2013

[jersey cubs fan]

If you think he's damaged goods fine, but Hanson has been better than Delgado in pretty much every way. At some point you should try and get the better player.

 

We aren't ready to go after better players.

When Hanson was 22, he was a much better prospect than Delgado ever has been. But, he's 26 now, getting hit harder and has a noticeable loss of velo. Delgado needs a bit of work on his control, but has 2 starter upside. Is Hanson currently a better pitcher? Probably. Will he be at this time next year? My opinion is no.

 

The real question is who will be better in 2016.

[davell]

If it wasn't implied, I think Delgado will be better going forward. I'm sure you're last comment was facetious anyway, but Hanson would be a FA at that point.

[jersey cubs fan]

but Hanson would be a FA at that point.

 

By then they'll be ready to sign one.

[davell]

but Hanson would be a FA at that point.

 

By then they'll be ready to sign one.

I get it. You're not a fan of what the apparent plan is. Well, I'm not a fan of any results we've had in my lifetime. So, if the smartest group we've ever had running the team(as good of an FO as any in MLB) wants to go about it this way, I'm fine with it. Because I think they're just a wee bit smarter than anyone thats here. Not to mention, they have never even put a timetable on anything. Will we make the playoffs in 2013? I'd give it about the same chance as the Lakers winning the Super Bowl. But after that? Who knows? Not me. And not you either.

[biittner77]

but Hanson would be a FA at that point.

 

By then they'll be ready to sign one.

I get it. You're not a fan of what the apparent plan is. Well, I'm not a fan of any results we've had in my lifetime. So, if the smartest group we've ever had running the team(as good of an FO as any in MLB) wants to go about it this way, I'm fine with it. Because I think they're just a wee bit smarter than anyone thats here. Not to mention, they have never even put a timetable on anything. Will we make the playoffs in 2013? I'd give it about the same chance as the Lakers winning the Super Bowl. But after that? Who knows? Not me. And not you either.

 

I appreciate this line of thinking and don't entirely disagree. However, the current management team have never built a team from the ground up like they are trying to do now. Also, the only thing that tanking a season or 3 guarantees is being bad for a season or 3. No one can know that it will fail but such plans have failed more often than they've worked. The Cubs are in a unique situation that they will be able to spend to keep their good players once (or maybe if) they've developed them. That assumes that the Ricketts will be willing to spend what it takes. Whether they will is certainly debatable.

[Guest]

but Hanson would be a FA at that point.

 

By then they'll be ready to sign one.

I get it. You're not a fan of what the apparent plan is. Well, I'm not a fan of any results we've had in my lifetime. So, if the smartest group we've ever had running the team(as good of an FO as any in MLB) wants to go about it this way, I'm fine with it. Because I think they're just a wee bit smarter than anyone thats here. Not to mention, they have never even put a timetable on anything. Will we make the playoffs in 2013? I'd give it about the same chance as the Lakers winning the Super Bowl. But after that? Who knows? Not me. And not you either.

 

I appreciate this line of thinking and don't entirely disagree. However, the current management team have never built a team from the ground up like they are trying to do now. Also, the only thing that tanking a season or 3 guarantees is being bad for a season or 3. No one can know that it will fail but such plans have failed more often than they've worked. The Cubs are in a unique situation that they will be able to spend to keep their good players once (or maybe if) they've developed them. That assumes that the Ricketts will be willing to spend what it takes. Whether they will is certainly debatable.

I agree. I understand Theo's business talk (i.e., paying for future performance, etc.), but it worries me a little. There are no playoffs for teams whose win/dollar percentage is the highest. If the intent is to bank money for renovations, that's fine, but if the intent is simply to bank money I wish Cuban would've bought the team. We'll have to wait and see.

[javy knows my name]

I agree. I understand Theo's business talk (i.e., paying for future performance, etc.), but it worries me a little. There are no playoffs for teams whose win/dollar percentage is the highest. If the intent is to bank money for renovations, that's fine, but if the intent is simply to bank money I wish Cuban would've bought the team. We'll have to wait and see.

 

I wish you hadn't said this. What you're implying is that we would be spending more money on free agents under Cuban ownership. Do you doubt that Cuban looks elsewhere for a guy to run his team? If you grant that he goes after the best guy available, which is Theo, and that this version of Theo spends money more to your satisfaction, that would mean Cuban was meddling in baseball operations and making Theo sign guys and that is a bad thing.

 

Wow, as I weave through this hypothetical, I realize just how dumb it is. I shouldn't have even responded.

[Guest]

I agree. I understand Theo's business talk (i.e., paying for future performance, etc.), but it worries me a little. There are no playoffs for teams whose win/dollar percentage is the highest. If the intent is to bank money for renovations, that's fine, but if the intent is simply to bank money I wish Cuban would've bought the team. We'll have to wait and see.

 

I wish you hadn't said this. What you're implying is that we would be spending more money on free agents under Cuban ownership. Do you doubt that Cuban looks elsewhere for a guy to run his team? If you grant that he goes after the best guy available, which is Theo, and that this version of Theo spends money more to your satisfaction, that would mean Cuban wa i operations and making Theo sign guys and that is a bad thing.

 

Wow, as I weave through this hypothetical, I realize just how dumb it is. I shouldn't have even responded.

 

You know it's not as black and white as that. Theo takes orders from Ricketts. If I'm going to take what you literally Theo is operating independent of ownership, both of know that's not the case.

 

And just stop treating everyone like an ass-hole. If you really didn't want to respond you could have deleted it

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm not setting "Epstein was the best guy available" in stone.

[Sammy Sofa]

HEY GUYS, KYLE WANTS EVERYONE TO PAY ATTENTION TO HIM.

[Guest]

I think Haren is a great buy low target if the Angels decide to part ways. He had a velo dip this year, but was able to maintain his K & BB numbers. If teams are scared off by this past year, he may be available at a reasonable contract.

[javy knows my name]

I agree. I understand Theo's business talk (i.e., paying for future performance, etc.), but it worries me a little. There are no playoffs for teams whose win/dollar percentage is the highest. If the intent is to bank money for renovations, that's fine, but if the intent is simply to bank money I wish Cuban would've bought the team. We'll have to wait and see.

 

I wish you hadn't said this. What you're implying is that we would be spending more money on free agents under Cuban ownership. Do you doubt that Cuban looks elsewhere for a guy to run his team? If you grant that he goes after the best guy available, which is Theo, and that this version of Theo spends money more to your satisfaction, that would mean Cuban wa i operations and making Theo sign guys and that is a bad thing.

 

Wow, as I weave through this hypothetical, I realize just how dumb it is. I shouldn't have even responded.

 

You know it's not as black and white as that. Theo takes orders from Ricketts. If I'm going to take what you literally Theo is operating independent of ownership, both of know that's not the case.

 

And just stop treating everyone like an ass-hole. If you really didn't want to respond you could have deleted it

 

I did not imply Theo was operating "independent of ownership." I implied that he wasn't being hampered by this particular ownership. I don't think that's a leap at all, given what both have said publicly.

 

The irony of my last sentence was not lost on me. Know that I was being mostly self-deprecating.

[javy knows my name]

I'm not setting "Epstein was the best guy available" in stone.

 

Cool, but then that hypothetical wasn't addressed to you.

[toonsterwu]

I think Haren is a great buy low target if the Angels decide to part ways. He had a velo dip this year, but was able to maintain his K & BB numbers. If teams are scared off by this past year, he may be available at a reasonable contract.

 

I think I'd still prioritize trying to get a veteran on a 2 year deal, say someone like Marcum, than Haren, but if the Angels pay enough, it'd be a nice idea. A good year and you could easily flip him at the deadline. A bad year and you just walk away from a gamble. I'd be curious on an Ervin Santana gamble if they paid enough.

 

That said, there's a part of me that wonders that if they may simply prefer cutting the cord on those two guys and paying the 4.5 million combined buyout (1 mil for Santana, 3.5 mil on Haren) than eating a bit more money and getting average prospects in return. I just wonder if they may think that having the extra money to spend is more important in trying to get Greinke signed and perhaps adding pen help.

[illiniguy]

I'm not setting "Epstein was the best guy available" in stone.

You aren't even a cub fan at this point, you're just a logic troll that is on a cubs' board.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I was thinking a little further ahead, and I'm guessing we'll have to be more proactive this offseason just because of how much work the team will need going forward.

 

Last season, we filled 1b, emptied out the BP, saw CF become a surprise hole, and everything else stayed pretty much the same, so we enter this offseason in about the same shape as we entered last offseason.

 

But after next season, Soriano will be 38 and possibly traded, Garza and DeJesus will be gone, and we may or may not have the catching situation worked out. That's plenty to deal with for one offseason, let alone if we let all our holes from this one carry over.

[Guest]

oh, so we're just completely ignoring the improvement to the farm system now? i knew the current trend you're following is to discredit the additions of minor league talent (because most of them don't pan out, etc), but now you're really going to pretend like progress is only reflected by the major league roster?

 

you don't deserve a good front office

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Huh? I wasn't talking about overall "progress" or anything of the sort. I was talking about the major league roster for the immediate upcoming offseason and the next one after it. Have we gotten to the point where even posts that have nothing to do with the overall state of the organization have to be tagged with "And let's not forget that our front office has done an amazing job adding minor league talent" or else?

 

Soler, Almora, Baez, etc. aren't going to be making an impact on the 2013 or 2014 Cubs unless it's by trade. Vizcaino has a chance to fill out in a regular rotation spot by 2014, which is nice. I figure Castillo is about 50/50 to stick as a long-term catching solution, which is nice. We've got some interesting potential fast-movers in the bullpen in the minors. Other than that, the prospects (who I'm very happy to have and are the beginnings of a very nice farm system, I promise) aren't going to have much impact on the next two offseasons.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Our front office has done a great job at beginning to build up the minor league system.

 

Okay, now that that's out of the way, thoughts on the bullpen for 2013? Going by net WPA, our bullpen cost us roughly 8 games compared to the league average pen, and was the third worst in MLB in the last five years.

 

Here's who we have to choose from that might come back (2012 xFIP):

 

Shawn Camp (4.08) - Just about the definition of an average reliever for his career, though he's lost a bit of velocity. His peripherals were actually a lot better than I expected. Unfortunately, we have no team control on him and he will be an FA this offseason.

 

James Russell (4.35) - Not nearly as good as his ERA would suggest, but still a useful lefty to have in the pen. Plays better in the middle of the pen than at the end, imo.

 

Carlos Marmol (4.39) - We're stuck with him unless someone's dumb enough to buy into the 3.25 ERA. Mop-up role only, imo, unless he miraculously regains his form.

 

Michael Bowden (4.73) - Is there a little something there? My guess is he'll be doing the Iowa-Chicago shuffle all season as one of the replacement arms for injuries and ineffectiveness. Just can't seem to keep the ball in the zone or down consistently, walks too many and gives up too many fly balls.

 

After that, we're into the mass of live young arms, and who knows what we have there. Guys who played at least some in Chicago this year:

 

Alberto Cabrera - Put up nearly identical peripherals to Marmol this year, which is fascinating. Anyone have any idea why a guy would go from walking about 2 BB/9 IP in AA and AA to 7.5/9 in the majors? Has to be just nerves, right? I have high hopes that this guy can take a major step forward in 2013.

 

Jaye Chapman - Maybe has potential as a sort of ROOGY type. Had extreme splits in the minors toward getting right-handers out

 

Jeff Beliveau - Live arm, walked way too many

 

Rafeal Dolis - Live arm, walked way too many, didn't strike anyone out. How does a guy with a 95 MPH fastball fail to miss bats at almost every level?

 

Anyone else even remotely interesting? I don't see anyone else who appeared on this year's roster that I care about.

 

Basically, it seems like we have half a good bullpen, and it's the back half. I'd like to see two more guys brought in that could fill out the top half, but the free agent market sucks for RPs. Maybe some of the guys we trade this offseason like Jackson or Vitters could bring a potentially useful piece.

[davell]

If you look past April, Dolis K'd 22 in 24.1 major league innings.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If you look past April, Dolis K'd 22 in 24.1 major league innings.

 

You know what my answer will be to that. Plus, if you take out April, he walked 15 and gave up 4 home runs in those 24 innings.

[davell]

I think one of Dolis or Cabrera becomes a legit set up guy. 2013? No clue if it happens that quick or not. Neither will open the year in that role obviously. Assuming Marmol is here, I figure we'll also have Russell and Camp back. Camp seems to be a Sveum favorite. My guess is two of Dolis, Cabrera, Bowden, Beliveau, Chapman make the team and we add two vets who are relatively solid one year bets. The pen is a crap shoot unless you spend a fortune on it, so I fifure ours will be better next year, just because odds dictate it to be. But I figure we'll add a legit set up guy who's probably closed for someone in the past. It won't shock me if Tony Zych makes the team out of ST though, if he even gets an invite.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It won't shock me if Tony Zych makes the team out of ST though, if he even gets an invite.

 

Zych is a guy I'm very interested in, too.

 

It feels like there's enough here to have a chance to put together a decent pen, especially if we hedge our bets with some veterans slightly more reliable and costly than Manny Corpas. Just have to figure out why so many of our interesting young arms started walking the world once they got called up.

[Gilby]

Carlos Marmol (4.39) - We're stuck with him unless someone's dumb enough to buy into the 3.25 ERA. Mop-up role only, imo, unless he miraculously regains his form.

 

Are we going to completely ignore the last four months of the season?

[KingCubsFan]

we enter this offseason in about the same shape as we entered last offseason.

 

Anthony Rizzo alone makes that statement ridiculous.