Hypothetical Castro trades that'll never happen

[SouthSideRyan]

(22-year-old) Castro is on pace for 5.5 WAR, so just imagine what happens when he starts walking some and hitting for more power (both are absolute certainties)

 

Somebody hasn't seen Manny Machado's #s in rookie ball.

[davell]

I can't see us trading Castro, but I do like the idea that our FO looks at everything. The Machado/Bundy package would be hard not to do, in my mind, but I hope it doesn't become available, because I do want to see Starlin here longterm.

[Clem Fandango]

I like how the other day Theo says something along the lines of "I believe that no one player should ever be untouchable. I don't think untouchables should exist". And now this dork attaches two names that appears to be speculation, yet fit within the confines of Theo's original blanket statement, and people are getting furious?

 

I need more fingers to count all the times people have said around here that "No one should be untouchable" but now that someone speculates Castro is available it's lynchin' time.

 

P.S. I don't want Castro traded, just observing.

Edited May 31, 2012 by The Logan

[Guest]

I like how the other day Theo says something along the lines of "I believe that no one player should ever be untouchable. I don't think untouchables should exist". And now this dork puts two names that appears to be speculation, yet fit within the confines of Theo's original blanket statement, and people are getting furious?

 

I need more fingers to count all the times people have said around here that "No one should be untouchable" but now that someone speculates Castro is available it's lynchin' time.

 

P.S. I don't want Castro traded, just observing.

 

I think people are doubting the veracity of the report moreso than Theo for possibly considering trading him.

[davell]

http://t.co/BhiKF4cB

 

Heyman's top 45 July trade candidates. Cubs VERY well represented obviously.

[Clem Fandango]

I like how the other day Theo says something along the lines of "I believe that no one player should ever be untouchable. I don't think untouchables should exist". And now this dork puts two names that appears to be speculation, yet fit within the confines of Theo's original blanket statement, and people are getting furious?

 

I need more fingers to count all the times people have said around here that "No one should be untouchable" but now that someone speculates Castro is available it's lynchin' time.

 

P.S. I don't want Castro traded, just observing.

 

I think people are doubting the veracity of the report moreso than Theo for possibly considering trading him.

 

Then I'm with them. Nightengale is a turd.

[pitchcs]

I don't think Theo will actually trade Castro unless he gets a significant return.

 

This has to be the most obvious response you've ever made.

[Post Count Padder]

I don't wanna trade Castro. He'll be a star for years. But if we were offered something like:

 

Trout/Garrett Richards/Kaleb Cowert/etc

 

Bundy/Machado/Matusz

 

Lawrie/D'Arnaud/Drabek or Gose

 

it would be interesting to entertain the offer. But those offers will never happen.

[rawaction]

The problem with trading a 21-year old 4-5 WAR player in his pre-arbitration years is that the deal only works if you get a 4-5 WAR pre-arb player in return. Not potentially, actually 4-5 WAR. And those teams don't want to trade 4-5 WAR players.

[RammyFanny]

"We're starting to get some early calls now," Epstein says. "There might be fewer sellers than usual and a lot more buyers. This has a chance to help us. We need core players."

For some reason I stupidly never thought of this. Extra Wild Card + a bunch of teams in the race = great market for sellers.

[Guest]

The problem with trading a 21-year old 4-5 WAR player in his pre-arbitration years is that the deal only works if you get a 4-5 WAR pre-arb player in return. Not potentially, actually 4-5 WAR. And those teams don't want to trade 4-5 WAR players.

 

As much as I want to, I feel we're going overboard by definitively calling him a 4-5 WAR player at this point, as this is the first year he is doing it and he is still only on PACE to do it (through 1/3 of the season or so) and with how much of it is tied to defense and steals.

 

I really really hope (and pretty much expect) he keeps it up and adds the power and some discipline.

Edited May 31, 2012 by David

[davell]

In my mind, here's our chances of dealing guys before the deadline:

 

100% Johnson and Baker

90% Dempster

60% Soriano

50% Maholm

40% DeJesus

30% LaHair

20% Garza, Soto, Camp, and Barney

10% Campana and Wells

5% Marmol

.0000001% Castro

 

Dempster's getting dealt if he allows it. Soriano is if someone takes him. Maholm and DeJesus could, but only if we get something decent back, because they're both cheap next year, LaHair probably has more value with us than not, Soto probably isn't going to be back and playing well enough to deal, Camp has tons of competition out there and may not be dealt for that reason, and Marmol is too much money.

[gocubs2118]

In my mind, here's our chances of dealing guys before the deadline:

 

100% Johnson and Baker

90% Dempster

60% Soriano

50% Maholm

40% DeJesus

30% LaHair

20% Garza, Soto, Camp, and Barney

10% Campana and Wells

5% Marmol

.0000001% Castro

 

Dempster's getting dealt if he allows it. Soriano is if someone takes him. Maholm and DeJesus could, but only if we get something decent back, because they're both cheap next year, LaHair probably has more value with us than not, Soto probably isn't going to be back and playing well enough to deal, Camp has tons of competition out there and may not be dealt for that reason, and Marmol is too much money.

 

Thank God we don't have to listen to Hendry's crap anymore and hear him say guys like Johnson and Baker are untouchable. I think we could get a good haul for players like Garza, Dempster and DeJesus.

[UMFan83]

I don't think Theo will actually trade Castro unless he gets a significant return.

 

This has to be the most obvious response you've ever made.

 

I had typed something else, but after posting decided to take it out and was left with this nugget of wisdom :)

[sneakypower]

As much as I want to, I feel we're going overboard by definitively calling him a 4-5 WAR player at this point, as this is the first year he is doing it and he is still only on PACE to do it (through 1/3 of the season or so) and with how much of it is tied to defense and steals.

 

I really really hope (and pretty much expect) he keeps it up and adds the power and some discipline.

the only thing holding him back last season was defense

 

in the last 30 years, only five SS have reached 4 WAR in a season by age 22:

 

Alex Rodriguez, Cal Ripken Jr., Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, Elvis Andrus

 

(the first three names are the only to have reached 5 WAR)

Edited May 31, 2012 by sneakypower

[Backtobanks]

Maybe they feel his plate discipline is unlikely to improve?

Still, considering his age and outstanding hit-tool (not to mention improving defense) he's valuable even if he never really learns to walk.

 

Or maybe Bob Nightengale has no damn clue what he's talking about.

 

Ding! Ding! We have a winner.

[Guest]

"We're starting to get some early calls now," Epstein says. "There might be fewer sellers than usual and a lot more buyers. This has a chance to help us. We need core players."

For some reason I stupidly never thought of this. Extra Wild Card + a bunch of teams in the race = great market for sellers.

 

Where's the quote from?

[Guest]

"We're starting to get some early calls now," Epstein says. "There might be fewer sellers than usual and a lot more buyers. This has a chance to help us. We need core players."

For some reason I stupidly never thought of this. Extra Wild Card + a bunch of teams in the race = great market for sellers.

 

Where's the quote from?

 

The Nightengale article.

[Little Slide Rooter]

When black Friday rolls along, you often hear about these insane blockbuster deals like a 52 inch flat screen for $250. In reality, a very small amount of those $250 flat screens are available, and more customers than not are going to visit that store to find that the $250 flat screen is sold out. However, many of them figure that once they're in the store anyway, they'll do some browsing, and the salesmen show them some other bargains that they might not have wanted at first, such as an I Pod dock, some video games, a 24 boxed set, Carlos Marmol, or a lap top. Hopefully in our case, nobody walks home with Starlin Castro, but they do some bargain shopping anyway.

[SouthSideRyan]

When black Friday rolls along, you often hear about these insane blockbuster deals like a 52 inch flat screen for $250. In reality, a very small amount of those $250 flat screens are available, and more customers than not are going to visit that store to find that the $250 flat screen is sold out. However, many of them figure that once they're in the store anyway, they'll do some browsing, and the salesmen show them some other bargains that they might not have wanted at first, such as an I Pod dock, some video games, a 24 boxed set, Carlos Marmol, or a lap top. Hopefully in our case, nobody walks home with Starlin Castro, but they do some bargain shopping anyway.

 

Nailed it.

[Guest]

As much as I want to, I feel we're going overboard by definitively calling him a 4-5 WAR player at this point, as this is the first year he is doing it and he is still only on PACE to do it (through 1/3 of the season or so) and with how much of it is tied to defense and steals.

 

I really really hope (and pretty much expect) he keeps it up and adds the power and some discipline.

the only thing holding him back last season was defense

 

in the last 30 years, only five SS have reached 4 WAR in a season by age 22:

 

Alex Rodriguez, Cal Ripken Jr., Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, Elvis Andrus

 

I'm aware. Still, we have 50 games of defensive metrics to base that on. I want it to be really real, but we just have to wait and see.

 

Plus if he does have a BABIP unlucky year, how much does his value tank? I realize this doesn't matter in a predictive sense, but it seems like a lot of his value comes from his ability to sustain a .350 BABIP.

[SouthSideRyan]

And? You don't think his patience or power numbers will improve over the next 110 games?

[UMFan83]

http://t.co/BhiKF4cB

 

Heyman's top 45 July trade candidates. Cubs VERY well represented obviously.

 

Thought it was at least somewhat interesting but among the top 30 or so, Broxton, Colon, Capps, KRod, Wang, Chen and Millwood were all players that were signed this offseason and are now likely being shopped at the deadline for good returns.

 

I said in the offseason it would have been nice to have signed some decent veterans who were looking 1 year deals and then trading them at the deadline for prospects. Who knows what we could get for them, but we certainly had the payroll to pay some of these guys. Broxton especially could get a pretty decent return at the deadline and only cost KC $4 million.

 

I will say though that there are 3 players on that list that were Cubs FA signings from last winter (Maholm, DeJesus and Reed Johnson) so its not like we didnt pick up anything tradable this winter.

[UMFan83]

When black Friday rolls along, you often hear about these insane blockbuster deals like a 52 inch flat screen for $250. In reality, a very small amount of those $250 flat screens are available, and more customers than not are going to visit that store to find that the $250 flat screen is sold out. However, many of them figure that once they're in the store anyway, they'll do some browsing, and the salesmen show them some other bargains that they might not have wanted at first, such as an I Pod dock, some video games, a 24 boxed set, Carlos Marmol, or a lap top. Hopefully in our case, nobody walks home with Starlin Castro, but they do some bargain shopping anyway.

 

Nailed it.

 

LOL

[El Duderino]

When black Friday rolls along, you often hear about these insane blockbuster deals like a 52 inch flat screen for $250. In reality, a very small amount of those $250 flat screens are available, and more customers than not are going to visit that store to find that the $250 flat screen is sold out. However, many of them figure that once they're in the store anyway, they'll do some browsing, and the salesmen show them some other bargains that they might not have wanted at first, such as an I Pod dock, some video games, a 24 boxed set, Carlos Marmol, or a lap top. Hopefully in our case, nobody walks home with Starlin Castro, but they do some bargain shopping anyway.

 

Nailed it.

 

LOL