly not going to stop now. I know it's hard for American fans to grasp, but NPB teams actually do care about winning and it isn't a minor league. They play a high standard of baseball in big stadiums and giving up the best pitcher in the league for $20 million isn't the slam-dunk guys like Badler make it out to be. Rakuten may still end up posting him because there's a sort of honor system here whereby if players ask to be posted, it's bad form not to do it. But if it were their choice, I suspect they'd get two more years out of him and let him walk as a FA.

 

I don't disagree with what you say about the NPB and understand that $20 million is a far cry from what they were expecting, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking that it isn't a lot of money. If he can leave for nothing in two years, he's getting posted. The question is will it be this year or next.

 

Is $20 million a lot of money? Sure. But Rakuten had income of something like $5 billion last year. And the real figure isn't $20 million - it's $20 million less whatever not having Tanaka on their roster costs them in other ways.

[KingCubsFan]

Badler has been peddling the "Rakuten must post him" line since the beginning, so he's certainly not going to stop now. I know it's hard for American fans to grasp, but NPB teams actually do care about winning and it isn't a minor league. They play a high standard of baseball in big stadiums and giving up the best pitcher in the league for $20 million isn't the slam-dunk guys like Badler make it out to be. Rakuten may still end up posting him because there's a sort of honor system here whereby if players ask to be posted, it's bad form not to do it. But if it were their choice, I suspect they'd get two more years out of him and let him walk as a FA.

 

I don't disagree with what you say about the NPB and understand that $20 million is a far cry from what they were expecting, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking that it isn't a lot of money. If he can leave for nothing in two years, he's getting posted. The question is will it be this year or next.

 

Is $20 million a lot of money? Sure. But Rakuten had income of something like $5 billion last year. And the real figure isn't $20 million - it's $20 million less whatever not having Tanaka on their roster costs them in other ways.

$5 billion? Even assuming you we're referring to revenues, that would make them ten times larger than the Yankees.

[Deeg]

Badler has been peddling the "Rakuten must post him" line since the beginning, so he's certainly not going to stop now. I know it's hard for American fans to grasp, but NPB teams actually do care about winning and it isn't a minor league. They play a high standard of baseball in big stadiums and giving up the best pitcher in the league for $20 million isn't the slam-dunk guys like Badler make it out to be. Rakuten may still end up posting him because there's a sort of honor system here whereby if players ask to be posted, it's bad form not to do it. But if it were their choice, I suspect they'd get two more years out of him and let him walk as a FA.

 

I don't disagree with what you say about the NPB and understand that $20 million is a far cry from what they were expecting, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking that it isn't a lot of money. If he can leave for nothing in two years, he's getting posted. The question is will it be this year or next.

 

Is $20 million a lot of money? Sure. But Rakuten had income of something like $5 billion last year. And the real figure isn't $20 million - it's $20 million less whatever not having Tanaka on their roster costs them in other ways.

$5 billion? Even assuming you we're referring to revenues, that would make them ten times larger than the Yankees.

 

Yes, revenue - $4.7 billion to be precise.

[Guest]

$5 billion? Even assuming you we're referring to revenues, that would make them ten times larger than the Yankees.

 

He's not just talking about the baseball team, which strikes me as a bit silly.

[ConstableRabbit]

It's not a bit silly -- it's extremely silly.

[ctcf]

So do we know how this $20 million cap system would work exactly? What happens when multiple teams bid 20 mil?

[Guest]

So do we know how this $20 million cap system would work exactly? What happens when multiple teams bid 20 mil?

 

They all have a chance to negotiate with him and he chooses.

 

It is almost certain that several (if not most) teams in baseball are going to be max bidding him. Makes no sense not to.

Edited December 9, 2013 by David

[ctcf]

So do we know how this $20 million cap system would work exactly? What happens when multiple teams bid 20 mil?

 

They all have a chance to negotiate with him and he chooses.

 

It is almost certain that several (if not most) teams are going to be max bidding him. Makes no sense not to.

 

Oh yea, I'd just assume everyone actually interested would max bid. What's 20 mil compared to what most teams were looking at?

[jersey cubs fan]

$5 billion? Even assuming you we're referring to revenues, that would make them ten times larger than the Yankees.

 

He's not just talking about the baseball team, which strikes me as a bit silly.

He was talking about the total revenues of the parent company?

[Guest]

$5 billion? Even assuming you we're referring to revenues, that would make them ten times larger than the Yankees.

 

He's not just talking about the baseball team, which strikes me as a bit silly.

He was talking about the total revenues of the parent company?

 

Yep.

 

http://i.imgur.com/e13L6tv.png

[Tracer Bullet]

If Rakuten doesn't post him then it sounds more like sour grapes rather than strategy.

 

The odds of not getting 20 million for him next season are pretty slim, so why not keep him for another year? This isn't their only chance to post him.

 

But that's always been the case. If they just wanted one more year before cashing in, they wouldn't have decided to post him this year before the rule was changed. Unless they think this is going to result in more money next year, it doesn't make much sense for them.

 

There's presumably some dollar value for them where the value of cashing in immediately and taking no risk outweighs the value to keeping him for another year.

 

It's possible that value is somewhere between the expected posting fee under the old system and $20m.

 

EPF2013 - EPF2014 = X (enough for them to want to post him in 2013)

 

So $20m2013 - $20m2014 = Y (possibly not enough to want to post him in 2013).

 

You're telling me that X is really that much higher than Y? Maybe they just feel disrespected, which could be a significant influence on the decision.

[Guest]

Yes? Tanaka's biggest appeal is his age, and while he's still young next year too, it cuts down a bit on how he's valued a year later. When most of the value is reflected in the posting fee, that's going to mean a good bit of money lost. Add in the risk of injury and there's another reason for a large X value. Compare to Y, which is basically a TVM question plus the chance that Tanaka has a really debilitating injury.

[Splendid Splinter]

Badler has been peddling the "Rakuten must post him" line since the beginning, so he's certainly not going to stop now. I know it's hard for American fans to grasp, but NPB teams actually do care about winning and it isn't a minor league. They play a high standard of baseball in big stadiums and giving up the best pitcher in the league for $20 million isn't the slam-dunk guys like Badler make it out to be. Rakuten may still end up posting him because there's a sort of honor system here whereby if players ask to be posted, it's bad form not to do it. But if it were their choice, I suspect they'd get two more years out of him and let him walk as a FA.

 

I don't disagree with what you say about the NPB and understand that $20 million is a far cry from what they were expecting, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking that it isn't a lot of money. If he can leave for nothing in two years, he's getting posted. The question is will it be this year or next.

 

 

I think it's either $20 mil this year or nothing at all. If I'm Tanaka and Rakuten doesn't post me this year, I'll play the next 2 years and leave as a FA and Rakuten will be left with nothing. I believe Rakuten can't post Tanaka next year without his permission. Well it's probably their honor system on that part. Because at that point, Tanaka is only a year away and will be able to talk to any team he want and have a real bidding war.

[Tracer Bullet]

Yes? Tanaka's biggest appeal is his age, and while he's still young next year too, it cuts down a bit on how he's valued a year later. When most of the value is reflected in the posting fee, that's going to mean a good bit of money lost. Add in the risk of injury and there's another reason for a large X value. Compare to Y, which is basically a TVM question plus the chance that Tanaka has a really debilitating injury.

 

I think X is basically a TVM question too. 25 isn't an age at which a pitcher's value suddenly drops. What's his first contract going to be? 5 years? Maybe 7? I don't think the difference in value of a SP to a MLB team from ages 25-32 drops dramatically when looking at ages 26-33 instead. If the financials supported posting him this year before the rule change, it would seem to support posting him after the rule change. So unless it's a matter of respect (possible) or spite (not a very Japanese reaction), then I think they'll still post him.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-rakuten-eagles-seek-true-world-championship-versus-red-sox/

 

Gammons quotes Rakuten owner: "I don’t intend to post him.”

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 2h

As for Tanaka, probably no definitive posting word until after Winter Meetings. System not final and Rakuten still has to meet with Tanaka.

[Gmoney08]

What is the range of Japanese team payrolls?

 

What does an impact player make, an average player, and the minimum guys?

[Guest]

Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1 30s

Executive Council to do conference call Monday to ratify new posting system with Japan