By all means Mr. Rosenthal, lets give Hendry an extension.

[dew1679666265]

Hendry also traded a much better option as the 6th starter in Tom Gorzellany away to save cash. The Cubs were hurt by bad luck in a lot of ways, but they certainly made several decisions to made the starting pitching thin as well.

 

Was it to save cash or to get a pretty solid deal in return for a pretty average pitcher? Gorz's a nice pitcher and I was happy when he was here, but he's not so good that you pass up a deal where you get three intriguing prospects - especially when you consider that, at the time, we had Silva still around and he was similar to Gorz last year.

[Guest]

When Wainwright went down in ST, McClellan was St. Louis' 6th SP option. At that time, Coleman was roughly the 9th option, maybe 10th. The team had Silva throw a fit, Looper and Wellemeyer quit, and Wells and Cashner hit the DL in the span of a week.

And Jay Jackson was injured in ST and then sucked.

 

McNutt got injured early when he might have been an option around now had he been healthy and productive all year.

[Banghart]

Hendry also traded a much better option as the 6th starter in Tom Gorzellany away to save cash. The Cubs were hurt by bad luck in a lot of ways, but they certainly made several decisions to made the starting pitching thin as well.

 

Was it to save cash or to get a pretty solid deal in return for a pretty average pitcher? Gorz's a nice pitcher and I was happy when he was here, but he's not so good that you pass up a deal where you get three intriguing prospects - especially when you consider that, at the time, we had Silva still around and he was similar to Gorz last year.

Really, the reason to make a move with Gorzellany was because we had Silva around. A guy who at the time was pouting about having to earn a spot in the rotation after pitching like Carlos Silva for the whole second half of 2010.

 

The players we got for Gorzelanny were AJ Morris, Graham Hicks, and Michael Burgess. They are 24, 21, and 22 respectively. Someone with better knowledge of the farm system can tell us if they are anything intriguing, but looking at the numbers and levels that they are at it would appear that Gorzelanny's 2.1 million price tag is the bigger reason he isn't here.

[dew1679666265]

Gorz hasn't been stellar, and is hurt now as well. However, we have been getting terrible production from Coleman, Davis, and Lopez. Certainly Gorzellany would not have meant this team would be in the playoff picture, but it is an example of how Jim Hendry made himself thin at the positon with a guy that would have been a useful swing guy or someone to stash in AAA.

 

As has been mentioned, Gorz was only 1 of 4 different options we had after the starting 5 before you ever got to the Coleman/Lopez/Davis trio. At the time of the Gorz trade, Silva, Looper and Wellemeyer were still in the organization and all had similar career numbers to Gorz:

 

ERA/FIP/xFIP

 

Gorz: career - 4.64/4.60/4.70

2010 - 4.09/3.42/4.31

 

Silva: career - 4.68/4.49/4.41

2010 - 4.22/3.75/3.75

 

Looper: career - 4.15/4.48/4.36

2009 - 5.22/5.74/4.80

 

Wellemeyer: career - 4.83/5.03/4.88

was terrible in 58 innings in 2010

 

Gorz was the best option we had at the time, but he wasn't a significantly better option than any of the other three. When you then consider that we got three interesting prospects for Gorz, it's hard to say Hendry got rid of the only depth we had. Silva refusing a AAA assignment and Looper and Welly retiring was what killed our depth - not trading Gorz.

[CubColtPacer]

Hendry also traded a much better option as the 6th starter in Tom Gorzellany away to save cash. The Cubs were hurt by bad luck in a lot of ways, but they certainly made several decisions to made the starting pitching thin as well.

 

Was it to save cash or to get a pretty solid deal in return for a pretty average pitcher? Gorz's a nice pitcher and I was happy when he was here, but he's not so good that you pass up a deal where you get three intriguing prospects - especially when you consider that, at the time, we had Silva still around and he was similar to Gorz last year.

 

I thought the Gorz deal was because there wasn't room in the rotation and the Cubs have said several times that he didn't transition well to the bullpen (which is part of the reason why Z was moved there last year). Gorz was also out of options so putting him in AAA was not an option.

[Banghart]

I don't see how Looper and Wellemeyer were really considered that viable as options. Looper hadn't pitched since 2009, and was a long shot to be anything close to what he was. What the Cubs saw made it appear unlikely that he was going to be good, and Looper choose to retire instead of pitching in AAA. Wellemeyer pitched 181 innings the past two years with a 5.86 ERA. Silva also was known for a poor attitude, and the situation with him was entirely foreseeable.

 

I do recall what CubColt was saying about being out of options and not believing he could perform well in the bullpen. However, I don't think it was entirely unforeseable these problems with the pitching staff if the Cubs were couting on Looper, Wellemeyer and Silva as depth.

[dew1679666265]

Really, the reason to make a move with Gorzellany was because we had Silva around. A guy who at the time was pouting about having to earn a spot in the rotation after pitching like Carlos Silva for the whole second half of 2010.

 

Silva wasn't pouting at the time. He started pouting when it became clear that Cashner was going to win the fifth starter's job, but that was much later than the Gorz trade. Lots of people at the time, I believe, were panicking that we'd keep Silva in the rotation and force Cash into the pen again, not whether Silva would be on the team or not.

 

And Silva barely pitched in the second half because of the heart condition. His July ERA was really high (6.86), but his FIP and xFIP were fine: 3.89/3.81. His peripherals were up and he was walking more, but his BABIP was sky high (.413) in July.

 

The players we got for Gorzelanny were AJ Morris, Graham Hicks, and Michael Burgess. They are 24, 21, and 22 respectively. Someone with better knowledge of the farm system can tell us if they are anything intriguing, but looking at the numbers and levels that they are at it would appear that Gorzelanny's 2.1 million price tag is the bigger reason he isn't here.

 

The minor league gurus can comment on the prospects we got back better than I could, but reiterating what I recall them saying, Burgess was a once really good prospect with some power potential and still some intrigue and I believe Morris had some intrigue for them as well. Hicks, I think, was just a bonus toss-in.

[dew1679666265]

I thought the Gorz deal was because there wasn't room in the rotation and the Cubs have said several times that he didn't transition well to the bullpen (which is part of the reason why Z was moved there last year). Gorz was also out of options so putting him in AAA was not an option.

 

That was the incentive for shopping him. It's possible Hendry would have given him away for nothing, but he got an interesting deal and took it. I remember what you said as the reason for shopping him, but I don't recall it being a trade him at all cost thing - or at least not publically that.

[dew1679666265]

I don't see how Looper and Wellemeyer were really considered that viable as options. Looper hadn't pitched since 2009, and was a long shot to be anything close to what he was. What the Cubs saw made it appear unlikely that he was going to be good, and Looper choose to retire instead of pitching in AAA. Wellemeyer pitched 181 innings the past two years with a 5.86 ERA. Silva also was known for a poor attitude, and the situation with him was entirely foreseeable.

 

I do recall what CubColt was saying about being out of options and not believing he could perform well in the bullpen. However, I don't think it was entirely unforeseable these problems with the pitching staff if the Cubs were couting on Looper, Wellemeyer and Silva as depth.

 

Looper and Welly struggling recently are reasons why they were the 7th and 8th pitchers in the depth chart at best. And they may have been lower than that internally at the start of the year before McNutt got hurt and Jay Jackson imploded. We've had a huge number of pitchers - both young and old - drop off the depth chart in a short period of time.

 

And remember, Gorz wasn't a sure thing. He was a pretty big question mark before coming to the Cubs and hadn't had a great deal of success. If he continued his recent success then he was a better option than all of our other guys, but that wasn't a sure thing.

[Banghart]

I guess that really gets us to the point of this discussion. The Cubs were hit by some bad luck with injuries to Cashner and Wells early in the season, but there were some poor choices for this season that magnified that bad luck. Looper and Wellemeyer retiring were very predictable occurences and there were signs about Silva even prior to trading Gorzelanny (comments to the effect of the fact that he wasn't a kid or rookie so he shouldn't have to compete for a rotation spot were made at the Cubs Convention). The only point I was trying to make was that it would have been nice to have Gorzelanny as a backup option, and that this team might have a few more wins this year as a result. Given the other injuries and guys slumping were going to make this a lost season no matter what given the starting talent level of this team.

[dew1679666265]

I guess that really gets us to the point of this discussion. The Cubs were hit by some bad luck with injuries to Cashner and Wells early in the season, but there were some poor choices for this season that magnified that bad luck. Looper and Wellemeyer retiring were very predictable occurences and there were signs about Silva even prior to trading Gorzelanny (comments to the effect of the fact that he wasn't a kid or rookie so he shouldn't have to compete for a rotation spot were made at the Cubs Convention). The only point I was trying to make was that it would have been nice to have Gorzelanny as a backup option, and that this team might have a few more wins this year as a result. Given the other injuries and guys slumping were going to make this a lost season no matter what given the starting talent level of this team.

 

Much like the overall injuries to the team, some should have been expected, sure. But not all of them all at the same time. And that's my view of the pitching depth. The chances of Wells, Cashner and McNutt all getting hurt, Jay Jackson struggling a ton, Looper and Welly retiring and Silva forcing his way out were pretty unlikely to all happen. Chances were some of the guys would have stayed healthy, one of the two pitchers wouldn't have retired, Jackson would have gone back to pitching like he's capable or Silva would have taken the AAA demotion gracefully.

 

It took all of that happening for the Gorz trade to look really bad.

[davearm2]

I don't mind that the Cubs traded away Gorzelanny, but let's be honest here: the guy was a better rotation-depth option than Looper, Wellemeyer, and Silva. Those latter three are on par with the junk we've thrown out there instead -- Coleman, Davis, etc. Gorzelanny is a cut above all of them.

[dew1679666265]

I don't mind that the Cubs traded away Gorzelanny, but let's be honest here: the guy was a better rotation-depth option than Looper, Wellemeyer, and Silva. Those latter three are on par with the junk we've thrown out there instead -- Coleman, Davis, etc. Gorzelanny is a cut above all of them.

 

I've never argued that Gorz isn't a better option than the rest of the guys, but that the other guys (especially Silva) are better options than Coleman/Lopez/Davis and may not necessarily be significantly worse options than Gorz, especially since we got pretty good value for Gorz.

 

If you want to go by ERA, Gorz is just one season removed from a 5.55 ERA. He had a horrid FIP and xFIP in 2008, they improved greatly in 2009 and regressed some in 2010. He's regressed back to 2008 level in FIP this year and his ERA has regressed as well, though his xFIP is better than 2010. Is Gorz a better option than Silva/Looper/Welly? Of course, but he's not a sure thing to post significantly better numbers than those three (again, especially Silva) and if you can get 3 prospects you like for him, you pull the trigger.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't see how Looper and Wellemeyer were really considered that viable as options. Looper hadn't pitched since 2009, and was a long shot to be anything close to what he was. What the Cubs saw made it appear unlikely that he was going to be good, and Looper choose to retire instead of pitching in AAA. Wellemeyer pitched 181 innings the past two years with a 5.86 ERA. Silva also was known for a poor attitude, and the situation with him was entirely foreseeable.

 

I do recall what CubColt was saying about being out of options and not believing he could perform well in the bullpen. However, I don't think it was entirely unforeseable these problems with the pitching staff if the Cubs were couting on Looper, Wellemeyer and Silva as depth.

 

Looper and Welly struggling recently are reasons why they were the 7th and 8th pitchers in the depth chart at best. And they may have been lower than that internally at the start of the year before McNutt got hurt and Jay Jackson imploded. We've had a huge number of pitchers - both young and old - drop off the depth chart in a short period of time.

 

And remember, Gorz wasn't a sure thing. He was a pretty big question mark before coming to the Cubs and hadn't had a great deal of success. If he continued his recent success then he was a better option than all of our other guys, but that wasn't a sure thing.

 

Gorz was a very solid backup option in the rotation. No 6th starter is a sure thing, but he was as close as it gets. Crappy old guys just testing the waters of coming back into the game of baseball aren't real options. And Jay Jackson's implosion began when they started making him into a reliever.

 

 

It wasn't luck that left the Cubs without a viable 6th starter, it was poor planning.

[Guest]

Poor planning, an overconfidence in the results Coleman had last season and bad luck with McNutt getting hurt early and the timing of requiring the 6th starter. Everything else I agree with.

[dew1679666265]

Gorz was a very solid backup option in the rotation. No 6th starter is a sure thing, but he was as close as it gets. Crappy old guys just testing the waters of coming back into the game of baseball aren't real options. And Jay Jackson's implosion began when they started making him into a reliever.

 

 

It wasn't luck that left the Cubs without a viable 6th starter, it was poor planning.

 

You're ignoring McNutt getting hurt multiple times in two months and Silva, who was better than Gorz in 2010, quitting well after the trade was made. So even if you completely discount Looper, Wellemeyer and Jay Jackson, the Coleman/Davis/Lopez trio was our 9th best option even after the Gorz trade.

 

There are very few teams out there that are 9-10 quality starting pitchers deep. For the record, I wouldn't have been opposed to keeping Gorz around if that's what they had decided to do. However, it wasn't poor planning to trade an average starter for three prospects when you had a veteran who was nearly as good an option and your best pitching prospect ready for the majors.

[dew1679666265]

Poor planning, an overconfidence in the results Coleman had last season and bad luck with McNutt getting hurt early and the timing of requiring the 6th starter. Everything else I agree with.

 

I do think they overestimated what Coleman could do and that probably made them more comfortable with trading Gorz. He probably shouldn't have been, but he may have been the 7th option (behind Silva, ahead of McNutt) before Silva threw his fit.

 

They were also hampered more than should have been expected when 2/5 of the starting rotation went down in their first start of the year. Even if you expected both to get hurt, you couldn't have predicted both would go down right at the start of the year and both for extended periods.

[Guest]

Poor planning, an overconfidence in the results Coleman had last season and bad luck with McNutt getting hurt early and the timing of requiring the 6th starter. Everything else I agree with.

 

I do think they overestimated what Coleman could do and that probably made them more comfortable with trading Gorz. He probably shouldn't have been, but he may have been the 7th option (behind Silva, ahead of McNutt) before Silva threw his fit.

 

They were also hampered more than should have been expected when 2/5 of the starting rotation went down in their first start of the year. Even if you expected both to get hurt, you couldn't have predicted both would go down right at the start of the year and both for extended periods.

Right - I don't think the Cubs expected McNutt to be ready as depth to begin the year, but thought he'd be ready around now if needed.

[jersey cubs fan]

Gorz was a very solid backup option in the rotation. No 6th starter is a sure thing, but he was as close as it gets. Crappy old guys just testing the waters of coming back into the game of baseball aren't real options. And Jay Jackson's implosion began when they started making him into a reliever.

 

 

It wasn't luck that left the Cubs without a viable 6th starter, it was poor planning.

 

You're ignoring McNutt getting hurt multiple times in two months and Silva, who was better than Gorz in 2010, quitting well after the trade was made. .

 

Silva flipped out when asked to go to the minor leagues. Every major league pitcher is going to flip out when asked to go to the minors. Then the Cubs released him. He didn't quit. They knew, or at least if their scouts did any homework on the guy they knew, that Silva would not take kindly to a demotion to the minors. If he was their planned 6th guy, they should have kept him.

[CubColtPacer]

Gorz was a very solid backup option in the rotation. No 6th starter is a sure thing, but he was as close as it gets. Crappy old guys just testing the waters of coming back into the game of baseball aren't real options. And Jay Jackson's implosion began when they started making him into a reliever.

 

 

It wasn't luck that left the Cubs without a viable 6th starter, it was poor planning.

 

You're ignoring McNutt getting hurt multiple times in two months and Silva, who was better than Gorz in 2010, quitting well after the trade was made. .

 

Silva flipped out when asked to go to the minor leagues. Every major league pitcher is going to flip out when asked to go to the minors. Then the Cubs released him. He didn't quit. They knew, or at least if their scouts did any homework on the guy they knew, that Silva would not take kindly to a demotion to the minors. If he was their planned 6th guy, they should have kept him.

 

That was probably the only real mistake in this pitching depth question. The Cubs by the end of ST knew that Wellemeyer was hurt and Jackson was hurt. Looper was likely to retire if he didn't get a major league job. They should have kept Silva around. I don't think it's normal behavior for a pitcher to refuse a trip to the minor leagues only to sign a minor league deal 10 days later with another team, but they should have known that Silva might not react normally.

[dew1679666265]

Silva flipped out when asked to go to the minor leagues. Every major league pitcher is going to flip out when asked to go to the minors. Then the Cubs released him. He didn't quit. They knew, or at least if their scouts did any homework on the guy they knew, that Silva would not take kindly to a demotion to the minors. If he was their planned 6th guy, they should have kept him.

 

You're right, he didn't quit but he asked to be released. They could have kept him, but given Silva's history as a clubhouse issue it probably wouldn't have been a good idea. They probably should have just stuck him in the bullpen and left Mateo in AAA to start the year as opposed to trying to get Silva to go to the minors in the first place.

 

That said, releasing Silva wouldn't have been a problem - and trading Gorz, likewise - if both Wells and Cashner hadn't gotten hurt during their first start of the year and missed the first two moths of the season. Add to that, McNutt got hurt 4 days after Wells and Cashner did and that left us with only the Coleman/Lopez/Davis trio. If just one of those three pitchers (Wells, Cashner, McNutt) had been injured at the start of the year and the other two got hurt later on, the rotation would have been fine. If only two of those three had gotten hurt all at the start of the year even, we'd have been ok. Instead all three went down at the same time and we had two rotation black holes instead of none or one.

 

Injuries should be expected, but not to the magnitude we were hit with them all at once. If we don't get an abnormal amount of injuries all at once, nobody is decrying the trading of Gorz right now.

[SouthSideRyan]

Silva in the pen would've been a 300 pound cancerous headache.

[dew1679666265]

Right - I don't think the Cubs expected McNutt to be ready as depth to begin the year, but thought he'd be ready around now if needed.

 

I actually think there's a decent chance McNutt would have been one of the injury replacement pitchers had he not gotten hurt 4 days after Wells and Cashner. But I agree the ideal plan was probably for McNutt to be ready around midseason or a little before to hit the majors if necessary.

[dew1679666265]

Silva in the pen would've been a 300 pound cancerous headache.

 

He might've been happy enough. As it turned out, though, it would have been Silva in the rotation from the second week of the season on and he barely would have seen action in the pen.

[jersey cubs fan]

That was probably the only real mistake in this pitching depth question.

So you are ignoring trading Gorz?