The Cuban Defectors Thread

[Guest]

Yeah, who is Tanaka?

 

Masahiro Tanaka is a Japanese SP who wants to be posted this offseason. Raisin referenced him above with that WBC prospects list. I believe in another thread it was brought up that Badler sees him as a 2/3 starter.

 

EDIT: To answer my own question:

 

Tanaka

Ellsbury

 

Choo

Abreu

 

Cano

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, who is Tanaka?

 

Masahiro Tanaka is a Japanese SP who wants to be posted this offseason. Raisin referenced him above with that WBC prospects list. I believe in another thread it was brought up that Badler sees him as a 2/3 starter.

 

EDIT: To answer my own question:

 

Tanaka

Ellsbury

 

Choo

Abreu

 

Cano

 

Flip Ellsbury and Tanaka and Abreu and Choo and that's my list.

[Guest]

Yeah, who is Tanaka?

 

Masahiro Tanaka is a Japanese SP who wants to be posted this offseason. Raisin referenced him above with that WBC prospects list. I believe in another thread it was brought up that Badler sees him as a 2/3 starter.

 

Badler on Tanaka:

 

Tanaka started Japan’s first WBC game against Brazil in Fukuoka, but he was pulled quickly and was only used in brief relief appearances the rest of the tournament. He was scheduled to start the title game before Japan was eliminated in the semifinals by Puerto Rico.

 

Tanaka not only has the best stuff in Japan but also has been one of the country’s top pitchers in recent years. Tanaka, 24, posted a 1.87 ERA with 169 strikeouts and 19 walks in 173 innings last year for Rakuten in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. The year before, Tanaka led the league in ERA, finished second to Darvish in strikeouts and won the Sawamura Award, Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young. Tanaka’s contract takes him through the 2015 season, but he’s told Rakuten that he wants to pitch in the major leagues and it sounds like the team will oblige if he wants to go through the posting system.

 

At his best, Tanaka shows three plus or better pitches. In Fukuoka, his fastball ranged from 88-94 mph, but he was up to 91-96 mph in the second round in Tokyo. Tanaka’s velocity is above-average and he throws his fastball for strikes, but it’s the pitch that gives scouts pause on how he’d fare against major league hitters. He throws from a high three-quarters arm slot, but at 6-foot-2, 205 pounds he has a drop-and-drive delivery that causes him to sink on his backside and lose downhill plane on his fastball. That makes the pitch more hittable than the velocity itself would suggest, which is what happened against Brazil.

 

Tanaka has two plus secondary weapons, with his 85-87 mph splitter earning 70 grades at its best from some scouts. The splitter has late, sharp tumble and alleviates the fastball plane concerns from some scouts because of the action on the pitch. His 82-85 mph slider is another plus pitch with two-plane break. Tanaka also throws a 71-74 mph curveball early in the count as well. He wraps his wrist in the back of his arm action but he throws plenty of strikes with a repeatable delivery. Scouts highest on Tanaka think he has the talent of a potential No. 2 starter.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Ellsbury's injury history scares me way too much. Cano is going to want some ridiculous 10-year contract, so no thanks.

 

Abreu

Tanaka

Choo

[Guest]

How would you rank these potential offseason targets, especially keeping in mind that in all likelihood, you can afford to add 2 of them at the most? When I say rank, I mean which should the Cubs prioritize, given the likely cost to acquire.

 

Abreu

Cano

Choo

Ellsbury

Tanaka

 

Given the parameters you set:

 

Ellsbury

Tanaka

Choo

 

Cano (although this is the one I think is by FAR the least likely)

Abreu

 

 

I don't know enough about Tanaka to rank him.

 

EDIT: Welp, didn't realize there was a 3rd page. Updated list after reading about Tanaka.

Edited August 12, 2013 by David

[Sammy Sofa]

Ellsbury's injury history scares me way too much.

 

Wuss. 8.1 WAR in 2011 and a 5.1 WAR so far this year. His injury history is just going to make him more affordable. Me want.

[bukie]

Ellsbury

 

Tanaka

Abreu

 

Choo

 

Cano

[Guest]

I am worried about Ellsbury's injury history too but he should be the top target this offseason.

 

Ellsbury

Tanaka

Choo

 

Abreu

Cano

[Cubswin11]

Cano

Tanaka

Ellsbury

Abreu

[RammyFanny]

Online translator for the win:

One of the best Cuban baseball players of his generation, José Dariel Abreu, would have left the island and would be in any Caribbean nation, according to more veterans confirmed to El Nuevo Herald at least two of the agents in business with the Mayor of the West Indies players.

 

Although several reports placed it in Dominican Republic and others in Haiti, the truth is that there is still no verification about his whereabouts, but apparently would have taken contacts with agents that tend to represent Cuban players such as deinstitutionalization in search of free agency and a millionaire contract with the biggest teams.

 

"I can say that it is already outside Cuba, but those who called me to explore my availability [towards a future working relationship] not told me where he was, said one of the representatives."It is logical for this to happen in the early days, where there is much uncertainty. He is a very talented guy and is going to follow the trail of Yoenis lawns and Yasiel Puigs ".

 

It is likely that Abreu, known to whom in Cuba as "Pito" and plays first base, choose an agent in the next few days to begin the bureaucratic process that must be approved by the Office of the Commissioner of the greater and the call OFAC, the Office within the Treasury Department that oversees everything in monetary terms with the island and the enforcement of the economic embargo. "

 

According to another agent, Abreu would be a coveted piece or more which were lawns and Puig, who signed contracts of $36 and $42 million with the Oakland Athletics and the Los Angeles Dodgers, respectively. The cienfuego meets all the conditions to be unrestricted free agent to possess experience of five seasons in the national Series and 26 years of age.

 

"This boy has been followed you footprint for some time and all those who are in this business know what it is capable of doing with the bat," said the second representative. "He has excelled at international tournaments, in the past classic world was at the height of any major league baseball star. Has it all to change his life for good and in every way ".

 

Since he made his debut in the 2007-08 national series, Abreu has placed numbers of fright, but his best campaign was in 2010-11, when connected to.453 with scored 79, 93 batted and 33 home runs - then record for the country, despite losing 23 games due to bursitis. That race was elected the most valuable player becoming the cienfuego second in history that WINS, 31 years after the legendary Pedro José Rodríguez.

 

Surprised many that do not come with the Cuban team that participated in mid-July in a cap with a college selection for an injury.

 

"We are talking about a legitimate slugger", added the second agent."I remember that a group of colleagues we would gather to watch the games in Cuba in the Asian zone and one of the reasons in the world classic III was to see the home runs of Abreu. I don't think that Cuba is another player with his power. It won't be easy to replace it there, but for it opens a world of possibilities ".

http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2013/08/11/1542052/el-pelotero-cubano-abreu-abandona.html

[Sammy Sofa]

NUMBERS OF FRIGHT.

[TruffleShuffle]

lol, yoenis lawns

[davell]

Cespedes translates to lawns, I see.

[Guest]

Cespedes translates to lawns, I see.

yup

[davell]

Can one of you guys high on Ellsbury sell me on him? Because I see an oft-injured, speed guy who likely will start losing his main asset very soon. And the rest of his game doesn't translate to a corner.

[Guest]

ellsbury

tanaka

choo

abreu

 

i don't see theo/jed trading rizzo or changing his position, and cano is barely a free agent in my mind. i can't envision a scenario where he ends up on the cubs.

[Guest]

I should've posted back then when I did all the math, but even with injuries Ellsbury still averages out to be well over a 3 WAR player. His production has stayed at a high level throughout his career, so playing time is truly the only limiting factor there. His injuries will mean that he won't get the really long deal that typically comes to players with his potential(and carries the most risk), and the qualifying offer will scare his asking price down even further. Given how much the qualifying offer suppressed a guy like Bourn last year, I think there's room to hope that Ellsbury signs a deal that doesn't really have a ton of risk, but of course offers fantastic upside.

[davell]

If he takes a Bourn type deal, I'm happy. But with the lack of FA available, I think he'll get 6/100 at least.

[TruffleShuffle]

Can one of you guys high on Ellsbury sell me on him? Because I see an oft-injured, speed guy who likely will start losing his main asset very soon. And the rest of his game doesn't translate to a corner.

 

IMO the idea that speed guys become worthless more quickly is not really true. lou brock and ichiro and rickey henderson were very productive well into their 30s. i'm not saying to give ellsbury a 15 year contract, but if he were signed through age 36 or 37, i'd expect him to be productive for most of the contract length. he's got enough pop that he won't instantly lose all value when his foot speed starts to fall off.

[XZero771679666304]

Cano

Tanaka

Ellsbury

Abreu

 

Cano is awesome, but he's going to want an ARod type deal, and he's going to be 31 (meaning his best years will likely be behind him). I'd pass regardless, but the Yankees are probably going to take him off the market before anyone else can make a bid anyway.

[davell]

Cano

Tanaka

Ellsbury

Abreu

 

Cano is awesome, but he's going to want an ARod type deal, and he's going to be 31 (meaning his best years will likely be behind him). I'd pass regardless, but the Yankees are probably going to take him off the market before anyone else can make a bid anyway.

I put Cano 3rd, although I think he's tge longest shot of anyone. That said, if the Yanks were going to sign him longterm prior to him hitting FA, it'd have been done already. Cano winds up a Dodger, if I'm placing bets.

[XZero771679666304]

Cano

Tanaka

Ellsbury

Abreu

 

Cano is awesome, but he's going to want an ARod type deal, and he's going to be 31 (meaning his best years will likely be behind him). I'd pass regardless, but the Yankees are probably going to take him off the market before anyone else can make a bid anyway.

I put Cano 3rd, although I think he's tge longest shot of anyone. That said, if the Yanks were going to sign him longterm prior to him hitting FA, it'd have been done already. Cano winds up a Dodger, if I'm placing bets.

 

I wouldn't cry if the Cubs signed him, but I'd prioritize the others ahead of him. But you could be right, and the Yankees might be apprehensive to hand out any (more) mega deals to players in the second halves of their careers. Either way I'm not sure he has too many 7 WAR seasons left in him, if any.

[TruffleShuffle]

assuming that the dodgers sign kershaw, they'll have 5 players making over $20m per year, including two making over $25m per year. plus that ridiculous ethier contract of $18m per year. i know the dodgers have a lot of money but jeez, can they really sign cano and have something like $160m committed to 7 players every year through 2017?

[davell]

assuming that the dodgers sign kershaw, they'll have 5 players making over $20m per year, including two making over $25m per year. plus that ridiculous ethier contract of $18m per year. i know the dodgers have a lot of money but jeez, can they really sign cano and have something like $160m committed to 7 players every year through 2017?

I honestly don't think they'll flinch, even if it takes 10/250 to sign him. The George-less Yankees are going to take a permanent backseat to the Dodgers, in my opinion.

[XZero771679666304]

assuming that the dodgers sign kershaw, they'll have 5 players making over $20m per year, including two making over $25m per year. plus that ridiculous ethier contract of $18m per year. i know the dodgers have a lot of money but jeez, can they really sign cano and have something like $160m committed to 7 players every year through 2017?

I honestly don't think they'll flinch, even if it takes 10/250 to sign him. The George-less Yankees are going to take a permanent backseat to the Dodgers, in my opinion.

 

Yeah, they can do it, but they'd better win in the very near future if they do.