Yooooooooooooennis Cespedes: To Oakland pg 44

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, suddenly $15 million is overpaying for Upton? What the [expletive]? This getting absurd.

[Sammy Sofa]

And even saying that I don't think he's going to get $15 million per.

[XZero771679666304]

Wait, suddenly $15 million is overpaying for Upton? What the [expletive]? This getting absurd.

 

I'm not a huge fan of Upton.

 

I'm also confident some team will give him north of 15MM per.

 

If we could get him for a decent price, I'd be for it. But I don't think we need two guys who are .750 OPS, contact challenged, low OBP (Jackson & Upton, though I think BJax might out-OBP Upton) in the same OF. I see Bjax and Upton as being guys who provide decent value in CF, but wouldn't on the corners. I also don't have a hard time seeing Jackson approximating Upton's production, and for a fraction of the cost. Brett isn't as good a defender and probably won't steal 40 bags (though 20+ is certainly a possibility). I just don't see a $15MM difference between the two.

 

If this were 2008 I'd say there would be no way you pass over B.J., but this isn't 2008.

 

Of course what we see out of Brett this year could reinforce or change my opinion.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, suddenly $15 million is overpaying for Upton? What the [expletive]? This getting absurd.

 

I'm not a huge fan of Upton.

 

I'm also confident some team will give him north of 15MM per.

 

No. B.J. Upton is not getting a contract closing in Soriano territory unless he comes off of a monster year, and even then it's a stretch.

[XZero771679666304]

Wait, suddenly $15 million is overpaying for Upton? What the [expletive]? This getting absurd.

 

I'm not a huge fan of Upton.

 

I'm also confident some team will give him north of 15MM per.

 

No. B.J. Upton is not getting a contract closing in Soriano territory unless he comes off of a monster year, and even then it's a stretch.

 

I'm not sure, in this market. As we found out with Fielder, it only takes one dumb team with deep pockets.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, suddenly $15 million is overpaying for Upton? What the [expletive]? This getting absurd.

 

I'm not a huge fan of Upton.

 

I'm also confident some team will give him north of 15MM per.

 

No. B.J. Upton is not getting a contract closing in Soriano territory unless he comes off of a monster year, and even then it's a stretch.

 

I'm not sure, in this market. As we found out with Fielder, it only takes one dumb team with deep pockets.

 

But with Fielder there was all kinds of hype about how he was going to get a monster deal. I don't see that happening with Upton. I wouldn't say there's a negative perception of him around baseball, but he definitely has a lower profile when he didn't turn out to be the stud everyone thought he was.

Edited April 17, 2012 by Sammy Sofa

[XZero771679666304]

Wait, suddenly $15 million is overpaying for Upton? What the [expletive]? This getting absurd.

 

I'm not a huge fan of Upton.

 

I'm also confident some team will give him north of 15MM per.

 

No. B.J. Upton is not getting a contract closing in Soriano territory unless he comes off of a monster year, and even then it's a stretch.

 

I'm not sure, in this market. As we found out with Fielder, it only takes one dumb team with deep pockets.

 

But with Fielder there was all kinds of hype about how he was going to get a monster deal. I don't see that happening with Upton. I wouldn't say there's a negative perception of him around baseball, but he definitely has a a lower profile when he didn't turn out to be the stud everyone thought he was.

 

I don't think anyone thought Prince would actually get nine years.

 

And Upton is a polarizing player. There are segments that wouldn't touch him, but there are segments that see him as an elite talent that simply needs a change of scenery. If even a couple of teams in the latter camp are interested, you might be surprised at where the bidding goes, especially in this market of over payment.

[Sammy Sofa]

Plenty of predictions had Prince getting 8 years, so let's not suddenly pretend like him getting 9 was totally out of proportion. The "surprise" in that deal came more from the per year dollar amounts as oppose to the total years, but again, for better or for worse Prince was talked about as being a top tier FA. I'd be very surprised if Upton got similar hype.

[KingCubsFan]

Wait, suddenly $15 million is overpaying for Upton? What the [expletive]? This getting absurd.

 

I'm not a huge fan of Upton.

 

I'm also confident some team will give him north of 15MM per.

 

If we could get him for a decent price, I'd be for it. But I don't think we need two guys who are .750 OPS, contact challenged, low OBP (Jackson & Upton, though I think BJax might out-OBP Upton) in the same OF. I see Bjax and Upton as being guys who provide decent value in CF, but wouldn't on the corners. I also don't have a hard time seeing Jackson approximating Upton's production, and for a fraction of the cost. Brett isn't as good a defender and probably won't steal 40 bags (though 20+ is certainly a possibility). I just don't see a $15MM difference between the two.

 

If this were 2008 I'd say there would be no way you pass over B.J., but this isn't 2008.

 

Of course what we see out of Brett this year could reinforce or change my opinion.

I agree that Upton and Jackson could be redundant, but I'd have no problem putting Upton in RF. I've always thought RF was harder to play at Wrigley.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I was thinking more 5/75 to 5/85 for Upton. MAYBE 5/90 since he's a CF with such a strong pedigree and he'll be all of 28 when he signs. I actually feel like a team would be buying low on him...though that's probably impossible in FA.

 

I really don't get what's not to like about the guy 77. I admit I haven't been impressed with your reasoning for why he's overrated. Most of the numbers say his offense is hurt by his park and the run environment he plays in....Plus the AL Eaat has been good stuff for other divisions to grab talent that gets out (happily gets out).

Edited April 17, 2012 by PriortoTheoIhadWood

[XZero771679666304]

Plenty of predictions had Prince getting 8 years, so let's not suddenly pretend like him getting 9 was totally out of proportion. The "surprise" in that deal came more from the per year dollar amounts as oppose to the total years, but again, for better or for worse Prince was talked about as being a top tier FA. I'd be very surprised if Upton got similar hype.

 

And there were a ton of people openly questioning Prince's longevity, and much of the opinion I heard/read was "He and Boras are asking for 8-10 years, but they'll end up with 6-7". The deal in its totality was a surprise.

 

 

So let's set aside the 15MM+ number for a moment. Like it or not, Brett Jackson's presence impacts how much interest the Cubs would have in Upton, for clear reasons. They are players with similar skill sets who play the same position. Upton is not the caliber or player that you jump on regardless of who you have waiting in the wings. Neither's bats would likely be adequate on the corners long term.

 

Considering those things, at what price point would you be out on Upton?

[questionmarkgrace]

Wait, suddenly $15 million is overpaying for Upton? What the [expletive]? This getting absurd.

 

I know, suddenly it has become fashionable to play the role of penny pincher on this board. The fact of the matter is theo didnt win the WS by playing small market mentality with the red sox. Sure some of his prospects were difference makers but the vast majority of both teams were major trade or free agent signings. Anyone who thinks that the cubs can 'build' a world series contender solely through the draft is not only ignorant but arrogant. No team in the last 20 year years has won without a major free agent acquisition. Even the marlins teams. You cant ignore free agency. And you cant wait and assume free agents will be available when you need them. Sometimes you just need to go get them.

[XZero771679666304]

I was thinking more 5/75 to 5/85 for Upton. MAYBE 5/90 since he's a CF with such a strong pedigree and he'll be all of 28 when he signs. I actually feel like a team would be buying low on him...though that's probably impossible in FA.

 

I really don't get what's not to like about the guy 77. I admit I haven't been impressed with your reasoning for why he's overrated.

 

I don't hate the guy, I just don't think he's a fit for the Cubs.

 

I'd take him if he cane at a bargain, but I don't see how he's so good you say "[expletive] Brett Jackson" and sign him, and I don't see he (or Jackson) as corner OF.

[XZero771679666304]

Wait, suddenly $15 million is overpaying for Upton? What the [expletive]? This getting absurd.

 

I know, suddenly it has become fashionable to play the role of penny pincher on this board. The fact of the matter is theo didnt win the WS by playing small market mentality with the red sox. Sure some of his prospects were difference makers but the vast majority of both teams were major trade or free agent signings. Anyone who thinks that the cubs can 'build' a world series contender solely through the draft is not only ignorant but arrogant. No team in the last 20 year years has won without a major free agent acquisition. Even the marlins teams. You cant ignore free agency. And you cant wait and assume free agents will be available when you need them. Sometimes you just need to go get them.

 

I'm fine with spending money, I'm just not fine with spending money to spend it. IMO, Upton would be redundant. If this were Justin Upton, I'd say break the bank.

[Sammy Sofa]

I was thinking more 5/75 to 5/85 for Upton. MAYBE 5/90 since he's a CF with such a strong pedigree and he'll be all of 28 when he signs. I actually feel like a team would be buying low on him...though that's probably impossible in FA.

 

I really don't get what's not to like about the guy 77. I admit I haven't been impressed with your reasoning for why he's overrated.

 

I don't hate the guy, I just don't think he's a fit for the Cubs.

 

I'd take him if he cane at a bargain, but I don't see how he's so good you say "[expletive] Brett Jackson" and sign him, and I don't see he (or Jackson) as corner OF.

 

Because Jackson isn't some kind of slam dunk prospect whereas Upton is more of a sure thing. Jackson still has value even if he does develop and they sign Upton.

 

And I'd be apprehensive about signing Upton more over the issue of too many year as opposed to too much money. Obviously, I'm not saying give him anything he wants per year, but $15 million per for 5-6 years wouldn't bother me at all.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, suddenly $15 million is overpaying for Upton? What the [expletive]? This getting absurd.

 

I know, suddenly it has become fashionable to play the role of penny pincher on this board. The fact of the matter is theo didnt win the WS by playing small market mentality with the red sox. Sure some of his prospects were difference makers but the vast majority of both teams were major trade or free agent signings. Anyone who thinks that the cubs can 'build' a world series contender solely through the draft is not only ignorant but arrogant. No team in the last 20 year years has won without a major free agent acquisition. Even the marlins teams. You cant ignore free agency. And you cant wait and assume free agents will be available when you need them. Sometimes you just need to go get them.

 

I'm fine with spending money, I'm just not fine with spending money to spend it. IMO, Upton would be redundant. If this were Justin Upton, I'd say break the bank.

 

He's not redundant. Brett Jackson has proven [expletive].

[XZero771679666304]

Wait, suddenly $15 million is overpaying for Upton? What the [expletive]? This getting absurd.

 

I know, suddenly it has become fashionable to play the role of penny pincher on this board. The fact of the matter is theo didnt win the WS by playing small market mentality with the red sox. Sure some of his prospects were difference makers but the vast majority of both teams were major trade or free agent signings. Anyone who thinks that the cubs can 'build' a world series contender solely through the draft is not only ignorant but arrogant. No team in the last 20 year years has won without a major free agent acquisition. Even the marlins teams. You cant ignore free agency. And you cant wait and assume free agents will be available when you need them. Sometimes you just need to go get them.

 

I'm fine with spending money, I'm just not fine with spending money to spend it. IMO, Upton would be redundant. If this were Justin Upton, I'd say break the bank.

 

He's not redundant. Brett Jackson has proven [expletive].

 

No, but Upton isn't so good you make that move without giving Jackson the chance. B.J Upton is not an impact player.

[Little Slide Rooter]

It's not crazy at all. Certainly not as crazy as thinking of passing over Upton because of Brett [expletive] Jackson.

 

If it's Jackson at minimum or Upton @ 15MM+ per year I'm taking Jackson. They look to be similar players (hit for moderate power, low average, take walks and strike out a ton), at least similar enough I wouldn't overpay for Upton.

 

Precisely, The B.J. Uptons and Chris Youngs of the world are usually good for a 3.0-3.5 oWAR as center fielders with their .750-.775 OPS, but move them to a corner spot, and the value is going to drop which is why if were to sign Upton I'd rather try to trade Jackson, hopefully for a pitching prospect with front end potential and find a way to get a few .850-.900 OPS guys for the corners. I know Corey Hart for 1 is going to be a free agent in 2014 and he's been a 3.8 and 4.0 WAR player the past 2 seasons. As for 2013, I'm fairly certain that we could pry Michael Taylor from the A's for a reasonable price and give him a look. Then, in 2014 we have:

 

1B Rizzo

2B Barney/Cardenas/Lake/?

SS. Castro

3B. Vitters/Stewart/Lake

LF. Michael Young

CF. Upton

RF. Hart

C. Castillo

SP Garza

SP ?

SP Shark

SP McNutt

SP Volstad/Wood

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

So let's set aside the 15MM+ number for a moment. Like it or not, Brett Jackson's presence impacts how much interest the Cubs would have in Upton, for clear reasons. They are players with similar skill sets who play the same position. Upton is not the caliber or player that you jump on regardless of who you have waiting in the wings. Neither's bats would likely be adequate on the corners long term.

 

Whoa whoa whoa...as bad as you think Upton is he was a significantly more high profile prospect than Jackson who did better in the minors and was up in the bigs having a monster season at Jackson's age.

 

In actuality this is exactly the class of player you want the Cubs to pursue, especially factoring age and park factors in...Were talking an above average CFer in his prime here.....

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

WSR Upton is better than Young and has been around a 4 WAR CF the past three years IIRC.

 

Would pass on Young tbh...actually an overrated player.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, suddenly $15 million is overpaying for Upton? What the [expletive]? This getting absurd.

 

I know, suddenly it has become fashionable to play the role of penny pincher on this board. The fact of the matter is theo didnt win the WS by playing small market mentality with the red sox. Sure some of his prospects were difference makers but the vast majority of both teams were major trade or free agent signings. Anyone who thinks that the cubs can 'build' a world series contender solely through the draft is not only ignorant but arrogant. No team in the last 20 year years has won without a major free agent acquisition. Even the marlins teams. You cant ignore free agency. And you cant wait and assume free agents will be available when you need them. Sometimes you just need to go get them.

 

I'm fine with spending money, I'm just not fine with spending money to spend it. IMO, Upton would be redundant. If this were Justin Upton, I'd say break the bank.

 

He's not redundant. Brett Jackson has proven [expletive].

 

No, but Upton isn't so good you make that move without giving Jackson the chance. B.J Upton is not an impact player.

 

That's a ridiculous high standard to want/expect. The Cubs should only sign impact players, and no FA's below that arbitrary and subjective level to any position where they have a decent prospect who might succeed with the team in the next 2-3 years unless it's a bargain? Come on.

 

And Upton's been an 8 WAR player over the last two season. I know that's not the end-all stat, but to just deem him as not being "impact" like it's a fact seems like a reach.

Edited April 17, 2012 by Sammy Sofa

[XZero771679666304]

So let's set aside the 15MM+ number for a moment. Like it or not, Brett Jackson's presence impacts how much interest the Cubs would have in Upton, for clear reasons. They are players with similar skill sets who play the same position. Upton is not the caliber or player that you jump on regardless of who you have waiting in the wings. Neither's bats would likely be adequate on the corners long term.

 

Whoa whoa whoa...as bad as you think Upton is he was a significantly more high profile prospect than Jackson who did better in the minors and was up in the bigs having a monster season at Jackson's age.

 

In actuality this is exactly the class of player you want the Cubs to pursue, especially factoring age and park factors in...Were talking an above average CFer in his prime here.....

 

I didn't say Upton was bad, I said he wasn't so good you give him the job without letting Jackson take a crack at it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think Brett Jackson has a lot more to prove before he's good enough that you pass on a 4-WAR major leaguer in his favor.

[Sammy Sofa]

I didn't say Upton was bad, I said he wasn't so good you give him the job without letting Jackson take a crack at it.

 

Jackson isn't good enough (barring some HUGE leaps forward this year) to pass on a proven commodity like Upton so he can "take a crack at it."

[sneakypower]

there are actually three positions in the outfield, you fools