2014 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

Let me know if there's a report you want on any of these elite guys...

 

Is PG going to release another set of reports?

 

Could you give me Gordon and Jackson, please?

[Guest]

I really hope they don't draft Gordon

[Guest]

Where would Gausman have gone in this draft? 4th at worst?

 

Just trying to gage Nola a bit more.

 

I think it depends on where you stand with Kolek and some of the other guys in the top 5 but I could see someone build a case for Gausman as high as #2 behind Aiken. He's a more highly thought of prospect coming out of college than Nola, but that obviously doesn't mean Gausman will end up with the better pro career.

[davell]

Thanks UK.

[UK1679666180]

1. Aiken

2. Jackson

3. Gordon

4. Rodon - pretty nervous about that shoulder

 

The typical drop in velo and some of Rodons mechanics scare me.

 

I don't know what to think about Gordon. Avg offense and he's still an likely AS and always fall back to the mound if he falls to hit.

[Guest]

1. Aiken

2. Jackson

3. Gordon

4. Rodon - pretty nervous about that shoulder

 

The typical drop in velo and some of Rodons mechanics scare me.

 

I don't know what to think about Gordon. Avg offense and he's still an likely AS and always fall back to the mound if he falls to hit.

Gordon doesn't quite have the same kind of wheels as Dee, right?

[davell]

1 Aiken

2 Rodon

3 Kolek

4 Jackson, Nola, or Freeland

[UK1679666180]

1. Aiken

2. Jackson

3. Gordon

4. Rodon - pretty nervous about that shoulder

 

The typical drop in velo and some of Rodons mechanics scare me.

 

I don't know what to think about Gordon. Avg offense and he's still an likely AS and always fall back to the mound if he falls to hit.

Gordon doesn't quite have the same kind of wheels as Dee, right?

 

He's only slightly above average.

[Guest]

1. Aiken

2. Jackson

3. Gordon

4. Rodon - pretty nervous about that shoulder

 

The typical drop in velo and some of Rodons mechanics scare me.

 

I don't know what to think about Gordon. Avg offense and he's still an likely AS and always fall back to the mound if he falls to hit.

 

Yeah, there are quite a few red flags with Rodon.

[Guest]

Matt (Chicago): If Rodon doesn't fall to the Cubs,does Nola offer value to them @ #4 or are they better off with Gordon or Pentecost-underslot?

 

Pre-Draft Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Nola would be my target if I'm Chicago. I'd look to lock in a pre-draft deal if at all possible, but it might be tough if there is strong interest directly after Chicago. That's a fast moving mid-rotation arm that can start providing value next year. It's rich for Pentecost (to my mind) even on a pre-draft deal. Gordon is a worthy target, but there is so much pitching in the class and its such an organizational need I don't see the merit in using your biggest splash on another bat.

 

msimotes (Kalamazoo): Any chance Beede falls to the Cubs with their second overall pick?

 

Pre-Draft Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Sure. The wildcard there is Beede's asking price. I was on hand for the Beede/Nola matchup when his draft stock was at its apex, and walked away with the same concerns I had last summer -- the stuff was top shelf but its held together with chewing gum and toothpicks. I'm not sure his best fit won't be as a shutdown closer. He could be absolutely nasty in that role.

 

Jack (Chicago): Do you think Alex Jackson could be a catcher at the MLB level? Do you think he should be a catcher at the MLB level?

 

Pre-Draft Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Yes, I think he has the tool set to be a good catcher at the MLB level. As for whether or not he should, I think that depends on how has bat plays. I'd certainly start him behind the plate and see how it goes. So long as he is hitting his developmental checkpoints on both sides, I leave him there. The first sign that the bat is stalling, however, I'm moving him out to right field and telling him to focus on hitting.

 

I guess I'm also considering where I grab him. I'm willing to take on more developmental risk with a $2.5 MM bonus than I am with a $5 MM bonus.

 

Cubsfan (Chicago): Nick, if Cubs draft Nick Gordon next week, do you think it is a reach? Most people say he can't hit, is it true?

 

Pre-Draft Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Gordon struggled to make hard contact last summer and through the fall but has been a different guy this spring after putting on some muscle and starting to wield the barrel with more authority. It wouldn't be a reach to pop him at 4th overall, though I'd hope to save around $1 MM in cap space if I'm doing that.

 

Nick (Chicago): What would factor in the White Sox NOT taking Rodon if available? Is it just the potential price tag, or do they actually think Kolek is better?

 

Pre-Draft Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Asking price, workload, inconsistent performance, less than surgical command, could all factor into not selecting Rodon. As for whether or not Kolek is better, that comes down to preference. To me he's a big power arm with a good body, relatively low mileage, and the chance to develop a plus breaking ball. There's not great present command and he doesn't yet consistently execute, so I'm struggling to see more than $3.5 MM price tag.

 

Shawn (Cubicle): As far as teams passing on a better player in order to get similar, but slightly lower rated player who will sign under slot (especially in the top half of the draft)- the savings is used in lower rounds, when in theory the talent is probably less and talent difference between picks is marginal, why not just take the better player in the first place even if he costs slot?

 

Pre-Draft Chat with Nick J. Faleris: It's probably too complicated a question to fully unwrap in a chat format, but essentially the decision as to whether or not to go under slot to shift money around comes down to opportunity. Who are your specific targets that you want to spend that extra money on and are you going to have the opportunity to draft them?

 

You also need the opportunity to find someone that makes sense on an under slot deal. Simply moving down your draft board and picking a name doesn't cut it, because you are sacrificing opportunity to fully flex the strength of your position. Ideally you want a profile that is lower on the board because of general industry concerns that you do not fully share. Inconsistent performance/competition, or a non-traditional profile for a particular position. That sort of thing.

 

Nola fits the bill for me up top; Gordon might if you believe there is going to be average power there.

 

Dave (Chicago): You said you'd take Nola over Kolek. What's wrong with Kolek?

 

Pre-Draft Chat with Nick J. Faleris: There's nothing wrong with Kolek; he's just a $3.5 MM guy for me, all things considered, and I think Nola falls into the same band with much less risk and a shorter developmental horizon.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

1)Aiken

2)Kolek

3)Jackson

4)Rodon

A man after my own heart.

[Guest]

@KendallRogersPG: #KennesawState C Max Pentecost ties up #Alabama 2-2 in the 5th on an RBI double down the LF line. Pentecost is so, so good.

[Guest]

Law pulls [expletive] out of thin air (if you prefer that analogy) all the time. Callis is certainly connected, but Law places the priority on trying to look like a genius.

 

Still think Keith Law is pulling Conforto out of thin air? Callis' second mock has them popping Conforto too: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article//mock-draft-brady-aiken-remains-no-1-choice-for-astros?ymd=20140602&content_id=77857076

 

1. Astros: Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (Calif.)

Houston's decision likely will come down to Aiken, Rodon and Jackson, none of whom is expected to command the full $7,922,100 assigned pick value. There's increasing chatter that the Astros might play it safer by going for a bat, but the guess here is that they'll pop the Draft's top-rated prospect in Aiken.

 

2. Marlins: Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State

Miami is focusing on the same players as Houston. Ownership may prefer Rodon and some senior club officials may want Jackson, the best bat in the Draft. It's unclear whether the Marlins would take Aiken if he's available.

 

3. White Sox: Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd HS (Texas)

Rodon may be No. 1 on Chicago's board and likely would be the pick here, but signability could be an issue. The White Sox almost certainly will take an arm and it's hard to ignore the upside of Kolek, the hard throwing high schooler. If the South Siders prefer collegians to prepsters, polished Louisiana State right-hander Aaron Nola could be their man.

 

4. Cubs: Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon State

Chicago wants pitching and covets Rodon, who could land here if Jackson goes to Houston or Miami. But if Rodon goes in the top three, the Cubs may not like any of the arms enough to take them this high. Hoffman would have been an obvious target before he blew out his elbow, and the Cubs could pass on Kolek or Nola. There's a growing sense that they'll save money to go after pitching later by cutting a deal with Conforto or Kennesaw State catcher Max Pentecost. Chicago could take Gordon, but it doesn't appear to be in on Jackson.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

So the FO, for some mysterious reason, doesn't like Kolek or Jackson now. [expletive] my life.

[Guest]

So the FO, for some mysterious reason, doesn't like Kolek or Jackson now. [expletive] my life.

 

There is no mystery why they don't like Kolek.

[Cubswin11]

So the FO, for some mysterious reason, doesn't like Kolek or Jackson now. [expletive] my life.

I think it's been reported for a while now that they weren't/aren't that high on Kolek.

[jersey cubs fan]

Conforto is really going to test my commitment to the college bats only early in the draft preference.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

the "now" part was for Jackson. although I still don't understand why they don't like Kolek but are fawning over Rodon like he's so much safer.

[sneakypower]

4. Cubs: Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon State

Chicago wants pitching and covets Rodon, who could land here if Jackson goes to Houston or Miami. But if Rodon goes in the top three, the Cubs may not like any of the arms enough to take them this high. Hoffman would have been an obvious target before he blew out his elbow, and the Cubs could pass on Kolek or Nola. There's a growing sense that they'll save money to go after pitching later by cutting a deal with Conforto or Kennesaw State catcher Max Pentecost. Chicago could take Gordon, but it doesn't appear to be in on Jackson.

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1576889/throw-up-step-brothers-o.gif

[Cubswin11]

the "now" part was for Jackson. although I still don't understand why they don't like Kolek but are fawning over Rodon like he's so much safer.

It's not all about safety. Rodon has a legit secondary pitch (slider) while Kolek doesn't yet and also seems to have command issues.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I certainly hope it's Pentecost if they go the college bat route.

[mul21]

I certainly hope it's Pentecost if they go the college bat route.

 

I'm getting to the point where I lean that direction too. As much as you don't draft for need, it sure would be nice to have an actual catching prospect in the system.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

the "now" part was for Jackson. although I still don't understand why they don't like Kolek but are fawning over Rodon like he's so much safer.

It's not all about safety. Rodon has a legit secondary pitch (slider) while Kolek doesn't yet and also seems to have command issues.

Command and secondary pitches can be developed, 100 MPH can't. Also, he doesn't seem to have control issues (8 walks in 60 innings), which speaks well for his ability to develop command.

[jersey cubs fan]

the "now" part was for Jackson. although I still don't understand why they don't like Kolek but are fawning over Rodon like he's so much safer.

It's not all about safety. Rodon has a legit secondary pitch (slider) while Kolek doesn't yet and also seems to have command issues.

Command and secondary pitches can be developed, 100 MPH can't.

 

History is littered with hard throwing high school pitchers that flamed out. It's not the least bit confusing why any team would prefer to draft somebody other than Kolek.

[Tryptamine]

I've managed to sell myself on Pentecost, but I don't know if I could do the same thing on Conforto. If it's not a premium position I need more upside in the bat than that.

 

edit: This draft absolutely sucks.

Edited June 2, 2014 by Tryptamine