First To Get Promoted?

[CubsWin]

Who do you think will be the first meaningful Cubs prospect to be promoted this season due to performance and not injury? (I'm discounting AAA shuttle players like Sweeney or Lillibridge, organizational filler and relievers that are old for their level, etc.)

 

There are normally corresponding promotions, so it likely won't be just one guy and it likely won't be for a month yet, but there are some pretty interesting story lines emerging.

 

Matt Szczur will be 24 in July. He's repeating AA and has thus far shown the ability to take a walk, hit for a decent average and with some power.

 

Jae-Hoon Ha will be 22 all season and is also repeating AA. He's also shown the growth in his approach the Cubs are looking for (13 BB/19 K) and would want to reward.

 

John Andreoli turns 23 June 9th and is repeating High-A. With an April line of .319/.427/.385, he could fill the void left by Szczur or Ha.

 

A chain reaction of promotions could happen if Pierce Johnson, Zach Cates and Eric Jokisch keep doing what they're doing. Jokisch, who will turn 24 nine days after Szczur, is repeating AA where he did well last year. Things appear to have finally clicked for Zach Cates since coming over in the Rizzo deal. He'll be 23 all season and this is his 2nd go around at High-A Daytona. Johnson turns 22 in 9 days and is showing early dominance in Low-A.

 

Stephen Bruno will be age appropriate for Daytona all season and skipped Low-A on his way there, so it is less likely the Cubs would move him up early in the season, but if he keeps producing at his present clip (.354/.432/.462), the front office may have no choice. The infield is fairly set in Tennessee, but with Bruno's versatility, that may not matter.

 

Who do you predict will be the first?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I'll say Pierce. No issues with anyone blocking him, and he's been dominant since the middle of his second start.

 

Badler said he was advanced enough to the start the season there anyway.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Probably Brett Jackson or Logan Watkins, simply because they're already on the 40 man. I know Sczcur's on the roster, but as well as he's done and as much as Brett's struggled, they'll likely give Brett at least one more crack at the big league level before passing him over, unless he's included in a trade between now and when that time comes.

 

I really doubt that any starting pitching prospect is brought up anytime soon. Whether it's due tom injury or performance, Even if we trade 2 and shut down/DL 1-2 more to injury, we're likely to replace them with filler like Raley, Rusin, or Struck rather than roster someone else.

 

If you mean simply between minor league levels, I'm going to go with Rock Shoulders. Not only is he crushing the ball, but taking plenty of walks as well. Also, Tennessee really has no meaningful 1st baseman.

[illiniguy]

Probably Brett Jackson or Logan Watkins, simply because they're already on the 40 man. I know Sczcur's on the roster, but as well as he's done and as much as Brett's struggled, they'll likely give Brett at least one more crack at the big league level before passing him over, unless he's included in a trade between now and when that time comes.

 

I really doubt that any starting pitching prospect is brought up anytime soon. Whether it's due tom injury or performance, Even if we trade 2 and shut down/DL 1-2 more to injury, we're likely to replace them with filler like Raley, Rusin, or Struck rather than roster someone else.

 

If you mean simply between minor league levels, I'm going to go with Rock Shoulders. Not only is he crushing the ball, but taking plenty of walks as well. Also, Tennessee really has no meaningful 1st baseman.

He's not skipping high A.

[jersey cubs fan]

So the question is just the first guy to get promoted from one level to another, not necessarily to the big leagues?

 

 

 

 

 

I have no idea.

[Guest]

Probably Brett Jackson or Logan Watkins, simply because they're already on the 40 man. I know Sczcur's on the roster, but as well as he's done and as much as Brett's struggled, they'll likely give Brett at least one more crack at the big league level before passing him over, unless he's included in a trade between now and when that time comes.

 

I really doubt that any starting pitching prospect is brought up anytime soon. Whether it's due tom injury or performance, Even if we trade 2 and shut down/DL 1-2 more to injury, we're likely to replace them with filler like Raley, Rusin, or Struck rather than roster someone else.

 

If you mean simply between minor league levels, I'm going to go with Rock Shoulders. Not only is he crushing the ball, but taking plenty of walks as well. Also, Tennessee really has no meaningful 1st baseman.

 

Of course he meant simply between minor league levels. Did you not read CubsWin's post?

[Guest]

I know his numbers have taken a dip lately, but I'm going to go with Soler.

[jersey cubs fan]

I know his numbers have taken a dip lately, but I'm going to go with Soler.

 

I'm going to guess they will remain cautious on him. He only has 220 professional PA at the moment, including only a very brief stint at low A. These guys have talked repeatedly about having guys go through each level. Plus, given the recent hubbub about his hustle and whatnot, I would expect they'd like to see Soler's name stay out of the press for a while and a promotion to AA at this stage would do the exact opposite. I would hope he gets a promotion sometime this year, but I would guess somebody else is first in line.

[davell]

I'll go with Pierce, with Szczur second.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Probably Brett Jackson or Logan Watkins, simply because they're already on the 40 man. I know Sczcur's on the roster, but as well as he's done and as much as Brett's struggled, they'll likely give Brett at least one more crack at the big league level before passing him over, unless he's included in a trade between now and when that time comes.

 

I really doubt that any starting pitching prospect is brought up anytime soon. Whether it's due tom injury or performance, Even if we trade 2 and shut down/DL 1-2 more to injury, we're likely to replace them with filler like Raley, Rusin, or Struck rather than roster someone else.

 

If you mean simply between minor league levels, I'm going to go with Rock Shoulders. Not only is he crushing the ball, but taking plenty of walks as well. Also, Tennessee really has no meaningful 1st baseman.

He's not skipping high A.

 

Which brings me to a question I've always wondered. The experts may find this ridiculous, but what percentage of pitchers on one level are that much better or more advanced than the next, or even 2 up? Granted, when it comes to higer profile prospects, they're likely to be promoted accordingly and as a result you will hit better prospects. But what percent of them are "non prospects" and interchangeable between levels? Those that are destined to become depth and are simply promoted year after year because they're serviceable, closer to age appropriate than the next guy and there's a hole to fill.

 

Obviously, those making no progress are going to be cut before long, but are A.J. Morris and Kevin Rhoderick really that much mire advanced than Austin Kirk and Sheldon McDonald, and are they really much more advanced than say Michael Heesch and Nathan "Angriest Mugshot Ever

http://www.milb.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_571626.jpg

" Dorris, or are they simply at their present level because they've been around a bit longer and good enough to make the cut until it's time for someone to come up from behind and bounce them? What percent of the pitchers at each level do these types account for?

[toonsterwu]

There's a level of subjectivity as it pertains to who is a meaningful prospect, but the easy money has to be on Pierce Johnson. A relatively polished college arm shouldn't be in Kane County all that long.

 

Much as I like Stephen Bruno, he's a "prove it" (at each level) guy for me, and when you factor in he's coming off this small injury, skipped Low A already (granted, not that big a deal, but he did jump a level), is settling into a position (2nd), and has Torreyes/Alcantara/Villanueva ahead of him in the MI in Tennessee, it's hard to imagine him getting the jump until say, mid-late summer.

 

My guess on if Soler/Baez gets promoted would be late summer, July, maybe even August. I'm using the Xander Bogaerts from last year as a sample here, with the idea that Epstein/Hoyer may maintain a similar thinking, but that might not be the case (as Baez/Soler are slightly older than Bogaerts was last year). If one of them goes earlier, the guess would be Soler.

 

If I had to pick a darkhorse for the heck of it, I'll say Alberto Cabrera

 

Actually, this sort of doesn't count but CubsWin's post didn't specifically exclude this (feels like he's talking only full-season guys right now), but whenever Almora gets going, he could get the jump to Kane County fairly fast.

[jersey cubs fan]

Actually, this sort of doesn't count but CubsWin's post didn't specifically exclude this (feels like he's talking only full-season guys right now), but whenever Almora gets going, he could get the jump to Kane County fairly fast.

 

Isn't he where he is because of injury and therefore that doesn't count within the parameters of the discussion?

[toonsterwu]

Your right, my bad.

[craig]

Johnson stands out.

*Well, of course Garza, too!

 

I don't really see any significant position players earning a promotion.

*John Andreoli is certainly deserving, although obviously he's a somewhat limited prospect.

*Szczur has a .734 OPS. Says something about the poverty of productive position prospects when a .734-OPS is one of out top promotion candidates.

*Dunston might replace Trey Martin and his .543 OPS. But Martin might just be on borrowed time till Almora.

 

Pitchers:

*Johnson has been good and seems obvious. No other starters at Kane.

*Daytona, Kirk might go, just based on experience, but that's not significant.

*I think Cates is kinda fragile; after his problems last year, I think they're going to prefer if he can extend some success, rather than promoting him as soon as he hits a hot streak.

*Tennessee, Beeler, Jokisch, Cabrera, and even Hendricks are all possibilities. Hendricks least, obviously, because he's just gotten to AA, plus his arm is limited, so he'll need to succeed longer. But for Beeler and Jokisch, this is their third year in AA, and it's hardly like Iowa is "blocked" (Loux-Struck-Moscoso-Rusin-Raley-Carpenter are all limited.) Since allowing 3 HR on opening day, Beeler has kept the ball in the park, and he doesn't walk guys. He and Jokisch could each go up at any time.

[Guest]

I don't really see any significant position players earning a promotion.

 

You expect Soler to spend the whole year in high A? That would be incredibly disappointing to me. I think his approach is advanced enough already that he can move quickly.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't really see any significant position players earning a promotion.

 

You expect Soler to spend the whole year in high A? That would be incredibly disappointing to me. I think his approach is advanced enough already that he can move quickly.

 

He probably should spend most of the year there unless he starts ripping the league. There's 29 guys out OPSing him in the FSL now, enough for 2.5 guys per team. There's 12 guys with a 100+ point OPS advantage. He's just now barely at the point where he's got half a season of professional playing time under his belt. He's probably a couple years away from the majors. There shouldn't be a rush to see him in AA.

[Guest]

With Theo's stated approach (x# of abs at each level) I'd be really surprised to see any of the younger guys promoted anytime soon. As much as I want to see talent reach Chicago fast, I can't get all the rushed prospects out of my mind.

 

Szcur seems the guy that best fits a promotion.

[Guest]

With Theo's stated approach (x# of abs at each level) I'd be really surprised to see any of the younger guys promoted anytime soon. As much as I want to see talent reach Chicago fast, I can't get all the rushed prospects out of my mind.

 

Szcur seems the guy that best fits a promotion.

 

I think a lot of that is just talk. A lot of that was said to justify leaving Rizzo at AAA to delay his service time.

 

Baez was promoted from Peoria in his first real year of professional ball after less than 240 PA.

[Cubswin11]

Is Shoulders to Daytona possible within the next 30-45 days? That would put him at a little more than 200 ab's at A ball.

[Guest]

With Theo's stated approach (x# of abs at each level) I'd be really surprised to see any of the younger guys promoted anytime soon. As much as I want to see talent reach Chicago fast, I can't get all the rushed prospects out of my mind.

 

Szcur seems the guy that best fits a promotion.

 

I think a lot of that is just talk. A lot of that was said to justify leaving Rizzo at AAA to delay his service time.

 

Baez was promoted from Peoria in his first real year of professional ball after less than 240 PA.

 

Exactly, Baez to Daytona is the best counter to the thought that Epstein/Hoyer are really as slow with their promotions as they say in the media.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

But Would Baez have been promoted if Alcantara hadn't gotten hurt?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Exactly, Baez to Daytona is the best counter to the thought that Epstein/Hoyer are really as slow with their promotions as they say in the media.

 

I haven't exactly got a database to check this against, but it seems like for that one counter, we've got a dozen or more fan-consensus projections for assignments/promotions that turn out to be wildly optimistic.

[Guest]

Exactly, Baez to Daytona is the best counter to the thought that Epstein/Hoyer are really as slow with their promotions as they say in the media.

 

I haven't exactly got a database to check this against, but it seems like for that one counter, we've got a dozen or more fan-consensus projections for assignments/promotions that turn out to be wildly optimistic.

 

 

What the hell does t hat have to do with anything?

 

I don't expect any of our elite prospects to spend 5-600 AB at every level. Do you?

[Guest]

But Would Baez have been promoted if Alcantara hadn't gotten hurt?

 

Yes. Tim Saunders was called up to Daytona when Alcantara got hurt and Baez was promoted about 2-3 weeks later.

 

Teams don't move around top prospects just because of roster holes in the minor leagues.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What the hell does t hat have to do with anything?

 

I don't expect any of our elite prospects to spend 5-600 AB at every level. Do you?

 

I expect them to move slower than we expect. Exactly 500-600 AB? No. But something close to a full season per level in the mid-to-high minors? Yes.