The 2012 Offseason Thread

[Cubswin11]

If only someone would have told the Mariners we were willing to part with Barney AND Lahair last offseason for Felix they could have avoided taking the risk on this contract extension.

[KingCubsFan]

As Gooney said, you don't get awards for being the most efficient team. Its easy on paper to play things out, trade him beforehand, or even let him walk. In the real world though, Seattle did what any other team that actually gives a [expletive] about their players, fans, and perception does in this case: You show him the money.

A team should absolutely strive to be as efficient as possible, as it makes it more likely they'll be a winning team. Signing a player for "the fans" is so dumb. Fans only come out to see one thing: a winning team.

[illiniguy]

As Gooney said, you don't get awards for being the most efficient team. Its easy on paper to play things out, trade him beforehand, or even let him walk. In the real world though, Seattle did what any other team that actually gives a [expletive] about their players, fans, and perception does in this case: You show him the money.

A team should absolutely strive to be as efficient as possible, as it makes it more likely they'll be a winning team. Signing a player for "the fans" is so dumb. Fans only come out to see one thing: a winning team.

Or Wrigley field?

[XZero771679666304]

As Gooney said, you don't get awards for being the most efficient team. Its easy on paper to play things out, trade him beforehand, or even let him walk. In the real world though, Seattle did what any other team that actually gives a [expletive] about their players, fans, and perception does in this case: You show him the money.

A team should absolutely strive to be as efficient as possible, as it makes it more likely they'll be a winning team. Signing a player for "the fans" is so dumb. Fans only come out to see one thing: a winning team.

Or Wrigley field?

 

 

Except attendance at Wrigley hasn't always been great. Prior to the last 10 years or so, it was at or below league average for a long, long while.

[jersey cubs fan]

A team should absolutely strive to be as efficient as possible, .

 

No, they should not. Efficient as possible will leave you at .500 every year with the occasional outperformance year.

 

You should try to be as good as you can, with efficiency being on the mind at all times, but clearly in second place.

[davell]

Of course you WANT to be efficient. But if you think letting a guy like Felix walk, you're naive that it wouldn't affect the bottom line. It's a business first and foremost. It's a nice bonus that he's 26 and one of the top 5 SP in baseball. Like I said earlier, if we find a way to trade for Price, we'll do the same thing. And half the board will erupt with inefficiency [expletive].

[illiniguy]

As Gooney said, you don't get awards for being the most efficient team. Its easy on paper to play things out, trade him beforehand, or even let him walk. In the real world though, Seattle did what any other team that actually gives a [expletive] about their players, fans, and perception does in this case: You show him the money.

A team should absolutely strive to be as efficient as possible, as it makes it more likely they'll be a winning team. Signing a player for "the fans" is so dumb. Fans only come out to see one thing: a winning team.

Or Wrigley field?

 

 

Except attendance at Wrigley hasn't always been great. Prior to the last 10 years or so, it was at or below league average for a long, long while.

True, 2003 really was huge for the franchise.

[KingCubsFan]

A team should absolutely strive to be as efficient as possible, .

 

No, they should not. Efficient as possible will leave you at .500 every year with the occasional outperformance year.

 

You should try to be as good as you can, with efficiency being on the mind at all times, but clearly in second place.

I'm not sure why you equate efficiency with mediocrity. Efficiency and sustained success go hand-in-hand in my opinion. You can't be giving fan favorites huge contracts all the time and expect to be good in the long-run. Your (assumingly) favorite team is a pretty good example of that. The front office needs to do what's best for the long-term success of the team, period. Not only is that a good baseball decision, it's also a good business decision. Giving out inflated free agent contracts rarely does that, which is why good teams are smart about it. You have to pick your spots when you're going to overpay. I'm not saying the Felix Hernandez contract was necessarily one of those, but you have to assume there's a pretty good chance that contract is crippling by the 5th, 6th and/or 7th year. His velocity is already declining pretty steadily.

[Guest]

His velocity is already declining pretty steadily.

Yep. This goes to what I've been repeating about pitchers going through a huge adjustment during their mid-late 20's.

 

Here's Felix's average fastball velocity by year:

 

2007: 96.3

2008: 94.5

2009: 93.8

2010: 94.4

2011: 93.4

2012: 92.4

 

Disturbing trend for a guy you're handing out a seven year contract to, isn't it?

[Sammy Sofa]

His velocity is already declining pretty steadily.

Yep. This goes to what I've been repeating about pitchers going through a huge adjustment during their mid-late 20's.

 

Here's Felix's average fastball velocity by year:

 

2007: 96.3

2008: 94.5

2009: 93.8

2010: 94.4

2011: 93.4

2012: 92.4

 

Disturbing trend for a guy you're handing out a seven year contract to, isn't it?

 

If that's so cut and dry as you're trying so hard to make it seem then why did he actually get better in the middle of that? His strikeout rate has steadily increased, his walk rate has steadily decreased. Are you hinging this on the idea of him suffering a catastrophic injury/breakdown? Almost across the board he's actually improved as his velocity has gone down.

[imb]

by the end of the contract, he'll be throwing 86 mph and striking out 14/9. stats are great

[Guest]

His velocity is already declining pretty steadily.

Yep. This goes to what I've been repeating about pitchers going through a huge adjustment during their mid-late 20's.

 

Here's Felix's average fastball velocity by year:

 

2007: 96.3

2008: 94.5

2009: 93.8

2010: 94.4

2011: 93.4

2012: 92.4

 

Disturbing trend for a guy you're handing out a seven year contract to, isn't it?

 

If that's so cut and dry as you're trying so hard to make it seem then why did he actually get better in the middle of that? His strikeout rate has steadily increased, his walk rate has steadily decreased. Are you hinging this on the idea of him suffering a catastrophic injury/breakdown? Almost across the board he's actually improved as his velocity has gone down.

xFIP's during that same period:

 

2007: 96.3 3.27

2008: 94.5 3.83

2009: 93.8 3.37

2010: 94.4 3.14

2011: 93.4 3.15

2012: 92.4 3.20

 

So, pretty much equally effective. He has been able to adjust to the loss of velocity so far. Will he be able to maintain that level of performance if the velocity drops down to 90? Are you willing to bet $175M on it? What if the velocity loss signals wear and tear that is the precursor of an injury?

 

I'm all for spending money on star players and even overpaying for the right ones. But if I'm going to lock myself into seven year contracts, I'm doing it for hitters.

[Guest]

by the end of the contract, he'll be throwing 86 mph and striking out 14/9. stats are great

Yep, that's how it normally works.

[Sammy Sofa]

His velocity is already declining pretty steadily.

Yep. This goes to what I've been repeating about pitchers going through a huge adjustment during their mid-late 20's.

 

Here's Felix's average fastball velocity by year:

 

2007: 96.3

2008: 94.5

2009: 93.8

2010: 94.4

2011: 93.4

2012: 92.4

 

Disturbing trend for a guy you're handing out a seven year contract to, isn't it?

 

If that's so cut and dry as you're trying so hard to make it seem then why did he actually get better in the middle of that? His strikeout rate has steadily increased, his walk rate has steadily decreased. Are you hinging this on the idea of him suffering a catastrophic injury/breakdown? Almost across the board he's actually improved as his velocity has gone down.

xFIP's during that same period:

 

2007: 96.3 3.27

2008: 94.5 3.83

2009: 93.8 3.37

2010: 94.4 3.14

2011: 93.4 3.15

2012: 92.4 3.20

 

So, pretty much equally effective. He has been able to adjust to the loss of velocity so far. Will he be able to maintain that level of performance if the velocity drops down to 90? Are you willing to bet $175M on it? What if the velocity loss signals wear and tear that is the precursor of an injury?

 

I'm all for spending money on star players and even overpaying for the right ones. But if I'm going to lock myself into seven year contracts, I'm doing it for hitters.

 

Yes, with a pitcher this talented I'm willing to bet big money that this is more due to a pitcher (and ideally his coaches) realizing he doesn't have to blast past everyone to succeed. Nobody is thinking he's going to maintain the velocity he had when he started, but to present the decreasing top speeds on their own as if that's a slam dunk argument that he's cruising for a breakdown is as disingenuous as that list you posted on the previous page.

[davell]

To me, this is the epitomy of poking holes in a signing. The dude is 26 and elite. Sure, hes a pitcher, but damn.......You can count on one hand the guys that are in his class. The odds of developing THAT type of guy is uber-slim. If you'd rather have a bunch of averagish types with no true monetary commitments, fine, but I'd rather take a shot on the truly elite and figure I'll still be OK with cheap, cost controlled guys, if things go bad. At some point, you pull the trigger. If not on Felix, then who?

[Guest]

To me, this is the epitomy of poking holes in a signing. The dude is 26 and elite. Sure, hes a pitcher, but damn.......You can count on one hand the guys that are in his class. The odds of developing THAT type of guy is uber-slim. If you'd rather have a bunch of averagish types with no true monetary commitments, fine, but I'd rather take a shot on the truly elite and figure I'll still be OK with cheap, cost controlled guys, if things go bad. At some point, you pull the trigger. If not on Felix, then who?

To CCP's point, why now? You've got him for two more years. Are you that afraid that he's going to cost significantly more than 5/$137 to retain a couple years from now?

 

And to answer the final question in your post: an elite hitter.

[davell]

To me, this is the epitomy of poking holes in a signing. The dude is 26 and elite. Sure, hes a pitcher, but damn.......You can count on one hand the guys that are in his class. The odds of developing THAT type of guy is uber-slim. If you'd rather have a bunch of averagish types with no true monetary commitments, fine, but I'd rather take a shot on the truly elite and figure I'll still be OK with cheap, cost controlled guys, if things go bad. At some point, you pull the trigger. If not on Felix, then who?

To CCP's point, why now? You've got him for two more years. Are you that afraid that he's going to cost significantly more than 5/$137 to retain a couple years from now?

 

And to answer the final question in your post: an elite hitter.

Why now? Probably a now or never situation honestly. He'd likely wait and test the market if you didn't do it now. As for a hitter? Sure, in a perfect world, they are better investments. But let me know the next time you get a 26 year hitting the market. Personally, I'll take my shot on Felix right now than giving Cano 8 to 10 years at 25 per. I'll also take Felix over the Fielder contract from last year.

[mookie]

Isn't that going to be Stanton?

[KingCubsFan]

Isn't that going to be Stanton?

Andrus, too.

[davell]

Isn't that going to be Stanton?

I seriously doubt it. Can't see him sticking in Miami much longer than 2013. Whoever trades for him will do their damndest to buy out some FA years.

[mookie]

Isn't that going to be Stanton?

I seriously doubt it. Can't see him sticking in Miami much longer than 2013. Whoever trades for him will do their damndest to buy out some FA years.

 

Which is what Seattle did already.

[davell]

Isn't that going to be Stanton?

Andrus, too.

True, he'll hit the market. But is he a difference making hitter? How much money do you give him as a FA? He's not a guy I'd want to invest 100 mill in. Someone will but it'd be as much about the glove as his bat.

[SouthSideRyan]

Here is the list of guys for whom that contact would have been Mike Hamptonish for the team:

 

Pedro Martinez

 

Yeah, what a disaster it would have been to have Pedro Martinez on your team from his age 27-33 seasons.

 

Seriously, what the [expletive] [expletive]?

[davell]

Isn't that going to be Stanton?

I seriously doubt it. Can't see him sticking in Miami much longer than 2013. Whoever trades for him will do their damndest to buy out some FA years.

 

Which is what Seattle did already.

Yeah, which keeps him from hitting the market at 26. My point is true impact guys aren't hitting the open market that early anymore. Which is why it wasn't a bad move for Seattle to go ahead and spend that money on Felix. Tim says its better to spend it on hitting(I'm not arguing that) but I'm saying spending on a 26 year old Felix versus spending more on a 31 year old Cano is no different. The truly elite pitchers-I'd hold onto them.

[XZero771679666304]

 

Yes, with a pitcher this talented I'm willing to bet big money that this is more due to a pitcher (and ideally his coaches) realizing he doesn't have to blast past everyone to succeed. Nobody is thinking he's going to maintain the velocity he had when he started, but to present the decreasing top speeds on their own as if that's a slam dunk argument that he's cruising for a breakdown is as disingenuous as that list you posted on the previous page.

 

It's not a slam dunk in and of itself, but it makes you wonder if the decline will continue, and where the point is when it will start to seriously impact his performance. He has proven he can pitch and not succeed solely though just blowing people away, but I don't think he's Greg Maddux, either.

 

I'm kind of half in Tim's camp on this, at least with regard to the general notion that giving long term contracts to pitchers is a bad idea, and far more ill-advised than giving them to hitters (I'd probably feel safer giving a soon to be 31 year old Cano a similar deal when he's a FA than I would giving a 26 year old Hernandez this one). You just don't see a lot of longevity + dominance combos happen with pitchers, and it's in no way a slight to or a diminishing of Felix's enormous talent. It's just the nature of the beast. Pitchers are a volatile commodity, regardless of their talent level.

 

But the part of Felix's deal that bothers me is that the Mariners didn't seem to get any kind of discount by signing him now. The contract is probably equivalent to the best deal he could have gotten on the open market. In that way, it is much like the deal Votto got last offseason. I expected the M's to sign Felix long term, but I really thought they'd have gotten a better rate for being proactive.

 

All that said, I'd probably have done this deal if I were the Mariners, though I might have waited another year. Felix is an icon in Seattle, and beyond that he's young (though he's got a lot of miles on his arm for his age) and really, really good. But I would have felt very conflicted about it, and Mariners fans should probably have mixed feelings about it as well. It is a ton of risk.