The Cuban Defectors Thread

[WrigleyField 22]

He's just a pup; someone with a nickname like "Al Contra" will succeed.

Probably true, but Soler's leg will probably fall off.

[Sammy Sofa]

He's just a pup; someone with a nickname like "Al Contra" will succeed.

Probably true, but Soler's leg will probably fall off.

 

http://i.imgur.com/zD3eR.gif

[sneakypower]

from a month ago, but his wOBA projection's only dropped by .004

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-10-prospects-currently-by-projected-war-3/

 

a full-season of his current ZiPS still amounts to a 2 win pace

Is Zips® the right projection to use for this purpose over Zips(U)?

yeah, that's correct; ZiPS (U) is just the rest-of-season projection added onto current season stats

[WrigleyField 22]

So if the model is to basically take the current ZiPs® and extrapolate it out to a full season, its not nearly as nice to Ruggiano and Coghlan who others have used as support that we have depth. Neither would be 2WAR players over a whole season with that model. And also Rizzo probably isn't as good as his WAR this year. Only Rizzo and Bryant have a chance to put up real big WAR value (and as awesome as Bryant is I'm pretty skeptical about those preseason projections from Oliver which state that). Most of our guys fall in the 2-2.5 range, and that's assuming full seasons, so there's all the partial players who would still get PA at lower WAR paces.

 

But you take a lot of the good teams and they have at least one guy who is (as of today) a 5-6 WAR monster plus either a few at 3WAR or even 6WAR pace in partial time. Or as a team, the top teams will likely end the seasons with 25+WAR production out of their hitters. Taking only the best 7 projections from that methodology and average catcher production (using preseason rankings for Soler and Bryant*) we'd fall about 20 WAR from our hitters. Still an upgrade from this year, but there's room for improvement. And there is roster and dollar space to bring in additional players. Now while you can't add those extra PAs in there, it just helps to minimize risk overall, whether it be injury or performance risk. We have roster space, we have cash, we have some versatile players. The more 2+war type projection guys we have, the better. Sure a higher WAR player that would legitimately bump a guy down would be nice, but those aren't as available either.

 

*pre-season projections seem really kind to Bryant and harsh to Soler. Intuitively it would seem to be more in the middle for both.

[Guest]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/09/03/should-yasmani-tomas-be-the-chicago-cubs-top-positional-target-this-offseason/

[davell]

@JesseSanchezMLB: Source: Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas has been cleared by US govt (OFAC). He still needs to be declared a free agent by MLB before he can sign

[Cubswin11]

@JesseSanchezMLB: Source: Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas has been cleared by US govt (OFAC). He still needs to be declared a free agent by MLB before he can sign

I really don't want to get my hopes up, but I really want him and he seems to fit what we look for

[Guest]

It's too bad Serie Nacional messed with the ball and the run environment dove so much, makes it hard to make good comparisons with Tomas and other recent Cuban imports.

[davell]

I think the only way we'd go hard after him is if we expect KB to stick at 3B and truly are planning on trading one of Castro, Javy, or Russell. Otherwise, with KB and Soler on the corners, I can't see us putting serious money into a guy that's going to be playing one of those positions as well.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think the only way we'd go hard after him is if we expect KB to stick at 3B and truly are planning on trading one of Castro, Javy, or Russell. Otherwise, with KB and Soler on the corners, I can't see us putting serious money into a guy that's going to be playing one of those positions as well.

 

Yeah, I don't really expect us to go hard for any big name unless he's a starting pitcher.

[Clem Fandango]

I'm sure it's been brought up but I didn't feel like searching through the thread... is Tomas athletic enough to handle CF?

[Cubswin11]

I'm sure it's been brought up but I didn't feel like searching through the thread... is Tomas athletic enough to handle CF?

I don't think so, pretty sure he's strictly a corner OF.

[WrigleyField 22]

Yea he played CF in Cuba but apparently not an MLB CF

 

 

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[davell]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/cuban-pitcher-jorge-despaigne-declared-free-agent/

 

Unfortunately, Despaigne falls under the IFA guidelines.

[ctcf]

Yasmany Thomas will have his first open showcase at the Giants facility in the Dominican Republic on Sept. 21st.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/sept-21-showcase-scheduled-yasmany-tomas/

[davell]

Talk of him getting 100+ mill now.

[Sammy Sofa]

Talk of him getting 100+ mill now.

 

Ricketts would do a spit-take, but he doesn't want to waste that valuable spoiled milk he found in the trash.

[Cubswin11]

Talk of him getting 100+ mill now.

Over how many years? I mean if it's for like 10, essentially getting him through his prime, I don't think that's an awful deal. But if he wants it over like 5-6 then I'd have some reservations.

[XZero771679666304]

Talk of him getting 100+ mill now.

Over how many years? I mean if it's for like 10, essentially getting him through his prime, I don't think that's an awful deal. But if he wants it over like 5-6 then I'd have some reservations.

 

Reservations? If he wants 5-6/100+ he can [expletive] right off. That's crazy talk. Jose Abreu is getting half that AAV.

[ctcf]

Sounds like the Rangers, Phillies, and Padres are among the teams with serious interest in Tomas. He's already had a private workout with the Phils and due to have one with the Rangers. Kinda surprised to not hear the Cubs name much.

[Guest]

29-year old 2B Hector Olivera has defected: http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/hector-olivera-leaves-cuba/

 

Last month, Badler ranked him the sixth best Cuban not in the US.

 

Olivera has long been one of the stars in Cuba that major league scouts have wanted the opportunity to sign. Olivera had been one of Cuba’s top stars and a regular on the Cuban national team. He was a standout at the 2009 World Baseball Classic—where he ranked behind only Aroldis Chapman, Yoenis Cespedes and Gourriel among Cuban prospects—and was the MVP of the 2010 Intercontinental Cup. Due to health issues, however, he’s missed significant time during the prime of his career, which creates a lot of uncertainty around him. It’s difficult to get reliable medical information on players in Cuba, but according to Cuban media reports, Olivera missed the 2012-13 season (and didn’t play in any international tournaments, including the 2013 WBC) due to thrombosis in his left biceps, a serious issue that can block blood flow. He returned this past season and showed he’s still one of the country’s top offensive threats.

 

When healthy, Olivera shows a well-rounded skill set with size, athleticism, hitting ability and power. Olivera recognizes pitches, stays within the strike zone and has hit over .300 in nine of his 10 seasons in Serie Nacional. He has good power for a middle infielder, ranking second in the league with 34 doubles in 2008-09 with 14-17 home runs in each of his last four seasons before he was sidelined. Olivera also showed his speed with 21 stolen bases in 22 attempts in 2007-08, though he hasn’t otherwise been a big basestealing threat. Olivera showed the defensive chops to play second base before missing time, but this past season Olivera spent most of his time at DH, with just 29 games at second base. Some consider a healthy Olivera to be one of the top players in Cuba, but he’s the most challenging player to evaluate on this list given his health issues. He turns 30 in April, and with Jose Fernandez now entrenched as the national team second baseman and Yulieski Gourriel planted at third base, Olivera’s future remains cloudy.

[ctcf]

Yasmany Tomas is now officially an MLB free agent

[MWV]

Yasmany Tomas is now officially an MLB free agent

Just because we have three guys that can go out there and form an Opening Day outfield that doesn’t mean that we are content. We are certainly going to look to add talent and shape the way the parts fit together once we acquire some more.

I'd love to believe that these items are related.

[Tryptamine]

Yasmany Tomas is now officially an MLB free agent

 

I want absolutely nothing to do with him given his rumored price tag. If he's available for 60 or 70M sure , but this 100M contract for a guy who wasn't even great in Cuba has disaster written all over it.

[Vinestal]

@sahadevsharma: Vibe I'm getting is Cubs aren't too interested in Yasmany Tomas. Price is gonna get crazy and they're not high enough on him to go there.

 

 

@sahadevsharma: One scout told me Tomas has a ton of swing-and-miss & his swing may need an overhaul to handle big league pitching. Restricted to a corner.