The Cuban Defectors Thread

[jersey cubs fan]

wtf is a 95 loss outfield?

Considering the OF the Cubs have this year and they probably won't have 95 losses with it, I'm guessing two straw men and a scarecrow.

 

I interpret it as an extrapolation from the performance you would get from that outfield, as in, if the rest of the team performed similar to that OF they would be a 95 loss team. Not a particularly fair way to do it, considering everybody has weak and strong spots. But they do have a weak OF situation and plenty of room, money and justification to spend big on one.

[WrigleyField 22]

Also it's probably more like $20m in surplus value needed over the life of the contract if that's the approach being taken as Valbuena isn't free an will continue to cost more himself.

 

Valbuena's skill set is precisely the type that doesn't result in inflated paychecks. So I'm not too worried about his escalating salary.

 

I'm not against a Castillo signing. But his Cuban league numbers aren't all that impressive and the scouting reports are contradictory. All I'm saying is that I want to know more about what type of player he is before I get upset that the Cubs are or aren't willing to offer a certain amount.

 

I am moderately interested in seeing how Renteria would try to cycle Castillo, Alcantara, Soler, Bryant, Baez, and Valbuena around in a lineup. But unfortunately there's not an easy platoon option that I see.

Bare minimum, Valbuena can make 22-25 over the next 5 years and I think that's being really conservative IMO (final arb year and 4 FA years). Plus the actual number thrown out for Castillo is 55. So a conservative figure is $30M extra over that time span. Plus even if Valbuena keeps providing surplus value, Alcontara could struggle, Soler could continue to get hurt, or Stanton could become available and drain us of surplus value guys.

 

I don't think you'd see any strict platoons either. You could easily move Alcontara around as required and just give guys normal rest, protect against injuries or play non-handedness matchups.

[SouthSideRyan]

Valbuena has 2 pre-FA years left.

[Vinestal]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 6m

Two folks involved in the Rusney Castillo bidding view the Cubs as the most likely team to land him. Just their educated guesses.

[WrigleyField 22]

Valbuena has 2 pre-FA years left.

I thought just one. Still, we're not looking at a 60M difference between him and Castillo and there are plenty of other players Castillo could "replace" based on trades, injury, or performance. Or Castillo himself could flop but if we can't take a risk on a27 year old FA we may never have a payroll above $80M again.

[ctcf]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 6m

Two folks involved in the Rusney Castillo bidding view the Cubs as the most likely team to land him. Just their educated guesses.

 

Hmmmmmmmmmm

[SouthSideRyan]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 6m

Two folks involved in the Rusney Castillo bidding view the Cubs as the most likely team to land him. Just their educated guesses.

 

I do not believe these folks

[ConstableRabbit]

Is there a deadline for this? Did he say he was about to decide?

[Vinestal]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 6m

Two folks involved in the Rusney Castillo bidding view the Cubs as the most likely team to land him. Just their educated guesses.

 

I do not believe these folks

Well it's pretty vague but its the first positive thing Ive heard toward the Cubs possibly landing him.

[davell]

It'll be interesting how any contract gets structured with him, since this season is basically over(and IS for us, the Red Sox, and Phillies). So this year almost definitely has to be structured to make much less, right? Or use a signing bonus to even things out? I'd think the Cubs would want an extra year possibly in a situation like this, unless they prefer going shorter term, like the A's did with Cespedes.

[Him]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 1m

 

Sources: #Tigers, #RedSox, #SFGiants still in mix for Rusney Castillo. #Cubs, #Yankees, #Phillies not expected to place high bid.

[Sammy Sofa]

http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/im_shocked.gif

[ctcf]

Sounds about right. Kinda surprised to see the Giants there, though.

[seanimal]

this is all over the place. rosenthall has cubs, yankees, and phillies out of it. olney has cubs as "favorites". gammons (lol, i know) said yesterday it's between the phillies and yankees. i'm inclined to believe rosenthall, but i don't think he was in on cano (the other deal done by jay-z's group) so who knows where he's getting that

[davell]

I'll believe Rosenthal and just hope he's wrong somehow.

[ctcf]

Yeah I've found Rosenthal is rarely wrong on this kind of stuff.

[jersey cubs fan]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 6m

Two folks involved in the Rusney Castillo bidding view the Cubs as the most likely team to land him. Just their educated guesses.

 

I do not believe these folks

Well it's pretty vague but its the first positive thing Ive heard toward the Cubs possibly landing him.

 

The first? Like, today? There have been plenty of positive things indicating the Cubs could possibly land him.

[Vinestal]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 6m

Two folks involved in the Rusney Castillo bidding view the Cubs as the most likely team to land him. Just their educated guesses.

 

I do not believe these folks

Well it's pretty vague but its the first positive thing Ive heard toward the Cubs possibly landing him.

 

The first? Like, today? There have been plenty of positive things indicating the Cubs could possibly land him.

Most things I've read just lumping them in with a bunch if other teams as interested, this is the first we've heard of them being most likely to land him or being the leaders for him.

[KrisBryantisaBeast]

The Red Sox would make the most sense to me at least so I'll believe Rosenthal on this one.

[Him]

Eno Sarris ‏@enosarris 37m

 

Rusney Castillo hit .332/.401/.545 with 16 HR & 22 sB in 2013. Huzzah! The Davenport Translation on that is .237/.276/.390 9HR/15SB. Egads!

 

Eno Sarris ‏@enosarris 26m

 

. @doctorjohnson8 Both Cespedes and Abreu have come short of their DT projections. (so yes worry about Rusney) http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-difficulty-in-projecting-jose-abreu/ …

[Guest]

I would think the Red Sox make the least sense. They just traded for Cespedes to play LF and they have at least one if not 2 top prospects that could see time in CF in JBJ and Betts. Talent is talent, that's why the Cubs would be after him with a potential Soler/Alcantara/Bryant OF less than a year away, but I don't think it's more obvious for the Red Sox to be interested than the alternatives.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I would think the Red Sox make the least sense. They just traded for Cespedes to play LF and they have at least one if not 2 top prospects that could see time in CF in JBJ and Betts. Talent is talent, that's why the Cubs would be after him with a potential Soler/Alcantara/Bryant OF less than a year away, but I don't think it's more obvious for the Red Sox to be interested than the alternatives.

 

But Castillo can also play 2B.

 

I think it's a slam dunk he ends up with the Tigers or Red Sox.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I think it's a slam dunk he ends up with the Tigers or Red Sox.

http://i.imgur.com/gKM8L4x.gif

[Guest]

I would think the Red Sox make the least sense. They just traded for Cespedes to play LF and they have at least one if not 2 top prospects that could see time in CF in JBJ and Betts. Talent is talent, that's why the Cubs would be after him with a potential Soler/Alcantara/Bryant OF less than a year away, but I don't think it's more obvious for the Red Sox to be interested than the alternatives.

 

But Castillo can also play 2B.

 

I think it's a slam dunk he ends up with the Tigers or Red Sox.

 

From what I understand, I don't really think he can at the MLB level, and that wouldn't make a difference in the case of the Red Sox(Pedroia, Betts).

[Guest]

Eno Sarris ‏@enosarris 37m

 

Rusney Castillo hit .332/.401/.545 with 16 HR & 22 sB in 2013. Huzzah! The Davenport Translation on that is .237/.276/.390 9HR/15SB. Egads!

 

Eno Sarris ‏@enosarris 26m

 

. @doctorjohnson8 Both Cespedes and Abreu have come short of their DT projections. (so yes worry about Rusney) http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-difficulty-in-projecting-jose-abreu/ …

 

 

i think that's poor wording. abreu is short of the davenport translations of his 2010 and 11 seasons in Cuba, but he actually is exceeding both his OLIVER and ZIPS projections for 2014.

 

the overall point stands, though.