College Basketball 2011-2012

[SouthSideRyan]

Indiana only getting 4 points against Kentucky tomorrow? Pomeroy has Kentucky winning by 6? Now, don't get me wrong. I think IU finishes in the top half of the B1G this year. They're much improved and playing at home in the Hall of Calls. That being said, doesn't Kentucky beat them by double digits tomorrow?

 

Well that sounds outrageous.

 

The line? It started at +3.5 and is at +4.5 now a couple hours later.

 

And [expletive] bodog still hasn't posted it.

[CubColtPacer]

Indiana only getting 4 points against Kentucky tomorrow? Pomeroy has Kentucky winning by 6? Now, don't get me wrong. I think IU finishes in the top half of the B1G this year. They're much improved and playing at home in the Hall of Calls. That being said, doesn't Kentucky beat them by double digits tomorrow?

 

And on the roundtable college basketball article this week on ESPN, 3 different people picked IU over Kentucky as their upset. I have been surprised with how close everybody thinks it's going to be. I guess it must be because Kentucky hasn't had a true road game yet and people think the crowd will really shake them.

 

I'm not very up on Kentucky, but isn't the key to beating them forcing them to shoot from outside and making your own outside shots? Indiana's more of a drive and score type of team and I don't know if that will work against Kentucky's shotblockers, and on defense Indiana doesn't have the big men to really guard Kentucky or much experience playing zone. Indiana will force a decent amount of turnovers though as they get lots of deflections.

[Smack]

Indiana only getting 4 points against Kentucky tomorrow? Pomeroy has Kentucky winning by 6? Now, don't get me wrong. I think IU finishes in the top half of the B1G this year. They're much improved and playing at home in the Hall of Calls. That being said, doesn't Kentucky beat them by double digits tomorrow?

 

And on the roundtable college basketball article this week on ESPN, 3 different people picked IU over Kentucky as their upset. I have been surprised with how close everybody thinks it's going to be. I guess it must be because Kentucky hasn't had a true road game yet and people think the crowd will really shake them.

 

I'm not very up on Kentucky, but isn't the key to beating them forcing them to shoot from outside and making your own outside shots? Indiana's more of a drive and score type of team and I don't know if that will work against Kentucky's shotblockers, and on defense Indiana doesn't have the big men to really guard Kentucky or much experience playing zone. Indiana will force a decent amount of turnovers though as they get lots of deflections.

 

I'm just picturing a physical manhandling. Kentucky players jumping out of the gym blocking shots. Poor Jordy Hulls running for the Shire.

[Exile on Waveland]

Indiana only getting 4 points against Kentucky tomorrow? Pomeroy has Kentucky winning by 6? Now, don't get me wrong. I think IU finishes in the top half of the B1G this year. They're much improved and playing at home in the Hall of Calls. That being said, doesn't Kentucky beat them by double digits tomorrow?

 

Well that sounds outrageous.

 

The line? It started at +3.5 and is at +4.5 now a couple hours later.

 

That line is laughable; so is the Pomeroy. If you're a betting man, bet a lot on Kentucky to cover.

 

However, while a Kentucky blowout is definitely on the table, I wouldn't assume a double-digit win is presaged. The home-court and UK's youth figure to be factors (and, for the record, IU played UK very close the last two years for well over half the game -- and IU is far, far improved this year). UK's athleticism will surely overwhelm IU at some point (I do suspect Hulls will have more success against an erratic Teague than you). I'm guessing, in the end, a 10-12 point win for Kentucky.

[bukie]

So, expect a 10 point margin, but a 6 point margin is laughable?

[Exile on Waveland]

So, expect a 10 point margin, but a 6 point margin is laughable?

 

I'm an IU fan. As rational as I try to be, you can probably tack on a couple points for my bias. A six-point margin obviously isn't as laughable as a 3.5-point margin, but it's still exceedingly optimistic for IU. Kentucky is loaded. IU has a total of three players that can athletically compete on the same court as UK (though, as I said, I do expect Hulls to play well). Obviously I hope I'm wrong and IU wins, but . . . it would be a very big upset.

 

Anyway, keep on believing Wisconsin is the second best team in the nation.

[Sosa21MVP]

Indiana only getting 4 points against Kentucky tomorrow? Pomeroy has Kentucky winning by 6? Now, don't get me wrong. I think IU finishes in the top half of the B1G this year. They're much improved and playing at home in the Hall of Calls. That being said, doesn't Kentucky beat them by double digits tomorrow?

 

And on the roundtable college basketball article this week on ESPN, 3 different people picked IU over Kentucky as their upset. I have been surprised with how close everybody thinks it's going to be. I guess it must be because Kentucky hasn't had a true road game yet and people think the crowd will really shake them.

 

I'm not very up on Kentucky, but isn't the key to beating them forcing them to shoot from outside and making your own outside shots? Indiana's more of a drive and score type of team and I don't know if that will work against Kentucky's shotblockers, and on defense Indiana doesn't have the big men to really guard Kentucky or much experience playing zone. Indiana will force a decent amount of turnovers though as they get lots of deflections.

 

I'm just picturing a physical manhandling. Kentucky players jumping out of the gym blocking shots. Poor Jordy Hulls running for the Shire.

 

Have you watched the IU-UK games the last two years? IU has hung around in both games for roughly 30 minutes or so and the current IU team is deeper and more experienced than anything they put on the court those last two meetings. Meanwhile UK keeps resetting their roster every year. I don't see it as that big of a deal that people think the game could be competitive.

[bukie]

So, expect a 10 point margin, but a 6 point margin is laughable?

 

I'm an IU fan. As rational as I try to be, you can probably tack on a couple points for my bias. A six-point margin obviously isn't as laughable as a 3.5-point margin, but it's still exceedingly optimistic for IU. Kentucky is loaded. IU has a total of three players that can athletically compete on the same court as UK (though, as I said, I do expect Hulls to play well). Obviously I hope I'm wrong and IU wins, but . . . it would be a very big upset.

 

Anyway, keep on believing Wisconsin is the second best team in the nation.

Because that's what I said. I said the UNC-Wisconsin game was a toss-up, and it was. The repeated condescension is really welcome, though. Thanks for the patronizing tone.

[rawaction]

So, expect a 10 point margin, but a 6 point margin is laughable?

 

I'm an IU fan. As rational as I try to be, you can probably tack on a couple points for my bias. A six-point margin obviously isn't as laughable as a 3.5-point margin, but it's still exceedingly optimistic for IU. Kentucky is loaded. IU has a total of three players that can athletically compete on the same court as UK (though, as I said, I do expect Hulls to play well). Obviously I hope I'm wrong and IU wins, but . . . it would be a very big upset.

 

Anyway, keep on believing Wisconsin is the second best team in the nation.

 

Not concerned about the athletic difference. Play good basketball and it doesn't matter. IU was the lesser athletic team vs. NC State and won. Granted, UK can run circles around NCS athletically too, but if the best athletes always won Butler and Wisconsin would never stand a chance. The problem is UK is better athletically AND better at playing basketball than IU.

 

My hope is that IU comes out early, create some turnovers with their active arms, hit some outside shots early and keep it close in the 1st half. I think a win is possible, but I'll be ecstatic if IU is down single digits at the final buzzer and it's not because UKs scrubs gave up some late 3s to make it close.

[Exile on Waveland]

So, expect a 10 point margin, but a 6 point margin is laughable?

 

I'm an IU fan. As rational as I try to be, you can probably tack on a couple points for my bias. A six-point margin obviously isn't as laughable as a 3.5-point margin, but it's still exceedingly optimistic for IU. Kentucky is loaded. IU has a total of three players that can athletically compete on the same court as UK (though, as I said, I do expect Hulls to play well). Obviously I hope I'm wrong and IU wins, but . . . it would be a very big upset.

 

Anyway, keep on believing Wisconsin is the second best team in the nation.

Because that's what I said. I said the UNC-Wisconsin game was a toss-up, and it was. The repeated condescension is really welcome, though. Thanks for the patronizing tone.

 

You're right; you said Wisconsin was closer to the second best team than their current human ranking (which was No. 7 at the time, I believe). I suppose you thus said Wisconsin was a top-4 team, not necessarily the second-best team. I'll stand slightly corrected on that.

 

As for UNC-Wisconsin, using Pomeroy, North Carolina had a 90% chance of winning with five minutes left, over a 95% chance of winning with a minute left, and never less than an 80% chance of winning in the last five minutes. Regardless of what Pomeroy said prior to the game, the game was not a toss-up at the end.

[Exile on Waveland]

So, expect a 10 point margin, but a 6 point margin is laughable?

 

I'm an IU fan. As rational as I try to be, you can probably tack on a couple points for my bias. A six-point margin obviously isn't as laughable as a 3.5-point margin, but it's still exceedingly optimistic for IU. Kentucky is loaded. IU has a total of three players that can athletically compete on the same court as UK (though, as I said, I do expect Hulls to play well). Obviously I hope I'm wrong and IU wins, but . . . it would be a very big upset.

 

Anyway, keep on believing Wisconsin is the second best team in the nation.

Because that's what I said. I said the UNC-Wisconsin game was a toss-up, and it was. The repeated condescension is really welcome, though. Thanks for the patronizing tone.

 

You're right; you said Wisconsin was closer to the second best team than their current human ranking (which was No. 7 at the time, I believe). I suppose you thus said Wisconsin was a top-4 team, not necessarily the second-best team. I'll stand slightly corrected on that.

 

As for UNC-Wisconsin, using Pomeroy, North Carolina had a 90% chance of winning with five minutes left, over a 95% chance of winning with a minute left, and never less than an 80% chance of winning in the last five minutes. Regardless of what Pomeroy said prior to the game, the game was not a toss-up at the end.

[bukie]

You're right; you said Wisconsin was closer to the second best team than their current human ranking (which was No. 7 at the time, I believe). I suppose you thus said Wisconsin was a top-4 team, not necessarily the second-best team. I'll stand slightly corrected on that.

 

As for UNC-Wisconsin, using Pomeroy, North Carolina had a 90% chance of winning with five minutes left, over a 95% chance of winning with a minute left, and never less than an 80% chance of winning in the last five minutes. Regardless of what Pomeroy said prior to the game, the game was not a toss-up at the end.

 

I'm not really sure who put a bug up your ass this year on statistical models, but a couple notes: Wisconsin was 11th ranked going into the game, and UNC was favored. I made mention that any ratings system that takes MOV into account is going to be slightly skewed by a big result early (for Wisconsin and Marquette, specifically this year).

 

So I said though their rating was slightly inflated to produce the statistical projection Pomeroy came up with, Ken specifically noted that, and indicated the true odds were closer to 70% in UNC's favor, but the game could largely end up being a toss-up. It was a 4 point game with 30 seconds to play, a position that is favorable to the team in the lead but still largely volatile. If you're going to argue that Wisconsin had virtually no chance in the game down 4 with 30 to play, then fine.

 

Now, if you're actually going to be willing to discuss possibilities and be open to considerations outside your own ass, then I'll be happy to continue discussion. If not, then you're just wasting my time with your condescension, which is admittedly disappointing because I had thought you were better than that.

[pitchcs]

Indiana only getting 4 points against Kentucky tomorrow? Pomeroy has Kentucky winning by 6? Now, don't get me wrong. I think IU finishes in the top half of the B1G this year. They're much improved and playing at home in the Hall of Calls. That being said, doesn't Kentucky beat them by double digits tomorrow?

 

Well that sounds outrageous.

 

The line? It started at +3.5 and is at +4.5 now a couple hours later.

 

And [expletive] bodog still hasn't posted it.

 

 

Eww, switch books. Blowdog is the worst

[SouthSideRyan]

Indiana only getting 4 points against Kentucky tomorrow? Pomeroy has Kentucky winning by 6? Now, don't get me wrong. I think IU finishes in the top half of the B1G this year. They're much improved and playing at home in the Hall of Calls. That being said, doesn't Kentucky beat them by double digits tomorrow?

 

Well that sounds outrageous.

 

The line? It started at +3.5 and is at +4.5 now a couple hours later.

 

And [expletive] bodog still hasn't posted it.

 

 

Eww, switch books. Blowdog is the worst

 

Any suggestions?

[Exile on Waveland]

You're right; you said Wisconsin was closer to the second best team than their current human ranking (which was No. 7 at the time, I believe). I suppose you thus said Wisconsin was a top-4 team, not necessarily the second-best team. I'll stand slightly corrected on that.

 

As for UNC-Wisconsin, using Pomeroy, North Carolina had a 90% chance of winning with five minutes left, over a 95% chance of winning with a minute left, and never less than an 80% chance of winning in the last five minutes. Regardless of what Pomeroy said prior to the game, the game was not a toss-up at the end.

 

I'm not really sure who put a bug up your ass this year on statistical models, but a couple notes: Wisconsin was 11th ranked going into the game, and UNC was favored. I made mention that any ratings system that takes MOV into account is going to be slightly skewed by a big result early (for Wisconsin and Marquette, specifically this year).

 

So I said though their rating was slightly inflated to produce the statistical projection Pomeroy came up with, Ken specifically noted that, and indicated the true odds were closer to 70% in UNC's favor, but the game could largely end up being a toss-up. It was a 4 point game with 30 seconds to play, a position that is favorable to the team in the lead but still largely volatile. If you're going to argue that Wisconsin had virtually no chance in the game down 4 with 30 to play, then fine.

 

Now, if you're actually going to be willing to discuss possibilities and be open to considerations outside your own ass, then I'll be happy to continue discussion. If not, then you're just wasting my time with your condescension, which is admittedly disappointing because I had thought you were better than that.

 

I love Pomeroy -- I sure as hell better, seeing as I now spend $20 a year for the service. I have no issues with statistical models. Pomeroy is a great, great tool. But it's not perfect. My issue was/is believing statistical models are as reliable in basketball as they are in baseball, especially early in the season. I struggle to understand how one could look at the home-court advantage and talent disparity and believe Wisconsin at UNC was a toss-up. Evidently, even Pomeroy didn't. I was ignorant to that fact, but 70% odds in UNC's favor seems very reasonable (even if I'd put the odds a bit higher).

 

As for the four-point margin with thirty seconds left, it actually wasn't me, but Pomeroy that gave UNC an 80%-plus chance of victory (funny, I think that way too high, but whatever, he's more numerate than me). While Wisconsin did an admirable job in the final minute to close the gap, I'm rather dubious that last-minute heroics are very telling. Anecdotally, from another sport, the Colts trailed the Patriots by only a touchdown with thirty-six seconds remaining last week. Looks like a close game. But anyone that watched knew it wasn't really -- the Pats were ahead 31-3 with about 10 minutes left and 31-10 with just over two minutes left (obviously, the situations aren't identical as UNC never had such a commanding lead). One game is basically never dispositive, but it's kind of all we have to go on at this point, and UNC was in control over the last five minutes.

 

Quickly, on the IU-UK margin. Perhaps my way of thinking is incorrect about this, you tell me. First, I think a four-point difference in a predicted margin is pretty substantial, especially for games that don't figure to be complete dominations. I understand it's only two baskets, but we're not talking about two baskets in a 30-point game. Second, in my mind, the predicted margin of victory should be the median -- i.e., the margin is just as likely to be smaller as larger. It's difficult for me to believe Kentucky winning by less than six (or losing) is equally as likely as Kentucky winning by more than six. I think IU has something of a chance, and don't think it will be a whitewash, but I have a hard time believing the median margin is only six.

[bukie]

I happen to think Indiana is largely underrated by the general public this year because of the prior three years, and should definitely be a top 25 team. I have a hard time right now distinguishing between Big Ten teams other than Ohio State and Nebraska/Iowa/PSU, which will of course sort itself out over the next two months. This UK-IU game is, though, one of the two or three biggest chances for them to lose this year.

[Exile on Waveland]

I happen to think Indiana is largely underrated by the general public this year because of the prior three years, and should definitely be a top 25 team. I have a hard time right now distinguishing between Big Ten teams other than Ohio State and Nebraska/Iowa/PSU, which will of course sort itself out over the next two months. This UK-IU game is, though, one of the two or three biggest chances for them to lose this year.

 

I'm trying not to get overly excited about IU and I've tried to keep my more optimistic thoughts to myself. That's all I'm willing to say on that subject; the last three years have beaten all us Hoosiers down.

 

The last two games against UK give me hope for IU tomorrow (seriously, both were close games for a long time before IU succumbed). I just also worry that UK is such a step up in talent/athleticism from anything IU has seen so far that it could be a rude awakening. If it's a legitimate six-point game (and not a walk-on hitting three 3-pointers in the last thirty seconds), I'll be pleased and quite optimistic about the rest of the season.

 

Regardless, I'm really excited. Too bad I won't be in the gym. All of my family's season tickets are accounted for, unfortunately, and I've been priced out of the re-sell market. This will be the first big IU home game I've missed since like the mid-90s and one of the very few home games, in general, I haven't attended during that time span.

 

Edit: I thought both Iowa and Nebraska would be better than they apparently are. I considered them basically peers with IU, not so much anymore.

[SouthSideRyan]

It's simplistic but if Zeller gets in foul trouble, IU is getting defecated on. If not, maybe just peed on.

[Exile on Waveland]

Ha. If Zeller gets in foul trouble, it'll get ugly in a hurry unless IU hits like 80% from three.

[SouthSideRyan]

I trust Zeller wouldn't get in foul trouble in Bloomington, but to be honest I've seen maybe 10 minutes of the 2 schools combined this year, so I have no idea how clunky and foul prone Zeller is and how much contact the brow draws down low.

[Sosa21MVP]

It's simplistic but if Zeller gets in foul trouble, IU is getting defecated on. If not, maybe just peed on.

 

And guess who is reffing this game? Ted Valentine! Yay. :?

[Sosa21MVP]

I trust Zeller wouldn't get in foul trouble in Bloomington, but to be honest I've seen maybe 10 minutes of the 2 schools combined this year, so I have no idea how clunky and foul prone Zeller is and how much contact the brow draws down low.

 

I don't have the stats in front of me but it doesn't seem like Cody has even gotten into foul trouble once yet. Against NC State he only had 2 fouls and that was his first time playing against truly athletic big men. He doesn't play clunky, I'm more worried about him getting physically overpowered. That does happen to him at times.

[rawaction]

Cody is very fundamentally sound. He typically stays straight up with his hands and he's not super aggressive trying to shot block for a near 7-footer. He hasn't gotten into any foul trouble this year and I don't think he will in this game either, but because he's not aggressive, I think UK's bigs can make some athletic moves to get around him and score some points down low. Not a great defensive player but pretty good at not getting into foul trouble while not being a turnstyle.

[illiniguy]

I trust Zeller wouldn't get in foul trouble in Bloomington, but to be honest I've seen maybe 10 minutes of the 2 schools combined this year, so I have no idea how clunky and foul prone Zeller is and how much contact the brow draws down low.

 

I don't have the stats in front of me but it doesn't seem like Cody has even gotten into foul trouble once yet. Against NC State he only had 2 fouls and that was his first time playing against truly athletic big men. He doesn't play clunky, I'm more worried about him getting physically overpowered. That does happen to him at times.

He should be good against Davis then, he's not an overpowering big.

[pitchcs]

Indiana only getting 4 points against Kentucky tomorrow? Pomeroy has Kentucky winning by 6? Now, don't get me wrong. I think IU finishes in the top half of the B1G this year. They're much improved and playing at home in the Hall of Calls. That being said, doesn't Kentucky beat them by double digits tomorrow?

 

Well that sounds outrageous.

 

The line? It started at +3.5 and is at +4.5 now a couple hours later.

 

And [expletive] bodog still hasn't posted it.

 

 

Eww, switch books. Blowdog is the worst

 

Any suggestions?

 

 

I like Sportsbook a lot, but for some reason they've really been lacking on totals this year. But good for NFL, buying points, teasers, props, whatever you like. I used to use Sportsinteraction, I never had any problems with it either.