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Posted
2Bs hit .260/.319/.388 last year; it's not hard at all to envision Cardenas being above average at the position, offensively

I'm having a hard time imagining a .388 SLG out of Cardenas. A very hard time. The BA/OBP sounds about right, though.

he had a .780 ops in the minors while being young for his level most of the way; i think you're underselling his potential

 

But if the reports of being an awful defender are true I can't imagine the benefit of playing a slightly above average hitter there.
if he approaches his milb numbers, he'll be much more than a 'slightly above average hitter' for 2B

 

In 3 AAA seasons he's got a 730 OPS. You don't really assume a prospect will duplicate his minor league numbers in the majors.

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Posted

first of all it's a bit misleading to call 983 PA "three seasons", but all you're saying is he played poorly when he was too young and unready for AAA pitching

 

how did he do in AA?

Posted
first of all it's a bit misleading to call 983 PA "three seasons", but all you're saying is he played poorly when he was too young and unready for AAA pitching

 

how did he do in AA?

 

How did he do *last year* in a full season at 23 in AAA? What was the MLE on his line?

Posted
I think few if any people would argue that it would take a reversal of fortunes for Cardenas to be a plus contributor to the Cubs. If he had an MLE of an above average 2B then Oakland wouldn’t have cut him loose. However, because of his age and pedigree, it’s a pretty worthwhile gamble to take, most importantly because he costs nothing and we get rid of DeWitt. To rephrase what I tried to say earlier. DeWitt is good at nothing, not cheap or team controlled, and has little reason to bank on improvement. We’re getting a lottery ticket to replace a rock in our shoe.
Posted
I think few if any people would argue that it would take a reversal of fortunes for Cardenas to be a plus contributor to the Cubs. If he had an MLE of an above average 2B then Oakland wouldn’t have cut him loose. However, because of his age and pedigree, it’s a pretty worthwhile gamble to take, most importantly because he costs nothing and we get rid of DeWitt. To rephrase what I tried to say earlier. DeWitt is good at nothing, not cheap or team controlled, and has little reason to bank on improvement. We’re getting a lottery ticket to replace a rock in our shoe.

 

 

I agree with all that.

 

We're making this move because Cardenas has some pedigree that says he might take a huge leap forward.

 

But that's what it's going to take for him to be useful: a leap forward. There's nothing in the statistical record that says that he deserves an MLB roster spot right now, or will ever be a starter as he develops.

Posted
I think few if any people would argue that it would take a reversal of fortunes for Cardenas to be a plus contributor to the Cubs. If he had an MLE of an above average 2B then Oakland wouldn’t have cut him loose. However, because of his age and pedigree, it’s a pretty worthwhile gamble to take, most importantly because he costs nothing and we get rid of DeWitt. To rephrase what I tried to say earlier. DeWitt is good at nothing, not cheap or team controlled, and has little reason to bank on improvement. We’re getting a lottery ticket to replace a rock in our shoe.

 

 

I agree with all that.

 

We're making this move because Cardenas has some pedigree that says he might take a huge leap forward.

 

But that's what it's going to take for him to be useful: a leap forward. There's nothing in the statistical record that says that he deserves an MLB roster spot right now, or will ever be a starter as he develops.

Cardenas final year in AAA:

.314 .374 .418 .791

Barney final year in AAA:

.299 .333 .378 .711

 

You say one doesn't deserve a roster spot, and you push the other one as an average to above-average player. I sure hope WAR's defensive metrics are 100% sound.

Posted

Cardenas final year in AAA:

.314 .374 .418 .791

Barney final year in AAA:

.299 .333 .378 .711

 

You say one doesn't deserve a roster spot, and you push the other one as an average to above-average player. I sure hope WAR's defensive metrics are 100% sound.

 

Well considering that Barney's value comes from great defense and adequate offense and Cardens is considered a butcher just about anywhere he plays, they don't even have to be that accurate to make a marked difference. Plus, didn't Barney somewhat exceed MLEs based on his AAA numbers?

Posted

Cardenas final year in AAA:

.314 .374 .418 .791

Barney final year in AAA:

.299 .333 .378 .711

 

You say one doesn't deserve a roster spot, and you push the other one as an average to above-average player. I sure hope WAR's defensive metrics are 100% sound.

 

If Barney hits like his AAA stats suggest, then he's not worthy of a roster spot either, despite his defense being significantly better than Cardenas'.

Posted
MLE's are like park effects. If you aren't hitting the ball out of the infield anyways, it doesn't really matter where you do it.
Posted
I like the deal to an extent not because I think Cardenas will be anything great, but more because there was a need for an upper level utility guy that was close to ready, and he provides some tiny, tiny upside to boot. I'm not expecting him to be a regular, let alone a regular bench player in the bigs (unless he makes big improvements) but I see him more as a AAA guy. I also didn't care that much for DeWitt - his "sweet swing" never came around, and from Low A to now, that's more than enough time. He fills a role, but it's just not a significant one when Jeff Baker does the same thing, albeit different handedness.
  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
I agree with all that.

 

We're making this move because Cardenas has some pedigree that says he might take a huge leap forward.

 

But that's what it's going to take for him to be useful: a leap forward. There's nothing in the statistical record that says that he deserves an MLB roster spot right now, or will ever be a starter as he develops.

 

Sure, but DeWitt had that same pedigree. He was one a top prospect in a touted system who just stopped improving one day...I think the thing about Cardenas is just price.

 

I think they're paying DeWitt this year, but the money is there to do it and they have a guy who might be able to do his role (suck when the sucky starters go down) for cheap over the next couple of years.

Posted

According to the trib, DeWit cleared waivers and has accepted an assignment to Iowa. He'll be a NRI at spring training.

 

NOTES: Blake DeWitt accepted an assignment to be outrighted to Triple-A Iowa and will come to camp as a non-roster invitee. The Cubs designated DeWitt for assignment to clear space on the 40-man roster to sign A's infielder Adrian Cardenas.
Posted

Odd that no one bothered claiming him. I think he is still a decent backup infielder. He'll be back in the majors at some point this season.

 

A claiming team would have had to pay his salary, wouldn't they? Would they have also had to add him to the 40 man roster? If true, those are two good reasons not to claim him.

  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
I saw on BN that the Phillies have some degree of interest in Blake DeWitt or Jeff Baker to fill in for Utley. Not sure what the Phils have in their system, or that we'd get a ton back, but our front office can certainly dig through their lower levels and get the best return possible. There's no urgency to move Baker or DeWitt, but if/when we move them I can't see them bringing in any more or less if we waited until the summer.
Posted
I saw on BN that the Phillies have some degree of interest in Blake DeWitt or Jeff Baker to fill in for Utley. Not sure what the Phils have in their system, or that we'd get a ton back, but our front office can certainly dig through their lower levels and get the best return possible. There's no urgency to move Baker or DeWitt, but if/when we move them I can't see them bringing in any more or less if we waited until the summer.

I'd see if they would overpay for Barney. Maybe the Phillies are desperate and would give up Domonic Brown for a package starting with Barney and a 95% paid-for Soriano.

Posted
I saw on BN that the Phillies have some degree of interest in Blake DeWitt or Jeff Baker to fill in for Utley. Not sure what the Phils have in their system, or that we'd get a ton back, but our front office can certainly dig through their lower levels and get the best return possible. There's no urgency to move Baker or DeWitt, but if/when we move them I can't see them bringing in any more or less if we waited until the summer.

I'd see if they would overpay for Barney. Maybe the Phillies are desperate and would give up Domonic Brown for a package starting with Barney and a 95% paid-for Soriano.

 

If only we could be so lucky

Posted
I saw on BN that the Phillies have some degree of interest in Blake DeWitt or Jeff Baker to fill in for Utley. Not sure what the Phils have in their system, or that we'd get a ton back, but our front office can certainly dig through their lower levels and get the best return possible. There's no urgency to move Baker or DeWitt, but if/when we move them I can't see them bringing in any more or less if we waited until the summer.

I'd see if they would overpay for Barney. Maybe the Phillies are desperate and would give up Domonic Brown for a package starting with Barney and a 95% paid-for Soriano.

 

If only we could be so lucky

 

Yeah, not going to happen. The Phils are still likely the team to beat in the NL, but they're rapidly aging and have one of the lower ranking farm systems in baseball. Their once potent offense is looking very old and iffy. No way they'll give up Brown, one of their few guys who could contribute beyond the next 3 years or so without a huge return.

Posted
I saw on BN that the Phillies have some degree of interest in Blake DeWitt or Jeff Baker to fill in for Utley. Not sure what the Phils have in their system, or that we'd get a ton back, but our front office can certainly dig through their lower levels and get the best return possible. There's no urgency to move Baker or DeWitt, but if/when we move them I can't see them bringing in any more or less if we waited until the summer.

 

I think it's safe to hope Theo starts with Dominic Brown and works his way down.

 

Edit: Oh someone already...alrighty then.

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