Castro

[abuck1220]

though it is kind of crazy to think of how "easy" it should be for him to get to 2,500 career hits.

[Sammy Sofa]

Like I said, I'd be happy if that was what he maintained going forward, but come on, how many of us were looking at that as effectively being his ceiling? Yes, I get that he's so young, but this is, again, going on four seasons now where his "best" seems to result in some VERY similar numbers. What are the odds a player just suddenly jumps past something like that when they've been going along just showing minimal improvement for so long?

 

At a quick glance, his examples are a bunch of guys who performed similarly and mostly hadn't hit their ceilings at his age...

 

They performed similarly in that they effectively put up the same line for multiple seasons when they were "on?"

 

Look, I'm not trying to argue that I think he sucks or anything; I WANT to be convinced that he's likely to get better, or at the very least be more consistent.

[XZero771679666304]

Like I said, I'd be happy if that was what he maintained going forward, but come on, how many of us were looking at that as effectively being his ceiling? Yes, I get that he's so young, but this is, again, going on four seasons now where his "best" seems to result in some VERY similar numbers. What are the odds a player just suddenly jumps past something like that when they've been going along just showing minimal improvement for so long?

 

At a quick glance, his examples are a bunch of guys who performed similarly and mostly hadn't hit their ceilings at his age...

 

They performed similarly in that they effectively put up the same line for multiple seasons when they were "on?"

 

Look, I'm not trying to argue that I think he sucks or anything; I WANT to be convinced that he's likely to get better, or at the very least be more consistent.

 

I've adjusted my expectations down for Castro from where they were in 2010/11, but I still see a brighter future for him than where he is at now.

 

He's never going to hit for the same power, but I think he could have a similar career trajectory (hitting-wise) as a guy like Adrian Beltre. He came up young, had initial success, regressed for a few years before breaking back out (if you consider his re-regression to be a product of being in Safeco in the middle of an bad lineup). He's never have a 10 WAR season like Beltre, but I can easily see Castro settling in as a consistent 4-5 WAR player.

[Guest]

Yes, Beltre is about the best single player comparison you can make at the moment. He's a borderline HOF which is great, but it's also worth noting that his power(and therefore offensive production) came very late in his prime, and that he relied on his defensive value to be good until that came around. I'm not sure if Castro will have that same luxury, but playing SS instead of 3B is also a nice boost, and of course he won't necessarily mirror Beltre's career exactly.

[Sammy Sofa]

Works for me.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Joe Sheehan weighs in via his latest newsletter:

 

Cubs 7, Cardinals 0

 

Castro 4 0 0 0

 

One of the storylines this year is the number of young players who have emerged as stars -- Matt Harvey, Yasiel Puig, Manny Machado, etc. Less talked about are the number of young players who have taken huge steps backwards. For me, foremost among this group is Starlin Castro, who has been a replacement-level player at 23 after three seasons that seems to set him on a path to being no worse than a Hall of Very Good-type of player. Never the most patient hitter, Castro is on his way to a career worst 3.6% walk rate and a a 5-1 K/BB. You can live with those numbers in a player who hits for power, but Castro has 35 extra-base hits, seven homers, a .347 SLG and a .103 ISO. He's regressed in the field as well, after making strides as a defender in 2012. Castro has been a complete disaster.

 

Normally, the diagnosis is more patience, but in Castro's case, I don't think know if that's automatically the solution. He's certainly not a patient hitter, but he's also not a true hacker, and he's actually swinging at fewer pitches this year than in past seasons. It is instructive to look at the players with similar contact rates (81.3%) to Castro. Here's everyone between 81.0% and 81.9%:

 

Con% ISO

Vernon Wells 81.1 .131

Jason Kipnis 81.2 .190

Matt Holliday 81.2 .173

Justin Morneau 81.2 .158

Manny Machado 81.3 .156

Starlin Castro 81.3 .103

Miguel Cabrera 81.3 .319

Adrian Gonzalez 81.7 .162

Chris Denorfia 81.7 .122

 

The players who typically miss on just shy of 20% of their swings are hitting for power when they connect. The only players anywhere near Castro on this list are Vernon Wells -- always someone you want to be compared to -- and the PETCO-bound Chris Denorfia. Both are backup outfielders who play too much. Castro is, when he swings, trading contact for power and ending up with nothing. I suspect this is reparable in some way; whether by improved concentration or a shorter stroke or enhancing Castro's vision, I don't know. What I do know is that this is the problem that's turned a potential 2500-hit shortstop into one of the worst regulars in MLB.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

[expletive] me.

[Sammy Sofa]

I thought that that article would be the most depressing Castro-related news today, but then I had the pleasure of being at today's game.

[Guest]

starting to think that Castro's ceiling has been hit already. at best he's a 3-3.5-ish WAR player, which is pretty good. he's never going to hit for home run power, and I don't really know where the idea that he would came from. granted, yes, he's hit rock bottom as far as his trade value goes and we might benefit most from giving him another season to replicate his 3 WAR seasons in 2014 so as to boost his value going forward. If he can do that year-in year-out, he'll be well worth his deal for any team wanting to trade for him.

 

But the Baez/Bryant train is coming and if Castro isn't going to be a superstar, he's better moved to the right side. maybe it's the pressure on him, who knows? maybe at second and moved down in the order behind thumpers like Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, and Soler, real run producers, he'll flourish.

[Sammy Sofa]

Maybe he's just not the type of player that jives with the FO's preferred approach. Maybe they just need to let him go back to being the more aggressive hitter he was before instead of trying to make him more patient.

[Guest]

Maybe he's just not the type of player that jives with the FO's preferred approach. Maybe they just need to let him go back to being the more aggressive hitter he was before instead of trying to make him more patient.

 

and that .750 OPS guy would be pretty nice if he's not supposed to be a centerpiece player. i'm ok with letting go back.

[Sammy Sofa]

Maybe he's just not the type of player that jives with the FO's preferred approach. Maybe they just need to let him go back to being the more aggressive hitter he was before instead of trying to make him more patient.

 

and that .750 OPS guy would be pretty nice if he's not supposed to be a centerpiece player. i'm ok with letting go back.

 

Yeah, still a valuable player whether they keep or opt to trade him since he has such a reasonable contract. Anything to stop this slide into baseball-Ebola.

[Guest]

Maybe the patience and power will come naturally with time instead of him forcing it. Even if it doesn't, he's still a nice piece on the middle infield if there isn't a clear upgrade in the minors.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Does anybody have more than my vague memories about an article or a series of sabermetric articles back in the early 2000s that said something to the effect of regression to the mean being less likely when the divergence from previously established levels was particularly extreme?

[MWV]

I sometimes wonder if Castro is putting too much pressure on himself to live up to his extension and be a "cornerstone" player. I think back to the Joakim Noah situation in 2012.

I don't know. I'm beside myself with Castro this season. I find myself grasping at any available rationalization in hope of refuting the growing sense that he just isn't any good.

[Guest]

Does anybody have more than my vague memories about an article or a series of sabermetric articles back in the early 2000s that said something to the effect of regression to the mean being less likely when the divergence from previously established levels was particularly extreme?

 

No. But if Castro is indeed attempting to heed the wishes of the front office in altering his approach, such divergence would be artificial.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Castro is now averaging 1.9 fWAR per 600 PAs for his career.

[RynoRules]

I like the way Dale handled his gaffe yesterday. Hold him accountable and then state support for him going fwd. He's had an awful year. Hopefully it's a blip and due to the change in approach scenario you guys have been discussing.

 

It's also not too late to turn into a "meh" year by playing well during the last 40 days.

[Sammy Sofa]

I like the way Dale handled his gaffe yesterday. Hold him accountable and then state support for him going fwd. He's had an awful year. Hopefully it's a blip and due to the change in approach scenario you guys have been discussing.

 

It's also not too late to turn into a "meh" year by playing well during the last 40 days.

 

Well, he did that last year with his awesome .311 .368 .475 .844 line in the final month after the previous three months were pretty underwhelming, but right now that last month is looking like it might be the epitome of false hope.

[imb]

threatening to end the year with an ops in the 500s.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

threatening to end the year with an ops in the 500s.

 

In like two years he'll be somebody else's Ian Stewart.

[Sammy Sofa]

threatening to end the year with an ops in the 500s.

 

In like two years he'll be somebody else's Ian Stewart.

 

http://i.minus.com/ibrvWgIuLwLagI.gif

[dcvalpo]

threatening to end the year with an ops in the 500s.

 

In like two years he'll be somebody else's Ian Stewart.

 

http://i42.tinypic.com/2lmrifp.jpg

[sneakypower]

Tyrant[/url]"]Is there any recent history of guys like Castro starting off strong, having a huge setback like this season and then bouncing back? His age makes him a bit tougher to compare to others, I realize.

i don't know about setbacks specifically, but Desmond's age 24-25 seasons and Castro's age 22-23 seasons are remarkably similar

 

of course, now Desmond ('12-'13: 9 WAR) is one of the best SS in baseball, so i guess anything's possible

[Guest]

i don't get it, he looks the part right up until he bounces out to third or waves at a changeup a foot off the plate.