Harang: Dusty ruined my career

[TruffleShuffle]

boy he sure is having trouble finding a few examples out of that zillion he mentioned.

[Guest]

boy he sure is having trouble finding a few examples out of that zillion he mentioned.

 

Probably takes awhile to document a zillion examples.

[hardcorecubfan]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=6079107

 

Decent article on fatigue after the series, but a lot of disclaimers throughout

 

We looked at the World Series participants in the past 10 years, and the effect on the pitching staffs the following seasons to those 20 teams. Fourteen of the 20 -- 70 percent -- had an ERA increase the next season. Eight of the 20 -- 40 percent -- had an increase of least a half run, which is substantial. The 10 teams that won the World Series averaged an increase in ERA of .281. The 10 losing teams averaged an increase of .213. The Detroit Tigers went to the World Series in 2006 and compiled a 3.84 ERA, but had a 4.57 ERA the next year, a .73 increase. The St. Louis Cardinals won the 2006 World Series and had a 3.57 ERA, but it increased by 1.08 to 4.65 in 2007. The Chicago White Sox won the World Series in 2005; their team ERA the next year went from 3.61 to 4.61

[shnsajax]

Thats interesting but I won't give a damn if the Cubs post an era in the 10's the year after they win the WS.

[CubColtPacer]

boy he sure is having trouble finding a few examples out of that zillion he mentioned.

 

Yeah, I don't remember anyone throwing 60+ pitches on that little rest after a normal start (obviously if a pitcher gets knocked out in the first 2 innings or gets thrown out early they might come back on very short rest). The closest example I can remember is Beckett throwing 4 innings and 45 pitches in game 7 in the NLCS on only 2 days rest coming off a complete game 115 pitch game. I'm sure there's another example or two out there but it's rather rare because most managers are so much more careful with their pitchers in the last 10 years.

[Guest]

boy he sure is having trouble finding a few examples out of that zillion he mentioned.

 

Yeah, I don't remember anyone throwing 60+ pitches on that little rest after a normal start (obviously if a pitcher gets knocked out in the first 2 innings or gets thrown out early they might come back on very short rest). The closest example I can remember is Beckett throwing 4 innings and 45 pitches in game 7 in the NLCS on only 2 days rest coming off a complete game 115 pitch game. I'm sure there's another example or two out there but it's rather rare because most managers are so much more careful with their pitchers in the last 10 years.

 

The difference between throwing on the side between starts to keep the arm loose in relation to hitting spots and missing bats with deception in a live game is night and day. And let us also not forget that it isn't really just 60 pitches. There are all of the warm up pitches on the sideline to get loose and ready to enter the game. Then there are the multiple pitches thrown to get loose before each inning starts. And then maybe toss in a few more throws to 1st base to keep the runner in check.

 

Harang believes Dusty is the reason for the derailment of his career, and while I'm not totally convinced that I would believe everything Harang said to be 100% accurate, that he blames a guy who has been guilty of ruining other people's arms besides his is something I can get on board with. Is it really that much of a stretch? It's not like this declaration will force Dusty to pay Harang for all future lost income.

[TruffleShuffle]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=6079107

 

Decent article on fatigue after the series, but a lot of disclaimers throughout

 

We looked at the World Series participants in the past 10 years, and the effect on the pitching staffs the following seasons to those 20 teams. Fourteen of the 20 -- 70 percent -- had an ERA increase the next season. Eight of the 20 -- 40 percent -- had an increase of least a half run, which is substantial. The 10 teams that won the World Series averaged an increase in ERA of .281. The 10 losing teams averaged an increase of .213. The Detroit Tigers went to the World Series in 2006 and compiled a 3.84 ERA, but had a 4.57 ERA the next year, a .73 increase. The St. Louis Cardinals won the 2006 World Series and had a 3.57 ERA, but it increased by 1.08 to 4.65 in 2007. The Chicago White Sox won the World Series in 2005; their team ERA the next year went from 3.61 to 4.61

 

without reading the article - i'm feeling particularly lazy right now - those teams probably made the world series in large part because they had good pitching, so there was a pretty good chance that they'd regress even without the added innings on their arms.

[Tarver]

You people couldn't have forgotten '04 and '05 already?

 

Dusty fucked us. It's too early to start apologizing for that schmuck.

[Bluescale]

And a pitcher bitching and moaning three years later doesn't exactly prove it either. My point is that if there was no damage there, then one game like that wouldn't hurt him. If there was damage there, and his arm was more sore than normal, it's HIS job to TELL someone.

 

Anyone who's managed a team know that it is the managers job to understand the limitations of his employees. Sure, you take input from your team, but the decision and responsibility ultimately lie with the leader.

[davearm2]

Just curious if any of the Dusty bashers here would like to dissect the game and tell us what Dusty should have done differently that night.

 

From what I can see, the bullpen was taxed early that night when the starter (Belisle) couldn't get through the 5th inning.

 

Dusty brought in his closer (Cordero) to start the 9th with a 1-run lead, and he blew the save. Cordero then came back out for the 10th. That was the 5th reliever used.

 

In the 11th, the Reds scored twice, so Dusty brought in reliever #6 (Fogg) to finish it out. He couldn't, so he had to bring in his last reliever to get the last out (Bray). Bray then served up the tying run. Bray came back to pitch the 12th.

 

So now when you come to the 13th, you can a) send your LOOGY (Bray) out there for his third inning (and send him up to bat in the top of the inning), b) PH for Bray then turn to a starter like Harang, or c) concede the game by having some infielder pitch.

 

NO manager would choose c). Very few would choose a). And once you choose b), then your subsequent options are to stick with that starter, or to stress yet another starter.

 

The game went 18 innings people. The manager is going to have to do some things he'd much rather not do in that situation.

[TruffleShuffle]

not use one of your best starting pitchers after he threw 100+ pitches like 2 nights earlier. put in a reserve outfielder or utility infielder and have them pitch until you (presumably) lose. this isn't game seven of the world series, it's a game in may between two bad baseball teams. whether the reds won or lost basically did not matter.

[UMFan83]

Yup, putting in a IF in a long extra innings game has happened before. It actually happened last year I believe. Conceding 1 game out of 162 is better than risking your ace's career.

[Northside Blues]

Last year 8 position players pitched. Only two of them pitched in an extra inning game, the others blowouts. Felipe Lopez and Joe Mather both pitched in the 20 inning Mets/Cardinals game. Lopez came in to pitch inning #18 for the Cardinals. Joe Mather pitched innings #19 and 20. None pitched inning fourteen.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, bust your brains on that one, "Dusty bashers."

[imb]

Yeah, bust your brains on that one, "Dusty bashers."

 

it's called "Dusty busters"

[SouthSideRyan]

Maybe he shouldn't have spazzed out for platoon advantage vs 45 year old Brian Giles

[SouthSideRyan]

Maybe he shouldn't have spazzed out for platoon advantage vs 45 year old Brian Giles

 

Or alternatively had Bray start the inning since the righties Fogg faced were Luke Carlin, Scott Hairston, and Tadahito Iguchi

[davearm2]

not use one of your best starting pitchers after he threw 100+ pitches like 2 nights earlier. put in a reserve outfielder or utility infielder and have them pitch until you (presumably) lose. this isn't game seven of the world series, it's a game in may between two bad baseball teams. whether the reds won or lost basically did not matter.

No manager actually does this in the situation we're talking about (13th inning of a tie game, with real pitchers unused).

 

And let's not ignore that non-pitchers can get hurt pitching. Happened to Jose Canseco, I believe.

 

Quit pretending like there's some no-brainer answer here. Giving up by having an IF pitch sure isn't one.

[Sammy Sofa]

Sure it is. Why are you going to risk so much more over a single game that has virtually no meaning in the big picture? If you're such a shitty manager that you've used up your bullpen options, well, sometimes you just have to effectively toss it in when the game is going twice as long as usual. That's as no-brainer as it gets.

 

Though you probably think Votto should have dropped a sick bunt bro at some point, so what the [expletive] do you know?

[davearm2]

I'll keep my eyes peeled in the game threads this year for all the folks screaming for the Cubs to give up in an extra-inning tie game so that nobody risks getting hurt.

 

Or better yet, just point me to an old game thread where that happened.

[SouthSideRyan]

You do that

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh, right, because it'll just be a typical "extra inning game" and not an 18 inning monstrosity where Quade has depleted the bullpen when people are "screaming for the Cubs to give up;" what a silly, stupid thing to say. Yes, unless it's a critical game I'll almost always prefer that the Cubs effectively pack it in if it's tied and there's nobody left in the bullpen. That's almost always a much better option than trying to squeeze relief work out of a starter.

[TruffleShuffle]

dude, tony larussa used two position players in a game last year without resorting to using another starting pitcher. there are a number of managers who are good, smart managers and understand that winning one regular season is less important than the health and effectiveness of one of their best starting pitchers.

 

let's also remember that josh fogg - not exactly a guy with a great arm and a bright future - threw eight pitches during extra innings. they ran into this problem because dusty managed the game like a complete spaz without a backup option, and then ended up boxing himself into a corner.

 

davearm, you may want to skip this part because it involves some math - let's make the rudimentary assumption that using harang gave the reds a win expectancy of 50%. if they don't use him, i'll be generous to your side and say there's no chance they win (which obviously isn't true - whatever position player the reds hypothetically used could allow no runs, or their offense could score more runs in the top of their inning than the padres score in the bottom). so under this generous assumption, the reds expect to have an extra half win for the year. what's more likely, that the extra half win would be the difference between the reds - who at the time the game was played (late may) were already 4 games under .500 and 6 games behind the cubs - making and missing the playoffs? or that one of the starting pitchers they used in extra innings would suffer negative effects from it and either become less effective or injured (or both)?

[Guest]

Aaron Harang's WAR from 05-07 was 14.5, or 4.8 per year. And seeing as how all of his numbers up until the extra inning game were right in line with what he had done from 05-07, it's a good bet he would put up another similar WAR for 2008.

 

His actual WAR in 2008 ended up being 2.0.

[Keener98]

Why did Dusty pick Harang? Wouldn't it make a hell of a lot more sense to use the next days starting pitcher? You know, since hes the most rested non reliever? Then the next day you have a minor league callup start in place of him, and then you dont ruin Aaron Harangs career. Na, that makes too much since and we are just here to bash Dusty