2013 Draft Day Thread + Cubs Picks Discussion

[jersey cubs fan]

I really like Andrew Mitchell and think he'd be a great reliever. I hate taking someone whose ceiling is reliever in the third round but it sounds like he'd be good value here.

 

I don't mind it at all in the 3rd.

[Guest]

So I fell asleep before our second pick, yeah I know but my kids were out and I took the chance to sleep, why are so many down on our second pick? He's a lefty that hits mid nineties, correct? Please tell me it isn't his college w and l record.

 

Dude on MLB Network was quoting W/L record to mock the pick. Might have been as bad as anything Gammons or Reynolds said.

 

I think people had more pie in the sky hopes this early. They hoped for a guy with superior talent who dropped due to signability or some other reason, or was a little higher on the boom/bust scale. You only have to look to last year's second round pick(Underwood) to see the very stark difference in the type of player they are.

 

That said, I learned several years ago(thanks Darwin Barney!) to not say dismissive things about a pick on draft day. There's just far too much that can and will change. Zastryzny is extremely unlikely to be the best pitcher on a MLB staff, but he's also a strike thrower with pitchability and stuff that seems pretty likely to be MLB caliber. Depending on the adjustments or improvements he's able to make, he could fall anywhere from the Raley/Rusin category on the low end, to something like Ted Lilly on the high end. There's nothing wrong with adding that guy, especially since he'll be set to move with a little speed in a system devoid of pitching, and even more especially since he doesn't appear to be a tough sign, giving them more flexibility as guys drop further towards round 10.

 

Also, before too much gets twisted, I've seen mention that Zastryzny can touch 95 with a 4 seamer, but he's more likely to sit 88-92 while constantly adding and subtracting to keep hitters off balance. He's not going to sit 93-94, or throw a "96 mph sinking fastball in relief" like BN's minor league guy said. That doesn't change my opinion of him, but it'd be terrible for the "silver lining" of his velocity to be a false hope for those who were already pretty skeptical.

[Elrhino]

So I fell asleep before our second pick, yeah I know but my kids were out and I took the chance to sleep, why are so many down on our second pick? He's a lefty that hits mid nineties, correct? Please tell me it isn't his college w and l record.

 

Reports say he might occasionally hit 94-95, but most of the time he's sitting in the high 80s. His K rates last year were decent, but not indicative of someone who's regularly touching mid 90s. His soph. year he had 76 Ks in 109 innings. He has a 4.51 FIP in the SEC. Ryan Eades picked by the Twins at #43 had a 3.89 FIP in the SEC. He also gave up a lot of HRs for someone picked that highly. This is also the first year he's been drafted and I don't think he's ever pitched in Cape Cod, so he's not exactly overflowing with pedigree. I know that 2nd round draft picks are a shot in the dark, but this was the 41st pick in the draft.

 

That said, I love his walk rates in college, and supposedly gets a lot of downward movement on the ball. Maybe Johnson thinks he can turn him ground ball machine sinker thrower.

Edited June 7, 2013 by Elrhino

[Guest]

If Jones/Serrano are near impossible signs I hope we take Denney, Mitchell or Boldt with the 3rd rounder today.

 

Unless a specific team has a really good read on Boldt, he too will slip to round 11 or later.

 

Also, remember the 3rd round is the last round where you get compensation for unsigned players. Starting in round 4, teams will pass over guys with some amount of risk of not signing.

[jersey cubs fan]

Depending on the adjustments or improvements he's able to make, he could fall anywhere from the Raley/Rusin category on the low end, to something like Ted Lilly on the high end.

 

The Ted Lilly comp is exactly what I've been hoping for with him. Although he was a 23rd round pick when he signed and Travis Wood was a 2nd himself.

[Guest]

So I fell asleep before our second pick, yeah I know but my kids were out and I took the chance to sleep, why are so many down on our second pick? He's a lefty that hits mid nineties, correct? Please tell me it isn't his college w and l record.

 

Reports say he might occasionally hit 94-95, but most of the time he's sitting in the high 80s. His K rates last year were decent, but not indicative of someone who's regularly touching mid 90s. His soph. year he had 76 Ks in 109 innings. He has a 4.51 FIP in the SEC. Ryan Eades picked by the Twins at #43 had a 3.89 FIP in the SEC. He also gave up a lot of HRs for someone picked that highly. This is also the first year he's been drafted and I don't think he's ever pitched in Cape Cod, so he's not exactly overflowing with pedigree. I know that 2nd round draft picks are a shot in the dark, but this was the 41st pick in the draft.

 

That said, I love his walk rates in college, and supposedly gets a lot of downward movement on the ball. Maybe Johnson thinks he can turn him ground ball machine sinker thrower.

 

FWIW, I have his FIP in SEC games at 3.59, but that's self-counted and calculated so there might be an error.

 

EDIT: That isn't right, I wasn't including HBP. 3.71 in SEC play, 3.85 overall, unless there's a different FIP constant I should be using for a college pitcher besides 3.20.

[davell]

I think we'll get a decent gauge of Bryant(and Appel's) signability, with the 1st two selections of this round. If Houston takes another college guy, my guess is we will too and neither team is expecting much in terms of a discount whatsoever. If Houston takes the tough sign type, I think we will as well. I doubt Boras would be tough with one of the top 2 and not both obviously. With slot value down to the 700's for this pick, its less risky to swing and miss(the 5% money comes close to recouping it), so I'm hopeful it's the tough sign HS kid for us in the 3rd.

[scarey]

Depending on the adjustments or improvements he's able to make, he could fall anywhere from the Raley/Rusin category on the low end, to something like Ted Lilly on the high end.

 

The Ted Lilly comp is exactly what I've been hoping for with him. Although he was a 23rd round pick when he signed and Travis Wood was a 2nd himself.

 

I thought Ted Lilly myself when I heard he likes to change speeds a lot. Minus the curve of course, but if he knows how to use his change up I think that would be even better than a plus curve.

[Guest]

I find the griping over Zastynzny amusing since his pro projections fits a similar profile as that of Kevin Ziomek, a very popular choice amongst fans for the Cubs second round pick (and someone who was coached by Derek Johnson for two years).

[Elrhino]

So I fell asleep before our second pick, yeah I know but my kids were out and I took the chance to sleep, why are so many down on our second pick? He's a lefty that hits mid nineties, correct? Please tell me it isn't his college w and l record.

 

Reports say he might occasionally hit 94-95, but most of the time he's sitting in the high 80s. His K rates last year were decent, but not indicative of someone who's regularly touching mid 90s. His soph. year he had 76 Ks in 109 innings. He has a 4.51 FIP in the SEC. Ryan Eades picked by the Twins at #43 had a 3.89 FIP in the SEC. He also gave up a lot of HRs for someone picked that highly. This is also the first year he's been drafted and I don't think he's ever pitched in Cape Cod, so he's not exactly overflowing with pedigree. I know that 2nd round draft picks are a shot in the dark, but this was the 41st pick in the draft.

 

That said, I love his walk rates in college, and supposedly gets a lot of downward movement on the ball. Maybe Johnson thinks he can turn him ground ball machine sinker thrower.

 

FWIW, I have his FIP in SEC games at 3.59, but that's self-counted and calculated so there might be an error.

 

 

I got it from here, but I have no idea how credible the site is.

 

http://www.collegesplits.com/cgi-bin/csPlayer.cgi?pl=zastrro42

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We'll have to wait and see what the players sign for, but it seems for now that for the second straight year, the Cubs have flipped the bird to the "target big overslots outside the first round" strategy. :good:

[craig]

...I think people had more pie in the sky hopes this early. They hoped for a guy with superior talent who dropped due to signability or some other reason, or was a little higher on the boom/bust scale. You only have to look to last year's second round pick(Underwood) to see the very stark difference in the type of player they are.

 

That said, I learned several years ago(thanks Darwin Barney!) to not say dismissive things about a pick on draft day. There's just far too much that can and will change. Zastryzny is extremely unlikely to be the best pitcher on a MLB staff, but he's also a strike thrower with pitchability and stuff that seems pretty likely to be MLB caliber. Depending on the adjustments or improvements he's able to make, he could fall anywhere from the Raley/Rusin category on the low end, to something like Ted Lilly on the high end. There's nothing wrong with adding that guy, especially since he'll be set to move with a little speed in a system devoid of pitching, and even more especially since he doesn't appear to be a tough sign, giving them more flexibility as guys drop further towards round 10.

 

Also, before too much gets twisted, I've seen mention that Zastryzny can touch 95 with a 4 seamer, but he's more likely to sit 88-92 while constantly adding and subtracting to keep hitters off balance. He's not going to sit 93-94, or throw a "96 mph sinking fastball in relief" like BN's minor league guy said. That doesn't change my opinion of him, but it'd be terrible for the "silver lining" of his velocity to be a false hope for those who were already pretty skeptical.

 

Great post, I agree with absolutely everything you wrote here. The 95 stuff, that's fine and good, and hopefully it will mean that he's got a very useful/effective fastball. But every half-decent prospect has touched 95 with a straight-ball. If you're working velocity is 88-92, with 2-seamers that do something useful, of course you can hit 95 with a straight 4-seamer. So I completely agree that we shouldn't get it in our head that he's a power lefty, and then be disappointed and fault the scouts when in fact he's anything but that.

 

I also agree that it seemed a disappointing pick. I always figure that at 41, there should be somebody on the top-25 of your board who slipped, because you value players differently, or for signability, or whatever. Last year, for example, Johnson came across as a guy who was scouted as a mid-first round talent..... if he could stay healthy. Underwood had 1st round upside.... if he could put it together. So Z certainly doesn't come across as having that kind of high talent.

 

But this Cub scouting system has a bunch of intelligent, thoughtful guys. I trust they know what they're doing and made a thoughtful pick here. Z is a fairly young junior (just turned 21 at end of March). Perhaps some of the velocity pickup is real, not that rare when a kid is 20/21, or mechanical. He sounds like a smart guy, and most importantly he throws strikes, so I assume he'll learn and adapt and perhaps get the best out of his abilities. The general scouting seems to be that he doesn't have much of a breaking ball. I assume the Cubs think the potential for a useful breaking ball is there, and I assume as with any lefty that he'll need to learn a cutter.

 

The ratio of stars selected at 41 is super small. If they can get stronger-armed version of Travis Wood, it can be a good-value pick.

 

Heh, in other words I'm an optimist, I trust that the thinking is sound, and I assume the guy has a chance to be a good solid major-league pitcher.

[Guest]

It'll also be interesting to see when the Cubs start picking cheap college seniors today. Last year, a lot of teams started in round 6 but the Cubs didn't start until round 8 (taking Trey Lang in the 6th round and Stephen Bruno in 7th).

[mul21]

Obviously SP are generally much more valuable, but could the 2nd rounder potentially be a guy who they've targeted as a pen arm? With the reports of some pretty good high end velocity, harnessing that with a solid change would be a recipe for a very good late inning/setup guy. Probably not the case, but with his profile and the possibility of it being an under slot type pick, I thought it might be a thought to consider.

[jersey cubs fan]

Obviously SP are generally much more valuable, but could the 2nd rounder potentially be a guy who they've targeted as a pen arm? With the reports of some pretty good high end velocity, harnessing that with a solid change would be a recipe for a very good late inning/setup guy. Probably not the case, but with his profile and the possibility of it being an under slot type pick, I thought it might be a thought to consider.

 

I think people have been trying to downplay reports of his "high end velocity".

 

I hope they didn't target him as a pen arm. I would hope they would try and see if he can be a starter and then shift him to the pen if that doesn't work out.

[Guest]

Obviously SP are generally much more valuable, but could the 2nd rounder potentially be a guy who they've targeted as a pen arm? With the reports of some pretty good high end velocity, harnessing that with a solid change would be a recipe for a very good late inning/setup guy. Probably not the case, but with his profile and the possibility of it being an under slot type pick, I thought it might be a thought to consider.

 

The one thing I did like about BN's write up on the pick was the comparison to Russell. Russell was not a very popular pick because he was a meh starter at Texas(granted, he was also a 14th rounder). He didn't have much velocity(84-88 at Texas, 87-90 now as a reliever) but a good changeup, and the results reflected that. He's a great example of a guy who's a much different pitcher now due to the circumstances of his development. Zastryzny certainly could follow a similar path, and I'm sure that was considered when drafting him, but I don't think that's the goal for him right now.

[craig]

Obviously SP are generally much more valuable, but could the 2nd rounder potentially be a guy who they've targeted as a pen arm? With the reports of some pretty good high end velocity, harnessing that with a solid change would be a recipe for a very good late inning/setup guy. Probably not the case, but with his profile and the possibility of it being an under slot type pick, I thought it might be a thought to consider.

 

Relief is always a fallback. But the Cubs definitely drafted him with the intent that he'll be a quality starter. They see him as a high floor with a good ceiling. Plus change, plus fastball, good control, the ceiling will depend on integrating the cutter and developing the breaking ball.

[illiniguy]

So I fell asleep before our second pick, yeah I know but my kids were out and I took the chance to sleep, why are so many down on our second pick? He's a lefty that hits mid nineties, correct? Please tell me it isn't his college w and l record.

 

Dude on MLB Network was quoting W/L record to mock the pick. Might have been as bad as anything Gammons or Reynolds said.

That was Greg Amsinger, huge Cardinal Homer. Always mocks us, totally unprofessional.

[ctcf]

Denney or Wahl, please.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I want Wahl.

[mul21]

So I fell asleep before our second pick, yeah I know but my kids were out and I took the chance to sleep, why are so many down on our second pick? He's a lefty that hits mid nineties, correct? Please tell me it isn't his college w and l record.

 

Dude on MLB Network was quoting W/L record to mock the pick. Might have been as bad as anything Gammons or Reynolds said.

That was Greg Amsinger, huge Cardinal Homer. Always mocks us, totally unprofessional.

 

He's a regular guest on one of the sports talk shows in STL. It amazing how douchey he is, even for a Cards homer. He really is completely unprofessional, which seems to be a theme for those out of TBFIB. The inferiority complex in general towards Chicago is spectacular to watch, especially when they criticize people from KC for the same thing.

[craig]

... [Russell is] a great example of a guy who's a much different pitcher now due to the circumstances of his development. Zastryzny certainly could follow a similar path, and I'm sure that was considered when drafting him, but I don't think that's the goal for him right now.

 

Agree. There are some college pitchers who are finished, and won't change. But I think it's a myth to assume that a 20-year-old college pick won't change in the pros.

*The fastball can change. Lots get a little stronger at ages 21-22-23; improve their mechanics/delivery a little; and end with more velocity.

*The breaking ball can change, a lot. Lots are still tinkering with their breaking ball in college without settling into the best or having done so with consistency. Think of Samardzija, and how many iterations of breaking ball he's gone through since he was in college.

*The changeup can change. For Z that sounds like it's already an advanced plus pitch. But for a lot of college pitchers, the change is kind of an inconsistent underused show-me pitch. In the pros, that often changes.

*The cutter can change. For most college pitchers, the cutter is a "tinker on the side" pitch, but hasn't been optimized into a crucial game-usage pitch; in the pros that can often become an absolutely integral tool. For attacking opposite-side hitters, for throwing strikes and controlling the count, for getting contact outs.

[BeerHere]

... [Russell is] a great example of a guy who's a much different pitcher now due to the circumstances of his development. Zastryzny certainly could follow a similar path, and I'm sure that was considered when drafting him, but I don't think that's the goal for him right now.

 

Agree. There are some college pitchers who are finished, and won't change. But I think it's a myth to assume that a 20-year-old college pick won't change in the pros.

*The fastball can change. Lots get a little stronger at ages 21-22-23; improve their mechanics/delivery a little; and end with more velocity.

*The breaking ball can change, a lot. Lots are still tinkering with their breaking ball in college without settling into the best or having done so with consistency. Think of Samardzija, and how many iterations of breaking ball he's gone through since he was in college.

*The changeup can change. For Z that sounds like it's already an advanced plus pitch. But for a lot of college pitchers, the change is kind of an inconsistent underused show-me pitch. In the pros, that often changes.

*The cutter can change. For most college pitchers, the cutter is a "tinker on the side" pitch, but hasn't been optimized into a crucial game-usage pitch; in the pros that can often become an absolutely integral tool. For attacking opposite-side hitters, for throwing strikes and controlling the count, for getting contact outs.

Well said.

[imb]

So I fell asleep before our second pick, yeah I know but my kids were out and I took the chance to sleep, why are so many down on our second pick? He's a lefty that hits mid nineties, correct? Please tell me it isn't his college w and l record.

 

Dude on MLB Network was quoting W/L record to mock the pick. Might have been as bad as anything Gammons or Reynolds said.

That was Greg Amsinger, huge Cardinal Homer. Always mocks us, totally unprofessional.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qffVgU5QaME

 

lmao what a buffoon

[illiniguy]

So I fell asleep before our second pick, yeah I know but my kids were out and I took the chance to sleep, why are so many down on our second pick? He's a lefty that hits mid nineties, correct? Please tell me it isn't his college w and l record.

 

Dude on MLB Network was quoting W/L record to mock the pick. Might have been as bad as anything Gammons or Reynolds said.

That was Greg Amsinger, huge Cardinal Homer. Always mocks us, totally unprofessional.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qffVgU5QaME

 

lmao what a buffoon

He was making fun of Carlos Marmol one night about not being able to throw strikes. Took it into a personal, attacking level. Pleasac and Reynolds were defending Carlos and you could tell they thought it wasn't at all cool.