2014 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

Jonathan Mayo mock: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mock-draft-brady-aiken-gets-nod-at-no-1-over-carlos-rodon?ymd=20140530&content_id=77457338

 

1. Houston Astros: Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (Calif.)

I still think there's a good chance Carlos Rodon is the guy here, but there's been enough talk about Aiken being the best talent in the Draft to make me switch it up this time.

Mayo's last pick: Rodon | Callis' last pick: Aiken

 

2. Miami Marlins: Alex Jackson, C/OF, Rancho Bernardo HS (Calif.)

Tyler Kolek is still a strong possibility, but the buzz surrounding the Marlins and Jackson is too strong to ignore.

Mayo's last pick: Kolek | Callis' last pick: Jackson

 

3. Chicago White Sox: Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State

It's still the same deal for the White Sox: They'll take the best arm on the board. Kolek should still be in the mix but if things blow up, they could look at Aaron Nola.

Mayo's last pick: Aiken | Callis' last pick: Rodon

 

4. Chicago Cubs: Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd HS (Texas)

Rodon's a consideration if he gets by the White Sox, but with him off the board, the Cubs go for the hard-throwing Texas high school product.

Mayo's last pick: Jackson | Callis' last pick: Gordon

[Cubswin11]

Jesse (Minneapolis)

 

What's the lowest and highest Hoffman goes?

Klaw (2:12 PM)

 

I think highest is 4. Lowest could be sandwich round to a team with extra picks - Houston would probably do cartwheels, although Luhnow's glasses would fall off so maybe not.

[Guest]

So is Nick Faleris of BP. He answered a few Cub questions already. I'm waiting till the chat is over to post the highlights.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

So is Jackson to the Marlins a lock now? [expletive].

[Cubswin11]

He answered one of my questions;

 

Tyler (Chicago)

 

If you draft Alex Jackson do you immediately move him off of catcher to advance the bat as fast as possible? Or do you keep him there?

Klaw (2:33 PM)

 

I keep him there because back there he might be a superstar, and he's not bad in any respect.

[RammyFanny]

So is Jackson to the Marlins a lock now? [expletive].

Nah. Law says the owner told them to take Rodon if he's there, and Mayo says there is still alot of buzz with Kolek even though he mocked them Jackson.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel's second mock:

 

1. Aiken - says the Astros haven't decided and are picking between Aiken, Rodon, Jackson, Gordon, Nola and Kolek

2. Rodon

3. Kolek

4. Nola

ANALYSIS: This is where th draft really opens up, with rumors of Nola, Pentecost, Gordon, Hoffman, Finnegan, Conforto and Freeland all coming up here. I think it's down to Nola, Pentecost and Gordon with the two college players as the real decision in the room. I think Chicago ignores price and take the guy it wants, which I believe is Nola.

 

He also has linked the Cubs to LA prep RHP Jack Flaherty, like Law:

 

Prep RHP Jack Flaherty is a target of the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals and Indians for an over-slot bonus in the sandwich or 2nd rounds. He could easily go as high as the Dodgers at 22 but the high asking price and multiple teams after the 1st round likely having bonus money saved up will likely push him down into the 30's or 40's.

 

Lastly, if Jeff Hoffman (unlikely) or Erick Fedde (some chance) make it to the comp rounds, they are believed to be the primary targets for a number of large bonus pool teams. Both will likely raise their signability number if they sneak through the late first round, but most expect them to go in the top 34. Mississippi State lefty Jacob Lindgren and newly-healthy USC-Upstate righty Chad Sobotka are both rising; Lindgren shouldn't get out of the 2nd round and Sobotka won't last long in the 3rd round if he gets there.

[Guest]

Kyle (Visalia)

At this point, what do you think the odds are that someone other than Aiken go 1/1?

Klaw

Maybe 40% Aiken, 30% Rodon, 30% Alex Jackson? Those are the only three names they're on, and I might be overweighting Jackson a little.

 

Sean (Chicago, Il)

You have the Cubs taking Conforto (and considering other college players) with the fourth pick. Why don't you think they'd take Jackson or Gordon if either is available?

Klaw

I don't think they're on Gordon at that pick. I know they like Jackson but think they prefer other players - and there's a financial benefit to taking a player who'll sign for a little less money so you can allocate the savings to your next pick. I'd linked them to Jack Flaherty, a HS RHP from Giolito's/Austin Wilson's old HS, with that second pick.

[davell]

Has Marlin said anything draft related recently?

[Guest]

Yesterday:

 

Hope Rodon or Aiken fall for some reason otherwise it could be a very interesting pick.

 

He also previously said he'd be shocked if Kolek was the pick.

[davell]

Yesterday:

 

Hope Rodon or Aiken fall for some reason otherwise it could be a very interesting pick.

 

He also previously said he'd be shocked if Kolek was the pick.

 

 

Thanks TT. It does seem like Kolek is an extreme longshot from basically everything now.

[Guest]

@jimcallisMLB: Keep hearing from people that Mount Pleasant (TX) HS RHP Michael Kopech will go in the 1st rd, likely in the top 25 picks. @MLBDraft

 

@johnmanuelba: Got some feedback on the latest mock #mlbdraft Sounds like guy we're light on, now moving into 1st round, is Texas HS RHP Michael Kopech.

 

Both tweeted at the same time...

[TruffleShuffle]

Yesterday:

 

Hope Rodon or Aiken fall for some reason otherwise it could be a very interesting pick.

 

He also previously said he'd be shocked if Kolek was the pick.

 

this makes me very happy, because personally i find kolek terrifying as a prospect. i keep having colt griffin flashbacks.

[Guest]

Michael Conforto, Dylan Davis (day two OF) and Oregon St are on ESPNU now.

[Guest]

Beede set a new career high with 14 strike outs. Looked great in his last start before the draft. 11 looking.

 

(I believe you can go back and watch games on ESPN3 if you want to see it.)

 

@kileymcd: Rice's Zech Lemond 93-96 in the 9th per @KendallRogersPG. I'm told Vandy's Tyler Beede is 93-97 & hit 99. Both may have made some $ tonight.

 

@aaronfitt: Phew! Pitcher of the day? RT @VUHawkTalk: Beede's 99th pitch is a 94 MPH fastball and K #14. @keithlaw @aaronfitt @KendallRogersPG #MLBDraft

[Guest]

@kileymcd: I should mention that decision makers largely aren't at regionals, sending out-of-area scouts &pro scouts to get different eyes on prospects

[Guest]

Now:

 

@jimcallisMLB: I'll talk @WhiteSox & @Cubs @MLBdraft w/@MLBBruceLevine & @WayneRandazzo on @670TheScore at 9:40 am CT.

[Fro]

Does Kyle Schwarber have any shot of playing outfield adequately in the pros?

 

He's got the arm for it. Could play LF for sure I think.

 

Not sure why everyone thinks he can't play catcher in the big leagues, but I'm an Indiana alum. He's been much better throwing out runners this year.

 

He was also 2nd team All-Ohio as a LB in HS in Div 1 (Ohio's biggest division), so I'm not sure why the scouts don't think he's athletic.

Edited May 31, 2014 by Fro

[Cubswin11]

What are the makeup issues/concerns with Beede? I've seen Law and at least one other guy mention it, but haven't seen any specific stuff about it. Is it off field stuff, work ethic, etc?

[Guest]

@jimcallisMLB: Heard from a scout at Finnegan start (7.1-4-1-1-1-12): FB was 91-96, SL was 81-83, CH was 83-85. @MLBDraft

 

@keithlaw: Heard from a scout at the regional that Tyler Beede looked the best he has all season in his outing last night.

[Guest]

Luke Weaver is pitching on ESPNU right now.

[Guest]

What are the makeup issues/concerns with Beede? I've seen Law and at least one other guy mention it, but haven't seen any specific stuff about it. Is it off field stuff, work ethic, etc?

 

I've been wondering that as well.

[toonsterwu]

I'm mildly stunned that Nick Howard is largely considered a potential first rounder now. I remember one of my rare times going on a perfect game chat last year, and they weren't all that enthused. I'm not sure he's all that different from last year - still a strike-throwing arm with good arm strength and a solid slider that flashes some plus potential, but now that he's in the pen, he can amp it up to the mid-upper 90's. Honestly, the best comparison might be someone like Cashner, although I think Cashner's breaking ball was sharper coming out, and I think, on paper, Howard is a better strike-thrower.

 

As for our pick, I'm growing a bit partial to Pentecost, despite wanting an arm. I was a big Rodon guy this year, but 2 years of some occasional shakiness worries me, along with the frame issues. I'm ambivalent on Kolek, not having followed enough this spring. Aiken isn't going to be there.

 

As a side note, if we take a cheap senior in the first 10 rounds, I would be fascinated with Artie Lewicki. He was once a decently thought of a prospect 2 years ago, but then had TJ and has had to work his way back (even now, I think he squeezed into BA's top 300). He finally fought his way back to the weekend rotation (no knock on Sborz, although Sborz will probably take Howard's role next year and slide to the pen), can hit mid-90's with the fastball and has a solid slider. Shouldn't be that expensive of a sign.

[Guest]

Pentecost and Kennesaw State are on ESPNU.

 

Nola and LSU get started at 6 PM CT on ESPNU.

[Guest]

I'm mildly stunned that Nick Howard is largely considered a potential first rounder now. I remember one of my rare times going on a perfect game chat last year, and they weren't all that enthused. I'm not sure he's all that different from last year - still a strike-throwing arm with good arm strength and a solid slider that flashes some plus potential, but now that he's in the pen, he can amp it up to the mid-upper 90's. Honestly, the best comparison might be someone like Cashner, although I think Cashner's breaking ball was sharper coming out, and I think, on paper, Howard is a better strike-thrower.

 

As for our pick, I'm growing a bit partial to Pentecost, despite wanting an arm. I was a big Rodon guy this year, but 2 years of some occasional shakiness worries me, along with the frame issues. I'm ambivalent on Kolek, not having followed enough this spring. Aiken isn't going to be there.

 

As a side note, if we take a cheap senior in the first 10 rounds, I would be fascinated with Artie Lewicki. He was once a decently thought of a prospect 2 years ago, but then had TJ and has had to work his way back (even now, I think he squeezed into BA's top 300). He finally fought his way back to the weekend rotation (no knock on Sborz, although Sborz will probably take Howard's role next year and slide to the pen), can hit mid-90's with the fastball and has a solid slider. Shouldn't be that expensive of a sign.

 

If I remember what I read earlier, some of Howard's steam is the thought that he could return to starting since he had success at the Cape as a starter. Hope you can plug him in a big league pen this season, stretch him out in 2015. Not sure how successful you can be doing that; I hate drafting a guy who is already locked in as a reliever so you better be right he can start down the road. On the flip side, I'd love to see Howard and Burdi go in the first round, allowing two guys I'm sure the Cubs would pass on to be picked before 45 so a couple other targets can fall.

 

I like Lewicki. I also like Stinnet at Maryland as another senior though he probably won't come as cheap.