Ramirez declines option

[Clem Fandango]

He was my favorite Cubs player since he came to the team. Would hate to see him go, but that's baseball. I still think there's a good chance he comes back. I would imagine having the front office we have now would make playing in Chicago mighty appealing to any player past, present, or future.

[davearm2]

I mentioned this in another thread, but Theo was faced with a very similar situation a few years ago with Mike Lowell. That time he re-upped the guy. The end result was not pretty.

[Sammy Sofa]

Great analysis.

[Guest]

I would love to see the Cubs bring Aramis back for a team-friendly 2 year deal but I'm not sure hed be interested in such a short deal. If Aramis doesn't return, I think Ian Stewart would be my top choice.

[SABR Gamer]

I would love to see the Cubs bring Aramis back for a team-friendly 2 year deal but I'm not sure hed be interested in such a short deal. If Aramis doesn't return, I think Ian Stewart would be my top choice.

 

Stewart is definitely intriguing. What do you think is a realistic outcome for him next year? In his prime? (BA/OBP/SLG, HR, WAR, Defensive ability)

 

I like his Minor League stats, and I like his IsoD, but that's just at a glance. I haven't really kept up with his career/projected growth.

[toonsterwu]

Stewart would be a fine gamble, but he has one major issue in that, he's an aggressive swinger who doesn't really have great contact ability. This isn't the best measure of things, but he's increasingly swinging at more and more pitches outside of the zone but his contact rate on those swings is sub 60%. I mean, of qualified batters this year, only 3 guys, at a quick glance, swung at a 32% or more of pitches outside of the strike zone and had a sub 60% contact rate on them (Mike Stanton, Carlos Gonzalez, Peter Bourjos). For comparison's sake, Starlin Castro swung at 33.1% of pitches outside of the strike zone, but made contact on it 70.8% of the time. Is this correctable for a guy at his age and development? I don't know, and I don't have time to search to see if there are any studies done. A very quick glance of the Red Sox rosters didn't seem to show many guys who had rates similar to Stewart.

 

That said, this is just an awful third base market, and if Stewart is available, I think you ask about the price and see if it's workable. I get the feeling that he's going to be a much talked about name this off-season, but may not get moved unless the return really forces them into action. After all, the Rockies top 3rd base prospect, Nolan Arenado, is probably at least a full year away in a positive scenario, and more likely, perhaps close to 2 years away, assuming all goes well.

 

_________________________

 

The Ramirez situation, so far, definitely shows in a clear way that a new regime was in play. One got the feeling that, more time than not, in a situation involving potential arbitration guys that the Cubs didn't want and could net them picks, that the Cubs would "do right" by the players. Instead, Epstein is doing right by the organization. If they accept arb, the difference between what it would've cost, as noted above, isn't much, and if they don't, and Aramis leaves, we get a pick. Granted, a supplemental pick, but this is doing right for the organization and the fan base that cares.

 

_________________________

 

If there aren't any solid young 3rd basemen that can be attained (Headley, Stewart), I'm perfectly fine going with a Jeff Baker/platoon combination. I mean, I'm intrigued a tiny bit with Kevin Kouzmanoff, but not that intrigued to think he's a better option than Baker/platoon. I doubt the Cubs push that hard on Aramis - I'd guess that they'd make him an offer, akin to how Theo made Nomar an offer (granted, Nomar wasn't a FA at that point), but I doubt it'd be close to what market value might get Aramis, and I doubt he'd get more than 3 years from Theo.

 

__________________________

 

I do wonder about two things -

 

a) Might they pursue a minor league 3rd basemen? For example, I'm not huge on Will Middlebrooks, but he can pick it at 3rd and could be a Joe Crede-esque player (may not be the best comp). I doubt the Red Sox move him, but it's not impossible. Or maybe pursue someone on the Padres (though I doubt James Darnell can stick at 3rd ... it's not like the market is offering better).

 

b) I still think back to Theo's first moves with the Red Sox. It was really more a pieces to the puzzle approach. It's a far different situation here, as he doesn't inherit the strong core he had in Boston, but I do wonder if he tries to follow a similar approach here and looks heavily at the non-tenders, perhaps plucks a couple guys in Rule 5, and perhaps pursue a couple 2nd tier FA's. Gut instinct says we still push hard for a Top FA, or two, but I wonder. Granted, Phil Rogers (enough said) and Kevin Goldstein (not sure how connected he is to the Cubs or Theo) aren't exactly guys I pay strong heed to when it comes to their statements about the Cubs actions (but it does catch my eye), but both seem to think that the Cubs will pass on a big ticket first base item. Then I also think about Theo's final days in Boston. He knows he put them in a bad spot, and I wonder if that experience may impact how he pushes forward this off-season.

 

____________________________

 

One final thought that doesn't really fit here - We know they pay a strong focus on medical assessments. I wonder if Darvish's and CJ Wilson's arm actions are things that may concern them in regards to making a long term commitment.

 

____________________________

 

Only thing I'm certain of? No one really has a clear idea on what Epstein and Co's plans are and that will make this off-season all the more exciting.

[Little Slide Rooter]

@cst_cubs Cubs exercise Ramirez's $16M option for '12. Ramirez informs club he'll decline. Cubs secure sup.draft pick comp.

 

http://twitter.com/#!/cst_cubs/status/13085130176765132

Wouldn't they still have to offer arbitration to get the compensation? Merely exercising the option isn't enough.

 

Yeah, but it's pretty obvioud that they'll offer arb, and he'll turn it down. As I said before, Aramis projects to be a type B but Placido Polanco and Jeff Keppinger Typa A's, so I don't get how that works.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Avoiding Ramirez's buyout puts us down to $70.6 million committed for six players 2012.

 

We employed 10 pre-arb players last year, and I think that number should be at least 8 this year. So that's about 4 million for 8 spots. Now we have $74.6 million for 14 spots.

 

I think $22 million is a good estimate for our arbitration eligibles ($8 to Garza, $5 to Soto, $3 to Samardijza, not much for the rest, leaving some room for me to be underestimating Garza or Soto). $96.6 million for 20 spots.

 

That leaves us with roughly $40 million for five spots, and still short a starting pitcher, a 1b and a 3b at the minimum.

[Guest]

Nominally, we still have five starters on the roster.

 

Garza

Dempster

Zambrano

Wells

Cashner/Coleman

 

However, I hope like heck that we go out and get at least one more starter. Preferably a #2 quality guy.

[Bruno7481]

I think a SP is a must as well. There is no way Cashner can be counted on to be in the rotation after missing basically the entire season. He is probably going to be on some sort of innings limit, and if he was in the rotation, he won't be the entire year.

 

I think you are likely to see him in a relief role with a chance at starting in 2013.

[Guest]

It's sad to see him go, but 3B is the hole we can best fill with internal options. I could probably make a pretty good case for a DeWitt/Baker platoon being only a win or so worse than Aramis. Vitters, Flaherty, LeMahieu, Marquez Smith, and even Marwin Gonzalez could also be potential positive contributors, though I wouldn't project any of that crew particularly close to 3.6 WAR. The Angels might make Alberto Callaspo available fairly cheaply (and he may actually may approach 3.6 WAR). In addition, there's a few other cheaply available guys like Kevin Kouzmanoff who might be worth taking a flier on.

 

1B and the front of the rotation are more pressing needs, as we have no real options to fill those spots.

 

 

I want to believe.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's sad to see him go, but 3B is the hole we can best fill with internal options. I could probably make a pretty good case for a DeWitt/Baker platoon being only a win or so worse than Aramis. Vitters, Flaherty, LeMahieu, Marquez Smith, and even Marwin Gonzalez could also be potential positive contributors, though I wouldn't project any of that crew particularly close to 3.6 WAR. The Angels might make Alberto Callaspo available fairly cheaply (and he may actually may approach 3.6 WAR). In addition, there's a few other cheaply available guys like Kevin Kouzmanoff who might be worth taking a flier on.

 

1B and the front of the rotation are more pressing needs, as we have no real options to fill those spots.

 

 

I want to believe.

 

It's pretty easy to get there. Average out his last three seasons, project in a tiny bit of decline, and assume the replacement platoon can play adequate defense.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't know if I want someone on the Cubs named Collapse-o.

[JeffH]

Avoiding Ramirez's buyout puts us down to $70.6 million committed for six players 2012.

 

How do you get to $70.6?

 

The only way I can get there is if Dempster is at $16.0. That would mean that 2/3 of the $3 he deferred is going to be paid this year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Avoiding Ramirez's buyout puts us down to $70.6 million committed for six players 2012.

 

How do you get to $70.6?

 

The only way I can get there is if Dempster is at $16.0. That would mean that 2/3 of the $3 he deferred is going to be paid this year.

 

I use Cot's Baseball Contracts, which provides this spreadsheet:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tt7HjIernphaSrv4wMWdUYg&output=html

 

$19 for Soriano, $19 for Zambrano, $14 for Dempster, $6.5 for Byrd, $7 for Marmol, $3.1 for Marshall and still $2 to Silva.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Let's see...the Cubs just hired the Padres GM....they're a retooling team that doesn't spend much...Cubs lose their 3B...Padres have a solid everyday 3B entering his prime who could get them a couple of solid prospects...the Cubs have solid prospects...

 

I like the Stewart idea some too, but I'd like to see the Cubs go after Headley. I'd like it ven moreso if they go after one of the big 1B...

[JeffH]

Avoiding Ramirez's buyout puts us down to $70.6 million committed for six players 2012.

 

How do you get to $70.6?

 

The only way I can get there is if Dempster is at $16.0. That would mean that 2/3 of the $3 he deferred is going to be paid this year.

 

I use Cot's Baseball Contracts, which provides this spreadsheet:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tt7HjIernphaSrv4wMWdUYg&output=html

 

$19 for Soriano, $19 for Zambrano, $14 for Dempster, $6.5 for Byrd, $7 for Marmol, $3.1 for Marshall and still $2 to Silva.

 

OK, thanks.

[UMFan83]

Did we end up deciding that the $5 million we're giving to Pena in January counts on last year's payroll?

[toonsterwu]

Let's see...the Cubs just hired the Padres GM....they're a retooling team that doesn't spend much...Cubs lose their 3B...Padres have a solid everyday 3B entering his prime who could get them a couple of solid prospects...the Cubs have solid prospects...

 

I like the Stewart idea some too, but I'd like to see the Cubs go after Headley. I'd like it ven moreso if they go after one of the big 1B...

 

Headley is still my preferred A option ... but they have only 13.55 million on the books for 2012 as of now, 32.3 million below their 2011 numbers. There's 6 arb 1 cases and 5 arb 2 cases, with Headley as the most expensive. Even if he gets a surprisingly high raise, they are still likely to be below their 2011 payroll starting number when including him. There is Heath Bell out there, but it doesn't seem like they are in a financial bind of some sort.

 

Talent wise, the argument for moving Headley has always been their 3rd base depth. But Forsythe is a fringy bat for 3rd, Darnell might not stick there, Blackwood is a fringe prospect, and Rincon might not stick and is far away. That leaves Gyorko, who looks at least a good season away. Add in that Headley is their best offensive player, a guy who made adjustments to his swing because of his home park, and a guy Hoyer wanted to build around, and I feel like Headley might get quite expensive. Assuming Brett Jackson is untouchable, it wouldn't surprise me if they demanded McNutt and Szczur to make a deal happen here, and considering the market for the postion, I wouldn't blame them. At the very least, I would assume that they would want an upper level arm to headline the deal (their arm depth is more in the lower levels, although Keyvius Sampson looks awfully good).

[Guest]

If Aramis walks, they don't sign Pena they almost have to go hard after Pujols/Fielder.

 

What an interesting off-season it will be.

[ConstableRabbit]

Hands-down favorite player on the Cubs (or when he was on the Cubs as of yesterday).

 

I'd be really sad to see him go.

[Guest]

I will say one thing.

 

If we're going to "throw away" the offseason (and by that I mean if, say, three of the following happen - letting Aramis walk, not signing Prince/Albert, not signing CJ, and/or dumping Z), I want to throw away next year in spectacular fashion to get a top 1 or 2 pick. In other words, I wouldn't want to sign some mediocre guys to short term deals to look somewhat respectable in 2012 if we can't get the top end guys.

 

That doesn't mean I wouldn't want us to make some buy low signings that could pay off long term (like a Sizemore), though. If something like that panned out to the point where we won a bit more, oh, well. Would be worth it.

 

Easier said than done, and I know #1 picks aren't as valuable as in other sports (especially when you're willing to spend a lot in the draft like we will)... but if there's a cant-miss Mark Prior type out there to be drafted in 2013, I wouldn't mind getting him to add to whoever we get with the #6 and the rest of the draft next year.

Edited October 31, 2011 by David

[jersey cubs fan]

I will say one thing.

 

If we're going to "throw away" the offseason (and by that I mean if, say, three of the following happen - letting Aramis walk, not signing Prince/Albert, not signing CJ, and/or dumping Z), I want to throw away next year in spectacular fashion to get a top 1 or 2 pick. In other words, I wouldn't want to sign some mediocre guys to short term deals to look somewhat respectable in 2012 if we can't get the top end guys.

 

I go back and forth on this idea quite a bit. On one hand, if you are going to suck, just go ahead and suck, and let your kids go through their early struggles and adjust. But at the same time, it's a shame to waste your kids' cost effective years on a horrible team and use up their options/arbitration clock.

 

 

I just think throwing away 2012 is a complete non-option. It is completely unnecessary for the longterm future of the team and could do some serious damage to fan interest/patience plus stadium upgrade negotiations.

[Guest]

 

I just think throwing away 2012 is a complete non-option. It is completely unnecessary for the longterm future of the team and could do some serious damage to fan interest/patience plus stadium upgrade negotiations.

 

I agree. I'd only want it to happen if we get shot down by the top tier guys.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

I think A-Ram is definitely gone. I could definitely see the Cubs spending that money on a gamble like Sizemore and a pither like Edwin Jackson/Maholm type. Im not sure the Cubs will be players for CJ Wilson as I think they will make a lot of solid moves grasping at high upside. These are the targets for 3B out of the organization I would like to see. if the Cubs dealt Byrd they could flip some mid prospects and package with a higher prospect for Headley.

 

1. Headley

2. Encarnacion

3. Stewart

4. Baker/Flaherty/DeWitt

 

This does leave the cubs with immense payroll flexibility over the next couple of years. I could be excited for a lineup like this:

 

Jackson

Castro

Headley

Fielder

Soto

Sizemore

Soriano

Kelly Johnson/Aaron Hill/Barney