2014 Roster Discussion

[CubsWin]

Man, that's a depressing "core."

It certainly needs work. However, it is young and talented enough to improve, mostly from Castro, Rizzo and Shark. And, help appears to be on the way from within the Cubs system.

 

The emergence of Castillo as a top defensive and offensive catcher helps a lot, especially considering the dearth of talent the Cubs have in the system behind him.

 

The Cubs best hope of adding a player to their young core in 2014 might be signing Tanaka. The list of question marks currently on the roster is long which is good, but they're still just question marks. One or more of Arrieta, Lake, Vizcaino, Grimm, Cabrera could break out this season, but you certainly can't count on it. It's rare under this CBA that a team will have the chance to sign a talented pitcher before he enters his prime. It is rarer still that they won't have to give up a draft pick while doing so. Assuming the Cubs scouts like him, they would take a big step forward in their rebuild by not letting this one slip away.

[jersey cubs fan]

Man, that's a depressing "core."

It certainly needs work. However, it is young and talented enough to improve, mostly from Castro, Rizzo and Shark.

 

One of these things, is not like the other...

 

 

And that thing is Samardzija. He is not young, not really close. He turns 29 this offseason. He may not have a ton of mileage on his arm, but I don't think you can count on much improvement going forward.

[Guest]

I think its more of a big picture thing. Rizzo is the only longterm piece we have that's a lefty.

 

Are you sure he's long term?

After the play of our top prospects this season (Rizzo, Samardzija and Castro) I would say that no one is a lock to be here long term. Their saving grace may be that they have played bad enough that we could not get anything close to value we hope they achieve.

It seems that the only guys that seem to be locks to here in over the next 3-4 years are Baez and Soler.

So Bryant is a goner?

[SABR Gamer]

Only because they seem untouchable during the development process. The are certainly our brightest spots in the organization.

 

Right now do you think you could get more for Rizzo or Baez? There aren't many teams out there who don't feel they have a better option at first base right now

How about Castro?

 

It's as if you have no clue what you are talking about!

[abuck1220]

gonna guess the 1b that the front office has traded for multiple times and has signed to a long-term deal is much more of "lock" to be around in 3 years than the guy that hasn't played above high A.

[neely crenshaw]

I think its more of a big picture thing. Rizzo is the only longterm piece we have that's a lefty.

 

Are you sure he's long term?

After the play of our top prospects this season (Rizzo, Samardzija and Castro) I would say that no one is a lock to be here long term. Their saving grace may be that they have played bad enough that we could not get anything close to value we hope they achieve.

It seems that the only guys that seem to be locks to here in over the next 3-4 years are Baez and Soler.

So Bryant is a goner?

 

It's was just kind of a for instance, perhaps an exaggeration. With the current play of our stars, I am not sure that anyone on the MLB roster is a sure thing. With Bryant's play this summer, he does seem to be on the fast track. It sure seems like most of the positive chatter is about guys not yet on the roster.

[neely crenshaw]

Only because they seem untouchable during the development process. The are certainly our brightest spots in the organization.

 

Right now do you think you could get more for Rizzo or Baez? There aren't many teams out there who don't feel they have a better option at first base right now

How about Castro?

 

It's as if you have no clue what you are talking about!

 

Ok, please tell which team would trade their first baseman headup for Rizzo, My guess you would be few teams that is trying or hoping to win next year would do it, you might make a case for a team hoping for the future.

Like it or not he has been outperformed offensively by such notables as Brandon Belt, Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche, James Loney,Chris Carter, Mitch Moreland, Justin Smoak and even Juan Francisco. Right now in baseball he is ranked 29th of all 1B, and 23rd out of 25 for those with qualified at bats. We love him, but I'm not sure the rest of baseball thinks as highly of him currently.

We need him to be closer to Votto but what we got this year is Adam Laroche.

[neely crenshaw]

Also if Rizzo drops another .220/.740 ops season and Castro goes .240/.620 or god forbid they go backwards, do you think the FO is looking for plan B? We are all hoping but at some point performance will have to outweigh potential.

[davell]

Kyle, heading towards the projecting wins thing soon enough, is projecting 8 wins from a bench and bullpen too much? What's fair for those?

[jersey cubs fan]

Kyle, heading towards the projecting wins thing soon enough, is projecting 8 wins from a bench and bullpen too much? What's fair for those?

 

Kyle is the decider of these things?

[SouthSideRyan]

Depending on how you want to calculate it:

 

Position players not in our starting lineup on Opening Day (-Barney, +whatever crap we had at 2B on opening day): 4.3 fWAR, 4.3 bWAR

 

Pitchers not in our starting rotation in April: (-Garza, + Villanueva): 0.3 fWAR, 4bWAR

 

Now YMMV on how you want to calculate what constitues a bench/pen guy vs. a a guy like Chris Rusin who is ~half the bWAR and is keeping the fWAR from being a game below replacement. (Junior Lake being the position player version)

 

Personally, I think it makes sense to look at this way, because bench/pen is really more a matter of depth than anything else.

 

In response to your question, I'd say we should be looking for 8-10 out of those groups. (This way of calculating could be even more difficult to figure next year with an expected Baez call up mid-season)

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Kyle, heading towards the projecting wins thing soon enough, is projecting 8 wins from a bench and bullpen too much? What's fair for those?

 

I think that's in the vicinity. I usually use something in the vicinity of 2.5 wins for the bench, and I'd like to think we can get 5-6 from the pen next year. That's a lot, but not like league-leading a lot or anything.

[davell]

Arguello at CubsDen asks if we should go after CarGo this offseason. I think it'd be possible to get him without having to give up Javy. If you do that and somehow win the Tanaka sweepstakes.....I think our window opens in 2014, without doing anything else.

[SouthSideRyan]

Why would they trade him to begin with, let alone without receiving Baez?

[Boris]

Seems like the Rockies would want a pitching strong package for CarGo.

[davell]

Why would they trade him to begin with, let alone without receiving Baez?

There were rumors he's been available in the past and evidently some rumblings he may be available this offseason. With 4/63 left on his deal, I could see a package built around Almora, Lake, Vogelbach, and some pitching depth(Arrieta and Hendricks?) getting it done. Maybe swap out Vogelbach for Alcantara?

[Jax Teller]

They aren't one player away from being playoff contenders so trading away a package like that for Carlos Gonzalez doesn't make any sense.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They aren't one player away from being playoff contenders so trading away a package like that for Carlos Gonzalez doesn't make any sense.

 

Or we could just trade for him and also acquire other players.

[Guest]

They aren't one player away from being playoff contenders so trading away a package like that for Carlos Gonzalez doesn't make any sense.

 

Or we could just trade for him and also acquire other players.

I like that idea.

[Jax Teller]

They aren't one player away from being playoff contenders so trading away a package like that for Carlos Gonzalez doesn't make any sense.

 

Or we could just trade for him and also acquire other players.

 

Who? Cano will cost a fortune & Ellsbury will get way more than he should. Those are the only real impact offensive players that are going to be Free Agents.

 

//edit I forgot about Brian McCann

 

Choo, I guess would be a good get depending on the kind of deal he's looking for. So the only other option would be to pillage the farm system in order to acquire major difference makers. Doesn't seem worth it to me.

 

I'm not saying they shouldn't acquire players or even dumpster dive for retreads just for the record.

Edited September 14, 2013 by Jax Teller

[SouthSideRyan]

Carlos Gonzalez is really good and signed for 4 more seasons. Unless you're punting until 2018 you make no sense.

 

ETA: Nevermind that that package wouldn't return Cargo

[davell]

If you added Cargo and kept Javy and Bryant in doing it, you could go get Tanaka and be extremely competitive in 2014. Javy and Bryant should both be ready to be counted on by 2015. A 3-6 of Cargo, Bryant, Javy, and Rizzo for 2015 seems pretty damn good to me.

[Jax Teller]

Carlos Gonzalez is really good and signed for 4 more seasons. Unless you're punting until 2018 you make no sense.

 

ETA: Nevermind that that package wouldn't return Cargo

 

I know that Gonzalez is good, I never said that he wasn't. I also didn't say they should or shouldn't be punting anything away.

[davell]

Carlos Gonzalez is really good and signed for 4 more seasons. Unless you're punting until 2018 you make no sense.

 

ETA: Nevermind that that package wouldn't return Cargo

Maybe Almora, Travis Wood, and Lake? Add Vogelbach to it? Or you just think Javy has to be in the deal? I'm asking this, because (as I duck for cover) I wouldn't trade Javy unless Trout or Harper were in the deal.

[Jax Teller]

Also, I should have been more clear. If you can get CarGo for a package that doesn't make everyone feel like they spent a night in Oz...then go for it. I just don't want to see them give up too much for him. Since he's really good & signed to a good deal, unfortunately that's what it will take to get him.