Yooooooooooooennis Cespedes: To Oakland pg 44

[sneakypower]

at any rate, a big part of the reason i'd want to go after Upton is i don't really think it'll take that much to get him

 

his agent is going to have a hard time selling him based on what teams typically seem to value: .257 avg, career high of 24 HR, 82 RBI (both were five years ago), no gold gloves...it might be only the analytical front offices that truly realize his worth, and they mostly won't have the resources to make huge overtures for him

Edited April 17, 2012 by sneakypower

[Guest]

Andre Ethier of 11 HR in 552 PA's last year? Who will be 31 at the start of his next contract?

 

Pass.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Take away 2011 and Ethier is a career .857 OPS. Wrigley could certainly give that a boost. Sure he'll be 31, but assuming he has a rebound this season and if he'd take a 4 year deal, perhaps with vesting options how far of a cliff can he fall off (famous last words). The same with Hart, he'll be 32 at the beginning of his next contract, but as long as the rest of the core (Jax, Castro, Rizzo, Castillo, Vitters) are between 23-25 with plenty of prospects pumping through the system we could live with a few high priced vets in their 30's. This isn't Logans Run. We don't need to kill anything over 30.

[SouthSideRyan]

Isn't Ethier supposed to be a really bad fielder?

[El Duderino]

Isn't Ethier supposed to be a really bad fielder?

 

He won a gold glove last year, so probably.

[dew1679666265]

Isn't Ethier supposed to be a really bad fielder?

 

UZR/150 has him as a career -1.6 fielder in left, -7.0 fielder in right. Overall, he's a -5.7 UZR/150 outfielder in almost 7,000 innings.

[dew1679666265]

Isn't Ethier supposed to be a really bad fielder?

 

He won a gold glove last year, so probably.

 

UZR/150 did like him last year - 5.3 fielder in right - but that was coming off two really dreadful seasons of -13.5 and -16.5.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Andre Ethier and to a much lesser extent, Delmon Young are guys who are more likely to be .850-.900 OPS guys and would likely be cheaper than Upton.

Delmon Young: .288/.321/.427 (.749 OPS), career fWAR: 1.5

BJ Upton: .257/.342/.416 (.759 OPS), career fWAR: 19.8 (in 82 more games)

 

The trouble with Delmon is that whatever he does this season makes him sort of a catch 22. Either he has a mediocre season like he has the majority of his big league career aside from 2010, and he's only worth signing if he'll take a 2-3 year low base salary/incentive laden contract or he has a breakout year, and somebody overpays for him in hopes that it's not just a fluke.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Andre Ethier and to a much lesser extent, Delmon Young are guys who are more likely to be .850-.900 OPS guys and would likely be cheaper than Upton.

Delmon Young: .288/.321/.427 (.749 OPS), career fWAR: 1.5

BJ Upton: .257/.342/.416 (.759 OPS), career fWAR: 19.8 (in 82 more games)

 

The trouble with Delmon is that whatever he does this season makes him sort of a catch 22. Either he has a mediocre season like he has the majority of his big league career aside from 2010, and he's only worth signing if he'll take a 2-3 year low base salary/incentive laden contract or he has a breakout year, and somebody overpays for him in hopes that it's not just a fluke.

 

Wouldn't touch Young with a 10 foot pole...Just don't trust the player and don't even find his talent to be exceptional.

 

Agreed with sp that when you see Upton brought up next offseason it will be with him connected to the teams with big name/innovative FOs.

[KingCubsFan]

at any rate, a big part of the reason i'd want to go after Upton is i don't really think it'll take that much to get him

 

his agent is going to have a hard time selling him based on what teams typically seem to value: .257 avg, career high of 24 HR, 82 RBI (both were five years ago), no gold gloves...it might be only the analytical front offices that truly realize his worth, and they mostly won't have the resources to make huge overtures for him

Agreed. He's not worth getting if he's going to be paid like an elite CFer. It's a good thing that the Red Sox and Yankees are set in CF (although I suppose the Red Sox could shift Ellsbury again). I could see the Mariners going hard after him. Same with the Nationals.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Agreed. He's not worth getting if he's going to be paid like an elite CFer. It's a good thing that the Red Sox and Yankees are set in CF (although I suppose the Red Sox could shift Ellsbury again). I could see the Mariners going hard after him. Same with the Nationals.

 

Was thinking the Mets as well, though they might not be spending...the Yankees might let Granderson hit the market because they have to pay Cano and want to spend a little less.

 

We're going to see teams that value defense go after him for sure. The Giants are a nice sleeper, though they're usually not big in the FA game.

 

Speaking of the Mets....yay or nay on David Wright? Another one that could see a boost in numbers upon leaving his home park IMO, but even then I find his decline a little overblown. I do think they'll work to keep him just because he's supposedly the face of the franchise, but there's a legit shot he hits FA.

[Exile on Waveland]

I would sign B.J. Upton so fast it would make the free agency-averse posters' -- and, let's be frank, that's what they are -- heads' spin. A player entering his prime, who has underacheived his talent as a four-WAR player? Uh, yes please.

[dew1679666265]

Speaking of the Mets....yay or nay on David Wright? Another one that could see a boost in numbers upon leaving his home park IMO, but even then I find his decline a little overblown. I do think they'll work to keep him just because he's supposedly the face of the franchise, but there's a legit shot he hits FA.

 

Not a fan of David Wright at this point. Even if you don't fully buy into his decline (which I do), there's still a lot of question marks and reasons for concern there that it makes it too risky. Add in that his name value and position could boost his cost even more, I don't think it's worth the risk. I would inquire, especially if Ian Stewart doesn't develop this year, but I'd be really careful about the price.

[KingCubsFan]

I would sign B.J. Upton so fast it would make the free agency-averse posters' -- and, let's be frank, that's what they are -- heads' spin. A player entering his prime, who has underacheived his talent as a four-WAR player? Uh, yes please.

How high would you be willing to go?

[sneakypower]

i'd even go as high as something like 5/80, 7/91, permitting his shoulder gets fully cleared by team docs

 

but like i said earlier, i do doubt that he'll be able to command that much

[Exile on Waveland]

Assuming he's healthy and doesn't bottom-out this year, I'd definitely go that high (not sure it will be needed though). This team needs a talent infusion and, as a major market team, should and can afford to pay for one (as one avenue of team improvement). And what exactly is the Cubs outfield now? Soriano's corpse, Byrd's corpse, DeJesus, and maybe, maybe Brett Jackson. Pay a man.

 

That or just wait until the team is one player away and a perfect player with no health concerns in his prime and perfect production for his position is available for a at-market deal in free agency. Because that'll happen.

[Rob]

I would sign B.J. Upton so fast it would make the free agency-averse posters' -- and, let's be frank, that's what they are -- heads' spin. A player entering his prime, who has underacheived his talent as a four-WAR player? Uh, yes please.

 

As the poster child for the "free agency-averse posters" I'd be thrilled to sign BJ Upton. He's exactly the sort of player I want to have the money available for.

[davell]

I'm pretty sure Theo said 28 as his target age for bigtime FA, right? Upton and Greinke fit that, although Greinke and his anxiety issues give me pause for sure.

[Exile on Waveland]

I would sign B.J. Upton so fast it would make the free agency-averse posters' -- and, let's be frank, that's what they are -- heads' spin. A player entering his prime, who has underacheived his talent as a four-WAR player? Uh, yes please.

 

As the poster child for the "free agency-averse posters" I'd be thrilled to sign BJ Upton. He's exactly the sort of player I want to have the money available for.

 

He is to me, too. I'd probably argue he makes more sense than some even better players. Besides the fact he's in his prime, he's a good candidate to be worth his contract. Considering what we might expect his deal to be worth -- shouldn't be some crazy Fielder-esque deal -- he should fulfill it merely by having his previous five WARs of 4.7, 4.0, 1.1, 4.3, and 3.8. I would go a step further: he is the type of player that might over-perform his contract. He's still young and his talent says he should be even better.

[Exile on Waveland]

I'm pretty sure Theo said 28 as his target age for bigtime FA, right? Upton and Greinke fit that, although Greinke and his anxiety issues give me pause for sure.

 

I'm annoyed that the Cubs haven't signed good players to this point and want them to spend in coming seasons. And yet, I wouldn't sign Greinke.*

 

 

*For the deal I expect he'll receive.

Edited April 20, 2012 by Exile on Waveland

[dew1679666265]

I'm annoyed that the Cubs haven't signed good players to this point and am want them to spend in comings season. And yet, I wouldn't sign Greinke.*

 

 

*For the deal I expect he'll receive.

 

I'm in the same boat. Pitchers in free agency concern me quite a bit anyway - and even moreso pitchers who will likely be seeking huge 6 year deals and have anxiety problems.

[KingCubsFan]

I'm pretty sure Theo said 28 as his target age for bigtime FA, right? Upton and Greinke fit that, although Greinke and his anxiety issues give me pause for sure.

 

I'm annoyed that the Cubs haven't signed good players to this point and want them to spend in coming seasons. And yet, I wouldn't sign Greinke.*

 

 

*For the deal I expect he'll receive.

The anxiety issue is huge, but on performance alone, he may be the best bet to get a relatively reasonable deal in free agency. His ERA's have been much higher than his FIP and xFIP the past few years. If he puts up another ERA near 4, I think a lot of teams would lose interest.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I'm pretty sure Theo said 28 as his target age for bigtime FA, right? Upton and Greinke fit that, although Greinke and his anxiety issues give me pause for sure.

 

I'm annoyed that the Cubs haven't signed good players to this point and want them to spend in coming seasons. And yet, I wouldn't sign Greinke.*

 

 

*For the deal I expect he'll receive.

 

+1

 

The guy they SHOULD be going after is one, Cole Hamels. I hear he's got some talent. I think he's capable of and ready to lead a staff.

 

Greinke seems to be a favorite here. My guess has been because he's the one everyone's seen the most. He's a few years removed from being crazy, but does crazy just leave? Would he really want to come to one of the three actual cities in this country with all of his social anxiety problems?

[javy knows my name]

I'm pretty sure Theo said 28 as his target age for bigtime FA, right? Upton and Greinke fit that, although Greinke and his anxiety issues give me pause for sure.

 

I'm annoyed that the Cubs haven't signed good players to this point and want them to spend in coming seasons. And yet, I wouldn't sign Greinke.*

 

 

*For the deal I expect he'll receive.

 

+1

 

The guy they SHOULD be going after is one, Cole Hamels. I hear he's got some talent. I think he's capable of and ready to lead a staff.

 

Greinke seems to be a favorite here. My guess has been because he's the one everyone's seen the most. He's a few years removed from being crazy, but does crazy just leave? Would he really want to come to one of the three actual cities in this country with all of his social anxiety problems?

 

Doesn't seem to be the case.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

 

Doesn't seem to be the case.

 

+1

 

Personally feel like it follows me around.