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2011 Preseason "Expert" evaluation thread

Banedon

By Banedon,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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apete6 ACL Cubs

apete6

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

I actually met Buster Olney the other day and he was a very nice guy. We chatted about the Cubs for about 10 minutes or so and here were some of his thoughts:

 

Zambrano is back and will be very good

Pena will be better than last year, but has a hole in his swing everyone knows about

Likes Dempster and Wells

Thinks Quade is awesome

Soriano is done and can't move anymore

Thinks Garza will be OK, but is leery of anyone trading with the Rays

 

Overall, he thinks Cubs should be competitive and playing meaningful games in September, but isn't picking them to win the division.

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Cubs Fan Dan Draft Eligible

Cubs Fan Dan

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Many are speaking of the Reds as some young team dynasty in the making, in looking at their 2010 lineup am I missing something?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2010.shtml

 

Hernandez and Gomes played above their means, Rolen was injury free, yes Bruce and Votto are young and very good but, let's not kid our selfs the Reds had quite of bit thngs break right for them in 2010.

 

Some people are predicting a 40 home run season from Bruce, which i guess is possible. I do not really see Cueto or Volquez as healthy long term pitchers to build around.

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Many are speaking of the Reds as some young team dynasty in the making, in looking at their 2010 lineup am I missing something?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2010.shtml

 

Hernandez and Gomes played above their means, Rolen was injury free, yes Bruce and Votto are young and very good but, let's not kid our selfs the Reds had quite of bit things break right for them in 2010.

 

Meh, they have some pieces. If Bruce can become a .950 OPS hitter like many think he can be, its hard to beat him and Votto in the middle of the order. Pitching wise they have a few decent starters but nothing dominating. I think they are hoping Volquez can return to the form he had in his all star year, and eventually hope that Chapman can be an ace quality starter. That's gonna give them a good chance to compete every year.

 

Their farm system is decent from what I've read, but clearly not at the level it was a few years ago. Chapman is the best one they have, but they also have 3-4 more guys that would make a top 100 list (Hamilton, that catcher dude, and a first baseman come to mind).

 

Overall, they could end up being a great team for many years...its possible. But I'm not thinking 'the central is unwinnable for the next few years'

davearm2 First Round Pick

davearm2

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I actually met Buster Olney the other day and he was a very nice guy. We chatted about the Cubs for about 10 minutes or so and here were some of his thoughts:

 

Zambrano is back and will be very good

Pena will be better than last year, but has a hole in his swing everyone knows about

Likes Dempster and Wells

Thinks Quade is awesome

Soriano is done and can't move anymore

Thinks Garza will be OK, but is leery of anyone trading with the Rays

 

Overall, he thinks Cubs should be competitive and playing meaningful games in September, but isn't picking them to win the division.

This begs the question... does Olney get his intel from NSBB conventional wisdom or does NSBB get its conventional wisdom from Olney intel? They seem to be more or less in complete agreement.

SouthSideRyan MVP

SouthSideRyan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Tell me more about NSBB conventional wisdom cause I sure as [expletive] think Olney is talking out of his ass about the hole in Pena's swing that everyone knows about. (Except the Cubs apparently) And I sure as [expletive] think he's wrong about Soriano no longer being able to move.
Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I actually met Buster Olney the other day and he was a very nice guy. We chatted about the Cubs for about 10 minutes or so and here were some of his thoughts:

 

Zambrano is back and will be very good

Pena will be better than last year, but has a hole in his swing everyone knows about

Likes Dempster and Wells

Thinks Quade is awesome

Soriano is done and can't move anymore

Thinks Garza will be OK, but is leery of anyone trading with the Rays

 

Overall, he thinks Cubs should be competitive and playing meaningful games in September, but isn't picking them to win the division.

This begs the question... does Olney get his intel from NSBB conventional wisdom or does NSBB get its conventional wisdom from Olney intel? They seem to be more or less in complete agreement.

 

How do you figure this, o swami.

Rob Knoxville Smokies

Rob

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Soriano isn't done. Maybe as a superstar, but 2.9 WAR is nothing to scoff at. Only Soto and Byrd were better amongst position players last year.
Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
Soriano isn't done. Maybe as a superstar, but 2.9 WAR is nothing to scoff at. Only Soto and Byrd were better amongst position players last year.

 

Where did you get 2.9??

 

It was 1.4 according to baseball-reference.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/soriaal01.shtml

 

Also, he was never quite a superstar.

Soriano hasn't seen 2.9 in years and he's done. The punch line is the Cubs still have to pay him.

KingCubsFan ACL Cubs

KingCubsFan

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Many are speaking of the Reds as some young team dynasty in the making, in looking at their 2010 lineup am I missing something?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2010.shtml

 

Hernandez and Gomes played above their means, Rolen was injury free, yes Bruce and Votto are young and very good but, let's not kid our selfs the Reds had quite of bit things break right for them in 2010.

 

Meh, they have some pieces. If Bruce can become a .950 OPS hitter like many think he can be, its hard to beat him and Votto in the middle of the order. Pitching wise they have a few decent starters but nothing dominating. I think they are hoping Volquez can return to the form he had in his all star year, and eventually hope that Chapman can be an ace quality starter. That's gonna give them a good chance to compete every year.

 

Their farm system is decent from what I've read, but clearly not at the level it was a few years ago. Chapman is the best one they have, but they also have 3-4 more guys that would make a top 100 list (Hamilton, that catcher dude, and a first baseman come to mind).

 

Overall, they could end up being a great team for many years...its possible. But I'm not thinking 'the central is unwinnable for the next few years'

Plus they have Dusty. Harang is already gone, Cueto is next, and Volquez has always had issues. Bailey is hurt too, but doesn't look like he'll be a long-term answer anyways. I wouldn't be surprised if Dusty panics and puts Chapman into the rotation in the middle of the year, leading to a Dr. Andrews visit next spring training.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
Like, did Soriano lose his torso or something this offseason? Why does everyone act like he's Koyie Hill?

 

To be fair, CubinNY has been raging crazy against Soriano for several years.

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
He's no Koyie Hill, and the comment above is too extreme, but I'm not going to pretend the 35 year old declining hitter with negative defensive value and a .734 OPS in his last 400 PA last year is anything but a below average player with an bad contract.
Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
He's no Koyie Hill, and the comment above is too extreme, but I'm not going to pretend the 35 year old declining hitter with negative defensive value and a .734 OPS in his last 400 PA last year is anything but a below average player with an bad contract.

 

 

Why just his last 400 PA?

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
Soriano does not have negative defensive value, and the first two months of the season count in the standings.
UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
He's no Koyie Hill, and the comment above is too extreme, but I'm not going to pretend the 35 year old declining hitter with negative defensive value and a .734 OPS in his last 400 PA last year is anything but a below average player with an bad contract.

 

 

Why just his last 400 PA?

 

Because that's when he started his downward spiral, and was convenient for me because I believe Soriano continues his decline this year. I don't think he'll be awful but I'm not really holding out hope he returns to his 07-08 levels.

 

To the other responder, it depends on what you are looking at. BR has him at -0.1 dWAR, fangraphs has him at 5.2 UZR. Either way, he's not someone you keep in the lineup for his defense.

Rob Knoxville Smokies

Rob

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

It really seems like people are having a hard time letting go of his injury riddled 2009. Yes, he looked awful in the field and at the plate. It was horrifying.

 

He was fine last year. He wont be worth anywhere near what we paid him, but that's a sunk cost. His play on the field isn't one of the glaring issues with this team.

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
So Soriano declined from '09-'10?

 

Possibly. He was injured all of 09 so we have no idea where his skills when healthy were. He's certainly declined from 08 to 10.

 

All I know is he had a great start to last year and fairly awful the last 3/4 of the year.

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