Constructing the 2012 Cubs

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I'd be pretty happy to bring Nick Markakis on board - I doubt he'd take a ton in terms of prospects to get the deal done. For a corner spot, his offense isn't all that great, but he definitely knows how to get on base and is a good bet for an .800 OPS.

 

I might be underestimating how much it would take to get him though.

 

You are underestimating...but he's a really solid all around player. He's been off in recent years, but that might be part of the hell of being in Baltimore.

[Tyrant]

I realize it's not generally what big budget teams do, but any sense in waiting to bring Brett Jackson up to delay his arbitration clock? I think he's pretty much ready, but it's not unreasonable to give him a few more at bats in the minors.

[Guest]

Like David mentioned, what makes this difficult but fun is that there are so many ways to go about constructing the team. We also can't be sure how our new front office values any player at any level, which means the actual offseason has almost as many possibilities.

 

Here's some of the goals I'd have for approaching the offseason, under the assumption that we'll see a pretty static payroll.

 

- Sign Albert Pujols - Pretty self explanatory. There are no first basemen in this system worth having that weren't drafted in June. Pujols is a hall of fame player coming available when we have the money to pay him.

 

- Free up payroll - This team needs to add star caliber players, and since our farm system is probably not well equipped to trade for one without a significant hit, we'll need money in order to do that. Freeing up money by getting rid of the money owed to Zambrano, Soriano, and/or Dempster would go a long way to turning the team around faster. Players like Marmol and Byrd I'd also make available, but more on a talent for talent basis, with freeing up/offsetting salary as a side effect.

 

- Add a top shelf SP - Wilson is the favored candidate around here, although he's obviously not the only potential target, even in FA. Sabathia could become a FA. King Felix might be on the trading block. The Dodgers might be really poor and not want to pay Kershaw's arb money. There aren't a lot of these guys though(that's why they're top shelf), so the opportunity to get one like Wilson is very appealing.

 

Those 3 are what I would consider to be must have goals for the offseason. They fit the "dual fronts" of giving the team starpower for today and tomorrow, as well as giving some financial flexibility to achieve lesser goals. Getting the remainder of the following goals accomplished would depend on the nature in which the first 3 were accomplished(how much you pay Pujols/Wilson, how much a trade target costs in $/players, how much salary you have to eat for Z/Soriano, etc)

 

- Bring back Ramirez for 2 years, and Wood for 1 year - The 3B market is awful, and while I like Flaherty and Lemahieu, it would be irresponsible to turn over 3B to one or both of them with how little they've shown above AA. As for Wood, he'll want to come back and he's still effective, so it's just a matter of making sure a middle reliever/secondary setup guy isn't inhibiting the team from getting greater gains with that money.

 

- Extend Garza, Castro, and Soto - These guys are (pre) prime players who are very productive. Get Starlin a contract in the Longoria mold, give Garza a 3 year deal with a bunch of options in the Tampa mold, and buy out one or two of Soto's FA years.

 

- Add another good SP - This is likely to come from the trade market. Guys like Danks, Billingsley, Nolasco, Porcello, Liriano, Floyd, etc. Odds are the GMs for those guys will at least listen to offers for them, so find the one that is in a financial bind or underrates their guy the most. Myself I'm partial to Danks. This also pushes Cashner to the 6th starter role, which shields him from a full workload, and offers insurance against the nightmare of stopgap SP we were forced to endure this year.

 

- Get creative with the OF - Right now we have a LH rookie CF/RF who is likely to have some struggles(especially against LHP), and two RH OF who are ok against RHP and kill LHP. Adding the right player or two to optimize this situation should not be a super difficult or expensive proposition, although it is a more urgent proposition if you can shed most of Soriano's salary. Sizemore would make for a nice addition to that bunch, and he's really the most intriguing FA target to me. The trade possibilities are too numerous to mention, but the goal should be to find someone with upside, and that could potentially become a fixture in the OF(even moreso if Byrd/Soriano are dealt). Avoiding FA quick fixes at market value is important here.

 

 

So there you have it, 3 primary steps and 3 secondary steps to the offseason. In a perfect world, Pujols, Wilson, Ramirez, and Sizemore are Cubs for reasonable years/AAV, someone picks up Z's salary or Dempster declines his option, Danks finds his way across town without giving up Brett Jackson, and Garza and Castro's agents are receptive to contract extensions. Then you'd be left with something along the lines of:

 

Castro

Jackson/Byrd

Pujols

Ramirez

Sizemore/Soto

Soto/Soriano

Byrd/(Sizemore or Jackson)

Barney

 

Wilson/Garza/Danks/(Z or Dempster)/Wells

 

Marmol/Marshall/Wood/Shark/Russell/(Guzman or Beliveau)/Cashner

 

Castillo/Baker/(Flaherty or Lemahieu)/Soriano/Colvin

 

That team is probably not going to fit with the payroll restrictions, but it's not too far from it, and would be one of the better teams in the NL with money from Z/Dempster, Byrd, and Marshall potentially freed up to help in the OF for 2013.

[Bote McBoteface]

Has Aramis Ramirez to first base been discussed yet? I don't know how much of a liability he'd be, but if he could handle it then it might make sense. Maybe move Castro to third while we're at it, everybody says that's where he'll end up anyway. Then Barney can move to short. Now we have a hole at 2nd to fill via trade or free agency.

 

Clint Barmes, Jamey Carroll, Mark Ellis, Bill Hall, Aaron Hill, Omar Infante, Kelly Johnson, Jose Lopez, and Brandon Phillips are the current 2nd base Free agents, according to MLBTR. I'd certainly love to have Brandon Phillips just for the fun anti-cardinals quotes.

[Guest]

Has Aramis Ramirez to first base been discussed yet? I don't know how much of a liability he'd be, but if he could handle it then it might make sense. Maybe move Castro to third while we're at it, everybody says that's where he'll end up anyway. Then Barney can move to short. Now we have a hole at 2nd to fill via trade or free agency.

 

Clint Barmes, Jamey Carroll, Mark Ellis, Bill Hall, Aaron Hill, Omar Infante, Kelly Johnson, Jose Lopez, and Brandon Phillips are the current 2nd base Free agents, according to MLBTR. I'd certainly love to have Brandon Phillips just for the fun anti-cardinals quotes.

 

Why would you pay Aramis like a very good hitting 3B (which is how other teams will view him) and then reduce his value by moving him to 1B, all the while reducing Castro's value by moving him to 3B?

[Guancous]

What does fair value for Justin Smoak look like? I'm not talking about robbing the Mariners.

 

What haul would it take for them to accept that Smoak may not be a good fit for the ballpark?

[Bote McBoteface]

Has Aramis Ramirez to first base been discussed yet? I don't know how much of a liability he'd be, but if he could handle it then it might make sense. Maybe move Castro to third while we're at it, everybody says that's where he'll end up anyway. Then Barney can move to short. Now we have a hole at 2nd to fill via trade or free agency.

 

Clint Barmes, Jamey Carroll, Mark Ellis, Bill Hall, Aaron Hill, Omar Infante, Kelly Johnson, Jose Lopez, and Brandon Phillips are the current 2nd base Free agents, according to MLBTR. I'd certainly love to have Brandon Phillips just for the fun anti-cardinals quotes.

 

Why would you pay Aramis like a very good hitting 3B (which is how other teams will view him) and then reduce his value by moving him to 1B, all the while reducing Castro's value by moving him to 3B?

 

Because he's a pretty bad third baseman.

[USSoccer]

TT pretty much laid out the best case scenario for this offseason. Pujols, Wilson, Sizemore and reupping Aramis and Wood would be amazing.

 

I have to think that Ramirez, between his oft stated desire (last 6 weeks of posturing notwithstanding) to finish his career here and the fact that he's taken below market value for the Cubs once before, would be amenable to a team-friendly extension.

 

Maybe that's me being naive, but that's the sense I get from him. The fact that we just assembled the superfriends in the front office can't hurt from the whole "wanting to win" angle.

[ScrubMD]

I want to trade Marmol, assuming we could get a decent prospect for him.

 

I'm intrigued by the idea of Sizemore.

 

No idea what to do with Cashner. I'm very happy people that are actually smarter than me will be making that decision.

 

I'd probably also be for trading Byrd.

 

That's all for now.

[Guest]

Has Aramis Ramirez to first base been discussed yet? I don't know how much of a liability he'd be, but if he could handle it then it might make sense. Maybe move Castro to third while we're at it, everybody says that's where he'll end up anyway. Then Barney can move to short. Now we have a hole at 2nd to fill via trade or free agency.

 

Clint Barmes, Jamey Carroll, Mark Ellis, Bill Hall, Aaron Hill, Omar Infante, Kelly Johnson, Jose Lopez, and Brandon Phillips are the current 2nd base Free agents, according to MLBTR. I'd certainly love to have Brandon Phillips just for the fun anti-cardinals quotes.

 

Why would you pay Aramis like a very good hitting 3B (which is how other teams will view him) and then reduce his value by moving him to 1B, all the while reducing Castro's value by moving him to 3B?

 

Because he's a pretty bad third baseman.

 

 

Then don't re-sign him.

[treebird]

Like David mentioned, what makes this difficult but fun is that there are so many ways to go about constructing the team. We also can't be sure how our new front office values any player at any level, which means the actual offseason has almost as many possibilities.

 

Here's some of the goals I'd have for approaching the offseason, under the assumption that we'll see a pretty static payroll.

 

- Sign Albert Pujols - Pretty self explanatory. There are no first basemen in this system worth having that weren't drafted in June. Pujols is a hall of fame player coming available when we have the money to pay him.

 

- Free up payroll - This team needs to add star caliber players, and since our farm system is probably not well equipped to trade for one without a significant hit, we'll need money in order to do that. Freeing up money by getting rid of the money owed to Zambrano, Soriano, and/or Dempster would go a long way to turning the team around faster. Players like Marmol and Byrd I'd also make available, but more on a talent for talent basis, with freeing up/offsetting salary as a side effect.

 

- Add a top shelf SP - Wilson is the favored candidate around here, although he's obviously not the only potential target, even in FA. Sabathia could become a FA. King Felix might be on the trading block. The Dodgers might be really poor and not want to pay Kershaw's arb money. There aren't a lot of these guys though(that's why they're top shelf), so the opportunity to get one like Wilson is very appealing.

 

Those 3 are what I would consider to be must have goals for the offseason. They fit the "dual fronts" of giving the team starpower for today and tomorrow, as well as giving some financial flexibility to achieve lesser goals. Getting the remainder of the following goals accomplished would depend on the nature in which the first 3 were accomplished(how much you pay Pujols/Wilson, how much a trade target costs in $/players, how much salary you have to eat for Z/Soriano, etc)

 

- Bring back Ramirez for 2 years, and Wood for 1 year - The 3B market is awful, and while I like Flaherty and Lemahieu, it would be irresponsible to turn over 3B to one or both of them with how little they've shown above AA. As for Wood, he'll want to come back and he's still effective, so it's just a matter of making sure a middle reliever/secondary setup guy isn't inhibiting the team from getting greater gains with that money.

 

- Extend Garza, Castro, and Soto - These guys are (pre) prime players who are very productive. Get Starlin a contract in the Longoria mold, give Garza a 3 year deal with a bunch of options in the Tampa mold, and buy out one or two of Soto's FA years.

 

- Add another good SP - This is likely to come from the trade market. Guys like Danks, Billingsley, Nolasco, Porcello, Liriano, Floyd, etc. Odds are the GMs for those guys will at least listen to offers for them, so find the one that is in a financial bind or underrates their guy the most. Myself I'm partial to Danks. This also pushes Cashner to the 6th starter role, which shields him from a full workload, and offers insurance against the nightmare of stopgap SP we were forced to endure this year.

 

- Get creative with the OF - Right now we have a LH rookie CF/RF who is likely to have some struggles(especially against LHP), and two RH OF who are ok against RHP and kill LHP. Adding the right player or two to optimize this situation should not be a super difficult or expensive proposition, although it is a more urgent proposition if you can shed most of Soriano's salary. Sizemore would make for a nice addition to that bunch, and he's really the most intriguing FA target to me. The trade possibilities are too numerous to mention, but the goal should be to find someone with upside, and that could potentially become a fixture in the OF(even moreso if Byrd/Soriano are dealt). Avoiding FA quick fixes at market value is important here.

 

 

So there you have it, 3 primary steps and 3 secondary steps to the offseason. In a perfect world, Pujols, Wilson, Ramirez, and Sizemore are Cubs for reasonable years/AAV, someone picks up Z's salary or Dempster declines his option, Danks finds his way across town without giving up Brett Jackson, and Garza and Castro's agents are receptive to contract extensions. Then you'd be left with something along the lines of:

 

Castro

Jackson/Byrd

Pujols

Ramirez

Sizemore/Soto

Soto/Soriano

Byrd/(Sizemore or Jackson)

Barney

 

Wilson/Garza/Danks/(Z or Dempster)/Wells

 

Marmol/Marshall/Wood/Shark/Russell/(Guzman or Beliveau)/Cashner

 

Castillo/Baker/(Flaherty or Lemahieu)/Soriano/Colvin

 

That team is probably not going to fit with the payroll restrictions, but it's not too far from it, and would be one of the better teams in the NL with money from Z/Dempster, Byrd, and Marshall potentially freed up to help in the OF for 2013.

 

great analysis, but i'd really prefer it if you could remember to include "GO AWAY LAHAIR: go away lahair" as a major offseason goal in all posts like this.

[Guest]

great analysis, but i'd really prefer it if you could remember to include "GO AWAY LAHAIR: go away lahair" as a major offseason goal in all posts like this.

 

I presumed it was implied. Perhaps you could MS Paint me an icon I could throw in my signature, to make sure my disdain for LaHair is appropriately noted in all my posts.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

What does fair value for Justin Smoak look like? I'm not talking about robbing the Mariners.

 

What haul would it take for them to accept that Smoak may not be a good fit for the ballpark?

 

I don't have the answer, but I've thought about Smoak too. That would be a pretty slick move because he's still one hell of a long term talent.

[huff]

hello everyone. wanted to chime in on this. ive been lurking here for years..was a posting member back when tim first started out...sanclementefan hahaha.. heres some thoughts

 

1. i believe pujols re-ups with the cards. i hate it but i just dont see him leaving and i dont think the cards will let him go. He is Iconic in st louis.

 

2, i also believe fielder, although he fits the "age criteria" that theo mentioned, wont be a part of the equation either. just too big a risk with his weight/conditioning. If i were theo i wouldnt tie myself to that move/player to start his era in chicago..seems like a huge commitment.

 

3. CJ Wilson will be a Ranger. He likes Texas, hes a outdoor kindof guy(see his comments about gun laws) combined with the fact that they lost out on retaining Cliff Lee last offseason and they will pony up the $$ for Wilson.

 

If i'm theo i'm thinking i won a world series with doug mienckiwiczalphabet at 1b so a prototypical "power run producer' at first really isnt a priority. One good thing about being a really bad team is there are alot of places that can be improved. We've some really bad contracts but one way to get rid of one or two of them is package them with some assets. We can all agree that next offseasons free agent class is much deeper so heres where i would start:

 

A. Re-sign Ramirez 3/39m---Re-sign Wood 1/2m.--Re-sign Reed johnson 1/1.5m

B. TRADE 1 =talk to the indians about picking up the club options they hold on sizemore(8m)+carmona(7M) and packaging them with hafner(13m). Hafners deal only runs thru 2013 @ 13 per. This opens the door for us to pursue Votto. The deal would be:

Zambrano(18m)+marmol(7)+Colvin+3m for +Carmona(7m)+Hafner(13m)...basically its a money wash and we remove z and get a 1st baseman and potential starter/long reliever..saves us about 2m. Would love for them to include sizemore and us removing the 3M thus making it almost a total wash moneywise.

 

gives cleveland a solid number 2 behind jimenez and a closer locked up for a few more years plus colvin .Not to mention that it saves them 6M+ in 2013. the Indians already have Laporta at 1st. Now granted carmona is not on the rise as he once was but he is the perfect candidate to come to the NL and benefit, plus he is under contract with club options for a couple more years so we arent married to him after 2012. Sizemore has been hurt but is said to be healthy again,,,i dont think the indians want to pay him 8m so they may let him go..if so he has to be a target.

 

C. TRADE 2= M. BYRD, Sczur, j jax, cashner to tampa bay for upton+shields

i hate to give up cashner here but you gotta give something to get something. Upton is a perfect fit for the 'theo player...skilled and young and under control till 2016. plus shields is under control for 3 years. We take on around 7M in this deal in 2012.

 

D. sign Paul Maholm

 

E. sign Matt Capps-2/20

these 5 transactions leave our roster looking like this

 

OF-Soriano, Upton, Sizemore, Bjax, Johnson,campana

SP-Garza, Shields,Maholm, Dempster, Wells,

RP- Capps, Wood, Marshall, russell, samardzija, carmona, carpenter/dolis,

INF- Castro, Barney, Ramirez, hafner, lemahieu, lahair, dewitt

 

all these moves give us flexibility and make us competitive in 2012 i think.

[toonsterwu]

Markakis is probably unavailable, but if he was, Baltimore would likely want a fair amount. He's still generally viewed as a core guy in Baltimore, is signed through 2014 with an option in 2015, and the concerns on his power were somewhat quieted after his solid 2nd half. He might never be as good as once-hoped, particularly after that 2008 6+ WAR season, but he's only going to be in his age 28 season next year.

 

I have a hard time seeing Zduriencik move Smoak unless it's for a gigantic return.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The crazy thing is, I think TT's Master Plan really could fit into the budget if you look at it really optimistically and do some frontloading.

 

Just straight vanilla contracts for 2012, we have $58 million committed. Let's say Dempster walks away from his contract.

 

I think it'd be optimistic to say you can get the non-Garza arbitration eligibles for a total of $8 million. Now we're at $66 million for 11 players.

 

I doubt you can get Ramirez back for less than $12 million, and that's with the discount that comes with a longer-term deal. $78million for 12.

 

You can reasonably hope to get Pujols and a top-flight starting pitcher for about than $35 million next year, thanks to the frontloading of the contract.

 

What's a very optimistic number for Garza for 2012 with a long-term deal buying out his last two arbitration years. $9 million? $122 million for 14.

 

Danks-level next starting pitcher? Gotta be at least $7 million. $129 million for 15.

 

Castro gets a raise while we buy out his arb years. $3 million? $132 million for 16.

 

Fill out the remaining 9 roster spots for $7 million, and you are within spitting distance of the payroll the last two years. And that's before you've saved a dime on Zambrano.

 

Sure, some of these numbers are a smidge optimistic, but that's what this time of year is for.

[Guest]

hello everyone. wanted to chime in on this. ive been lurking here for years..was a posting member back when tim first started out...sanclementefan hahaha.. heres some thoughts.

 

Welcome!

 

I'm not sure that the Indians deal those guys in a cash neutral deal. They'd also be adding future commitments in Marmol's 2013 salary, which is probably prohibitively expensive for a team like the Indians that aren't on the precipice of greatness and have a small payroll.

[Guest]

hello everyone. wanted to chime in on this. ive been lurking here for years..was a posting member back when tim first started out...sanclementefan hahaha.. heres some thoughts

 

 

I thought sanclementefan was Tim's "other" account

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Markakis is probably unavailable, but if he was, Baltimore would likely want a fair amount. He's still generally viewed as a core guy in Baltimore, is signed through 2014 with an option in 2015, and the concerns on his power were somewhat quieted after his solid 2nd half. He might never be as good as once-hoped, particularly after that 2008 6+ WAR season, but he's only going to be in his age 28 season next year.

 

I have a hard time seeing Zduriencik move Smoak unless it's for a gigantic return.

 

The Cubs could deal with a fair amount. That's how trades for good players should work. While he's probably still part of the Baltimore core, their future is still years away and he could bring some nice pieces. I see him as a Pence/Garza type who can play with the big boys but isn't quite top tier right now, and he's got a couple of cost controlled years left. He'd cost a pretty penny, but if they bring in the elite bat before him he'll be worth it. Hell, they should do it anyway.

 

Smoak probably isn't going anywhere, but oh man what a coup that would be...

[huff]

well they are on the hook for hafners 13M in 2013 so they would actually save around 4M. thanks for the welcome!! looking forward to hanging out-

[huff]

hello everyone. wanted to chime in on this. ive been lurking here for years..was a posting member back when tim first started out...sanclementefan hahaha.. heres some thoughts

 

 

I thought sanclementefan was Tim's "other" account

 

hahaha..thats from waaaay back in the day good sir....from the "other" board...which will remain nameless to protect the innocent and moronic

[Guest]

well they are on the hook for hafners 13M in 2013 so they would actually save around 4M. thanks for the welcome!! looking forward to hanging out-

 

 

Looking at Cot's, Hafner's 13M is a team option with a 2.75M buyout, so they're only on the hook for a couple million beyond next year.

[huff]

well they are on the hook for hafners 13M in 2013 so they would actually save around 4M. thanks for the welcome!! looking forward to hanging out-

 

 

Looking at Cot's, Hafner's 13M is a team option with a 2.75M buyout, so they're only on the hook for a couple million beyond next year.

 

youre right TT,,must have read that wrong. on a side note...F the cardinals...helluva game though. Morans

[toonsterwu]

One name that is thought to be available, but hasn't been discussed here before is Carlos Quentin. Third base is what it is - it's a bad market. That said, we probably need another power bat in the lineup, and the White Sox will reportedly listen on Quentin. He's not great in RF, but you could do worse. He'd be in his age 29/30 season in 2012, in his prime.

 

Problem is, I'm just not sure we match-up all that well, assuming Kenny wants, as he said, young MLB-ready talent. That said, in getting front office pieces from Boston and San Diego, we could conceivably work a three-way, so it's not out of the question in regards to going after Quentin.

[bukie]

One name that is thought to be available, but hasn't been discussed here before is Carlos Quentin. Third base is what it is - it's a bad market. That said, we probably need another power bat in the lineup, and the White Sox will reportedly listen on Quentin. He's not great in RF, but you could do worse. He'd be in his age 29/30 season in 2012, in his prime.

 

Problem is, I'm just not sure we match-up all that well, assuming Kenny wants, as he said, young MLB-ready talent. That said, in getting front office pieces from Boston and San Diego, we could conceivably work a three-way, so it's not out of the question in regards to going after Quentin.

Well, he did once trade Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik, maybe he'll trade Carlos Quentin for Tony Campana.