2014 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

One of the media guys - I think it was Keith Law - said he had concerns with Freeland's mechanics from a health risk standpoint.

[davell]

One of the media guys - I think it was Keith Law - said he had concerns with Freeland's mechanics from a health risk standpoint.

 

Chris Sale redux?

[Starling]

One of the media guys - I think it was Keith Law - said he had concerns with Freeland's mechanics from a health risk standpoint.

 

I never picked up on that from watching him. If you find the link please post it, because I'm curious now.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Today I'm all in on Jackson, and I hope they move him to the OF immediatley.

[Guest]

Today I'm all in on Jackson, and I hope they move him to the OF immediatley.

 

Why?

[Guest]

Today I'm all in on Jackson, and I hope they move him to the OF immediatley.

 

Why?

 

So he can move more quickly through the minors since he won't be slowed down learning the nuisances of a more difficult defensive position.

[sneakypower]

ALLEGEDLY, McLeod said Jackson was his favorite prospect he's ever scouted. I know I read that [expletive] somewhere.

 

ABTY said it.

 

So McLeod probably doesn't even know who Jackson is.

how long ago were you groveling at this guy's feet for a TV deal scoop?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Today I'm all in on Jackson, and I hope they move him to the OF immediatley.

 

Why?

 

So he can move more quickly through the minors since he won't be slowed down learning the nuisances of a more difficult defensive position.

Not to mention less risk of injury.

[Guest]

Meh. I think actually developing into a major league hitter would take him longer than a guy who is already a catcher developing into a major league catcher defensively.

[Guest]

Meh. I think actually developing into a major league hitter would take him longer than a guy who is already a catcher developing into a major league catcher defensively.

 

One impacts the other, it's part of the reasons that catchers as a position are late bloomers.

[Guest]

Meh. I think actually developing into a major league hitter would take him longer than a guy who is already a catcher developing into a major league catcher defensively.

 

One impacts the other, it's part of the reasons that catchers as a position are late bloomers.

 

Is this just one of those things we believe because it seems intuitive or is there anything real behind elite hitting prospects who happen to be catchers taking longer to be MLB ready than other non-catcher elite hitting prospects (especially given that the threshold for their production is lower)?

[imb]

TINSTAACP

[Gilby]

If the White Sox are adamant about getting a college pitcher and Rodon and Aiken (who has the polish of a college pitcher) are off the board, I could see them going Freeland.

 

btw, the Marlins reportedly love Kolek, but with the Fernandez injury, anyone think they shy away from the flame-throwing Kolek? Maybe go with the less velocity/better control and offspeed in Aiken.

[sneakypower]

btw, the Marlins reportedly love Kolek, but with the Fernandez injury, anyone think they shy away from the flame-throwing Kolek? Maybe go with the less velocity/better control and offspeed in Aiken.

no, hell no, that's like us shying away from SS because of Castro's throwaway year

[Guest]

Select BA scouting reports:

 

Brady Aiken, Cathedral Catholic HS, San Diego

 

Aiken’s advanced feel for pitching and lean, projectable body have made him a big-name prospect for years, but he became a no-doubt, top-of-the-draft talent when his velocity jumped this spring. Aiken’s fastball sat in the 88-91 mph range and topped out at 92 on the showcase circuit last summer, but he spent the winter working out, and he made waves by running his heater up to 97 in an early-spring showdown against Alex Jackson’s crosstown Rancho Bernardo High team. He has sat at 92-93 mph this spring, regularly touching 96, and spots his fastball well at the knees to both sides of the plate. His curveball was already a solid-average pitch last summer at 73-75 mph, but one scout called it “silly good” this spring, a 77-78 hammer with depth and sharp bite. Aiken also has good feel for a changeup, giving him a third potential plus pitch, and some scouts say his slider is another promising offering, though his curve is his calling card. A former football quarterback early in his high school years, Aiken is a standout athlete with an ideal pitcher’s frame (6-foot-3, 210 pounds) and a fluid delivery with minimal effort. He stands out most for his extraordinary ability to command his entire repertoire. The UCLA commit also draws plaudits for his intelligence and ability to make adjustments.

 

Tyler Kolek, Shepherd (Texas) HS

 

Scouts knew about Kolek as one of the top 2014 targets in Texas when he broke his left arm in a collision at first base in March 2013. The injury ended his junior season, but Kolek kept himself in shape. When he went to the tryouts for Texas’ Area Code Games team in late May, his fastball popped 99. A three-sport star who was drawing interest as a defensive end, Kolek decided to focus exclusively on baseball after the ACG tryout. Kolek then spent the summer establishing himself as the hardest thrower in a draft class full of velocity, and has maintained triple-digit radar gun readings all spring, hitting 100-102 mph regularly. Kolek’s fastball sits 96-98 mph thanks to tremendous strength, coordination in his 6-foot-5, 245-pound body and surprising arm speed. Kolek is very athletic in his delivery has a very long stride, even for his size. Scouts consider Kolek’s consistent top-end velocity unprecedented in the draft era for a high school pitcher. His fastball plays up beyond its pure velocity readings because of its heavy plus life, working downhill with sink. His dense fastball will likely be a groundball-inducing offering when hitters make contact. He throws both a curveball and slider, and the slider is a power pitch in the mid-80s that is his best secondary pitch and shows at least plus potential. His curveball has decent shape but he prefers the slider. He repeats his delivery and throws quality strikes. He has shown a changeup in showcases or in the bullpen but hasn’t needed it in games. Kolek can lose his direction to the plate, working from the far first base side of the rubber and occasionally landing closed. But he has cleaned up his delivery this spring, leading to the consistent velocity. He has performed as expected as a potential top-five pick against small school Texas competition, striking out 60 percent of hitters against 6 percent walks. Scouts struggle think think of a physical comparison for Kolek and that lack of analogous players make scouts wonder how his body will progress as he ages. Strike-throwing ability and the development of his offspeed stuff will be the keys to his development, as he has the chance to develop into a power pitcher that fronts a rotation.

 

Carlos Rodon, North Carolina State

 

The son of Cuban-Americans who moved to North Carolina when he was a 9-year-old, Rodon emerged as one of the state’s top pitchers as a high school senior and was being crosschecked heavily when back spasms sapped his velocity and pushed him down the draft. A 16th-rounder of the Brewers in 2011, he spurned more than $500,000 to attend North Carolina State, where his velocity jumped immediately as he firmed up his body and shortened his stride. He hit 97 mph regularly in short stints to open his freshman season, with a slider that immediately became one of the best in college baseball. His slider remains the best pitch in the draft for most scouts, sitting 85-87 mph and scraping 89 at its best with two-plane depth. Multiple scouts have given Rodon’s slider 80 grades on the 20-80 scale when it is on, though some say he relies on the slider too much. More concerning this year was a lack of explosiveness on his fastball for the first half of the season, when Rodon often sat 89-92, as well as below-average command, particularly to his arm side. His changeup was a solid-average pitch last summer, when he dominated Cuba to end his summer with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team and pitched like a big leaguer. It has been inconsistent and often non-existent this spring, however. His listed 6-foot-3, 234-pound frame is an asset for some due to thick, strong legs and durability; others knock him for a lack of athleticism and projection. Rodon’s confidence crosses over into cockiness at times, but his competitiveness gives him a No. 1 pitcher’s mentality. A second-half revival of his fastball velocity back to the mid-90s, tied to improved direction in his delivery to home plate, had him more closely resembling the pitcher who led Division I in strikeouts and strikeouts per nine in 2013, when he led the Wolfpack to its first College World Series trip since 1967. The worst-case scenario for Rodon is a potential closer, but he’s a potential frontline starter with some refinement.

 

Alex Jackson, Rancho Bernardo HS, Escondido, Calif.

 

Jackson burst onto the national scene in 2012, when he led California prep players with 17 home runs as a sophomore, then put on a show at the Area Code Games that summer. In the two years since, the Oregon commit has cemented himself as one of the top power bats in the draft class, and a lock to become Rancho Bernardo’s sixth first-round pick in the last 20 years, following in the footsteps of Hank Blalock and Cole Hamels. Jackson’s muscular 6-foot-2, 215-pound frame is packed with present strength. He stands out most for his plus to plus-plus righthanded power potential, but he also has a solid approach and drives the ball with authority to the middle and opposite fields. He has a loose swing, electric bat speed and a knack for making hard contact. Jackson has another premium tool in his arm, which grades out as plus or even plus-plus, depending on which scout you ask. If an organization wants to develop him as a catcher, most scouts think Jackson can become a solid defensive backstop in time, but his receiving and blocking need plenty of work. He’ll have an impact bat no matter where he plays, so a team could fast-track him by putting him in right field, and he also has flashed promise at third base. He’s a below-average runner but not a clogger.

 

Kyle Freeland, Evansville

 

Freeland hopes to join the projectable Colorado prep products who became successful big league pitchers, from Scott Elarton and Roy Halladay to Mark Melancon and Kevin Gausman.

Just 170 pounds when the Phillies drafted him in the 35th round in 2011, he went to Evansville and earned a rotation spot as a freshman, when he was throwing 85-88 mph. He has grown to 6-foot-4 and 190 pounds, and the quality of his stuff has continued to improve as he has grown into his body and retained a quick arm. He hit 96 mph in the fall after pitching at 89-93 mph last summer in the Cape Cod League, and he has maintained that stuff this spring. Freeland has a loose arm and plus-plus control and projects to have big league command, and his 15-1 strikeout-walk ratio ranked second in the country, and his 106 strikeouts ranked third. Freeland gets swings and misses with his fastball as well as a hard slider in the 85-86 mph range when he’s right. The slider is lethal to lefthanded hitters. He also throws a solid-average curveball that he locates well. Freeland’s changeup can be too firm at times but has good tumble when it’s on. Some scouts aren’t convinced Freeland’s delivery will allow him to start, as he has a bit of a head jerk, but he has shown the athleticism to repeat it and throws a high volume of quality strikes. He rose up draft boards all spring as his numbers popped off both the radar gun and the stat sheet.

 

Nick Gordon, Olympia HS, Orlando

 

Gordon is talented enough that he could have followed in his father Tom’s footsteps as a pitcher or his brother Dee’s footsteps as a shortstop. The quality of this year’s draft class is held back by the dearth of up-the-middle position players, so Gordon, who is the consensus best middle-of-the-diamond player, looks like he will go in the top 10 picks. Gordon has potential to be a rare lefthanded-hitting domestic shortstop who contributes offensively and defensively. He added more than 10 pounds to his wiry 6-foot, 180-pound build over the offseason and this additional strength helped in many facets of his game. Gordon has a chance to be an above-average hitter with a loose, quick stroke that works inside the ball. He has strong bat-to-ball skills, and while he has more doubles power presently, scouts believe he could also have at least average power down the road once he learns to pull the ball, and maybe even above-average. Opinions on his defense differ, ranging from average to well above-average. He has soft hands, easy actions and natural instincts for the position. Gordon has the best arm in the high school class and it is at least plus. Despite being a plus runner in the 60, Gordon’s speed plays closer to average out of the box. Scouts have conviction about Gordon’s makeup, which is among the best in the draft, and say he has top-of-charts instincts. Gordon also has a solid backup option as a pitcher who can run his fastball up to 94 with an above-average curveball.

[Guest]

Casey (Fort Worth): If you are the Astros, who do you take number one and why?

John Manuel: Good afternoon everyone. Based on the information we have, I would take Rodon. He’s been better in the last month or so since improving his direction to the plate in recent weeks. He’s less side to side and more north-south in his delivery, hence the velocity has improved. His slider’s the best pitch in the draft. I think he’ll be a productive big league starter sooner than either of his main rivals to go 1-1, and he has as good a chance to be a No. 1 starter as Kolek or Aiken. I think Aiken’s ceiling & lesser risk are the next-most attractive package. Kolek probably has the highest ceiling but he’s such an outlier, it would be tough to take him No. 1 overall.

 

Allen (IN): Who makes it to MLB the fastest out of this draft? Rodon? Nola?

Clint Longenecker: They are contenders, though Rodon will have to improve his command, particularly of his fastball, and continue to develop his changeup. I spoke with an evaluator who suggested another pitcher for this category, LHP Kyle Freeland. He said that you could stick him in the major league pen in August with his plus fastball-slider combo and at least plus command.

 

Eminor3rd (NYC): Is Kolek a ticking time bomb for injury? Is the risk of throwing that hard that young enough that you'd let him slip past say pick 3?

John Manuel: That’s the approximately $5 million question. The snarky answer would be, of course he is. He’s a pitcher. The better answer, I hope, would be: He’s coordinated; nothing in his delivery screams out red flag according to the scouts I have talked to. He’s certainly got his man strength, and he goes to a personal trainer three times a week and has really improved his body over the course of the past year. If you think he just throws too hard (and I frankly sympathize with that opinion) then yeah, he’s going to get hurt. But he certainly has a body and arm action that scouts believe to be up to the task of throwing this hard for a long time. He’s a big boy. I think he’s going to go out really high. Don’t think he’s going to slip at this time.

[neely crenshaw]

The mock draft I saw had us taking Gordon. I'd like to see them get Beede especially if they plan on dealing Shark. Developing your own Ace seems like a quicker, less expensive way to compete.

Obviously after the Tanaka's signing and what Scherzer turned down, signing a free agent ace will be a huge expense. Trading for one would likely be as expensive in prospects.

Is it possible that Hoffman might fall to the 2nd or even 3rd round because of TJS.

The FO doesn't seem to fear TJS when it comes to upside.

[davell]

There's no way Hoffman is available in the 2nd round. And Beede has fallen to the point he'd be a reach if we took him at 4.

[imb]

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I've come around to Alex [expletive] Jackson

[Guest]

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I've come around to Alex [expletive] Jackson

 

It's pretty defensible after the Hoffman injury, IMO.

[Guest]

The bigger question is what we do when Hahn passes on taking a pitcher and nabs one of Jackson/Gordon.

[imb]

The bigger question is what we do when Hahn passes on taking a pitcher and nabs one of Jackson/Gordon.

 

I was thinking about that the other day. We're not the only franchise (hopefully) scared off drafting a pitcher. I kind of hope the White Sox draft legacy in Gordon if they choose to go the hitter route, they seem the most likely team (for no reason, i guess) to favor lineage.

[Guest]

Keith Law's first mock: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/mock/?season=2014&version=1&source=Keith-Law-Mock-Draft

 

1. Aiken

Analysis: I keep hearing the Astros are down to three names: Aiken, Carlos Rodon, and Alex Jackson, with local product Tyler Kolek likely on the outside of that final decision set. Houston's decision may come down to money -- they'd like to repeat their successful 2012 strategy, where they save $2 million or so on the top pick and reallocate the money to later picks (they have 37 and 42 this year) to acquire more first-round talents who slid into the sandwich/second because of their bonus demands.

2. Jackson

Analysis: The Marlins are on the same three names as Houston, plus Tyler Kolek, but the word around town is that Miami is focusing heavily on bats throughout the draft. The Fish have the most money in their draft pool of any team this year, with extra picks at 36 and 39 as well as their regular pick at 43, and could do just what Houston wants to do, cleaning up with as many as four first-round talents if they play their money right.

 

I've also heard them with Bradley Zimmer, but I think he's a tweener for them -- probably not as good as their best options at No. 2, and clearly long gone before they pick again.

3. Kolek

Analysis: The White Sox want one of the big three arms, so even though early favorite Jeff Hoffman is on the shelf after Tommy John surgery, they'll still get someone they really like. The bet here is that they'd do better financially with Kolek than with Carlos Rodon, but I wouldn't rule out the latter. Everything I'm projecting here is about probabilities, or possibilities, not certainties.

4. Rodon

Analysis: This is close to a dream scenario for the Cubs, who'd love Rodon or Aiken, would like Kolek, and will otherwise have to choose from the next tier; Hoffman's injury hurt them more than it hurt any other club, and that was just driven home further when Erick Fedde blew out. (The TJ epidemic has crept down into college baseball too; potential 2016 first-rounder Matt Krook saw his elbow spontaneously combust this spring as well.)

 

If all three of the top arms go before the Cubs, their mix will include Alex Jackson, Michael Conforto, Aaron Nola, and at least a half-dozen other possibilities, with even a rumor about Max Pentecost on a huge under-slot deal.

[Guest]

Sahadev Sharma on the Cubs' options at 4: http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/05/15/sahadev-sharma-sorting-out-the-chicago-cubs-draft-options-and-preferences/

 

He mentioned Freeland's arm action which scares scouts.

[davell]

Pentecost would [expletive] suck, no matter how cheap he came. I'm hoping Sahadev is wrong about Freeland not being an option.