NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2013

[bukie]

Round 2 results:

 

S-Curve (16):

1. Indiana

2. Duke

3. Louisville

4. Gonzaga

5. Kansas

6. Michigan State

7. Michigan

8. Georgetown

...

61. Big Sky (Weber State)

62. America East (Vermont)

63. James Madison (CAA)

64. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

65. MEAC (NC Central)

66. LIU Brooklyn (NEC)

67. SWAC (Southern)

68. Liberty (Big South)

 

Next 12 vote:

Arizona

Florida

Kansas State

Marquette

Miami

New Mexico

Ohio State

Oklahoma State

Pittsburgh

St. Louis

Syracuse

Wisconsin

 

Other auto bids/potential one-bid leagues (13):

Florida Gulf Coast (A-Sun)

Big West (Pacific)

Valparaiso (Horizon)

Harvard (Ivy)

Iona (MAAC)

MAC (Akron)

Creighton (MVC)

Belmont (OVC)

Bucknell (Patriot)

Southland (SF Austin)

Davidson (SoCon)

South Dakota State (Summit)

WAC (Denver)

 

At-Large locks (15):

Butler

Cincinnati

Colorado State

Illinois

Memphis

Minnesota

Missouri

North Carolina

North Carolina State

Notre Dame

Oklahoma

San Diego State

UCLA

UNLV

VCU

 

Consideration (25 teams for 3 to 12 available bids):

Air Force

Akron

Alabama

Arizona State

Arkansas

Baylor

Boise State

California

Colorado

Denver

Iowa

Iowa State

Kentucky

La Salle

Maryland

Middle Tennessee

Mississippi

Oregon

St. Mary's

Stanford

Temple

Tennessee

Villanova

Virginia

Wichita State

 

Off the board:

BYU

Dayton

Louisiana Tech

Providence

Stephen F Austin

Southern Miss

UMass

Washington

[bukie]

Feel free to double check my numbers, as I am sleepy. I'll verify in the morning and explain what is next.

[bukie]

Next steps:

 

1) Rank the "Next 12 vote" teams in order.

2) Rank the lowest 8 among locks and auto bids (probably mostly one bid leagues)

3) Rank the next 12 best teams from among the teams left in the locks, auto bids, or consideration

4) Rank the remaining 25 teams in the consideration pool

5) Start the bracketing process, including regions and pods for the top 8 and bottom 8. Keep the bracketing rules in mind. This can be done just with thread discussion today.

 

So send me 4 lists today and we'll get the bubble sorted out.

 

Also, both half-decent teams in the MEAC lost in the quarters, so I think the MEAC winner may dip to the bottom of the S-Curve.

[bukie]

Updated the OP with the latest data. The last 5 meaningful conference tourney's start today (and the last Great West tourney, for the right to a CBI bid):

 

-- Big West (KP #124 Pacific is a 25.7% favorite, 4 teams have a better than 15% chance though)

-- Big Sky (KP #90 Weber State is a 48,5% favorite, and KP #147 Montana is just behind at 46.2%)

-- A-10 (KP #17 VCU is a 34.6% favorite, with KP #21 St. Louis just behind at 30.3%)

-- Big Ten (KP #2 Indiana is a 39.9% favorite)

-- ACC (KP #5 Duke is a 47.4% favorite)

[bukie]

And anyone can participate in the thread discussion, about the bracketing and what have you, since I don't really feel like talking to myself in here all week.

[Guest]

And anyone can participate in the thread discussion, about the bracketing and what have you, since I don't really feel like talking to myself in here all week.

Go Illini!

[bukie]

I will say, after seeing the bubble and the teams that are already in the field, the Illini and Gophers are nowhere near the edge of the bubble.

[SouthSideRyan]

I will say, after seeing the bubble and the teams that are already in the field, the Illini and Gophers are nowhere near the edge of the bubble.

 

Seriously, 12 of THOSE teams could make the tourney as at-larges???

 

And the MAC bracket may upstage the WCC bracket for "let's make sure our representative isn't terrible"

 

http://www.mac-sports.com/Portals/20/1213MACBracket_1.pdf

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm kind of shocked how viable Iowa looks if they win today. And how blah Iowa State's resume is.

[SouthSideRyan]

I have multiple 9-7 Mountain West teams over 12-6 Pac 12 and SEC teams.

[Andy]

I have multiple 9-7 Mountain West teams over 12-6 Pac 12 and SEC teams.

Me too.

[Andy]

As for bracketing pods, these seem like logical places to put the top 8.

 

IU - Dayton

Duke - Lexington (no Greensboro or Charlotte or blatantly pro-Duke/UNC pods? NCAA slacking there)

Louisville - Dayton

Gonzaga - San Jose

Kansas - Kansas City

MSU - Auburn Hills

Michigan - Auburn Hills

Georgetown - Philadelphia

[Thed Hoyerstein]

I'm kind of shocked how viable Iowa looks if they win today. And how blah Iowa State's resume is.

 

Still think Iowa needs to beat Michigan State (3 seed, right?) tomorrow night to get in. Crazy to think you could argue that if they didn't lose @ Nebbie that all they would have needed was a win tonight to get in.

[Exile on Waveland]

I will say, after seeing the bubble and the teams that are already in the field, the Illini and Gophers are nowhere near the edge of the bubble.

 

Seriously, 12 of THOSE teams could make the tourney as at-larges???

 

Which is why I'm rooting for Iowa to do well in the Big Ten Tournament (and think they will). They're better than a number of teams that will receive at-large bids.

[SouthSideRyan]

As for bracketing pods, these seem like logical places to put the top 8.

 

IU - Dayton

Duke - Lexington (no Greensboro or Charlotte or blatantly pro-Duke/UNC pods? NCAA slacking there)

Louisville - Dayton

Gonzaga - San Jose

Kansas - Kansas City

MSU - Auburn Hills

Michigan - Auburn Hills

Georgetown - Philadelphia

 

Are you afraid a pro-UK crowd would drown out the proximity of Lexington for Louisville?

[SouthSideRyan]

As for bracketing pods, these seem like logical places to put the top 8.

 

IU - Dayton

Duke - Lexington (no Greensboro or Charlotte or blatantly pro-Duke/UNC pods? NCAA slacking there)

Louisville - Dayton

Gonzaga - San Jose

Kansas - Kansas City

MSU - Auburn Hills

Michigan - Auburn Hills

Georgetown - Philadelphia

 

Are you afraid a pro-UK crowd would drown out the proximity of Lexington for Louisville?

 

New Mexico to Salt Lake and Arizona to San Jose seems pretty easy as well.

[Andy]

As for bracketing pods, these seem like logical places to put the top 8.

 

IU - Dayton

Duke - Lexington (no Greensboro or Charlotte or blatantly pro-Duke/UNC pods? NCAA slacking there)

Louisville - Dayton

Gonzaga - San Jose

Kansas - Kansas City

MSU - Auburn Hills

Michigan - Auburn Hills

Georgetown - Philadelphia

 

Are you afraid a pro-UK crowd would drown out the proximity of Lexington for Louisville?

I'm running on little sleep and clearly am losing my mind. Yeah, obviously Lexington makes more sense for Louisville.

[bukie]

I am running on no sleep, so I choose not to make any decisions today...*project due*...[expletive].

[Guest]

I will say, after seeing the bubble and the teams that are already in the field, the Illini and Gophers are nowhere near the edge of the bubble.

 

Seriously, 12 of THOSE teams could make the tourney as at-larges???

 

And the MAC bracket may upstage the WCC bracket for "let's make sure our representative isn't terrible"

 

http://www.mac-sports.com/Portals/20/1213MACBracket_1.pdf

 

The Big West used to have a similar style bracket where 1 and 2 seeds get byes to the semis, 3 and 4 seeds have byes to the quarters and 5-8 play in the first round. They switched to a normal 8 team bracket a couple years ago, though.

[bukie]

I'd say UCLA just narrowly avoided a bad loss, but I'm not sure there are bad losses or good wins in the Pac 12.

[UK1679666180]

(nevermind)

[Andy]

Ok, so what we have so far, just using the top 8 and bottom 8 since they're the confirmed ones. I'm taking Southern out of the play-in for these purposes since the committee obviously doesn't like putting both HBCU in there.

 

1 Indiana vs 16 Liberty/MEAC - Dayton (Midwest Region)

1 Duke vs 16 LIU Brooklyn/W. Kentucky - Lexington (East Region)

1 Louisville vs 16 Southern - Lexington (South Region)

1 Gonzaga vs 16 James Madison - San Jose (West Region)

2 Kansas vs 15 America East - Kansas City

2 Michigan State vs 15 Big Sky - Auburn Hills

2 Michigan vs 15 TBD - Auburn Hills

2 Georgetown vs 15 TBD - Philadelphia

 

What regions do the 2's go in? I confess slight ignorance on whether travel time or keeping the top 2's with the bottom 1's is supposed to be the priority. If travel time is the priority, then Kansas should go out west, MSU should go to the Midwest Region and Michigan would then go to D.C. with Georgetown headed to Arlington. But if 'ranking' the 2's is important, then MSU and Georgetown should switch.

[bukie]

(nevermind)

If anything that's going on is confusing or I messed something up, just let me know.

[bukie]

Ok, so what we have so far, just using the top 8 and bottom 8 since they're the confirmed ones. I'm taking Southern out of the play-in for these purposes since the committee obviously doesn't like putting both HBCU in there.

 

1 Indiana vs 16 Liberty/MEAC - Dayton (Midwest Region)

1 Duke vs 16 LIU Brooklyn/W. Kentucky - Lexington (East Region)

1 Louisville vs 16 Southern - Lexington (South Region)

1 Gonzaga vs 16 James Madison - San Jose (West Region)

2 Kansas vs 15 America East - Kansas City

2 Michigan State vs 15 Big Sky - Auburn Hills

2 Michigan vs 15 TBD - Auburn Hills

2 Georgetown vs 15 TBD - Philadelphia

 

What regions do the 2's go in? I confess slight ignorance on whether travel time or keeping the top 2's with the bottom 1's is supposed to be the priority. If travel time is the priority, then Kansas should go out west, MSU should go to the Midwest Region and Michigan would then go to D.C. with Georgetown headed to Arlington. But if 'ranking' the 2's is important, then MSU and Georgetown should switch.

The committee generally prioritizes travel time over competitive balance within a seed, but overall they try to balance the competition among the 1-4 seeds.

[SouthSideRyan]

Additionally, if at all possible we should keep Michigan, MSU, and IU in different brackets.