2011 Cubs picks and signings thread

[SouthSideRyan]

You aren't going to find high ceiling guys with a small likelihood of flopping outside of the 1st round.

[Outshined_One]

You aren't going to find high ceiling guys with a small likelihood of flopping outside of the 1st round.

 

Even the ones available in the first round are normally gone in the first five picks.

[videographer]

I am happy to read Tim Wilkens' comments about the talent the Cubs have signed. I cannot recall a Cubs draft with this many high school prospects and its easy to get excited. However, they are 18 and 19 year olds. A lot changes in 4 or 5 years. The rule of thumb for a team's draft is that 5% to 10% of the 50 drafted will make it to MLB. That means this Cubs' draft will yield 2-5 players on average with a possible 7 or 8 for an exceptional year. That is a lot of failure for such bright futures. Yet, survival of the best is what competition is all about.

 

I am making these comments because it is easy to want all of them to succeed and patience is very hard when looking at box scores day-after-day. I find the most important thing about this year's draft is the financial commitment made by the Ricketts to hire more scouts and sign higher ceiling/bigger bust amateur talent - not only in this draft, but also Dominican/Asian/ European amateurs. I cannot remember a time when Cubs' ownership has done so much with amateur talent in one year and I hope it continues for years to come.

 

Now, we wait and see if the Cubs can develop this talent and find some difference makers.

[craig]

The official list from the Cubs is in the attachment.

 

Tim, where did you get the official list? It includes Elias, whose agreement was reported some time ago. And who was listing on BA's list for some time.

 

But now today BA has un-bolded him. I wonder if that's a mistake, or if something is really up and he's unsigned?

[Hrubes20]

The official list from the Cubs is in the attachment.

 

Tim, where did you get the official list? It includes Elias, whose agreement was reported some time ago. And who was listing on BA's list for some time.

 

But now today BA has un-bolded him. I wonder if that's a mistake, or if something is really up and he's unsigned?

 

38th rounder Casey Lucchese was unbolded as well. Wilken himself said that 34 picks were signed, which would have included both Elias and Lucchese. Interesting to follow, although BA has had this happen a few times already. I believe they had DeVoss bolded, unbolded, and then re-bolded a day later.

[Guest]

Sorry I don't follow these threads as day to day as you guys, so I claim partial ignorance. I am just curious as to whether it's a recent trend for teams to sign post-1st round picks so far above slot? I just remember when Shark was signed and how the MLB was pissed that we went so far over slot. I know he was a 4th rounder and we gave him $10 mil, which even this year would be insanely over slot, but I remember the prevailing thought being not to abuse the system by going way overslot to sign your draft picks. Now it seems like teams reguarly ignore the slot system when making picks and signing them.

 

Is this becoming a problem that is going to be addressed at some point, perhaps the next CBA negotiations? I would hate to see this practice stopped now that the Cubs seem to finally be realzing the value of exploiting their resources in the draft.

 

Re: the CBA. Bud wants it addressed but it sounds like it won't happen.

 

John Havok (Lethbridge, AB): Chances of a hard cap slot system being introduced in the next CBA in your opinion and why/why not?

 

Jim Callis: I'm hearing next to zero. MLB wanted it, but it's not going to happen. If MLB got hard slotting, they'd also have to a) give up something worth more than what hard slotting would save; b) and cause more unintended consequences for the draft. I'll be very surprised if the MLBPA ever agrees to a cap of any kind. I think we'll get an earlier signing deadline (July 15?) next year, and maybe lesser free-agent compensation as part of the new CBA, but not hard slotting.

[jersey cubs fan]

Jim Callis: I'm hearing next to zero. MLB wanted it, but it's not going to happen. If MLB got hard slotting, they'd also have to a) give up something worth more than what hard slotting would save; b) and cause more unintended consequences for the draft. I'll be very surprised if the MLBPA ever agrees to a cap of any kind. I think we'll get an earlier signing deadline (July 15?) next year, and maybe lesser free-agent compensation as part of the new CBA, but not hard slotting.

 

Sounds to me like both things are big market team friendly and player friendly, with smaller market teams being the losers.

[Guest]

Small market teams aren't even necessarily losers either, the Royals and Pirates spent huge money this year.

[UMFan83]

Small market teams aren't even necessarily losers either, the Royals and Pirates spent huge money this year.

 

Yeah but there's surely an opportunity cost. If a team like the Pirates spends a ton on the draft, that's less they spend on the team. How have the Rays spent since their rebuilding plan starting churning out winning teams? Just curious because their payroll spiked when they got good (as you'd expect).

[jersey cubs fan]

Small market teams aren't even necessarily losers either, the Royals and Pirates spent huge money this year.

 

If the costs of signing draft picks goes unchecked, it will become harder and harder for small market teams to compete in that department. And if free agent compensation goes down, it will be harder to keep replacing your own guys when they get too expensive.

[SouthSideRyan]

Big market teams don't lose free agents? Draft pick compensation is more helpful to the big markets than the small.

[CubColtPacer]

Big market teams don't lose free agents? Draft pick compensation is more helpful to the big markets than the small.

 

I thought that too, but the current draft doesn't support that. 17 of the 27 compensatory picks went to teams that were in the bottom 10 of payroll in 2010. That was mostly 3 teams (Tampa Bay, Toronto, and San Diego) who combined for 14 of those. The big gap was in the middle. 5 went to the top 5 payroll teams, 5 went to the next 15, and then 17 to the last 10. I don't know if that's supported by previous years though.

[SouthSideRyan]

Maybe I'll take a longer look at it after work, but my recollection was that the big market teams benefitted more because they had the bigger name free agents. (Some possibly coming over via trade from those small market teams. On top of it, if you have the #1 draft pick in a given year, it's unlikely you've got any A or B free agents to gain compensation from. So now you have the #1 pick in the draft, and rather than your 2nd round pick being #31 overall, your 2nd round pick is #61.

[seattlecub]

Didn't see this already. Callis says in the BA Draft Blog that Cubs spent fourth most in draft ($11,954,550 — heartening) behind Pirates, Nats and Royals. Those four along with D'Backs spent more than previous draft record set last year by Nats.

[jersey cubs fan]

Big market teams don't lose free agents? Draft pick compensation is more helpful to the big markets than the small.

 

The general flow of free agents is away from smaller teams and toward bigger teams, making the net effect bigger on smaller teams. Additionally, there aren't a lot of ways for a smaller market team to win. Bigger teams have all sorts of flexibility. Smaller teams, who actually try, would be more dependant on that flow back of comp picks.

[Guest]

The official list from the Cubs is in the attachment.

 

Tim, where did you get the official list? It includes Elias, whose agreement was reported some time ago. And who was listing on BA's list for some time.

 

But now today BA has un-bolded him. I wonder if that's a mistake, or if something is really up and he's unsigned?

I'm on the press list for the Cubs. It came directly from them.

[SouthSideRyan]

Big market teams don't lose free agents? Draft pick compensation is more helpful to the big markets than the small.

 

The general flow of free agents is away from smaller teams and toward bigger teams, making the net effect bigger on smaller teams. Additionally, there aren't a lot of ways for a smaller market team to win. Bigger teams have all sorts of flexibility. Smaller teams, who actually try, would be more dependant on that flow back of comp picks.

 

2010 Supplemental picks

 

Kaleb Cowart (Angels-1) - Pick from Mariners as compensation for Free Agent Chone Figgins

Michael Foltynewicz (Astros-1) - Pick from Tigers as compensation for Free Agent Jose Valverde

Kolbrin Vitek (Red Sox-1) - Pick from Braves as compensation for Free Agent Billy Wagner

Cameron Bedrosian (Angels-1) - Pick from Red Sox as compensation for Free Agent John Lackey

Michael Kvasnicka (Astros-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Jose Valverde

Aaron Sanchez (Blue Jays-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Marco Scutaro

Matt Lipka (Braves-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Mike Gonzalez

Bryce Brentz (Red Sox-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Billy Wagner

Taylor Lindsey (Angels-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Chone Figgins

Anthony Ranaudo (Red Sox-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Jason Bay

Ryan Bolden (Angels-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent John Lackey

Asher Wojciechowski (Blue Jays-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Rod Barajas

Drew Vettleson (Rays-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Gregg Zaun

Taijuan Walker (Mariners-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Adrian Beltre

Nick Castellanos (Tigers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Brandon Lyon

Luke Jackson (Rangers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Ivan Rodriguez

Seth Blair (Cardinals-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Mark DeRosa

Peter Tago (Rockies-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Jason Marquis

Chance Ruffin (Tigers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Fernando Rodney

Michael Olt (Rangers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Marlon Byrd

Tyrell Jenkins (Cardinals-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Joel Pineiro

Todd Cunningham (Braves-2) - Pick from Orioles as compensation for Free Agent Mike Gonzalez

Brandon Workman (Red Sox-2) - Pick from Mets as compensation for Free Agent Jason Bay

Justin Nicolino (Blue Jays-2) - Pick from Red Sox as compensation for Free Agent Marco Scutaro

 

 

2009

 

A.J. Pollock (Diamondbacks-1) - Pick from Dodgers as compensation for Free Agent Orlando Hudson

Randal Grichuk (Angels-1) - Pick from Mets as compensation for Free Agent Francisco Rodriguez

Mike Trout (Angels-1) - Pick from Yankees as compensation for Free Agent Mark Teixeira

Nick Franklin (Mariners-1) - Pick from Phillies as compensation for Free Agent Raul Ibanez

Tim Wheeler (Rockies-1) - Pick from Angels as compensation for Free Agent Brian Fuentes

Steven Baron (Mariners-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Raul Ibanez

Rex Brothers (Rockies-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Brian Fuentes

Matthew Davidson (Diamondbacks-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Orlando Hudson

Aaron Miller (Dodgers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Derek Lowe

James Paxton (Blue Jays-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent A.J. Burnett

Josh Phegley (White Sox-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Orlando Cabrera

Kentrail Davis (Brewers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent CC Sabathia

Tyler Skaggs (Angels-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Mark Teixeira

Chris Owings (Diamondbacks-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Juan Cruz

Garrett Richards (Angels-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Francisco Rodriguez

Bradley Boxberger (Reds-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Jeremy Affeldt

Tanner Scheppers (Rangers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Milton Bradley

Michael Belfiore (Diamondbacks-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Brandon Lyon

Matthew Bashore (Twins-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Dennys Reyes

Kyle Heckathorn (Brewers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Brian Shouse

Tyler Kehrer (Angels-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Jon Garland

Blake Smith (Dodgers-2) - Pick from Braves as compensation for Free Agent Derek Lowe

Eric Smith (Diamondbacks-2) - Pick from Royals as compensation for Free Agent Juan Cruz

Trayce Thompson (White Sox-2) - Pick from Athletics as compensation for Free Agent Orlando Cabrera

Max Walla (Brewers-2) - Pick from NYA as compensation for Free Agent CC Sabathia

Robbie Shields (Mets-3) - Pick from NYA as compensation for Free Agent A.J. Burnett

Jake Marisnick (Blue Jays-3) - Pick from NYA as compensation for Free Agent A.J. Burnett

 

2008

 

Ike Davis (Mets-1) - Pick from Braves as compensation for Free Agent Tom Glavine

Carlos Gutierrez (Twins-1) - Pick from Angels as compensation for Free Agent Torii Hunter

Shooter Hunt (Twins-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Torii Hunter

Jake Odorizzi (Brewers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Francisco Cordero

Zach Collier (Phillies-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Aaron Rowand

Evan Frederickson (Brewers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Scott Linebrink

Conor Gillaspie (Giants-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Pedro Feliz

Jordan Lyles (Astros-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Trever Miller

Lance Lynn (Cardinals-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Troy Percival

Brett DeVall (Braves-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Ron Mahay

Ryan Flaherty (Cubs-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Jason Kendall

Wade Miley (Diamondbacks-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Livan Hernandez

Jeremy Bleich (Yankees-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Luis Vizcaino

Bryan Price (Red Sox-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Eric Gagne

Logan Forsythe (Padres-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Doug Brocail

Anthony Gose (Phillies-2) - Pick from Giants as compensation for Free Agent Aaron Rowand

 

2007

 

Kevin Ahrens (Blue Jays-1) - Pick from Rangers as compensation for Free Agent Frank Catalanotto

Blake Beavan (Rangers-1) - Pick from Astros as compensation for Free Agent Carlos Lee

Chris Withrow (Dodgers-1) - Pick from Red Sox as compensation for Free Agent Julio Lugo

Tim Alderson (Giants-1) - Pick from Dodgers as compensation for Free Agent Jason Schmidt

Michael Main (Rangers-1) - Pick from Angels as compensation for Free Agent Gary Matthews

Wendell Fairley (Giants-1) - Pick from Mets as compensation for Free Agent Moises Alou

Josh Smoker (Nationals-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Alfonso Soriano

Nick Noonan (Giants-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Moises Alou

Jon Gilmore (Braves-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Danys Baez

Todd Frazier (Reds-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Rich Aurilia

Julio Borbon (Rangers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Carlos Lee

Clayton Mortensen (Cardinals-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Jeff Suppan

Travis d'Arnaud (Phillies-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent David Dellucci

Brett Cecil (Blue Jays-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Justin Speier

James Adkins (Dodgers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Julio Lugo

Kellen Kulbacki (Padres-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Woody Williams

Sean Doolittle (Athletics-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Barry Zito

Eddie Kunz (Mets-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Roberto Hernandez

Jackson Williams (Giants-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Jason Schmidt

Neil Ramirez (Rangers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Gary Matthews

Justin Jackson (Blue Jays-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Frank Catalanotto

Drew Cumberland (Padres-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Dave Roberts

Nathan Vineyard (Mets-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Chad Bradford

Josh Donaldson (Cubs-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Juan Pierre

Michael Burgess (Nationals-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Jose Guillen

Wes Roemer (Diamondbacks-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Craig Counsell

Charlie Culberson (Giants-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Mike Stanton

Matt Mangini (Mariners-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Gil Meche

Kyle Lotzkar (Reds-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Scott Schoeneweis

Tommy Hunter (Rangers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Mark DeRosa

Nick Hagadone (Red Sox-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Alex Gonzalez

Trystan Magnuson (Blue Jays-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Ted Lilly

Mitch Canham (Padres-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Chan Ho Park

Jon Bachanov (Angels-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Adam Kennedy

Corey Brown (Athletics-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Frank Thomas

Brandon Hamilton (Tigers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Jamie Walker

Ed Easley (Diamondbacks-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Miguel Batista

Ryan Dent (Red Sox-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Keith Foulke

Cory Luebke (Padres-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Alan Embree

Danny Payne (Padres-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Ryan Klesko

Jordan Zimmermann (Nationals-2) - Pick from Cubs as compensation for Free Agent Alfonso Soriano

Josh Fields (Braves-2) - Pick from Orioles as compensation for Free Agent Danys Baez

David Kopp (Cardinals-2) - Pick from Brewers as compensation for Free Agent Jeff Suppan

Grant Desme (Athletics-2) - Pick from Giants as compensation for Free Agent Barry Zito

Scott Moviel (Mets-2) - Pick from Indians as compensation for Free Agent Roberto Hernandez

Eric Sogard (Padres-2) - Pick from Astros as compensation for Free Agent Woody Williams

Eric Eiland (Blue Jays-2) - Pick from Angels as compensation for Free Agent Justin Speier

Eric Niesen (Mets-3) - Pick from Orioles as compensation for Free Agent Chad Bradford

Scott Carroll (Reds-3) - Pick from Giants as compensation for Free Agent Rich Aurilia

Brandon Workman (Phillies-3) - Pick from Indians as compensation for Free Agent David Dellucci

Edited August 18, 2011 by SouthSideRyan

[SouthSideRyan]

Eyeballing it, I don't see an advantage to big or small market teams. The system certainly needs to be overhauled in some fashion when Rafael Soriano is worth the same compensation as Cliff Lee.

[CubColtPacer]

Eyeballing it, I don't see an advantage to big or small market teams. The system certainly needs to be overhauled in some fashion when Rafael Soriano is worth the same compensation as Cliff Lee.

 

Maybe do something where compensation is at least partially based on contract value? That separates out your superstars from everybody else. It's probably the most objective way of determining market value (although not perfect). It's a fair system for small market teams because it rewards them most for the players they have the toughest time keeping. It helps players out because declining players won't have trouble finding jobs just because their team offered them arbitration. And if you separate out the picks over several rounds, there isn't such a huge gulf between picks for any team.

[Shilzzz]

Nick Castellanos (Tigers-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Brandon Lyon

 

boy, i'd take that trade 8 days a week.

[TruffleShuffle]

i think you're seeing the small market teams be smarter about offering arbitration to pick up supplemental picks, hanging onto those types of players and offering them arby rather than trading them for marginal prospects at the deadline. and they're also not signing as many average veterans (losing draft picks and wasting money in the process). it's pretty clear from what the devil rays, royals, pirates and nats have been doing that a number of those small market organizations are placing a lot more resources in the young player procurement and development area, which of course is the right way to go for them.

[SouthSideRyan]

Imagine if the Pirates and Royals didn't essentially get skipped in the 2nd round this year as punishment for not having good enough free agents on their team.

[SouthSideRyan]

Chad Qualls had an ERA above 7 last year and netted the Rays a supplemental pick.

 

Brad Hawpe was released by the Rockies with a month left in the season. The Rays picked him up, paid him ~75K for 46 replacement level PAs and netted a supplemental pick.

[TruffleShuffle]

Chad Qualls had an ERA above 7 last year and netted the Rays a supplemental pick.

 

Brad Hawpe was released by the Rockies with a month left in the season. The Rays picked him up, paid him ~75K for 46 replacement level PAs and netted a supplemental pick.

 

lol didn't know the brad hawpe thing... there are definitely some problems with the system that need to be (and hopefully will be) addressed. it wouldn't be surprised to see these things continue, though, because the draft and arbitration-eligibleness tend to rank pretty low on the list of concerns.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Ryan Flaherty (Cubs-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Jason Kendall

 

I definitely like this one.

 

Josh Donaldson (Cubs-1s) - Supplemental Pick for loss of Free Agent Juan Pierre

 

This one 2, considering Donaldson(along with Murton whose in Japan and Gallagher and E Patt, both of whom I've completely lost track of) netted us Rich Harden, although harden didn't quite work out as well as we would have liked.