2012 Cubs Win Total

[jersey cubs fan]

http://aznbadger.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/chris-farley.jpg

[jersey cubs fan]

so is this poll going to remain outside the designated polling area?

[champaignchris]

I voted with the plurality -- 71-75.

 

Even with the offensive losses, I think the starting pitching will be significantly better (even if Garza is traded) and I think the defense will be marginally improved.

[BeerHere]

I just don't see much 100-loss downside of this team. If nothing else, they've got a nice amount of depth.

 

I mean, what sort of downside is there, really? Garza traded and Castro hurt? Otherwise, it's just a mass of above-replacement, under-average fungible players.

Downsides: injuries to the rotation and Castro, Soto repeating 2009/2011 levels of performance, less power on this year's team, LaHair being a 4A player and Rizzo regressing.

 

I could easily see this team being worse than last year.

[BeerHere]

I voted with the plurality -- 71-75.

 

Even with the offensive losses, I think the starting pitching will be significantly better (even if Garza is traded) and I think the defense will be marginally improved.

 

How do you see the offense being improved? Do you see LaHair being better than Pena? Losing Ramirez leaves a sizeable hole that Stewart probably doesn't come close to filling. DeJesus and Fukudome probably won't be a wash either. I think this team's offense is significantly worse than last year. The rotation should be better but Marmol is trending in the wrong direction. Honestly, I'm a Cub fan but I can't see this team winning more than 70 games even if everything doesn't fall apart.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I voted with the plurality -- 71-75.

 

Even with the offensive losses, I think the starting pitching will be significantly better (even if Garza is traded) and I think the defense will be marginally improved.

 

How do you see the offense being improved? Do you see LaHair being better than Pena? Losing Ramirez leaves a sizeable hole that Stewart probably doesn't come close to filling. DeJesus and Fukudome probably won't be a wash either. I think this team's offense is significantly worse than last year. The rotation should be better but Marmol is trending in the wrong direction. Honestly, I'm a Cub fan but I can't see this team winning more than 70 games even if everything doesn't fall apart.

He didn't say the offense will be improved.

[jersey cubs fan]

I voted with the plurality -- 71-75.

 

Even with the offensive losses, I think the starting pitching will be significantly better (even if Garza is traded) and I think the defense will be marginally improved.

 

How do you see the offense being improved?

 

He didn't say that he sees the offense being improved.

[champaignchris]

Right. I don't think the offense will be better. I don't think it will be THAT much worse though.

 

I also don't think we'll have the worst starting pitching in the league again.

[BeerHere]

I voted with the plurality -- 71-75.

 

Even with the offensive losses, I think the starting pitching will be significantly better (even if Garza is traded) and I think the defense will be marginally improved.

 

How do you see the offense being improved? Do you see LaHair being better than Pena? Losing Ramirez leaves a sizeable hole that Stewart probably doesn't come close to filling. DeJesus and Fukudome probably won't be a wash either. I think this team's offense is significantly worse than last year. The rotation should be better but Marmol is trending in the wrong direction. Honestly, I'm a Cub fan but I can't see this team winning more than 70 games even if everything doesn't fall apart.

He didn't say the offense will be improved.

Ugh, I thoroughly misread that. My bad.

[champaignchris]

For what it's worth, Boers and Bernstein just had on the guy from Baseball Prospectus who does the PECOTA projections. He said that their preliminary projections for the Cubs was about a .460 winning percentage, which comes out to 74.5 wins.

[Beer Kaese]

I just don't see much 100-loss downside of this team. If nothing else, they've got a nice amount of depth.

 

I mean, what sort of downside is there, really? Garza traded and Castro hurt? Otherwise, it's just a mass of above-replacement, under-average fungible players.

Downsides: injuries to the rotation and Castro, Soto repeating 2009/2011 levels of performance, less power on this year's team, LaHair being a 4A player and Rizzo regressing.

 

I could easily see this team being worse than last year.

 

Really, Castro might not be able to do what he has done? I look at Castro and I see Grace, Carter, Madlock, Santo, Williams and Banks.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I just don't see much 100-loss downside of this team. If nothing else, they've got a nice amount of depth.

 

I mean, what sort of downside is there, really? Garza traded and Castro hurt? Otherwise, it's just a mass of above-replacement, under-average fungible players.

Downsides: injuries to the rotation and Castro, Soto repeating 2009/2011 levels of performance, less power on this year's team, LaHair being a 4A player and Rizzo regressing.

 

I could easily see this team being worse than last year.

 

 

Injuries to the rotation? After Garza we have like eight guys who are all 1.5 WAR pitchers.

 

Soto repeating 2011 doesn't make us worse. It makes us even.

 

I don't mean "downside" as in "whether or not we're worse than last year." I mean "ways we can be worse than we project going into the season." At almost every position, we are stacked with a handful of mediocrities. If one gets hurt, another can step in. Wells, Sappelt, Jackson, Rizzo and whoever backs up second and third probably project to be pretty even with the starters at those positions.

[SouthSideRyan]

I just don't see much 100-loss downside of this team. If nothing else, they've got a nice amount of depth.

 

I mean, what sort of downside is there, really? Garza traded and Castro hurt? Otherwise, it's just a mass of above-replacement, under-average fungible players.

Downsides: injuries to the rotation and Castro, Soto repeating 2009/2011 levels of performance, less power on this year's team, LaHair being a 4A player and Rizzo regressing.

 

I could easily see this team being worse than last year.

 

Really, Castro might not be able to do what he has done? I look at Castro and I see Grace, Carter, Madlock, Santo, Williams and Banks.

 

Castro will probably have a better career than all those guys.(Also, I have no clue how you decided to lump those 6 guys together.)

[Backtobanks]

I just don't see much 100-loss downside of this team. If nothing else, they've got a nice amount of depth.

 

I mean, what sort of downside is there, really? Garza traded and Castro hurt? Otherwise, it's just a mass of above-replacement, under-average fungible players.

Downsides: injuries to the rotation and Castro, Soto repeating 2009/2011 levels of performance, less power on this year's team, LaHair being a 4A player and Rizzo regressing.

 

I could easily see this team being worse than last year.

 

Really, Castro might not be able to do what he has done? I look at Castro and I see Grace, Carter, Madlock, Santo, Williams and Banks.

 

Castro will probably have a better career than all those guys.(Also, I have no clue how you decided to lump those 6 guys together.)

 

Madlock might be a good comparison although Castro seems to have the potential for more power. As for Williams and Banks, Castro has a long way to go to be mentioned as HOF worthy.

[Can Of Corn]

67

 

Not trying to stir the pot. That's my honest guess.

[Yeti]

67

 

Not trying to stir the pot. That's my honest guess.

:nutkick:

[davell]

67

 

Not trying to stir the pot. That's my honest guess.

Pot stirrer! Just kidding, welcome to the site. To me, it's all about Ricky Bobby: If you ain't first, you're last. I'd rather suck, if not for the fact we're going to have so many younsters out there that need to have success. I really think we'll be better than what people are thinking, especially if Garza and Soto are here all season.

[illiniguy]

Holy hyperbole. Castro likely will have a better career than Billy Williams and Ernie Banks? I hope you're right.

[SouthSideRyan]

Holy hyperbole. Castro likely will have a better career than Billy Williams and Ernie Banks? I hope you're right.

 

He was probably going to be a HOFer with our old incompetent management. Now that we have people around here who know what they're doing, there's little doubt in my mind.

 

He's very good.

[illiniguy]

Holy hyperbole. Castro likely will have a better career than Billy Williams and Ernie Banks? I hope you're right.

 

He was probably going to be a HOFer with our old incompetent management. Now that we have people around here who know what they're doing, there's little doubt in my mind.

 

He's very good.

I know, but good lord. Those are two guys who are better than "very good."