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Posted

Josh Vitters is hitting .302 with 13 HR's and 48 RBI at Triple-A. He has an OBP of .356, OPS of .866, and has struck out just 52 times in over 300 at-bats.

 

I like the way Valbuena has played 3B for the last month, but he's clearly a stop gap. Why not bring up Vitters soon and give him a look at the major league level? The Cubs would still have him under control for several years if they choose to promote.

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Old-Timey Member
Posted

Vitters 2012 by month:

 

April: .261/.307/.304 (69 AB)

May: .284/.333/.550 (109 AB)

June: .324/.387/.583 (108 AB)

July: .375/.432/.563 (32 AB)

 

He's clearly still progressing as a ballplayer. And that's to say nothing of his defense. Let him finish this season in AAA, see where his numbers plateau. He's still among the youngest players in the PCL.

Posted
Also, not to bag on Vitters because I like him and want him to succeed, but it's the PCL!! Everyone always points this out when guys like Jason Dubois, Scott McLain, Micah Hoffpauir, and Bryan LaHair dominate, so it has to take a little luster off what he's doing.
Posted
I'd expect to see him in Spetember once the PCL season ends. I'd be lying if I said that I wouldn't like to see both him and Brett Jackson called up for the 2 meaningless months after the trade deadline. I don't know how much of a difference that an additional 2 months in the PCL would make for either, and it would be fun to watch Rizzo, Castro, Vitters, Jackson, and Castillo together. It would basically be on the job training for 2013.
Old-Timey Member
Posted
Also, not to bag on Vitters because I like him and want him to succeed, but it's the PCL!! Everyone always points this out when guys like Jason Dubois, Scott McLain, Micah Hoffpauir, and Bryan LaHair dominate, so it has to take a little luster off what he's doing.

Granted, those players were noted because they did it in the PCL at older ages. Vitters is only 22.

 

Also, Vitters is among the top 25 in the PCL in SLG and OPS. Just behind Luis Valbuena.

 

With any minor league production, though, it's more about the method than the results.

Old-Timey Member
Posted

One more thing, Vitters' problem has never been his strikeouts, it's been a lack of power at a traditional power position, and a lack of plate patience to make up the difference in his typical lack of power.

 

Power has improved a lot this year in the PCL, but...it's the PCL. Power does that in the PCL.

 

His plate discipline improvement has been the most encouraging, but only because it's gone from "not a prospect bad" to "pretty bad".

Posted
I'm sure it wouldn't be a smart move put from a personal entertainment standpoint, I wouldn't hate it if he came up.
Old-Timey Member
Posted
Vitters 2012 by month:

 

April: .261/.307/.304 (69 AB)

May: .284/.333/.550 (109 AB)

June: .324/.387/.583 (108 AB)

July: .375/.432/.563 (32 AB)

 

He's clearly still progressing as a ballplayer. And that's to say nothing of his defense. Let him finish this season in AAA, see where his numbers plateau. He's still among the youngest players in the PCL.

 

my god, by september he'll be hitting .450

Posted
if we trade barney, valbuena sliding over to second and vitters playing third next year wouldn't be too bad.

we're going to get 50 walks from our whole infield combined

Posted
Vitters 2012 by month:

 

April: .261/.307/.304 (69 AB)

May: .284/.333/.550 (109 AB)

June: .324/.387/.583 (108 AB)

July: .375/.432/.563 (32 AB)

 

He's clearly still progressing as a ballplayer. And that's to say nothing of his defense. Let him finish this season in AAA, see where his numbers plateau. He's still among the youngest players in the PCL.

 

my god, by september he'll be hitting .450

 

He's 22? I realize it's the PCL, but I thought people were talking like vitters was dead.

Posted
if we trade barney, valbuena sliding over to second and vitters playing third next year wouldn't be too bad.

we're going to get 50 walks from our whole infield combined

 

ostensibly, rizzo by himself will get more than that.

 

Likely, yes. He hasn't shown that in the majors yet (he's swung at anything and everything so far) but his minor league track record would suggest 50-65 walks in a full season.

Posted

My impression was that Vitters' hit tool was so good that it allowed him to consistently make contact with bad pitches, which combined with his lack of selectivity, led to relatively poor numbers. Also, iirc, he was rated fairly highly in raw power in HS.

 

Now if he continues to become more selective and swings at more hittable pitches, could he not "develop" more power? I'm not sure that his lack of power production isn't as much a function of his poor approach as anything.

 

As for the topic, it would be a rash decision to bring him up anytime soon. He just beginning to come into his own and you don't want to deal him a setback.

Posted

Vitters' numbers were rarely really that bad.

 

The big problems were two half-seasons that came after premature promotions and were paired with horrible BABIPs (A+ in 2009, when he hit 238/260/344 in 196 PA with a .256 BABIP, and AA in 2010 when he hit 223/292/383 in 228 PAs with a .247 BABIP). The sub-3% BB rates early in his career were also concerning, but he's been more like a 5-7% guy since 2010.

 

A lot of his other minor league seasons have been underrated, in particular last year when he held his own as one of the youngest players in a pitcher-friendly AA league.

 

He's always been almost a perfect storm of underratedness:

 

A) He's been young for his league every step of the way

B) He was drafted very young so it seems like he's been around forever

C) People have huge expectations for a No. 3 overall pick, despite the fact that few of them become stars

D) He's got a set of tools (especially his hit tool) that won't always produce gaudy minor league slash lines but will likely play up at every level moreso than a fast guy or a take-and-rake with contact issues.

Posted
Vitters' numbers were rarely really that bad.

 

The big problems were two half-seasons that came after premature promotions and were paired with horrible BABIPs (A+ in 2009, when he hit 238/260/344 in 196 PA with a .256 BABIP, and AA in 2010 when he hit 223/292/383 in 228 PAs with a .247 BABIP). The sub-3% BB rates early in his career were also concerning, but he's been more like a 5-7% guy since 2010.

 

A lot of his other minor league seasons have been underrated, in particular last year when he held his own as one of the youngest players in a pitcher-friendly AA league.

 

He's always been almost a perfect storm of underratedness:

 

A) He's been young for his league every step of the way

B) He was drafted very young so it seems like he's been around forever

C) People have huge expectations for a No. 3 overall pick, despite the fact that few of them become stars

D) He's got a set of tools (especially his hit tool) that won't always produce gaudy minor league slash lines but will likely play up at every level moreso than a fast guy or a take-and-rake with contact issues.

 

 

No, his numbers haven't been awful, but they haven't been nearly what they could be. I've never been under the impression that he was overmatched or overrated, but that he was getting in his own way. I definitely have felt like his ability to make contact has been a double edged sword.

 

My feeling has long been that if he'd swing at fewer pitcher's pitches at work counts into his favor, the power would follow. We're seeing some of that now (how much of that is him and how much is the PCL remains to be seen, but the correlation is encouraging).

 

I've often been surprised at how many people write him off, given his age.

Posted

I guess it's kind of interesting when you think of the paths which Josh Vitters and Brett Jackson took to the point they are now. Vitters was touted by some as the top bat in what was considered a stacked draft. 2 years later, Jackson was viewed as a so-so late 1st rounder. Vitters has been a roller coaster since the behinning. Jackson has been great at every stop, with few hiccups, the most recent being the most notable. This being said, even in his worst stretch, BJ's still OPSing .833.

 

Now if you were to poll people who either casually follow the minors or have recently started, I wonder how many are aware that Vitters is younger than Jackson, Szczur, and just half a year older than Junior Lake. Castro, Rizzo, Vitters, and Jackson could be a great core to build around.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
I'm going to say this as nicely as possible, but WSR, you are constantly clueless as to the value of any player at any level at any point in baseball history. Stop trying to evaluate players.
Posted
Also, not to bag on Vitters because I like him and want him to succeed, but it's the PCL!! Everyone always points this out when guys like Jason Dubois, Scott McLain, Micah Hoffpauir, and Bryan LaHair dominate, so it has to take a little luster off what he's doing.

You mean the 2012 National League All-Star 1B Bryan LaHair?

Posted
Also, not to bag on Vitters because I like him and want him to succeed, but it's the PCL!! Everyone always points this out when guys like Jason Dubois, Scott McLain, Micah Hoffpauir, and Bryan LaHair dominate, so it has to take a little luster off what he's doing.

Weren't all those guys like 4-6 years older than Vitters when they were ripping up the PCL and also repeating the level for at least a second time through (if not 3rd, 4th or 5th)?

Posted
Also, not to bag on Vitters because I like him and want him to succeed, but it's the PCL!! Everyone always points this out when guys like Jason Dubois, Scott McLain, Micah Hoffpauir, and Bryan LaHair dominate, so it has to take a little luster off what he's doing.

Weren't all those guys like 4-6 years older than Vitters when they were ripping up the PCL and also repeating the level for at least a second time through (if not 3rd, 4th or 5th)?

 

A few notables who were 21-22 with at least a half season in AAA.

 

Vitters: 348 PA 302/.356/.509 13 HR

 

Moustakas: 2010: 236 PA .293/.314/.564 15 HR

Moustakas 2011: 250 PA .287/.347/.498 16 HR

Adam Jones: 2006 416 PA.287/.345/.484 16 HR

Adam Jones: 2007: 469 PA .314/.382/.586 25 HR

Andrew McCutchen: 2008: 590 PA .283/.372/.398 9 HR

Ian Kinsler: 2005: 597 PA .274/.348/.464 23 HR

Posted
Also, not to bag on Vitters because I like him and want him to succeed, but it's the PCL!! Everyone always points this out when guys like Jason Dubois, Scott McLain, Micah Hoffpauir, and Bryan LaHair dominate, so it has to take a little luster off what he's doing.

You mean the 2012 National League All-Star 1B Bryan LaHair?

 

I'm pretty sure that's who he means. The guy who out OPSed Vitters by 200 points.

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