First To Get Promoted?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I realize that you don't promote guys if they're not ready just because of an injury. But if Alcantara is not hurt and playing well at SS, I don't think they would have called up Baez.

[craig]

I don't really see any significant position players earning a promotion.

 

You expect Soler to spend the whole year in high A? That would be incredibly disappointing to me. I think his approach is advanced enough already that he can move quickly.

 

I don't expect Soler to spend the whole year in high A, no. (Although the way he's been struggling lately, maybe he will.)

 

What I meant was that no good position prospects are playing really well or dominating their leagues and commanding/earning promotions right now. So none are really candidates to be "first to get promoted", or to get promoted anytime soon.

 

I think there are a couple of common "promotion" windows. The first is in May. A guy spends 6 weeks or so at a level, dominates it or performs well enough for long enough to merit the step. It often seems that sometime in or near the end of May is when some guys get bumped. Long enough for it to be more than just a small-sample hot streak.

 

The second is at the half-way point. Often after a level's all-star game, or when they start the "standings" for the second half.

 

A third is a little later, but early enough so that the guy will get a real taste of the next level. Get a full month or so at the next level. Get in 80+ AB's at the next level.

 

A fourth is very late. Just to give a little taste, or perhaps to extend a season by promoting to a team that will play longer in the playoffs or something.

 

My expectation is that Soler or Baez might get the August-in-AA sample (case 3), but will need to start playing a lot better to earn a half-way promotion. And have no chance of earning May promotion.

 

Daytona has 12 guys who have played in more than 5 games. Soler and Baez are both in the bottom half for average; neither are in the top 3rd for OPS; Soler is in the bottom half for OBP; and of course Baez is the worst of the 12 for OBP. Defensively Baez has 12 errors; the rest of the team has 16. (We often blame errors on bad fields/lights/scorekeepers; but those factors don't seem to be killing the other defenders.....)

 

Seems to me that both Baez and Soler are plenty challenged in A-ball right now. Neither one will be moving up anytime soon.

[Guest]

Soler still has a 9.9 BB% and 14.8 K%. His GB% is a little higher than I'd expect at 50%, but the biggest anomaly versus what I'd expect is a low HR/FB rate. I expect that's partially a result of the FSL and partially just random variance given his power.

 

I'm not really worried at all at this point.

[jersey cubs fan]

Soler still has a 9.9 BB% and 14.8 K%. His GB% is a little higher than I'd expect at 50%, but the biggest anomaly versus what I'd expect is a low HR/FB rate. I expect that's partially a result of the FSL and partially just random variance given his power.

 

I'm not really worried at all at this point.

 

Sure, but being worried and not seeing justification for promotion are very different.

[Guest]

If Soler keeps up the pace on his BB & K peripherals, I'd bet his numbers will look worthy of a promotion by the end of June.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If Soler keeps up the pace on his BB & K peripherals, I'd bet his numbers will look worthy of a promotion by the end of June.

 

I don't see it.

 

His peripherals hold up very well to his numbers. His BABIP is his line drive rate +0.143. His XBH/1b ratios are on the high side, if anything. He's about 7/10ths of a HR short on HR/FB ratio compared to his rate last year.

 

He might be due another 10-30 points of SLG if you wanted to give him a HR or two, but that's all I see. An .800 OPS is nothing to be ashamed of in the FSL, but it doesn't scream "mid-season promotion" to me either.

[Guest]

If Soler keeps up the pace on his BB & K peripherals, I'd bet his numbers will look worthy of a promotion by the end of June.

 

I don't see it.

 

His peripherals hold up very well to his numbers. His BABIP is his line drive rate +0.143. His XBH/1b ratios are on the high side, if anything. He's about 7/10ths of a HR short on HR/FB ratio compared to his rate last year.

 

He might be due another 10-30 points of SLG if you wanted to give him a HR or two, but that's all I see. An .800 OPS is nothing to be ashamed of in the FSL, but it doesn't scream "mid-season promotion" to me either.

I think his "natural" rate is higher than he showed last year in his first US experience after a 12 month layoff from playing professional baseball. Add three HR to his total along with the additional hits to his BA and he's around .850 OPS. Comparing that to last season's leaderboard to eliminate hot starts would put him in third place overall.

 

That would be worthy of a promotion.

 

Fundamentally, a guy with his power is going to put up really good numbers if they walk 10% of the time and only strike out 15% unless they have a crazy GB rate.

[Guest]

If Soler keeps up the pace on his BB & K peripherals, I'd bet his numbers will look worthy of a promotion by the end of June.

 

I don't see it.

 

His peripherals hold up very well to his numbers. His BABIP is his line drive rate +0.143. His XBH/1b ratios are on the high side, if anything. He's about 7/10ths of a HR short on HR/FB ratio compared to his rate last year.

 

He might be due another 10-30 points of SLG if you wanted to give him a HR or two, but that's all I see. An .800 OPS is nothing to be ashamed of in the FSL, but it doesn't scream "mid-season promotion" to me either.

 

So, about that....

[Hairyducked Idiot]

*shrug* It's baseball. Being wrong a lot of the time about what a player will do in any given month is the norm.

[Little Slide Rooter]

While he might not fall into the relevant catogory, Yeiper Castillo is 24 at A+ with 4/27 BB/K with a 2.33 ERA. 2nd season off shoulder surgery. Could be time to see if he can do something similar at AA.

 

Similarly, I can't help but notice that while Rafael Dolis keeps racking up frequent flyer miles and the Iowa BP regulars seem to be whipping baseballs toward home plate with reckless abandon, two more minor league free agent signings seem to be doing very well for themselves;

 

Yoanir Negrin 23.2 IP 7/31 BB/K, 2.66 ERA 1.44 WHIP

Guillermo Moscoso 21 IP 5/24 BB/K 2.14 ERA 1.29 WHIP

Moscoso's been a starter. While I can't see him as a starter for the big league club, I'd be interested in seeing either of these two called up as relievers next time the need arrises.