2014 Draft Discussion

[neely crenshaw]

I don't know how we pass on one of the big arms if they are there.

Everyone keeps talking injury problems but we have to have pitching. No matter what we do: trade for, sign or draft pitchers the same question marks are there. Kershaw was about as durable as we have seen and he signs a contract and gets hurt. Its a crap shoot but we can't avoid it forever. It seems like drafting is a much cheaper option than signing a big time free agent-plus we don't have to convince them to sign with us.

[davell]

Other than Daniel Hudson, who had to have it again, who else has just flat out not came back?(Vizcaino's pitching, so he doesn't count)

 

The extreme vast majority come back and come back with the same velo. The more I read, the more I go back to thinking Hoffman at 4 and at a huge discount is the best option for us. Even IF Rodon were there, with his shoulder concerns.

[Guest]

Other than Daniel Hudson, who had to have it again, who else has just flat out not came back?(Vizcaino's pitching, so he doesn't count)

 

The extreme vast majority come back and come back with the same velo. The more I read, the more I go back to thinking Hoffman at 4 and at a huge discount is the best option for us. Even IF Rodon were there, with his shoulder concerns.

 

It's a spectrum. Vizcaino is back, but he's a reliever and not because his stuff isn't good enough. Other guys may lose velocity, or have to adjust their repertoire to avoid throwing a certain pitch or pitch mix. Others still will just be the guys more prone to other injuries that don't necessarily require TJS.

 

Taking Hoffman at a discount would make some sense at 19 or maybe even 13, but at 4 it's a very bad idea.

[XZero771679666304]

Other than Daniel Hudson, who had to have it again, who else has just flat out not came back?(Vizcaino's pitching, so he doesn't count)

 

The extreme vast majority come back and come back with the same velo. The more I read, the more I go back to thinking Hoffman at 4 and at a huge discount is the best option for us. Even IF Rodon were there, with his shoulder concerns.

 

It's a spectrum. Vizcaino is back, but he's a reliever and not because his stuff isn't good enough. Other guys may lose velocity, or have to adjust their repertoire to avoid throwing a certain pitch or pitch mix. Others still will just be the guys more prone to other injuries that don't necessarily require TJS.

 

Taking Hoffman at a discount would make some sense at 19 or maybe even 13, but at 4 it's a very bad idea.

 

Hudson was hardly the first pitcher to need a second TJS, either. Medlen and Jarrod Parker just this year.

[Guest]

Other than Daniel Hudson, who had to have it again, who else has just flat out not came back?(Vizcaino's pitching, so he doesn't count)

 

The extreme vast majority come back and come back with the same velo. The more I read, the more I go back to thinking Hoffman at 4 and at a huge discount is the best option for us. Even IF Rodon were there, with his shoulder concerns.

 

Dae-Eun Rhee only needed one surgery and his stuff never came all the way back.

[fromthestretch]

Other than Daniel Hudson, who had to have it again, who else has just flat out not came back?(Vizcaino's pitching, so he doesn't count)

 

The extreme vast majority come back and come back with the same velo. The more I read, the more I go back to thinking Hoffman at 4 and at a huge discount is the best option for us. Even IF Rodon were there, with his shoulder concerns.

 

It's a spectrum. Vizcaino is back, but he's a reliever and not because his stuff isn't good enough. Other guys may lose velocity, or have to adjust their repertoire to avoid throwing a certain pitch or pitch mix. Others still will just be the guys more prone to other injuries that don't necessarily require TJS.

 

Taking Hoffman at a discount would make some sense at 19 or maybe even 13, but at 4 it's a very bad idea.

 

Hudson was hardly the first pitcher to need a second TJS, either. Medlen and Jarrod Parker just this year.

 

Beachy, too.

[davell]

I'm searching and maybe I forgot what exactly I saw-But I thought I saw that 83% of all major league pitchers that have had it, make it back, with the vast majority showing the same or increased velocity.

 

I found the 83%, it was a study between 1986 and 2012 and included fringe guys. So the 83% is actually skewed down with fringe types. But I can't find the velo %.

[Guest]

Eric W (NYC) If the Cubs ended up drafting Jackson, do you think they could get him to stick at C? Is the reason why you believe it is unlikely he will stick there because he has expressed a preference to move?

 

Klaw He told me directly he's happy to continue catching; I think the concern is that the bat is more advanced than the glove and he might be ready as a hitter before he's ready as a catcher. He can catch, though, both receiving and throwing.

 

Klaw I don't think that showing power indicates figuring out MLB pitching. I think increasing your contact rate and your walk rate would be a better indicator than that. A hitter can still be kind of lost but kill the occasional mistake pitch.

 

John (NoCal) In the scenario where the Cubs take Pentecost in an underslot deal, any idea who'd be around in later rounds to go overslot on? Doubt Hoffman or Fedde are there in the second...

 

Klaw Prep arms. Out of guys like Sheffield, Reid-Foley, Ortiz, Griffin ... they're not all going in the top 27. Heck, I'd call Bukauskus and offer him $2 million and dare him to turn it down.

 

Upset Hornded Frog (Fort Worth, TX) you made a mistake and left Brandon Finnegan off your mock draft

 

Klaw I asked anyone I left off to raise his pitching hand, but Finnegan couldn't.

 

JustaGuy (Guydom) If Brandon Finnegan demonstrates that he's fully healthy between now and the draft, where does he go?

 

Klaw That's more about what the doctors say about his medicals than what he shows on the mound. I wouldn't take him in the first round at this point, given the issue and TCU's history with Purke and Winkler. Someone will probably take him in the back half of the round if their doctors clear him.

 

El Tigere (Boston) Any chance Tyler Beede falls to the Red Sox?

 

Klaw None. Not sure if they'd take him, anyway. Teams are backing away like mad.

[Deeg]

I think it's maybe 40-60 one of the top three falls to the Cubs, and 80-20 it's Kolek if one does. Philosophically I agree with their preference for hitters with picks this high, but if one of the big three does drop, I think you have to risk it. There's just no one position player that stands out.

 

I also don't get the stampede to move Jackson off C if you draft him. He might make the majors sooner as an outfielder - so what? Don't you need a catcher at some point? If Jackson can catch, that's where his peak value is. If he can't, I wouldn't even consider him at 4.

[Outshined_One]

Other than Daniel Hudson, who had to have it again, who else has just flat out not came back?(Vizcaino's pitching, so he doesn't count)

 

Luke Hagerty. He had TJS (can't remember if it was botched or just unsuccessful), had a long time off, came back for a bit, and fell off the planet.

[Tryptamine]

Remember Robert Whitenack? He was having a break out season then had TJS and came back. He got released like 3 months later because his velocity and stuff was just entirely gone.

[Guest]

Ugh, Kiley McDaniel's first mock: http://mlb.scout.com/2/1403161.html

 

1. Rodon

2. Kolek

3. Aiken

4. Nola

 

ANALYSIS: The Cubs were also heavy on Hoffman but after Tommy John surgery, he isn't an option here. They'd gladly take Kolek if he's here, but otherwise will have their pick of a big second tier of talent. Prep bats Nick Gordon and Alex Jackson and college arms Brandon Finnegan and Aaron Nola are the leading candidates here. With a number of power bats in the system, Jackson seems unlikely and Finnegan is yet to return to form after some arm soreness, so he'd be hard to pick right now. Between Gordon and Nola, Nola has the most momentum here, fits the Cubs pre-spring preference of an advanced college arm and should come a good bit below slot.

[neely crenshaw]

Other than Daniel Hudson, who had to have it again, who else has just flat out not came back?(Vizcaino's pitching, so he doesn't count)

 

The extreme vast majority come back and come back with the same velo. The more I read, the more I go back to thinking Hoffman at 4 and at a huge discount is the best option for us. Even IF Rodon were there, with his shoulder concerns.

 

It's a spectrum. Vizcaino is back, but he's a reliever and not because his stuff isn't good enough. Other guys may lose velocity, or have to adjust their repertoire to avoid throwing a certain pitch or pitch mix. Others still will just be the guys more prone to other injuries that don't necessarily require TJS.

 

Taking Hoffman at a discount would make some sense at 19 or maybe even 13, but at 4 it's a very bad idea.

Agreed, I was hoping/dreaming he might fall to 2nd round.

[Guest]

Additional stuff of interest from Kiley's mock:

 

ANALYSIS: The Astros decision has been narrowed down to Rodon and Aiken, but it's far from decided right now. We didn't learn who the Astros chose with their last two #1 overall picks until they announced it and, in both cases, the final decision wasn't made until the last few days before the draft, if not draft day itself. The Astros know the track record of #1 overall picks (read: top talent) is better than every other pick, but also aren't afraid to go below slot for the guy they want and won't shy from bucking industry consensus. The interesting decision here is to take the high school arm that checks every box and is the slight industry preference as the top talent or take the college arm with a high upside but lots yellow flags that are starting to add up. The industry perceives that Houston is feeling some heat about getting some results at the big league level soon and that will drive this decision with the talent basically a coin flip. GM Jeff Luhnow has seen Rodon pitch well a couple times down the stretch as his stuff has been better than it was early in the season. I would take Aiken here, in part because he'll likely be cheaper than Rodon (who is advised by Scott Boras), but this isn't a vacuum for Houston. Even those like me who are low on Rodon still think that, in a bad scenario, he's a league average starter and quickly, so it's hard to knock the decision.

 

Again, since we were just talking about Freeland:

 

ANALYSIS: The Rockies are hoping Nola gets here, but Freeland fits the bill here of a sinkerballer that could keep the ball in the yard in Denver. There are some concerns about his elbow, but he's been healthy and performed all year and his similarities to White Sox lefty Chris Sale make teams more comfortable with the more unique part of his delivery. One scouting director went so far to say, "Sale has made Freeland a lot of money."

 

Gordon goes 5, Hoffman 6, Jackson 10, Fedde 29.

[wekim81]

Ugh, Kiley McDaniel's first mock: http://mlb.scout.com/2/1403161.html

 

1. Rodon

2. Kolek

3. Aiken

4. Nola

 

ANALYSIS: The Cubs were also heavy on Hoffman but after Tommy John surgery, he isn't an option here. They'd gladly take Kolek if he's here, but otherwise will have their pick of a big second tier of talent. Prep bats Nick Gordon and Alex Jackson and college arms Brandon Finnegan and Aaron Nola are the leading candidates here. With a number of power bats in the system, Jackson seems unlikely and Finnegan is yet to return to form after some arm soreness, so he'd be hard to pick right now. Between Gordon and Nola, Nola has the most momentum here, fits the Cubs pre-spring preference of an advanced college arm and should come a good bit below slot.

I like it. I want a college pitcher still. And if Nola (or Freeland) will take well below slot, then we can roll that money into later picks.

[davell]

BA has us passing on Kolek, to take Freeland lol.

[Guest]

@keithlaw: Hartford lefty Sean Newcomb 93-94 in the first here at Stony Brook. About 30 scouts here with Seattle especially heavy.

 

Apparently pitchers from the north can get hurt too:

 

@NathanRode: RHP Scott Blewett, who has skipped last 2 starts now w/ shoulder stiffness, will take 10 days off before getting back on the bump. #mlbdraft

[RammyFanny]

So BA and Law both have Alex Jackson at 2, with BA also mentioning that the White Sox would like a shot at Jackson too. Maybe one of the 3 does fall. Although with pitchers dropping like flies i'm not so sure I wouldn't just want Jackson since everyone else seems to.

[Guest]

BA has us passing on Kolek, to take Freeland lol.

 

Clearly no one knows what's going on but BA definitely has taken a hit since Callis left. Anyways, their mock:

 

1. Rodon

2. Jackson - just like Keith Law

3. Aiken

4. Freeland

4. CUBS: Here’s where it gets interesting. The Cubs want a college pitcher, but Rodon is unlikely to fall this far, leaving Kolek and his 100 mph fastball staring them in the face. Kolek is such an outlier, however, that teams aren’t sure what to make of him. It’s not only his velocity and height (6-foot-5), but at 250 pounds he’d be the biggest high school pitcher ever drafted in the first round by weight, bigger than Indians 1998 first-rounder C.C. Sabathia (who was listed at 6-foot-6, 240 pounds when drafted) and even Orioles 2009 first-rounder Matt Hobgood (listed at 6-5, 245).Kolek’s extreme velocity, at a time when every other hard-throwing prep pitcher, it seems, is having Tommy John surgery, further complicates matters.Kolek’s unique combination appears to be dropping him down boards. The same is true of Finnegan, who was projected in this slot last time. The Cubs still prefer a college pitcher, and Evansville’s Kyle Freeland has been burning up boards with his stellar season. The tall lefty is in play this high and won’t get out of the first 10 picks if he doesn’t falter down the stretch.

5. Gordon

6. Nola

7. Kolek

21. Hoffman

23. Fedde

[Guest]

So BA and Law both have Alex Jackson at 2, with BA also mentioning that the White Sox would like a shot at Jackson too. Maybe one of the 3 does fall. Although with pitchers dropping like flies i'm not so sure I wouldn't just want Jackson since everyone else seems to.

 

Yep, I'm already very wary of pitchers and this season's rash of TJS has not helped. I think I'd take Aiken if he were there but I might prefer Jackson to him even (and I definitely prefer Jackson to Kolek and Rodon). A top 5 pick is so valuable and draft success is so volatile; I'd rather not add the additional risk of pitcher injuries to it.

[Guest]

MLB.com's first mock via Jonathan Mayo: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mock-draft-pitchers-aplenty-in-first-round?ymd=20140516&content_id=75655476&vkey=news_mlb

 

Next week will be Jim Callis' turn.

 

1. Astros: Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State

A slow start left Rodon's status as the top pick in question, and one of the big high school pitchers below could still be Houston's choice, but here's saying the N.C. State lefty has done enough to reclaim the spot.

 

2. Marlins: Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd HS (Texas)

The Marlins love left-handed pitching, and there'd be nothing wrong with Brady Aiken here, but the size and pure stuff of Kolek is too hard to pass up.

 

3. White Sox: Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (Calif.)

The White Sox might be in the best spot. They can just take whichever of the top three arms is available.

 

4. Cubs: Alex Jackson, C/OF, Rancho Bernardo HS (Calif.)

This might be the first place where the injury to Hoffman is really felt. Jackson is considered by many to be the best all-around hitter in the class.

 

5. Twins: Nick Gordon, SS, Olympia HS (Fla.)

Dee's brother and Flash's son will be able to stay at shortstop and has added strength, making him a better all-around prospect.

 

Freeland at 7, Nola at 8, Hoffman at 18, Fedde at 34 to the Cardinals.

[CubsWin]

BA has us passing on Kolek, to take Freeland lol.

Here's a BA game report on Freeland from April.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/game-report-evansvilles-kyle-freeland/

[Guest]

@Clint_BA: Evansville LHP Kyle Freeland threw 7 shutout inn last night on 2 hits. Ked 11 of 26 BF vs 2 BBs, working 89-93, touching 94 w/ 4 pitch mix

[A New Era]

So BA and Law both have Alex Jackson at 2, with BA also mentioning that the White Sox would like a shot at Jackson too. Maybe one of the 3 does fall. Although with pitchers dropping like flies i'm not so sure I wouldn't just want Jackson since everyone else seems to.

 

Yep, I'm already very wary of pitchers and this season's rash of TJS has not helped. I think I'd take Aiken if he were there but I might prefer Jackson to him even (and I definitely prefer Jackson to Kolek and Rodon). A top 5 pick is so valuable and draft success is so volatile; I'd rather not add the additional risk of pitcher injuries to it.

 

I don't even know who I want, I'll just let the FO figure this one out. What do you think of Freeland? Jackson over him?

[Starling]

The idea of Kolek falling to the 1.7 spot is pretty funny