Batting order minutiae: Castro 2nd, Ramirez 4th

[Sammy Sofa]

Wasn't Fukudome terrible leading off last year? What if they tried him batting third? You know, since he did it for, like, ten years in Japan. Just a thought.

 

Yeah, his numnbers weren't too hot there last year, but he only started 47 games there last year. He's still got a career .355 OBP there over his three years with the Cubs. Personally, I'd be happy with him hitting 1st or 2nd

 

I'd go Castro/Fuku/Pena/Aram/Soto/Soriano/Byrd/DeWitt myself

 

Works for me.

[dew1679666265]

Wasn't Fukudome terrible leading off last year? What if they tried him batting third? You know, since he did it for, like, ten years in Japan. Just a thought.

 

Yeah, his numnbers weren't too hot there last year, but he only started 47 games there last year. He's still got a career .355 OBP there over his three years with the Cubs. Personally, I'd be happy with him hitting 1st or 2nd

 

I'd go Castro/Fuku/Pena/Aram/Soto/Soriano/Byrd/DeWitt myself

 

Not necessarily disagreeing with you, but why Castro ahead of Fuku?

[Sammy Sofa]

Why not?

[dew1679666265]

Why not?

 

Like I said, I'm not disagreeing. Just curious as to his reasoning.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, it's with about 100 less PA (444 vs. 339), but the argument could be made that Kosuke hits better from the #2 spot instead of #1.

 

.233 .355 .363 .718

 

.255 .353 .427 .780

 

Though with 368 PA he's been very effective hitting #5:

 

.291 .381 .468 .850

 

So hell, I don't know.

 

Maybe something like:

 

Castro

Soto

Pena

Aramis

Fukudome

Soriano

Byrd

DeWitt

[XZero771679666304]

I like Fuku first because he works the count more than Castro, and gives the guys behind him more of a look at the pitcher. Also, I think he'll ground into fewer double plays than Kosuke would (assuming you put Kosuke second if Castro is first). And I think there is some scrutiny that comes with the perceived "responsibility" of batting leadoff. Castro will be under enough as it is.

[XZero771679666304]

Well, it's with about 100 less PA (444 vs. 339), but the argument could be made that Kosuke hits better from the #2 spot instead of #1.

 

.233 .355 .363 .718

 

.255 .353 .427 .780

 

Though with 368 PA he's been very effective hitting #5:

 

.291 .381 .468 .850

 

So hell, I don't know.

 

Maybe something like:

 

Castro

Soto

Pena

Aramis

Fukudome

Soriano

Byrd

DeWitt

 

Kosuke got quite a few ABs in 2008 and 2009 in the first spot, and did well (an OPS of .800+). I think his performance last season there was just incidental, coinciding with his slump.

[abuck1220]

I like Fuku first because he works the count more than Castro, and gives the guys behind him more of a look at the pitcher.

 

what is this, little league? that doesn't matter in the big leagues.

[dew1679666265]

Well, it's with about 100 less PA (444 vs. 339), but the argument could be made that Kosuke hits better from the #2 spot instead of #1.

 

I'm not a big fan of using lineup position stats - too small a sample size most of the time. I wouldn't argue against Castro 1 and Fuku 2, but I'm not the biggest fan of Castro at the top of the order anyway due to questions about his OBP this early in his career.

 

Ideally, we put Kosuke 1 and Soto 2, but that's not happening.

 

Kosuke

Soto

Aramis

Pena

Byrd

Soriano

Castro

DeWitt

P

 

If Soto's not going to the top of the order (he's not), then Castro's the next best option.

[Guest]

I think putting Fuku & Pena back to back is just begging the opposing manager to bring in a LOOGY in a big spot.

[erik316wttn]

I think putting Fuku & Pena back to back is just begging the opposing manager to bring in a LOOGY in a big spot.

 

That's a good point. I didn't even think about that. Keep my original lineup but swap Pena with either Aram or Soto.

[XZero771679666304]

I like Fuku first because he works the count more than Castro, and gives the guys behind him more of a look at the pitcher.

 

what is this, little league? that doesn't matter in the big leagues.

 

 

It doesn't mean nearly as much, but it's a big stretch to say it doesn't matter at all.

[bukie]

I think putting Fuku & Pena back to back is just begging the opposing manager to bring in a LOOGY in a big spot.

Thus magically transforming him into a LTOGY?

[Bluescale]

Why not stick Aramis in the 3rd spot and be done with it (unless he shows that he's going to have another bad year). Soto goes after him. Unless folks really think Pena is going to have a big turnaround, Ramirez and Soto will be our two best run producers.

 

How do you figure? Aramis, yeah, you can make that argument, but Pena really doesn't have to improve all that much to be producing runs from the #3 spot.

 

Because I don't have much faith in feast or famine guys. He walks a lot and hits for a lot of power, but he also creates a lot of outs, many of which are unproductive outs. In his career he has 260 more strikeouts than hits. That sort of ratio makes me uncomfortable unless you're walking and getting hits as often as Adam Dunn.

 

That said, I just looked at his numbers, and they aren't as atrocious as I thought. I was under the impression that his BB were going down and his SO were going up. I was wrong about that. It's definitely not as certain as I made it sound above.

[Bluescale]

Why not stick Aramis in the 3rd spot and be done with it (unless he shows that he's going to have another bad year). Soto goes after him. Unless folks really think Pena is going to have a big turnaround, Ramirez and Soto will be our two best run producers.

 

How do you figure? Aramis, yeah, you can make that argument, but Pena really doesn't have to improve all that much to be producing runs from the #3 spot.

 

Yeah. Even with his overall crappy numbers last year, Pena still drove in 84 runs. I'm pretty sure that would have lead the Cubs in RBIs.

 

RBIs alone don't tell you how good of a run producer a guy is, just like wins alone don't tell you how good a pitcher is. But yes, point taken.

[SouthSideRyan]

Unless you think Pena's 2010 is his new established talent level, he doesn't "make a lot of outs"

[Bluescale]

Unless you think Pena's 2010 is his new established talent level, he doesn't "make a lot of outs"

 

Or if you think he peaked between 29 and 31, and is now sliding back hard...His strikeout to hit ratio is really, really bad. It's hard to keep getting on base when you miss the ball that often.

[Sammy Sofa]

But his strikeout rate doesn't seem to be climbing, plus his hits were severely impacted by some bad luck last year. It's not like he had a spike in swinging and missing vs. hits last year. His strikeouts basically stayed the same while he hit into a lot more outs than he had the previous 3 years.

 

If he's going to be some variation of 2007-2009 Pena it would be pretty hard to argue against him hitting #3.

[Guest]

Pena 2008: 33% K%, 15% BB%, 18% HR/FB, .298 BABIP, .247/.377/.494

 

Pena 2010: 32% K%, 15% BB%, 21% HR/FB, .222 BABIP, .196/.325/.407

[CubColtPacer]

Pena 2008: 33% K%, 15% BB%, 18% HR/FB, .298 BABIP, .247/.377/.494

 

Pena 2010: 32% K%, 15% BB%, 21% HR/FB, .222 BABIP, .196/.325/.407

 

I don't think BABIP tells anywhere near the whole story for the change in this. First, his LD percentage was 18.0% in 08 but in 2010 it was only 14.5%. Second, his GB percentage went way up in 2010. It GB/FB ratio was 0.63 in 08 and 0.54 in 09 but in 2010 it was 1.11. If Pena hits that many ground balls with that small of a LD percentage he's almost certainly going to have a bad BABIP because it's very easy to play him to pull grounders to the right side.

 

Now why he had such a small LD percentage and high GB percentage is a different story. It almost certainly could be related to the injuries and rebound this year. If it does, he'll be a very productive hitter once again.

[Bluescale]

But his strikeout rate doesn't seem to be climbing, plus his hits were severely impacted by some bad luck last year. It's not like he had a spike in swinging and missing vs. hits last year. His strikeouts basically stayed the same while he hit into a lot more outs than he had the previous 3 years.

 

If he's going to be some variation of 2007-2009 Pena it would be pretty hard to argue against him hitting #3.

 

Right. And I already stated I was wrong about his SO/BB #'s changing. I have no vested interest in being right in this argument. Hell...I have a vested interest in being wrong. However, I'll maintain my skepticism. MOST players can't strikeout that often and still consistently put up an OPS+ around 130 or above. Hopefully Pena is more talented than I'm giving him credit for.

 

If his OPS+ is blow 125 and he's batting 3rd, we're in trouble unless we have a bunch of guys hovering right around there.

[Guest]

Pena 2008: 33% K%, 15% BB%, 18% HR/FB, .298 BABIP, .247/.377/.494

 

Pena 2010: 32% K%, 15% BB%, 21% HR/FB, .222 BABIP, .196/.325/.407

 

I don't think BABIP tells anywhere near the whole story for the change in this. First, his LD percentage was 18.0% in 08 but in 2010 it was only 14.5%. Second, his GB percentage went way up in 2010. It GB/FB ratio was 0.63 in 08 and 0.54 in 09 but in 2010 it was 1.11. If Pena hits that many ground balls with that small of a LD percentage he's almost certainly going to have a bad BABIP because it's very easy to play him to pull grounders to the right side.

 

Now why he had such a small LD percentage and high GB percentage is a different story. It almost certainly could be related to the injuries and rebound this year. If it does, he'll be a very productive hitter once again.

 

I wasn't necessarily making the point that BABIP explains all of that difference. The point was that his K/BB/HR profile hadn't changed even though he had a huge swing in performance.

[Bluescale]

Pena 2008: 33% K%, 15% BB%, 18% HR/FB, .298 BABIP, .247/.377/.494

 

Pena 2010: 32% K%, 15% BB%, 21% HR/FB, .222 BABIP, .196/.325/.407

 

You don't honestly think 2010 Pena was the same hitter as 2008 Pena, do you?

[SouthSideRyan]

But his strikeout rate doesn't seem to be climbing, plus his hits were severely impacted by some bad luck last year. It's not like he had a spike in swinging and missing vs. hits last year. His strikeouts basically stayed the same while he hit into a lot more outs than he had the previous 3 years.

 

If he's going to be some variation of 2007-2009 Pena it would be pretty hard to argue against him hitting #3.

 

Right. And I already stated I was wrong about his SO/BB #'s changing. I have no vested interest in being right in this argument. Hell...I have a vested interest in being wrong. However, I'll maintain my skepticism. MOST players can't strikeout that often and still consistently put up an OPS+ around 130 or above. Hopefully Pena is more talented than I'm giving him credit for.

 

If his OPS+ is blow 125 and he's batting 3rd, we're in trouble unless we have a bunch of guys hovering right around there.

 

If we have a bunch of guys hovering around a 125 OPS+ we'll have the best offense in baseball

[Bluescale]

But his strikeout rate doesn't seem to be climbing, plus his hits were severely impacted by some bad luck last year. It's not like he had a spike in swinging and missing vs. hits last year. His strikeouts basically stayed the same while he hit into a lot more outs than he had the previous 3 years.

 

If he's going to be some variation of 2007-2009 Pena it would be pretty hard to argue against him hitting #3.

 

Right. And I already stated I was wrong about his SO/BB #'s changing. I have no vested interest in being right in this argument. Hell...I have a vested interest in being wrong. However, I'll maintain my skepticism. MOST players can't strikeout that often and still consistently put up an OPS+ around 130 or above. Hopefully Pena is more talented than I'm giving him credit for.

 

If his OPS+ is blow 125 and he's batting 3rd, we're in trouble unless we have a bunch of guys hovering right around there.

 

If we have a bunch of guys hovering around a 125 OPS+ we'll have the best offense in baseball

 

Agreed. Assuming we don't have a bunch of guys around 125, I at least want our #3 hitter to be there. I'm not convinced that Pena, despite his run from 2007-2009 is going to be that guy.