BA, BP, etc. Cubs Top Prospects List

[SouthSideRyan]

Law really has a thing for good defensive shortstops. Lindor at 7 this year, following Hak-Ju Lee last year.

 

Well since Lee worked out so well...

[UMFan83]

#31 Javier Baez

 

Baez might have the best bat speed in the minors, and he certainly has the angriest swing, often reminiscent of John Belushi's samurai character from "Saturday Night Live." (Of course, when Baez was born, Belushi had been dead for a decade, so perhaps I need a more contemporary reference.)

 

His hands are explosive, and the bat speed is so good that he's already got plus-plus raw power and can drive the ball out to the opposite field like he's tying his shoes. He's also one of the least patient hitters in the minors, approaching each pitch in fourth gear, swinging and missing because he doesn't shorten up or otherwise adjust his swing to the situation. In the field, he's quieted doubts about his ability to stay at shortstop; he has the agility and instincts for it, as well as a plus arm, so the only major issue is whether he eventually outgrows the position.

 

He's one of the highest-beta prospects on this list -- he could be a 30-homer shortstop, or he could stall out in Double-A because pitchers exploit him and he can't adjust. I'm willing, for now, to bet on the former.

[UMFan83]

#33 Albert Almora

 

The joke in scouting circles last spring was that Cubs President Theo Epstein didn't just want to draft Almora, he wanted to adopt him. Almora is a natural center fielder who has outstanding instincts, especially when reading the ball off the bat, so even though he's an average runner he plays with plus range and has an above-average arm.

 

Almora starts his swing with a high leg kick but gets his foot down in time, with a very steady, controlled swing that has plenty of hip rotation for power without sacrificing his ability to square up the ball for solid contact. He has excellent hand-eye coordination and doesn't swing and miss much, even with the wood bat. His lack of patience in his pro debut (two walks in 145 plate appearances) was something of a surprise, although he might have just wanted to fit in with all of the Cubs' other hitting prospects.

 

His ceiling is as a high-average hitter with plus defense in center and 20 home runs, although he's going to have to show he can take a pitch now and then to get there.

[UMFan83]

#42 Jorge Soler

 

Soler signed before the new CBA rules on enriching owners at the expense of impoverished Latin American kids went into effect, signing with the Cubs for a $6 million bonus and $24 million in salary over nine years, although he can opt out of the deal if he becomes eligible for salary arbitration.

 

He's a wiry, athletic outfielder with explosive hands at the plate, starting them high and deep but getting them moving so quickly that he has no trouble catching up to good velocity. He doesn't look like a typical power hitter, but he's got the quick-twitch muscles to be able to rotate the bat through the zone and drive the ball out to left-center like an older or more physical player would. On defense, he might be playable in center for now but the Cubs have him in right, which would be his long-term position regardless.

 

Soler only played 34 games last summer after signing, but it's a point in his favor that he struck out just 19 times even though he hadn't faced live pitching on a regular basis in nearly two years. At just 21 this year, he should be able to get to Double-A with the upside of an above-average regular in right who should peak in the 25-30 home run range.

[UMFan83]

#64 Arodys Vizcaino

 

Vizcaino entered 2012 with a partial ligament tear in his right elbow, and in March he underwent surgery to repair it, ending his season before it began, although he did find himself part of a midyear trade from the Braves to the Cubs in exchange for Paul Maholm.

 

When healthy, Vizcaino has electric stuff, a top-of-the-rotation arsenal with a lightning-quick arm, needing work on command and refinement on his changeup a little further to reach that potential -- and, of course, to stay healthy.

 

Before the surgery, Vizcaino would work at 92-96 as a starter and hit 98 when he worked in relief for Atlanta late in 2011. The pitch doesn't sink but does have late life up in the zone. He has a hard curveball that works at near-slider velocity with hard two-plane break and good depth. The changeup has good arm speed, and improving it is a question of feel, something he'll get with reps. His arm works well aside from a lack of extension out front, and he gets on top of the ball enough to get that depth on the breaking ball.

 

The Cubs will likely bring him back slowly this year, so if he appears in the majors at all in 2013, I'd speculate that it would be in relief, with a rotation spot by mid-2014 a more realistic goal.

[UMFan83]

Just Missed Jeimer Candelario

 

He's an offensive third baseman with great rhythm at the plate and a smooth swing, showing just enough to make you think he can stay at third base. I'd just like to see the offensive skill set translate into a little more performance before buying in all the way, because the defense will never be a plus. If you squint, you might see a Pablo Sandoval future here.

[Guest]

Thanks!

[UMFan83]

KLaw is doing a chat right now..only 2 Cubs related questions so far

 

Hey Look (I'm on the Internet)

 

Obligatory Klawchat Dan Vogelbach question

 

Klaw

(3:09 PM)

Obligatory reference to his weight

 

Colin (Chicago)

 

How close was Pierce Johnson?

 

Klaw

(3:16 PM)

Wasn't. Arm action scares me. Would at least like to see a full healthy year first, since he's had so much forearm trouble.

[UMFan83]

Another one

 

Joe (Chicago)

 

The Cubs have the #2 pick in the draft this year. Mark Appel, Ryne Stanek and Austin Meadows are all possibilities. Which player do you believe the Cubs should draft at that spot? Should they go with the best pitcher available to continue building depth in the organization or go with the best available player even if it isn't a pitcher?

 

Klaw

(3:33 PM)

You forgot Sean Manaea, Austin Wilson, maybe Jonathan Crawford ... it's early, way too early to narrow the list. They should just take the best player available.

[Guest]

@jjcoop36: Just finished my Top 150 for the BA Top 100 discussion. Running it by some scouts. Sneak peek. I have Brett Jackson at No. 150 on my list.

[UMFan83]

Not that this chat is providing any interesting info but 2 more..

 

Keith (Cleveland)

 

How AWFUL is Baez's approach at the plate? I read your report, and you are optimistic he could develop, but how close is he to that big bust territory?

 

Klaw

(3:49 PM)

He can hit a lot of pitches. Just not all of them.

 

Jon (DC)

 

Gigger waste of money? Matt Hobgood, Hayden Simpson, or Geraldo Concepcion

 

Klaw

(3:52 PM)

Concepcion was the worst of the three.

[Bilbo161]

I don't believe there are 5 better shortstop prospects than Baez. He has the best power numbers though Bogaerts (sp?) seems to have pretty good pop. And from the fielding percentages the others really don't seem to have much of an advantage defensively. Am I missing something or just too fixated on our guys.

[Guest]

I don't believe there are 5 better shortstop prospects than Baez. He has the best power numbers though Bogaerts (sp?) seems to have pretty good pop. And from the fielding percentages the others really don't seem to have much of an advantage defensively. Am I missing something or just too fixated on our guys.

 

I'd take Baez over Lindor and Russell but definitely do not judge a defender by fielding percentage, let alone one in A-ball.

[davell]

By most lists, Baez, Bogaerts, and Liriano all are in the 10-20 range. The thing I like about Law's list each year, is he goes out on more limbs than most. They're all fun, but when you get a top 10 type in Bauer getting dealt for a non top 100 type in Gregorius, it shows these lists(which I love) are pretty much useless.

[Bilbo161]

By most lists, Baez, Bogaerts, and Liriano all are in the 10-20 range. The thing I like about Law's list each year, is he goes out on more limbs than most. They're all fun, but when you get a top 10 type in Bauer getting dealt for a non top 100 type in Gregorius, it shows these lists(which I love) are pretty much useless.

 

Is there any web site that allows you to compare players stats instead of just listing individual stats that have to be cut and pasted to get into a useable form? I would have loved to look at more useful defensive stats but it too much cutting and pasting just to get to the point where I can actually compare them.

[KingCubsFan]

You guys missed the best question:

 

Tim (Smithtown)

 

Most overrated prospect by fans.....Mike Olt?

Klaw (3:16 PM)

 

He'd be in the mix. Solid player, not a star. Syndergaard, but that may just be a function of unverified reports he threw 102 plus the coverage he got when he was traded. Also a solid prospect. I'm ignoring the guys like Ruf, Gattis, Junior Lake, Szczur, fringy guys who are treated by their own fans as future stars.

[davell]

While the rankings are certainly arbitrary, I like Parks, then Law. After those 2, I'll say Callis. Hulet next and Sickels and Mayo are at the bottom for me. If we're talking solely about info given by the minor league guys, I'd put Newman and Badler above Callis as well. Parks chatted for six and a half hours yesterday, by the way.

[Guest]

While the rankings are certainly arbitrary, I like Parks, then Law. After those 2, I'll say Callis. Hulet next and Sickels and Mayo are at the bottom for me. If we're talking solely about info given by the minor league guys, I'd put Newman and Badler above Callis as well. Parks chatted for six and a half hours yesterday, by the way.

 

Yeah. Tons of Cubs stuff in here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1005

 

If I have time later, I'll copy and paste quotes.

[Cubswin11]

By most lists, Baez, Bogaerts, and Liriano all are in the 10-20 range. The thing I like about Law's list each year, is he goes out on more limbs than most. They're all fun, but when you get a top 10 type in Bauer getting dealt for a non top 100 type in Gregorius, it shows these lists(which I love) are pretty much useless.

 

Is there any web site that allows you to compare players stats instead of just listing individual stats that have to be cut and pasted to get into a useable form? I would have loved to look at more useful defensive stats but it too much cutting and pasting just to get to the point where I can actually compare them.

Defensive stats are probably a bad way to judge minor leaguers. Most are raw to begin with and have things to work on, they play on mostly shitty fields and you never know if guys are really focusing on 1 or 2 things to try and improve and purposely doing/ignoring something that might affect certain stats. Probably best to go by what the scouting reports are saying on guys defensive abilities from guys who have seen prospects play to judge them.

[davell]

I forgot Frankie Pikiere, I'd put him 3rd, behind Parks and Law.

[imb]

Law really came in with a strange mix of pro cubs sentiment with his usual shots at sczur and volgebach

[jersey cubs fan]

Law really came in with a strange mix of pro cubs sentiment with his usual shots at sczur and volgebach

 

I think that shot was more at the fans who have irrational love of Sczur this time.

[Guest]

Jonathan Mayo's updated top 20: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=chc

 

 

1. Javier Baez

2. Albert Almora

3. Jorge Soler

4. Brett Jackson

5. Arodys Vizcaino

6. Dillon Maples

7. Pierce Johnson

8. Christian Villanueva

9. Junior Lake

10. Matt Szczur

11. Dan Vogelbach

12. Jae-Hoon Ha

13. Jeimer Candelario

14. Josh Vitters

15. Robert Whitenack

16. Duane Underwood

17. Paul Blackburn

18. Gioskar Amaya

19. Alberto Cabrera

20. Trey Martin

[Cubswin11]

Jonathan Mayo's updated top 20: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=chc

 

 

1. Javier Baez

2. Albert Almora

3. Jorge Soler

4. Brett Jackson

5. Arodys Vizcaino

6. Dillon Maples

7. Pierce Johnson

8. Christian Villanueva

9. Junior Lake

10. Matt Szczur

11. Dan Vogelbach

12. Jae-Hoon Ha

13. Jeimer Candelario

14. Josh Vitters

15. Robert Whitenack

16. Duane Underwood

17. Paul Blackburn

18. Gioskar Amaya

19. Alberto Cabrera

20. Trey Martin

Thanks, Almora's stance in his video clip kind of reminds me of A-Rod's. Not saying the skills are similar or that what he projects to, but just a point of reference.

[imb]

Thanks, Almora's stance in his video clip kind of reminds me of A-Rod's. Not saying the skills are similar or that what he projects to, but just a point of reference.

 

wow, you're right. i'd never noticed that.