2013 NHL Playoff Thread

[NewUserName]

As a Wings fan the Leafs implosion makes me happy. So I was looking around for this and couldn't find the information anywhere. What are the chances a team scores a goal pulling a goalie? What are the chances of an EN? I would think it would be at least 4 to 1 EN over goal. Also at least 4to1 no goal over goal. So what would the chances be of scoring 2 goals in the same EN situation? And then the chances of that happening in a game 7? I am no math guy so I would suck at even trying to figure this out. My guess is 2 goals with the goalie pulled happens twice a year tops.

[seanimal]

As a Wings fan the Leafs implosion makes me happy. So I was looking around for this and couldn't find the information anywhere. What are the chances a team scores a goal pulling a goalie? What are the chances of an EN? I would think it would be at least 4 to 1 EN over goal. Also at least 4to1 no goal over goal. So what would the chances be of scoring 2 goals in the same EN situation? And then the chances of that happening in a game 7? I am no math guy so I would suck at even trying to figure this out. My guess is 2 goals with the goalie pulled happens twice a year tops.

 

http://people.stat.sfu.ca/~tim/papers/goalie.pdf

 

For the pulled goalie strategy to be effective, a necessary condition is that the team pulling the goaltender has to score at a higher rate when playing 6-on-5 than 5-on-5 with both goaltenders. Combining road and home statistics, teams playing 6-on-5 score a goal every 8.5 minutes, which is way below the sample means of 28.6 and 26.2 minutes when playing 5-on-5 with both goaltenders for the road and home teams, respectively. Therefore, the decision to pull a goalie when trailing late in the game seems promising.

 

it doesn't really matter what the likelihood of getting scored on is. you're already losing, you can't lose more

[kujay]

I haven't watched them a lot this year but I really like the Sens style. They move the puck really well.

[NewUserName]

As a Wings fan the Leafs implosion makes me happy. So I was looking around for this and couldn't find the information anywhere. What are the chances a team scores a goal pulling a goalie? What are the chances of an EN? I would think it would be at least 4 to 1 EN over goal. Also at least 4to1 no goal over goal. So what would the chances be of scoring 2 goals in the same EN situation? And then the chances of that happening in a game 7? I am no math guy so I would suck at even trying to figure this out. My guess is 2 goals with the goalie pulled happens twice a year tops.

 

http://people.stat.sfu.ca/~tim/papers/goalie.pdf

 

For the pulled goalie strategy to be effective, a necessary condition is that the team pulling the goaltender has to score at a higher rate when playing 6-on-5 than 5-on-5 with both goaltenders. Combining road and home statistics, teams playing 6-on-5 score a goal every 8.5 minutes, which is way below the sample means of 28.6 and 26.2 minutes when playing 5-on-5 with both goaltenders for the road and home teams, respectively. Therefore, the decision to pull a goalie when trailing late in the game seems promising.

 

it doesn't really matter what the likelihood of getting scored on is. you're already losing, you can't lose more

 

I do not argue this. I actually have read and probably agree that teams should actually pull the goalie sooner then they do. 2 1/2 to 3 mins left. I just was wondering what the odds were for scoring two goals in the last min and a half with your goalie pulled without giving one up? And it being a game 7

[seanimal]

umm, one in a bajillion? i know that coming back down three goals at the start of the third period had never happened in game 7 history, so i wouldn't be surprised that the two goals, extra attacker thing in game seven is a first as well

 

as far as probability goes? that's a good question. you increase your chances substantially of scoring a goal, but having a goal scored on you is so much more likely. i think it's like 1 out of every 5 times a goalie is pulled late and close, an empty netter is scored. if that's true, that would be say a goal every five minutes, versus the goal every 8 minutes in the other direction

 

if you are crappy at even strength, then yea pull your goalie as soon as possible in the 3rd with a goal+ deficit. if you are great at even strength, leave your goalie out there and let your team do its thing. there's still value in protecting from a goal against

[biittner77]

I can't remember ever seeing a team score 2 goals with an empty net ever. In baseball terms, it would be like blowing a 10 run lead in the 9th inning.

[UMFan83]

I'm pretty scared at how accurate these EA Sports Simulations of the playoffs are so far:

 

http://espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/9224179/cup-finals-rangers-beat-blackhawks

 

Correct:

Blackhawks over Wild 4-1

Red Wings over Ducks 4-3

Penguins over Islanders 4-2

Rangers over Capitals 4-3

Bruins over Maple Leafs 4-3

 

Correct winner:

Kings over Blues 4-3 (was 4-2)

 

Incorrect:

Canucks over Sharks 4-3 (was 4-0 Sharks)

Habs over Senators 4-3 (was 4-1 Senators)

[UMFan83]

I can't remember ever seeing a team score 2 goals with an empty net ever. In baseball terms, it would be like blowing a 10 run lead in the 9th inning.

 

It's happened. I cant think of a specific example, but I know I've seen it a few times. I think I remember the Wings doing it to the Hawks a couple of years ago.

 

Edit: Actually this was way back in 05-06:

 

http://espn.go.com/nhl/boxscore?gameId=251223004

 

Hawks were up 2-0, gave up goals with 39 seconds left and 7 seconds left, and then gave up a goal with 1 second left in OT to lose.

[Banedon]

I'm pretty scared at how accurate these EA Sports Simulations of the playoffs are so far:

 

http://espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/9224179/cup-finals-rangers-beat-blackhawks

 

Correct:

Blackhawks over Wild 4-1

Red Wings over Ducks 4-3

Penguins over Islanders 4-2

Rangers over Capitals 4-3

Bruins over Maple Leafs 4-3

 

Correct winner:

Kings over Blues 4-3 (was 4-2)

 

Incorrect:

Canucks over Sharks 4-3 (was 4-0 Sharks)

Habs over Senators 4-3 (was 4-1 Senators)

 

And they did have the Canucks getting swept, just not till the second round. Wow.

[biittner77]

I'm pretty scared at how accurate these EA Sports Simulations of the playoffs are so far:

 

http://espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/9224179/cup-finals-rangers-beat-blackhawks

 

Correct:

Blackhawks over Wild 4-1

Red Wings over Ducks 4-3

Penguins over Islanders 4-2

Rangers over Capitals 4-3

Bruins over Maple Leafs 4-3

 

Correct winner:

Kings over Blues 4-3 (was 4-2)

 

Incorrect:

Canucks over Sharks 4-3 (was 4-0 Sharks)

Habs over Senators 4-3 (was 4-1 Senators)

 

And they did have the Canucks getting swept, just not till the second round. Wow.

 

will they re do these based the actual matchups? It's silly putting any stock in this when they have the Habs making the ECF

[Drew Doughty]

I can't remember ever seeing a team score 2 goals with an empty net ever. In baseball terms, it would be like blowing a 10 run lead in the 9th inning.

 

the bruins did it earlier this year against the rangers i think. i know they erased a 3 goal lead in the 3rd and a 2 goal deficit very late but i can't remember for sure if they did it with goalie pulled or not.

 

kind of a cool little study, that kind of comeback (game 7, overtime, blowing the 2 goal lead late while other team has empty net) happens once in 60 lifetimes

[UMFan83]

I can't remember ever seeing a team score 2 goals with an empty net ever. In baseball terms, it would be like blowing a 10 run lead in the 9th inning.

 

the bruins did it earlier this year against the rangers i think. i know they erased a 3 goal lead in the 3rd and a 2 goal deficit very late but i can't remember for sure if they did it with goalie pulled or not.

 

kind of a cool little study, that kind of comeback (game 7, overtime, blowing the 2 goal lead late while other team has empty net) happens once in 60 lifetimes

 

I think this evens them out for being on the losing end of Philly's 3-0 series comeback and 3-0 Game 7 comeback a couple of years ago.

[biittner77]

How many games does Torres get? Theyw ere saying 5 on the Hawks broadcast. It didn't look like he left his feet but he definitely targeted his head. Anyone else would get 5 for that. Torres should get the rest of the playoffs given his previous arrest record so to speak.

[jersey cubs fan]

How many games does Torres get? Theyw ere saying 5 on the Hawks broadcast. It didn't look like he left his feet but he definitely targeted his head. Anyone else would get 5 for that. Torres should get the rest of the playoffs given his previous arrest record so to speak.

 

Puck Daddy believes anybody else should get zero.

[biittner77]

How many games does Torres get? Theyw ere saying 5 on the Hawks broadcast. It didn't look like he left his feet but he definitely targeted his head. Anyone else would get 5 for that. Torres should get the rest of the playoffs given his previous arrest record so to speak.

 

Puck Daddy believes anybody else should get zero.

 

 

at the 0:39 mark, he could have hit him cleanly in the shoulder but seems to miss that on purpose to get his head.

[kujay]

Want to see a dirtbag hit? YouTube Edler's hit on Staal at the World Championships today.

[kujay]

Okay I think Liam McHugh is trying to make a Chappelle reference every night during intermissions. Last night he called Torres a habitual linestepper, and tonight he called him an example of what happens when keepin' it real goes wrong. I like this guy.

[UMFan83]

As a Hawks fan, if I had to choose the 3 other teams that I least wanted to still be alive going into the Conference Finals, it would have been the Pens, Bruins and Kings. So far so bad.

[kujay]

As a Hawks fan, if I had to choose the 3 other teams that I least wanted to still be alive going into the Conference Finals, it would have been the Pens, Bruins and Kings. So far so bad.

 

This.

[cubbyvirus00]

Well, we did get to avoid the Ducks, but yeah the Kings scare me.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Massive choke job by the Sharks. fml

 

shouldn't expect anything different. :(

[biittner77]

Hopefully the Sha-arks can at least make a series of it.

[pitchcs]

As a Hawks fan, if I had to choose the 3 other teams that I least wanted to still be alive going into the Conference Finals, it would have been the Pens, Bruins and Kings. So far so bad.

 

This.

 

I dunno, I think Rangers are only team from East who can challenge the West champ.

[seanimal]

As a Hawks fan, if I had to choose the 3 other teams that I least wanted to still be alive going into the Conference Finals, it would have been the Pens, Bruins and Kings. So far so bad.

 

This.

 

I dunno, I think Rangers are only team from East who can challenge the West champ.

 

you're going to have to explain yourself sir. extra points if you can convince without using the word "goalie"

[jersey cubs fan]

The goaltender is sometimes very good.