Random Baseball Musings

[seanimal]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/CharlesGattinBP/status/631908883024318464[/tweet]

 

yeah but what if you subtract all the games they lost???

[OleMissCub]

The most recent episode of Baseball Prospectus' Effectively Wild podcast (an awesome pod btw) was entirely about the Cardinals and their stunning luck this year. There is a legit metric that one of the nerds over at BP created called "Cluster-luck" and of course the Cardinals are blowing that stat completely out of the water this year. They mentioned that our Cubs are among the bottom of the league in Cluster-luck.

[Guest]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/CharlesGattinBP/status/631908883024318464[/tweet]

 

what a pointless awful nugget by this guy

[Sammy Sofa]

I love exasperation analysis.

[Guest]

Wins are more legitimate when dispersed among gentlemanly losses.

[Banedon]

The most recent episode of Baseball Prospectus' Effectively Wild podcast (an awesome pod btw) was entirely about the Cardinals and their stunning luck this year. There is a legit metric that one of the nerds over at BP created called "Cluster-luck" and of course the Cardinals are blowing that stat completely out of the water this year. They mentioned that our Cubs are among the bottom of the league in Cluster-luck.

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-st-louis-cardinals-cluster-luck/

[TruffleShuffle]

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150816&content_id=143448682&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

 

While David Denson was busy playing in a doubleheader for Rookie-level Helena on Saturday night in Idaho Falls, his words in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel were making history.

 

The Brewers prospect told the newspaper he's gay, becoming the first Minor or Major League Baseball player to publicly do so while still active.

 

According to the newspaper, Denson told his parents and sister the news this spring, not long before informing certain members of the Brewers farm system, including farm director Reid Nichols, thanks to help from Brewers team counselor Becky Schnakenberg. He recently told his Helena teammates of his sexuality and was greeted with open arms.

[OleMissCub]

Good for him. I hope he makes it to the Show.

[Sammy Sofa]

http://i.imgur.com/KyK6HUj.gif

[Careless]

It's not just the best LOB% in baseball, if it continues it will be the best in history. Pretty easily, actually.

"show us what the pitching version of them hitting .320 WRISP is" said no one

[Sammys Boombox]

It's not just the best LOB% in baseball, if it continues it will be the best in history. Pretty easily, actually.

"show us what the pitching version of them hitting .320 WRISP is" said no one

 

But even if the pitching staff’s incredible clutchness doesn’t continue, the wins it’s helped St. Louis secure could help the Cardinals hold off the Pirates (who’ve enjoyed a more modest form of cluster luck) and the Cubs (who haven’t) down the stretch.

 

Hahahaha.

[BigSlick]

I'd like to complain about the Cardinals luck but really even after our hot streak the Cubs *still* have outperformed their Pythagorean by a significant amount, so I don't think we have much leg to stand on.

 

And in a sense, I get a perverse enjoyment that the Cardinals may be riding a house of cards performance and it'll collapse at any moment. (Or they'll just win it all, but the 2006 83 win Cardinals already destroyed my capacity for outrage so, no biggie)

[Cubswin11]

Idk how rare it is for a pitcher to do this, but Greinke's current triple slash line as a batter is currently better than his triple slash line against for the year. .226/.236/.358 vs. .191/.236/.271

[Thurman Merman]

Idk how rare it is for a pitcher to do this, but Greinke's current triple slash line as a batter is currently better than his triple slash line against for the year. .226/.236/.358 vs. .191/.236/.271

 

I think Bumgarner is doing it this year too.

 

.231/.270/.363 (pitching against) vs .245/.273/.491 (batting)

Edited August 17, 2015 by Thurman Merman

[Andy]

I'd like to complain about the Cardinals luck but really even after our hot streak the Cubs *still* have outperformed their Pythagorean by a significant amount, so I don't think we have much leg to stand on.

 

And in a sense, I get a perverse enjoyment that the Cardinals may be riding a house of cards performance and it'll collapse at any moment. (Or they'll just win it all, but the 2006 83 win Cardinals already destroyed my capacity for outrage so, no biggie)

You certainly don't have to complain about their luck (you're a better person for not doing so), but the Cubs have encountered negative variance and poor luck plenty of times in recent years, so it could easily be said it's swinging the other way this year. The same is not true of STL, which just had a ludicrous BABIP and BA w/RISP propel them to a World Series two years ago.

[BigSlick]

In 2008, Carlos Zambrano allowed a .241/.316/.370 line while hitting .337/.337/.554

 

That disparity I suspect is the best by a pitcher since a Babe Ruth type, but maybe I'm wrong.

 

Zambrano also had *24* home runs in his career. Incredible. I miss that big guy. :hello:

[SouthSideRyan]

In 2008, Carlos Zambrano allowed a .241/.316/.370 line while hitting .337/.337/.554

 

That disparity I suspect is the best by a pitcher since a Babe Ruth type, but maybe I'm wrong.

 

Zambrano also had *24* home runs in his career. Incredible. I miss that big guy. :hello:

 

I was just going to look that season up. For his career, opposing batters only out-OPSd him by .049 (.036 as a Cub)

[Guest]

I'd like to complain about the Cardinals luck but really even after our hot streak the Cubs *still* have outperformed their Pythagorean by a significant amount, so I don't think we have much leg to stand on.

 

And in a sense, I get a perverse enjoyment that the Cardinals may be riding a house of cards performance and it'll collapse at any moment. (Or they'll just win it all, but the 2006 83 win Cardinals already destroyed my capacity for outrage so, no biggie)

 

Look at third order winning percentage rather than pythag and we've out performed by a good amount less, last I checked.

[Sammys Boombox]

I'd like to complain about the Cardinals luck but really even after our hot streak the Cubs *still* have outperformed their Pythagorean by a significant amount, so I don't think we have much leg to stand on.

 

And in a sense, I get a perverse enjoyment that the Cardinals may be riding a house of cards perfectly ormance and it'll collapse at any moment. (Or they'll just win it all, but the 2006 83 win Cardinals already destroyed my capacity for outrage so, no biggie)

 

Look at third order winning percentage rather than pythag and we've out performed by a good amount less, last I checked.

 

NL 3rd-Order Standings

 

Dodgers .608 -

Cardinals .575 3.9 GB

Cubs .551 6.7 GB

Giants .550 6.8 GB

Pirates .543 7.7 GB

Mets .524 9.9 GB

Nationals .516 10.9 GB

 

If you don't like the adjustment for opponents, 2nd order is actually very similar.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yep, just +3 by 3rd order Win %. Cleveland and Oakland are hilariously off pace.

[Sammys Boombox]

Yep, just +3 by 3rd order Win %. Cleveland and Oakland are hilariously off pace.

 

Cleveland's lost 18.8 games on the Royals in 3rd order pace. They are 16.5 back.

[UMFan83]

[tweet]

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Getting way ahead of myself but don't make any plans on Wednesday, October 7th. To be safe I'd avoid October 9,10,12,13 and 14 as well (that's how they usually do it right? 2 on, 1 off, 3 on?)

[Guest]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Getting way ahead of myself but don't make any plans on Wednesday, October 7th. To be safe I'd avoid October 9,10,12,13 and 14 as well (that's how they usually do it right? 2 on, 1 off, 3 on?)

I may just plan on taking October off.

[ARCubsFan]

Blackhawks home opener and NL Wild Card on the same night

[Sammys Boombox]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/ps.jsp