Yooooooooooooennis Cespedes: To Oakland pg 44

[XZero771679666304]

 

That's a ridiculous high standard to want/expect. The Cubs should only sign impact players, and no FA's below that arbitrary and subjective level to any position where they have a decent prospect who might succeed with the team in the next 2-3 years unless it's a bargain? Come on.

 

And Upton's been an 8 WAR player over the last two season. I know that's not the end-all stat, but to just deem as not being "impact" like it's a fact seems like a reach.

 

So we should sign any player who represents an immediate upgrade at their position regardless of what prospects are waiting in the wings?

 

If you have player who is one of your top 2-3 prospects and is nearly ML ready, you should only block them if it's to acquire a top-flight player. Particularly if neither player looks like a fit at another position.

 

I'm not talking about superstars, Upton wasn't even top 10 among CF in OPS last year. Behind guys like Jon Jay, Melky Cabrera and Dexter Fowler. He has a hard time making contact and doesn't hit for enough power or walk enough to move his offensive game into the "very good" range.

 

He's a good player, but I hardly see a pressing reason to pay the guy a bunch of money when Jackson is there. Is that really so offensive?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

So let's set aside the 15MM+ number for a moment. Like it or not, Brett Jackson's presence impacts how much interest the Cubs would have in Upton, for clear reasons. They are players with similar skill sets who play the same position. Upton is not the caliber or player that you jump on regardless of who you have waiting in the wings. Neither's bats would likely be adequate on the corners long term.

 

Whoa whoa whoa...as bad as you think Upton is he was a significantly more high profile prospect than Jackson who did better in the minors and was up in the bigs having a monster season at Jackson's age.

 

In actuality this is exactly the class of player you want the Cubs to pursue, especially factoring age and park factors in...Were talking an above average CFer in his prime here.....

 

I didn't say Upton was bad, I said he wasn't so good you give him the job without letting Jackson take a crack at it.

 

Even that's not true...to be perfectly honest Jackson is kind of a sell high guy if he is pretty much the same player as last year. Hea as likely to regress as he is to take a leap....and I see Upton post-injury as pretty damn close to his ceiling, while BJ has showed some signs of moving past his injury.

 

Drink the numbers in...far more like Upton than dislike him...

[XZero771679666304]

there are actually three positions in the outfield, you fools

 

 

Do you think either Jackson or Upton's bats would play on the corners? I see either's value taking a dive in such a scenario.

[Guest]

Let's not pretend that Jackson is a no-doubt CF defensively for the next five years. There's a very good chance of him moving to a corner during that time anyway.

[XZero771679666304]

Let's not pretend that Jackson is a no-doubt CF defensively for the next five years. There's a very good chance of him moving to a corner during that time anyway.

 

If Bjax is going to have value on a corner, he better cut down on the K's. A lot.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

That's a ridiculous high standard to want/expect. The Cubs should only sign impact players, and no FA's below that arbitrary and subjective level to any position where they have a decent prospect who might succeed with the team in the next 2-3 years unless it's a bargain? Come on.

 

And Upton's been an 8 WAR player over the last two season. I know that's not the end-all stat, but to just deem as not being "impact" like it's a fact seems like a reach.

 

So we should sign any player who represents an immediate upgrade at their position regardless of what prospects are waiting in the wings?

 

If you have player who is one of your top 2-3 prospects and is nearly ML ready, you should only block them if it's to acquire a top-flight player. Particularly if neither player looks like a fit at another position.

 

I'm not talking about superstars, Upton wasn't even top 10 among CF in OPS last year. Behind guys like Jon Jay, Melky Cabrera and Dexter Fowler. He has a hard time making contact and doesn't hit for enough power or walk enough to move his offensive game into the "very good" range.

 

He's a good player, but I hardly see a pressing reason to pay the guy a bunch of money when Jackson is there. Is that really so offensive?

 

Yes, because metrics beyond OPS value him higher, and I place more stock in that bigger picture.

 

Jackson being one of the Cubs' top 2-3 prospects is an indictment of the Cubs' system as it stands, not a ringing endorsement of the necessity of Jackson's place on the big league team. The case can easily be made that Upton IS the type of player that should be signed despite the presence of a promising but flawed prospect because you're largely know what you're getting into and he provides a LOT of value. Jackson is unproven and isn't good enough right now to merit passing on an available player like Upton simply because he's there.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

If you have player who is one of your top 2-3 prospects and is nearly ML ready, you should only block them if it's to acquire a top-flight player. Particularly if neither player looks like a fit at another position.

 

That depends on how good the two-three prospect is...It's not like Jackson is the champion of a great system...A better #1 than Archer sure, but relative to the rest of the baseball world hes not a top tier prospect....

 

And let's be serious here...Melky Cabrera and whoever is a better offensive or all around player than Upton?

[Sammy Sofa]

If you have player who is one of your top 2-3 prospects and is nearly ML ready, you should only block them if it's to acquire a top-flight player. Particularly if neither player looks like a fit at another position.

 

That depends on how good the two-three prospect is...It's not like Jackson is the champion of a great system...A better #1 than Archer sure, but relative to the rest of the baseball world hes not a top tier prospect....

 

And let's be serious here...Melky Cabrera and whoever is a better offensive or all around player than Upton?

 

To be fair, Melky had a hell of a season with the bat last year. I'm curious to see if he can repeat it again before he becomes a FA for 2013. That said, he also had his worst year defensively.

 

Upton was, however, clearly more valuable offensively than Jay and Fowler.

[XZero771679666304]

 

Yes, because metrics beyond OPS value him higher, and I place more stock in that bigger picture.

 

Jackson being one of the Cubs' top 2-3 prospects is an indictment of the Cubs' system as it stands, not a ringing endorsement of the necessity of Jackson's place on the big league team. The case can easily be made that Upton IS the type of player that should be signed despite the presence of a promising but flawed prospect because you're largely know what you're getting into and he provides a LOT of value. Jackson is unproven and isn't good enough right now to merit passing on an available player like Upton simply because he's there.

 

Jackson was also the #32 overall prospect according to BA, so it's not as if he's just the tallest midget.

 

And aside from WAR, I don't any numbers that portray Upton as anything but a slightly above average offensive CFer, and I don't see any indications he's been bizarrely unlucky or poised for a breakout.

 

But unless BJax cuts down his Ks and shows something in the second half of this year, my sentiment on this issue may well change. If Upton could bring his OBP up 20-30 points that would go a long way, imo.

[dew1679666265]

I'm still completely unconvinced Upton and BJax can't coexist in the same OF. Just because he doesn't hit for enough power doesn't mean you don't sign a 4+ WAR player. Even if Upton/BJax loses offensive value due to a move to a corner, he gains defensive value by moving to a corner. And with the emphasis on pitching and defense the Theo regime has brought, I don't think you can overlook that.

 

Worst case scenario is Upton gives us around 4 WAR for, probably, the next 2-4 years before declining. Best case scenario, you figure out why he's been BABIP-unlucky the past couple of years, fix it, and he becomes an elite 5-6 WAR player over that time frame. He's in the prime of his career (28), plays great defense in CF, is very patient, and has some potential for upside. Exactly the type of player the Cubs should be pursuing - alongside players like Brett Jackson, not instead of.

[Guest]

 

Yes, because metrics beyond OPS value him higher, and I place more stock in that bigger picture.

 

Jackson being one of the Cubs' top 2-3 prospects is an indictment of the Cubs' system as it stands, not a ringing endorsement of the necessity of Jackson's place on the big league team. The case can easily be made that Upton IS the type of player that should be signed despite the presence of a promising but flawed prospect because you're largely know what you're getting into and he provides a LOT of value. Jackson is unproven and isn't good enough right now to merit passing on an available player like Upton simply because he's there.

 

Jackson was also the #32 overall prospect according to BA, so it's not as if he's just the tallest midget.

 

And aside from WAR, I don't any numbers that portray Upton as anything but a slightly above average offensive CFer, and I don't see any indications he's been bizarrely unlucky or poised for a breakout.

 

But unless BJax cuts down his Ks and shows something in the second half of this year, my sentiment on this issue may well change. If Upton could bring his OBP up 20-30 points that would go a long way, imo.

Trop to Wrigley probably takes care of that on its own.

[Guest]

I'm still completely unconvinced Upton and BJax can't coexist in the same OF. Just because he doesn't hit for enough power doesn't mean you don't sign a 4+ WAR player. Even if Upton/BJax loses offensive value due to a move to a corner, he gains defensive value by moving to a corner. And with the emphasis on pitching and defense the Theo regime has brought, I don't think you can overlook that.

 

Worst case scenario is Upton gives us around 4 WAR for, probably, the next 2-4 years before declining. Best case scenario, you figure out why he's been BABIP-unlucky the past couple of years, fix it, and he becomes an elite 5-6 WAR player over that time frame. He's in the prime of his career (28), plays great defense in CF, is very patient, and has some potential for upside. Exactly the type of player the Cubs should be pursuing - alongside players like Brett Jackson, not instead of.

Yeah, I think this thread is full of a false choice between the two. I'd be happy with both in my OF.

[Sammy Sofa]

Jackson was also the #32 overall prospect according to BA, so it's not as if he's just the tallest midget.

 

Well, it still kinda is. #32 is hardly a slam dunk prospect.

 

And aside from WAR, I don't any numbers that portray Upton as anything but a slightly above average offensive CFer, and I don't see any indications he's been bizarrely unlucky or poised for a breakout.

 

But unless BJax cuts down his Ks and shows something in the second half of this year, my sentiment on this issue may well change. If Upton could bring his OBP up 20-30 points that would go a long way, imo.

 

He doesn't have to be poised for a breakout for him to already be very valuable to the Cubs; he'd be a damn good addition as is. And even if he was just a "slightly above average CFer" that still puts him well ahead of the need to reserve room for Jackson.

Edited April 17, 2012 by Sammy Sofa

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm still completely unconvinced Upton and BJax can't coexist in the same OF. Just because he doesn't hit for enough power doesn't mean you don't sign a 4+ WAR player. Even if Upton/BJax loses offensive value due to a move to a corner, he gains defensive value by moving to a corner. And with the emphasis on pitching and defense the Theo regime has brought, I don't think you can overlook that.

 

Worst case scenario is Upton gives us around 4 WAR for, probably, the next 2-4 years before declining. Best case scenario, you figure out why he's been BABIP-unlucky the past couple of years, fix it, and he becomes an elite 5-6 WAR player over that time frame. He's in the prime of his career (28), plays great defense in CF, is very patient, and has some potential for upside. Exactly the type of player the Cubs should be pursuing - alongside players like Brett Jackson, not instead of.

 

Well said.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, I think this thread is full of a false choice between the two. I'd be happy with both in my OF.

 

"This thread?" It's pretty much one guy saying it's one or the other, and that neither can likely man a corner OF spot. I think it's safe to say most here would love to have both.

Edited April 17, 2012 by Sammy Sofa

[Guest]

- Jackson's value doesn't nosedive if he plays RF. There isn't an offensive chasm between RF and CF, and Jackson's glove probably plays up there anyway.

 

- Upton was a Top 10 CF last year in both wOBA and wRC+. He adds a lot of value by stealing a lot of bases.

[dew1679666265]

And aside from WAR, I don't any numbers that portray Upton as anything but a slightly above average offensive CFer, and I don't see any indications he's been bizarrely unlucky or poised for a breakout.

 

I don't know that I'd call it bizarre, but his BABIP has been going down the past couple of years while his LD% has been going up - and right in line with his career LD%. Tack 30 points onto his BABIP to get it in line with his career BABIP and his numbers probably take a pretty decent jump up.

[davell]

I would love to see Brett and Upton in the same OF.

[Splendid Splinter]

I would love to see Brett and Upton in the same OF.

 

How about Brett, Upton, AND Upton in the same OF?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I would love to see Brett and Upton in the same OF.

 

How about Brett, Upton, AND Upton in the same OF?

 

That's the dream 2015!

[CubColtPacer]

And aside from WAR, I don't any numbers that portray Upton as anything but a slightly above average offensive CFer, and I don't see any indications he's been bizarrely unlucky or poised for a breakout.

 

I don't know that I'd call it bizarre, but his BABIP has been going down the past couple of years while his LD% has been going up - and right in line with his career LD%. Tack 30 points onto his BABIP to get it in line with his career BABIP and his numbers probably take a pretty decent jump up.

 

It's very likely that Upton was BABIP lucky his first few years more than being BABIP unlucky these last few. Plus he's changed who he is as a hitter the last few years. His GB/FB ratio has changed dramatically-he used to be a major ground ball hitter and now he's even, and that's going to cut into his BABIP. He's already a very good player, but I don't see much room for any more of a breakout in his peripherals.

[dew1679666265]

It's very likely that Upton was BABIP lucky his first few years more than being BABIP unlucky these last few. Plus he's changed who he is as a hitter the last few years. His GB/FB ratio has changed dramatically-he used to be a major ground ball hitter and now he's even, and that's going to cut into his BABIP. He's already a very good player, but I don't see much room for any more of a breakout in his peripherals.

 

I wonder if the change as a hitter is something that just naturally occurred, or if it's a slight mechanical breakdown that could be fixed. I agree if he doesn't get his GB/FB ratio back to the pre-2009 levels, then he probably is what he is offensively - which is perfectly fine as is, especially when coupled with his defense.

 

His infield flyball ratio has gone up as well the past 3 years, which makes me wonder if it is something mechanical.

[dew1679666265]

I would love to see Brett and Upton in the same OF.

 

How about Brett, Upton, AND Upton in the same OF?

 

I would really love to see that. To make this post topical as well, an OF of BJax/Upton/Cespedes would've been really enjoyable to watch too.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I have no doubt that Jackson or Upton could hold down RF or LF defensively, but offensively, I'd simply like a few bigger bats. Basically, I'd rather spend the money for what we don't have rather than duplicating what we do have. Castro really seems to me like a guy who will be a 2 hitter type with high average, modest power but a lot of extra base hits. Rizzo is the only guy we currently have who seems like he could be a real heart of the order type, and even that's no sure thing. The corner OF spots are really where we could put them. Andre Ethier and to a much lesser extent, Delmon Young are guys who are more likely to be .850-.900 OPS guys and would likely be cheaper than Upton. If we could get one for a modest price, though that's easier said than done and stick with Dejesus in RF in 2013 and sign Corey Hart for 2014, and we could have a pretty strong lineup of 1. Jax 2. Castro 3. Ethier 4. Hart 5. Rizzo 6. Vitters/Stewart 7. Castillo 8. whoever's manning 2nd. Add in a Garza extension, another front end starter, and for enough of our younger prospects to pan out and we have the type of team that can contend long term.

[sneakypower]

Andre Ethier and to a much lesser extent, Delmon Young are guys who are more likely to be .850-.900 OPS guys and would likely be cheaper than Upton.

Delmon Young: .288/.321/.427 (.749 OPS), career fWAR: 1.5

BJ Upton: .257/.342/.416 (.759 OPS), career fWAR: 19.8 (in 82 more games)