Castro

[UK1679666180]

Kolten Wong is 6.5 months younger than Castro, can't play SS and hit like Josh Vitters at the major league level this season.

 

 

Yes, what you likely seen from Castro his 1st 3 years is his likely ceiling.

 

This is [expletive] ridiculous.

 

What is he going to develop 20+ Hrs, Obp above .370. Hes only 22 but he has well over 2000 PAs. He won't be as bad as last year but to expect above what he did before last year is foolish at this point. Hope next year, I expect more. If he repeats 13', his value will be close to zero.

[jersey cubs fan]

Kolten Wong is 6.5 months younger than Castro, can't play SS and hit like Josh Vitters at the major league level this season.

 

 

Yes, what you likely seen from Castro his 1st 3 years is his likely ceiling.

 

This is [expletive] ridiculous.

 

What is he going to develop 20+ Hrs, Obp above .370. Hes only 22 but he has well over 2000 PAs. He won't be as bad as last year but to expect above what he did before last year is foolish at this point. Hope next year, I expect more. If he repeats 13', his value will be close to zero.

 

Well, he could OBP .350 and hit 18 HR and be better than he was prior to last year.

[UK1679666180]

Kolten Wong is 6.5 months younger than Castro, can't play SS and hit like Josh Vitters at the major league level this season.

 

 

Yes, what you likely seen from Castro his 1st 3 years is his likely ceiling.

 

This is [expletive] ridiculous.

 

What is he going to develop 20+ Hrs, Obp above .370. Hes only 22 but he has well over 2000 PAs. He won't be as bad as last year but to expect above what he did before last year is foolish at this point. Hope next year, I expect more. If he repeats 13', his value will be close to zero.

 

Well, he could OBP .350 and hit 18 HR and be better than he was prior to last year.

 

He could, although I think the odds of him repeating last year would be just as likely as him having a great year.

[SouthSideRyan]

Kolten Wong is 6.5 months younger than Castro, can't play SS and hit like Josh Vitters at the major league level this season.

 

 

Yes, what you likely seen from Castro his 1st 3 years is his likely ceiling.

 

This is [expletive] ridiculous.

 

What is he going to develop 20+ Hrs, Obp above .370. Hes only 22 but he has well over 2000 PAs. He won't be as bad as last year but to expect above what he did before last year is foolish at this point. Hope next year, I expect more. If he repeats 13', his value will be close to zero.

 

It's foolish to consider anyone to be topped out at the age of 22.

[UK1679666180]

Kolten Wong is 6.5 months younger than Castro, can't play SS and hit like Josh Vitters at the major league level this season.

 

 

Yes, what you likely seen from Castro his 1st 3 years is his likely ceiling.

 

This is [expletive] ridiculous.

 

What is he going to develop 20+ Hrs, Obp above .370. Hes only 22 but he has well over 2000 PAs. He won't be as bad as last year but to expect above what he did before last year is foolish at this point. Hope next year, I expect more. If he repeats 13', his value will be close to zero.

 

It's foolish to consider anyone to be topped out at the age of 22.

 

Not with the type of regression and lack of offensive discipline he has. Plus, with this clown ownership they have, if they keep gutting payroll, that 10 mil or so becomes that much more valuable if they want to mirror TB.

 

Considering how poorly they have handled the finances, I doubt we see increasing payrolls anytime soon beyond 85 mil.

[Guest]

michaelscottnogodno.gif

[fromthestretch]

I will not buy season tickets for a team that acquires Pete Kozma on purpose.

 

As if it's better to somehow acquire him accidentally?

[Guest]

Hey, if the Nats can accidentally acquire David dejesus, we can certainly accidentally acquire Kozma

[SouthSideRyan]

I will not buy season tickets for a team that acquires Pete Kozma on purpose.

 

As if it's better to somehow acquire him accidentally?

 

Yes, procedural incompetence > stupidity

[imb]

Kolten Wong is 6.5 months younger than Castro, can't play SS and hit like Josh Vitters at the major league level this season.

 

 

Yes, what you likely seen from Castro his 1st 3 years is his likely ceiling.

 

This is [expletive] ridiculous.

 

What is he going to develop 20+ Hrs, Obp above .370. Hes only 22 but he has well over 2000 PAs. He won't be as bad as last year but to expect above what he did before last year is foolish at this point. Hope next year, I expect more. If he repeats 13', his value will be close to zero.

 

It's foolish to consider anyone to be topped out at the age of 22.

 

why do you think this

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Because the list of people who have never improved from the age of 22 is tiny?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Because the list of people who have never improved from the age of 22 is tiny?

 

It's actually pretty huge, it's just that most of them aren't good enough to make it to the majors before that happens so we don't notice when they just stop getting better, a la Felix Pie.

[Guest]

Because the list of people who have never improved from the age of 22 is tiny?

 

It's actually pretty huge, it's just that most of them aren't good enough to make it to the majors before that happens so we don't notice when they just stop getting better, a la Felix Pie.

 

 

Felix Pie was in the majors this season, but your point stands. That is no guarantee players improve just because they are 22. I don't see many signs Castro is going to get better.

[Sammy Sofa]

I think there's obviously a really, really good chance that he's better than this past season, but the problem is that this past season was SO bad for such a sustained that there's still tons of room for him to technically be better and still suck or be massive disappointment.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think there's obviously a really, really good chance that he's better than this past season, but the problem is that this past season was SO bad for such a sustained that there's still tons of room for him to technically be better and still suck or be massive disappointment.

 

I keep wondering if maybe he's a 2-win player who had a fluky BABIP in 2011 and a fluky-UZR in 2012 (or whatever defensive stat is used by fWAR).

[imb]

I'm not tying my horse to either scenario, I think it's possible he gets it together and improves beyond what he was this season, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he actually just sucks.

 

He's striking out more, walking less, hitting for less power, making worse contact, running the bases worse, playing worse defense ... I mean, maybe he figures it out, but given that profile, being like "well of course he'll get better, he's only 23" sounds kind of stupid. Nevermind the fact that he could still "get better" and not be of any use.

[Guest]

wOBA of players who got 500 PA at age 20 like Castro:

 

Player              Age 22    Age 24   Age 26    Career
Alex Rodriguez       .368      .395     .425      .400
Ken Griffey Jr.      .399      .430     .373      .387
Edgar Renteria       .314      .337     .349      .327
Roberto Alomar       .326      .379     .369      .359
Adrian Beltre        .311      .305     .308      .348
Ivan Rodriguez       .319      .338     .365      .344
Andruw Jones         .365      .328     .362      .352
AVERAGE              .343      .359     .364      .360

Starlin Castro       .323

[Hairyducked Idiot]

wOBA of players who got 500 PA at age 20 like Castro:

 

OK, now do it for players who got 500 PA at age 20 then posted a .280 wOBA at age 23. If that's too specific, you can goose the parameters a bit.

[SouthSideRyan]

Because the list of people who have never improved from the age of 22 is tiny?

 

It's actually pretty huge, it's just that most of them aren't good enough to make it to the majors before that happens so we don't notice when they just stop getting better, a la Felix Pie.

 

 

Felix Pie was in the majors this season, but your point stands. That is no guarantee players improve just because they are 22. I don't see many signs Castro is going to get better.

 

Ok, the list of people who have had good seasons and then stopped progressing at 22 is tiny?

[Guest]

wOBA of players who got 500 PA at age 20 like Castro:

 

OK, now do it for players who got 500 PA at age 20 then posted a .280 wOBA at age 23. If that's too specific, you can goose the parameters a bit.

 

It's almost as if that's an outlier that may have little predictive power!

 

But to cut through this terrible attempt to back into logic and get to the point, Castro is the very rare player who has the talent to produce from an incredibly young age, and therefore nonsense about "lots of players never improve after 22 because they aren't good enough!" doesn't apply, as the chart above indicates.

 

That said, last season still happened, and it's not impossible that Castro is actually terrible or not good or whatever qualifier you want. That doesn't mean that that argument shouldn't face an incredible amount of skepticism since it flies in the face of thousands of MLB plate appearances from Castro, the standard of how players mature with age, and every comp of Castro's that we can find that has shown what he has shown. Believe whatever you want, I'll be the crazy one that thinks that Castro is still likely to improve after age 23.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

wOBA of players who got 500 PA at age 20 like Castro:

 

Player              Age 23  
Alex Rodriguez       .394
Ken Griffey Jr.      .391 
Edgar Renteria       .337 
Roberto Alomar       .353
Adrian Beltre        .313
Ivan Rodriguez       .338 
Andruw Jones         .387 
AVERAGE              .359

Starlin Castro       .280

 

When you include the most recent, relevant information, it's pretty clear that Castro is on a completely different career path than those players. The only glimmer of hope on that list is Beltre, whose skill set and scouting profile was the complete opposite of Castro. And Beltre's .313 came attached to a 4-win season because of super-elite defense.

[imb]

wOBA of players who got 500 PA at age 20 like Castro:

 

OK, now do it for players who got 500 PA at age 20 then posted a .280 wOBA at age 23. If that's too specific, you can goose the parameters a bit.

 

It's almost as if that's an outlier that may have little predictive power!

 

But to cut through this terrible attempt to back into logic and get to the point, Castro is the very rare player who has the talent to produce from an incredibly young age, and therefore nonsense about "lots of players never improve after 22 because they aren't good enough!" doesn't apply, as the chart above indicates.

 

That said, last season still happened, and it's not impossible that Castro is actually terrible or not good or whatever qualifier you want. That doesn't mean that that argument shouldn't face an incredible amount of skepticism since it flies in the face of thousands of MLB plate appearances from Castro, the standard of how players mature with age, and every comp of Castro's that we can find that has shown what he has shown. Believe whatever you want, I'll be the crazy one that thinks that Castro is still likely to improve after age 23.

 

Is he going to improve on his age 23 season or improve on his age 21 season? He's a guy that gets value from making a lot of contact (been worse at this every season) and being able to pass at the league's toughest position (he's been passable at this one year out of four.)

 

Like I said, there's enough good and bad history that either outcome is possible, but going "hey, look at ARod and Ken Griffey Jr at the same age" means about nothing to me. Castro is certainly not any of the guys on that list.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Believe whatever you want, I'll be the crazy one that thinks that Castro is still likely to improve after age 23.

 

Person A: "Castro is prohibitively likely to improve. Essentially all 22-year-olds do."

Person B: "Well, that's not totally true. There's a bit of survivorship bias there."

Person C: *implies that you think Castro isn't likely to improve*

 

If you're asking me if I think there's a 50.1% chance or better that Castro posts a .281 wOBA or better for the remainder of his career, then I'll go with "yes."

[Gilby]

I'm not tying my horse to either scenario, I think it's possible he gets it together and improves beyond what he was this season, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he actually just sucks.

 

He's striking out more, walking less, hitting for less power, making worse contact, running the bases worse, playing worse defense ... I mean, maybe he figures it out, but given that profile, being like "well of course he'll get better, he's only 23" sounds kind of stupid. Nevermind the fact that he could still "get better" and not be of any use.

 

I'm not sure if you meant it this way, but it's not as if his K's, BB's, power, and defense have all been getting worse since his first season. The K's and BB's, prior to this season had been fairly constant, the power was increasing, and he's not the terrible defender he's made out to be. Yeah, this past season was bad in all of those categories except defense I guess, but we do have information he was trying to change his approach. It's not quite as convenient as fixing a bad season by getting eye surgery, but it is something.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Like I said, there's enough good and bad history that either outcome is possible, but going "hey, look at ARod and Ken Griffey Jr at the same age" means about nothing to me. Castro is certainly not any of the guys on that list.

 

What's the ratio of good to bad history?