2013

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Carlos Marmol (4.39) - We're stuck with him unless someone's dumb enough to buy into the 3.25 ERA. Mop-up role only, imo, unless he miraculously regains his form.

 

Are we going to completely ignore the last four months of the season?

 

Were the first two months deemed exhibitions retroactively or something?

 

But fine. In the last four months, he threw 43 IP, struck out 59, walked 27, and gave up 3 HRs. That BB rate still makes him barely serviceable.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

we enter this offseason in about the same shape as we entered last offseason.

 

Anthony Rizzo alone makes that statement ridiculous.

 

The implosion of CF cancels out the improvement at 1b.

[bukie]

Carlos Marmol (4.39) - We're stuck with him unless someone's dumb enough to buy into the 3.25 ERA. Mop-up role only, imo, unless he miraculously regains his form.

 

Are we going to completely ignore the last four months of the season?

 

Were the first two months deemed exhibitions retroactively or something?

 

But fine. In the last four months, he threw 43 IP, struck out 59, walked 27, and gave up 3 HRs. That BB rate still makes him barely serviceable.

The time on the disabled list would suggest that the first portion of the season could be deemed "damaged goods".

 

Actually spending time to try to "stabilize" the bullpen would be an exercise in futility.

[bukie]

we enter this offseason in about the same shape as we entered last offseason.

 

Anthony Rizzo alone makes that statement ridiculous.

 

The implosion of CF cancels out the improvement at 1b.

And to think Marlon Byrd was looking to be such a long term solution.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

we enter this offseason in about the same shape as we entered last offseason.

 

Anthony Rizzo alone makes that statement ridiculous.

 

The implosion of CF cancels out the improvement at 1b.

And to think Marlon Byrd was looking to be such a long term solution.

 

We're talking about how the team looks for the next season heading into the offseason. "Long-term" or not has nothing to do with it.

 

The Cubs had nothing at 1b heading into 2012, but figured to have CF locked down. Byrd was being projected as ~3 wins in CF, and Jackson was thought to be MLB ready if anything happened.

 

Now, heading into 2013, Rizzo projects to about 3.5 wins for 1b, but we have absolutely nothing in CF.

 

It balanced out.

[Gilby]

Carlos Marmol (4.39) - We're stuck with him unless someone's dumb enough to buy into the 3.25 ERA. Mop-up role only, imo, unless he miraculously regains his form.

 

Are we going to completely ignore the last four months of the season?

 

Were the first two months deemed exhibitions retroactively or something?

 

But fine. In the last four months, he threw 43 IP, struck out 59, walked 27, and gave up 3 HRs. That BB rate still makes him barely serviceable.

 

No, but your statement seemed as if the last four months didn't count. He was better for a longer period of time than he sucked last season. He's always walked guys, but he also gets a lot of K's and doesn't give up many hits. You know this.

 

xFIP by month last season

April - 7.54

May - 7.77

June - 3.65

July - 3.54

Aug - 2.57

Sep - 3.95

 

Plus he found his velocity after the DL stint. Is he Kimbrel? Absolutely not. Is he a mop-up guy? For a majority of the season, he did not pitch like one.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

xFIP by month last season

April - 7.54

May - 7.77

June - 3.65

July - 3.54

Aug - 2.57

Sep - 3.95

 

Plus he found his velocity after the DL stint. Is he Kimbrel? Absolutely not. Is he a mop-up guy? For a majority of the season, he did not pitch like one.

 

Okay, I actually find that very encouraging. Thank you.

[Gilby]

we enter this offseason in about the same shape as we entered last offseason.

 

Anthony Rizzo alone makes that statement ridiculous.

 

The implosion of CF cancels out the improvement at 1b.

And to think Marlon Byrd was looking to be such a long term solution.

 

I know people like to disagree with Kyle (myself included at times) but he's absolutely right here about CF. CF, going into 2013, cannot be counted on to be fixed in-house. Byrd has nothing to do with that. Instead, our top prospect for the last couple years took a huge step backwards and is no longer the nearly sure thing to be a big league regular.

 

I still have some hope Jackson can fix is swing and head, but I was pretty sure he'd be the centerfielder of the future this time last season. That thought is very questionable, at the very least, right now.

[sneakypower]

i have a growing suspicion none of Upton/Victorino/Melky are going to get over $40M, and that makes all three really intriguing to me

[Gilby]

i have a growing suspicion none of Upton/Victorino/Melky are going to get over $40M, and that makes all three really intriguing to me

 

I think Victorino and Melky will be cheap. Upton, I tend to think he gets 65+. Likely +.

[KingCubsFan]

we enter this offseason in about the same shape as we entered last offseason.

 

Anthony Rizzo alone makes that statement ridiculous.

 

The implosion of CF cancels out the improvement at 1b.

And to think Marlon Byrd was looking to be such a long term solution.

 

I know people like to disagree with Kyle (myself included at times) but he's absolutely right here about CF. CF, going into 2013, cannot be counted on to be fixed in-house. Byrd has nothing to do with that. Instead, our top prospect for the last couple years took a huge step backwards and is no longer the nearly sure thing to be a big league regular.

 

I still have some hope Jackson can fix is swing and head, but I was pretty sure he'd be the centerfielder of the future this time last season. That thought is very questionable, at the very least, right now.

Heading into last offseason, we had a serviceable veteran with a solid (but not great) prospect behind him in CF. How does that cancel out having a 22 year old first baseman coming off a solid year in the majors where he showed the ability to hit for average and power?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Heading into last offseason, we had a serviceable veteran with a solid (but not great) prospect behind him in CF. How does that cancel out having a 22 year old first baseman coming off a solid year in the majors where he showed the ability to hit for average and power?

 

 

We had a 3-WAR projection out of CF and nothing out of 1b.

 

Now we have a 3.5 WAR projection out of 1b and nothing out of CF.

[XZero771679666304]

Heading into last offseason, we had a serviceable veteran with a solid (but not great) prospect behind him in CF. How does that cancel out having a 22 year old first baseman coming off a solid year in the majors where he showed the ability to hit for average and power?

 

 

We had a 3-WAR projection out of CF and nothing out of 1b.

 

Now we have a 3.5 WAR projection out of 1b and nothing out of CF.

 

But you couldn't project 3 WAR from CF going forward, and Jackson was already a hit or miss proposition. It's not like CF being an issue was a shocking new development. It was already an issue. Byrd going (further) to [expletive] and Jackson busting were clear possibilities going in.

[davell]

Heading into last offseason, we had Soto at C. Given the exact situations of him and Castillo, we're better off now. We have Rizzo, instead of nothing. Again, much, much better off now obviously. Barney and Castro are the same, just older. Thats a wash unless we figure they'll improve. Which I suspect Castro will. 3B was nothing and still is. Soriano is a wash. Byrd to nothing? I'd call THAT a wash personally, considering he's not even in the majors now. But at least we "thought" we had a CF. Colvin versus DeJesus? Tough call, but I guess I'd say we were better off last year. Rotation? Had Garza, Dempster, Z, and Wells. Personally, I think Shark, Garza, and Wood is comparable. Because none of us saw Dempster having the first half he did. He was a serviceable mid rotation guy, in mosts eyes. As far as Z? Tough call, but it certainly won't take much of an effort to head into next year with at least a better rotation than last year, even if it's short term fixes. At this exact point in the offseason, I think we are better off now than this time last year.

[KingCubsFan]

Heading into last offseason, we had a serviceable veteran with a solid (but not great) prospect behind him in CF. How does that cancel out having a 22 year old first baseman coming off a solid year in the majors where he showed the ability to hit for average and power?

 

 

We had a 3-WAR projection out of CF and nothing out of 1b.

 

Now we have a 3.5 WAR projection out of 1b and nothing out of CF.

Your first problem was looking at Marlon Byrd as a lock for a 3 WAR season. Your second problem is basing this entirely on a stat that favors CFers given its emphasis on baserunning and defense. WAR is helpful, but I'll take Rizzo over Ben Revere any day.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Heading into last offseason, we had Soto at C. Given the exact situations of him and Castillo, we're better off now.

 

Meh. Post-2011 Soto, Castillo, Clevenger looks like a better situation to me than Post-2012 Castillo/Clevenger.

 

We have Rizzo, instead of nothing. Again, much, much better off now obviously.

 

Agreed.

 

Barney and Castro are the same, just older. Thats a wash unless we figure they'll improve. Which I suspect Castro will.

 

Should be an incremental improvement, at least.

 

3B was nothing and still is.

 

Agreed.

 

 

Soriano is a wash.

 

I'd call it a slight decline, sort of the reverse of Castro at SS.

 

Byrd to nothing? I'd call THAT a wash personally, considering he's not even in the majors now.But at least we "thought" we had a CF.

 

Well, exactly. This isn't about what we know in hindsight. It's about what we thought we had going into the offseason.

 

Colvin versus DeJesus? Tough call, but I guess I'd say we were better off last year.

 

I'm disappointed to call that a wash. DeJesus hasn't been quite as good as I hoped.

 

Rotation? Had Garza, Dempster, Z, and Wells. Personally, I think Shark, Garza, and Wood is comparable. Because none of us saw Dempster having the first half he did. He was a serviceable mid rotation guy, in mosts eyes. As far as Z? Tough call, but it certainly won't take much of an effort to head into next year with at least a better rotation than last year, even if it's short term fixes. At this exact point in the offseason, I think we are better off now than this time last year.

 

I'd call the rotation about a wash, which is pretty impressive considering how much they traded away and Garza's injury/slightly disapponting season.

[davell]

I didn't bother with the pen, but having Marshall certainly would have put 2011 over 2012. That said, I fully expect we'll get better production out of C, 1B, CF, and probably SS in 2013. LF likely sees a slight decline and I figure 2B, RF and 3B(due to lack of options) stay about the same. SP? I think Shark gets better, we replace Dempsters peripherals, but don't get as lucky as he did out of that spot. Garza is a complete unknown. We'll see the same production out of Maholm with Travis Wood and we'll see a much better option than Volstad. The pen will be better by default. Even if we trade away guys at the deadline, I figure we're likely a 70(woohoo, can't wait for the comments that come with that) win team. That gives the FO enough of a base to make serious moves going forward, that term of contract isn't an issue at all from there on out.

[Guest]

It won't shock me if Tony Zych makes the team out of ST though, if he even gets an invite.

 

Zych is a guy I'm very interested in, too.

 

Zych is a very interesting power arm but he absolutely needs to improve his slider before he can contribute at the big league level.

[sneakypower]

i have a growing suspicion none of Upton/Victorino/Melky are going to get over $40M, and that makes all three really intriguing to me

 

I think Victorino and Melky will be cheap. Upton, I tend to think he gets 65+. Likely +.

he's coming off a .298 obp season, so it's hard to see teams being really confident in a long-term commitment

 

4/50 would be pretty sweet if we could swing it

[Little Slide Rooter]

Heading into last offseason, we had a serviceable veteran with a solid (but not great) prospect behind him in CF. How does that cancel out having a 22 year old first baseman coming off a solid year in the majors where he showed the ability to hit for average and power?

 

 

We had a 3-WAR projection out of CF and nothing out of 1b.

 

Now we have a 3.5 WAR projection out of 1b and nothing out of CF.

 

But you couldn't project 3 WAR from CF going forward, and Jackson was already a hit or miss proposition. It's not like CF being an issue was a shocking new development. It was already an issue. Byrd going (further) to [expletive] and Jackson busting were clear possibilities going in.

 

Why are we already declaring Jackson a bust? When he was called up, it was clear that he was going to struggle. He's 24, and still has time to learn even if he starts the season in AAA or as a platoon mate with Sappelt.

 

3B is another spot that should be a big X-factor. I think Stewart's due 1.5 via arb, and there's no reason not to pick that up. There really arent any options, and I'd love to give him another chance to prove that he can be at least a league average 3B following the wrist surgery. Have Vitters starting off at AAA and Valbuena on the bench as a backup.

[davell]

Stewart made a bit over 2.2 last year. He's not due 1.5 in 2013. If we tender him, the least we can offer is 80% of last years salary. OTOH, I'm not sure he'd even get a guaranteed deal from another team at this point, so we could probably offer him a mill or so with incentives and he'd probably take it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why are we already declaring Jackson a bust? When he was called up, it was clear that he was going to struggle. He's 24, and still has time to learn even if he starts the season in AAA or as a platoon mate with Sappelt.

 

We're declaring him a bust because he's 24 and just struck out 217 times in 609 PAs in one season, most of it at AAA.

 

If there are two things in Cubdom I have an unhealthy love for, it's Dave Sappelt and cheap platoons, but I just can't get myself behind that one.

 

3B is another spot that should be a big X-factor. I think Stewart's due 1.5 via arb, and there's no reason not to pick that up.

 

I can think of four reasons:

 

1) He's awful doesn't belong on an MLB roster

2) His wrist is still unlikely to be at full strength

3) He's got four years of service time now, so even as a cheap turnaround candidate, his long-term upside is limited.

4) Valbuena is an all-around better option.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They were talking about the 40-man roster and the Rule 5 draft over at BN, and I thought it was interesting to realize that when the season ends, we'll have an immediate roster crunch. We'll have five players come off the 60-day DL and we have only one player due to become a free agent (Camp).

 

Our various non-tender candidates won't become free agents until Dec. 1 We have a ton of junky pitchers we could get rid of to solve that, of course.

[WrigleyField 22]

They were talking about the 40-man roster and the Rule 5 draft over at BN, and I thought it was interesting to realize that when the season ends, we'll have an immediate roster crunch. We'll have five players come off the 60-day DL and we have only one player due to become a free agent (Camp).

 

Our various non-tender candidates won't become free agents until Dec. 1 We have a ton of junky pitchers we could get rid of to solve that, of course.

Yea, I don't think we're lacking in 40 man spare parts to drop. Still should be somewhat of a crunch though.

 

 

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[KingCubsFan]

They were talking about the 40-man roster and the Rule 5 draft over at BN, and I thought it was interesting to realize that when the season ends, we'll have an immediate roster crunch. We'll have five players come off the 60-day DL and we have only one player due to become a free agent (Camp).

 

Our various non-tender candidates won't become free agents until Dec. 1 We have a ton of junky pitchers we could get rid of to solve that, of course.

Yea, I don't think we're lacking in 40 man spare parts to drop. Still should be somewhat of a crunch though.

 

 

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Just taking a quick look, we could get rid of Corpas, Coleman, Berken, Germano, Mateo, Socolovich, Stewart, Recker and Mather. Wow, there's a lot of trash on that roster.