NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2013

[rawaction]

E, D, H, A would be my rank

[Guest]

I'll go E, F, J, A

[Exile on Waveland]

Random assortment of top 16 teams...rank em! Note, the top seeds will likely come out of this group unless crazy sets in somewhere.

 

Tm  1-25  26-50  51-100  101-200 201+  R/N   Top W      Top L
A   4-2   3-1    6-1     9-0     2-0   10-4  G,K        H,O
B   4-2   2-1    3-2     6-0     7-0   9-5   P
C   3-3   4-0    5-0     4-1     6-0   8-3   G,N        E,M
D   3-0   3-1    6-1     7-0     8-0   14-1  L
E   6-2   2-1    3-1     6-0     7-0   8-3   C,I,J,J,K  P
F   2-2   9-1    4-0     3-0     6-1   10-3  K,L        J,L
G   3-3   3-1    4-1     10-0    3-0   10-4  M          A,C,N
H   3-1   3-0    6-1     9-2     2-0   10-4  A,J,O
I   3-4   5-0    2-0     7-1     5-0   7-5   K,M        E,J,K,P
J   5-5   2-1    3-0     8-0     3-0   7-5   F,I,K,P    E,E,H,K
K   4-6   1-1    2-0     9-0     5-0   6-5   J,P        A,E,F,I,J,P
L   1-2   5-3    2-0     4-1     9-0   8-4   F          D,F
M   2-4   2-2    5-0     5-1     8-0   7-4   C,N        G,I
N   1-3   3-1    7-2     6-0     5-0   6-5   G          C,M
O   2-1   2-1    4-2     6-3     6-1   3-7   A,P        H
P   4-7   3-1    2-0     5-0     6-0   5-6   E,I,K      B,J,K,O

E has such an...interesting resume.

 

It is pretty awesome, isn't it?

[bukie]

Looks like people figured out team E is Indiana. As for the rest of them...

 

 

A - Duke

B - Florida

C - Georgetown

D - Gonzaga

E - Indiana

F - Kansas

G - Louisville

H - Miami

I - Michigan

J - Michigan State

K - Ohio State

L - Oklahoma State

M - Pittsburgh

N - Syracuse

O - Virginia

P - Wisconsin

 

[rawaction]

Looks like people figured out team E is Indiana. As for the rest of them...

 

 

A - Duke

B - Florida

C - Georgetown

D - Gonzaga

E - Indiana

F - Kansas

G - Louisville

H - Miami

I - Michigan

J - Michigan State

K - Ohio State

L - Oklahoma State

M - Pittsburgh

N - Syracuse

O - Virginia

P - Wisconsin

 

I assumed because they beat J twice and nobody else beat another top 16 twice. I might still pick my 4 even knowing who they are (IU, Gonzaga, Duke, Miami).

[UK1679666180]

Looks like people figured out team E is Indiana. As for the rest of them...

 

 

A - Duke

B - Florida

C - Georgetown

D - Gonzaga

E - Indiana

F - Kansas

G - Louisville

H - Miami

I - Michigan

J - Michigan State

K - Ohio State

L - Oklahoma State

M - Pittsburgh

N - Syracuse

O - Virginia

P - Wisconsin

 

I assumed because they beat J twice and nobody else beat another top 16 twice. I might still pick my 4 even knowing who they are (IU, Gonzaga, Duke, Miami).

 

I still got KU as a #1 ahead of Miami.

[UK1679666180]

Right now, my last 4 in are Iowa State, Kentucky, Boise St. and Villanova and my 1st 4 out are Tennessee, Mississippi, Baylor, and Southern Miss.

[UK1679666180]

Right now, the way its set-up.

 

As far posters' interests I have:

 

Illinois (7) vs. Creighton (10)

Indiana (1) vs. Norfolk St (16)

UCLA (7) vs. Wichita St. (10)

Wisconsin (4) vs. Akron (13)

Michigan (3) vs. S. Dakota St. (14)

UNLV (5) vs. Iowa State (12)

Kansas (1) vs. Robert Morris (16)

NC ST (8) vs. Mizzou (9)

OK ST (5) vs. Kentucky (12)

[hawkeyecub]

Team A- 2-8 vs. top 50

Team B- 2-7 vs. top 50

 

Team A- 2-0 vs. 51-100

Team B- 3-1 vs. 51-100

 

Team A- 7-3 vs. 101-200

Team B- 5-1 vs. 101-200

 

Team A- 7-0 vs. 200+

Team B- 9-1 vs. 200+

 

Team A- 2-8 on road, 2-1 on neutral courts

Team B- 3-8 on road, 1-1 on neutral courts

 

Team A- 1 top 100 win away from home, 4 top 200 wins away from home

Team B- 1 top 100 win away from home, 2 top 200 wins away from home

 

Team A- 32 in Pomeroy, 37 in Sagarin

Team B- 45 in Pomeroy, 42 in Sagarin

 

Yet Team A's RPI is 87 and Team B's RPI is 52 so Team B is still often considered in while Team A is often mentioned as not even one of the top 8 out.

[Formerly Snayke]

This should be fun.

[bukie]

The teams' profiles are fairly similar according to Pomeroy, but not as much in comparison to the RPI. Iowa's basically got to hope the committee chair's comments about always using Pomeroy and Sagarin actually mean something for the committee's selections.

[abuck1220]

Team A- 2-8 vs. top 50

Team B- 2-7 vs. top 50

 

Team A- 2-0 vs. 51-100

Team B- 3-1 vs. 51-100

 

Team A- 7-3 vs. 101-200

Team B- 5-1 vs. 101-200

 

Team A- 7-0 vs. 200+

Team B- 9-1 vs. 200+

 

Team A- 2-8 on road, 2-1 on neutral courts

Team B- 3-8 on road, 1-1 on neutral courts

 

Team A- 1 top 100 win away from home, 4 top 200 wins away from home

Team B- 1 top 100 win away from home, 2 top 200 wins away from home

 

Team A- 32 in Pomeroy, 37 in Sagarin

Team B- 45 in Pomeroy, 42 in Sagarin

 

Yet Team A's RPI is 87 and Team B's RPI is 52 so Team B is still often considered in while Team A is often mentioned as not even one of the top 8 out.

 

iowa should have played more byus and florida gulf coasts and fewer howards and texas pan-ams. that's the only reason they are where they are right now.

 

if iowa were to somehow make the tourney, they'd probably have the highest RPI of any team ever selected.

[abuck1220]

also, if iowa state finishes with the two top 50 wins that means they will have lost to both okie st and oklahoma in the B12 tourney and probably won't make it either.

 

stupid baylor and byu couldn't stay in the top 50...

[bukie]

Two conference tournaments start tonight:

- Big South (KP #171 Charleston Southern is a 31.6% favorite)

- Horizon (KP #66 Valparaiso is a 60.4% favorite)

[hawkeyecub]

Right. But that's a big part of why the RPI is so dumb. Basically that 35 spot gap in the rankings is based on ISU playing only one 300+ team and Iowa playing five of them (won all 5 by 29 or more). But ISU has played more 200+, they just played mid-200 teams instead of 300+. Their record would almost certainly be exactly the same had they replaced four of the 300's with 225+'s but it changes the RPI by 30 or more spots.

 

I mean it's Fran's fault for scheduling so dumb. You can schedule easy without scheduling dumb. A lot of us saw this coming in the summer. It's just annoying that something so meaningless makes such an impact.

[abuck1220]

Right. But that's a big part of why the RPI is so dumb. Basically that 35 spot gap in the rankings is based on ISU playing only one 300+ team and Iowa playing five of them (won all 5 by 29 or more). But ISU has played more 200+, they just played mid-200 teams instead of 300+. Their record would almost certainly be exactly the same had they replaced four of the 300's with 225+'s but it changes the RPI by 30 or more spots.

 

I mean it's Fran's fault for scheduling so dumb. You can schedule easy without scheduling dumb. A lot of us saw this coming in the summer. It's just annoying that something so meaningless makes such an impact.

 

right. and iowa st could have scheduled a bunch of 150ish teams instead of 225ish teams, they would have had the same record (probably) and it would bump up their rpi. it's how oklahoma gamed the system this year...they played a bunch of 95-140ish teams and they have (supposedly) one of the best OOC schedules in the country.

 

problem is, it's hard to guess whether stephen f. austin/florida gulf coast/northwestern st/whoever is going to be 250 or 120 year in and year out.

[bukie]

Nobody's arguing that the RPI isn't dumb and completely gameable. What is true about the RPI is it's what the committee actually uses in their comparison software.

[hawkeyecub]

Nobody's arguing that the RPI isn't dumb and completely gameable. What is true about the RPI is it's what the committee actually uses in their comparison software.

 

Of course, no one is arguing that either.

[Andy]

I just completed my lists for next week (haven't sent them in so I can make adjustments as needed based on this weekend's results) and I can't believe how many locks I have.

[bukie]

No conference favorites lost yesterday, since neither favorite had to play in the first round. Closest thing to an upset was Coastal Carolina getting blown out on their home floor to a very inferior team (18.1% chance of victory).

 

Today, five other conference tourneys begin:

-- Atlantic Sun (KP #130 Mercer is a 56.4% favorite)

-- NEC (KP #128 Robert Morris is a 46.9% favorite)

-- Patriot (KP #57 Bucknell is a 69.8% favorite)

-- OVC (KP #38 Belmont is a 76.6% favorite)

-- WCC (KP #4 Gonzaga is a 67.8% favorite)

 

Also, lest I forget, since the Ivy League doesn't have a tournament, KP #81 Princeton is 1 game up in the loss column on KP #99 Harvard with 3 to play, all on the road. Odds are that both teams finish tied at 11-3, at which point they'd have a one game playoff at a neutral site.

[Vanilla Ice]

Topic for discussion: very underwhelmed with both Creighton and Wichita St.'s resumes.

[Guest]

FYI, I realized that next week I may be real limited in my ability to participate. I'll try to get lists in where possible, but don't wait on me.

[Andy]

Topic for discussion: very underwhelmed with both Creighton and Wichita St.'s resumes.

I think I had Creighton as a lock, but agreed that neither one is really all that impressive.

[bukie]

Every single favorite won yesterday in the conference tourney schedule. Only one new tournament starts today:

 

-- MVC (KP #21 Creighton is a 44.8% favorite)

[bukie]

Topic for discussion: very underwhelmed with both Creighton and Wichita St.'s resumes.

I think I had Creighton as a lock, but agreed that neither one is really all that impressive.

Creighton has neutral site wins over Wisconsin and Arizona State, and a road win at Cal, which is all pretty impressive and should push them ahead of most of the other bubble teams in discussion.

 

Wichita State has a road win at VCU and neutral court win over Iowa. Not as impressive, and more borderline. The main concern for the bubble teams would be if neither of those teams won the conference tourney, though.