Cubs Sign Pena to 1 year, $10 million Deal (p. 3)

[David]

Looking at his monthly splits last year, it looks like his numbers suffer from 2 completely anemic months, May and September.

 

OPS by month:

April: .859 (95 PA)

May: .483 (116 PA)

June: .920 (107 PA)

July: .871 (104 PA)

August: .839 (63 PA)

September: .489 (97 PA)

 

 

I don't get why we do this... it's an entire season and months are just arbitrary intervals of time.

[David]

If Fukudome is dumped or benched for Colvin, I'm not sure who leads off, but it sure is going to suck when everyone realizes how not-good Colvin really is.

[CubColtPacer]

I like the deal. There could be something mechanically wrong with his swing that caused the problems last year. His ground ball percentage went way up and his line drives went down even further. The BABIP was low but he's definitely going to need to be more of a flyball hitter like he was in 2007-2009 if he's going to be successful. But there isn't much risk in this deal and he at least has the potential to have a great year next year which is what the Cubs would likely need to have a decent chance of contending.

 

Besides, he's another Carlos to add to the bunch.

[Guest]

Looking at his monthly splits last year, it looks like his numbers suffer from 2 completely anemic months, May and September.

 

OPS by month:

April: .859 (95 PA)

May: .483 (116 PA)

June: .920 (107 PA)

July: .871 (104 PA)

August: .839 (63 PA)

September: .489 (97 PA)

 

 

I don't get why we do this... it's an entire season and months are just arbitrary intervals of time.

 

I think you could do less arbitrary intervals and have the point stand. Pena wasn't a crappy hitter all year, or even most of the year. It was two extreme slumps that pulled down his numbers, which is consistent with his BABIP for believing that 2010 was more fluke than decline.

[UMFan83]

Looking at his monthly splits last year, it looks like his numbers suffer from 2 completely anemic months, May and September.

 

OPS by month:

April: .859 (95 PA)

May: .483 (116 PA)

June: .920 (107 PA)

July: .871 (104 PA)

August: .839 (63 PA)

September: .489 (97 PA)

 

 

I don't get why we do this... it's an entire season and months are just arbitrary intervals of time.

 

Because it's good to see that he didn't just hit .198 with a .732 OPS all of last year or rather he showed flashes of the +.850 OPS hitter he has been in the past. That's also a potential that his heel was bothering him for the month of September and he tried to play through it with his team in the playoff race and it greatly effected his numbers.

 

The numbers are worthwhile if you know how to use them.

[jersey cubs fan]

I would bet most guys who had bad years didn't bat poorly all year long.

[UMFan83]

I would bet most guys who had bad years didn't bat poorly all year long.

 

I doubt it too. I also doubt they didn't hit their career norm for 70% of the year and hits anemically bad the other 30%.

[Guest]

I would bet most guys who had bad years didn't bat poorly all year long.

 

I would guess that not very many batted well for 2/3 of the year though.

[David]

Looking at his monthly splits last year, it looks like his numbers suffer from 2 completely anemic months, May and September.

 

OPS by month:

April: .859 (95 PA)

May: .483 (116 PA)

June: .920 (107 PA)

July: .871 (104 PA)

August: .839 (63 PA)

September: .489 (97 PA)

 

 

I don't get why we do this... it's an entire season and months are just arbitrary intervals of time.

 

I think you could do less arbitrary intervals and have the point stand. Pena wasn't a crappy hitter all year, or even most of the year. It was two extreme slumps that pulled down his numbers, which is consistent with his BABIP for believing that 2010 was more fluke than decline.

 

True enough, but I still don't understand what finding periods of time that dragged his overall numbers down tells us about anything. Especially when the periods of time are separate... if it was a bad first two months or something like that, I might get that a little more (that would likely lead me to speculate that the improvement less to do with bad luck and more to do with turning a corner performance-wise).

 

But picking out two slumps that basically made his numbers crappy... I'm not really sure what to make of that other than I'd guess that most hitters who have bad years similarly have periods of both good and bad, with the bad outweighing the good. Granted, in Pena's case the differences between said periods are pretty extreme.

[Backtobanks]

Not thrilled by Pena at first but he should be an offensive upgrade over last season at less money than we paid Lee last year, so fair enough.

 

Just curious but what would be your first option? I personally prefer this over the money/years Dunn got and over the prospects given up/money/years Gonzalez got.

 

There is nobody in the system even close to being capable of playing 1B at a decent level next year. You are just going to have to go out and overpay another guy next year.

 

If the Texas deal goes through, you have a year to groom Davis or Colvin for the future.

 

They are baseball players. You can't really groom them into being something they are not. Neither of those guys is a decent bet to hit well enough to justify a starting 1B gig.

 

You can work on the defense with Colvin. As for offensively, both are young enough to possibly put up decent power numbers in the future. Neither one is a sure bet for a good solid 1B, but both show some potential.

[mookie]

So, is this team built to win a five game series yet?

 

 

:-"

[C.C.]

What contracts expire at the end of the 2011 season?

 

If you're talking about the Cubs, we lose Grabow, Samardzija, Fukudome, Ramirez(team option), Silva, and Dempster has a player option.

 

If you're wondering what's available through FA next offseason, the short answer is not much. But, 1B options could include Prince, A-Gon and even Pujols.

 

 

We aren't getting any of those 3.

[SouthSideRyan]

Looking at his monthly splits last year, it looks like his numbers suffer from 2 completely anemic months, May and September.

 

OPS by month:

April: .859 (95 PA)

May: .483 (116 PA)

June: .920 (107 PA)

July: .871 (104 PA)

August: .839 (63 PA)

September: .489 (97 PA)

 

 

I don't get why we do this... it's an entire season and months are just arbitrary intervals of time.

 

We need to bench Pena for those 2 months! And Fukudome every day but opening day!!

[Post Count Padder]

Thank Jeebus.

 

This was clearly the best option and I'm glad it's just a one-year deal. I would have preferred something closer to 7-8 mil, but 10 isn't too bad.

 

A move out of the AL East and into Wrigley, and I think he posts an OPS in the .870-.900 range easily.

[jersey cubs fan]

I would bet most guys who had bad years didn't bat poorly all year long.

 

I doubt it too. I also doubt they didn't hit their career norm for 70% of the year and hits anemically bad the other 30%.

 

What is Carlos Pena's career norm? He's had full seasons of sub 800 OPS and one well over 1000. I think his career norm is inconsistency and volatility. He's never been a 160 game player, has lost most of two key seasons I assume to injury and was once again banged up last year. I would guess it's pretty normal for him to have such crappy months and there is no good reason to treat his 2010 season as anything but what it was as a whole. We aren't looking for him to play 4 months of baseball next season. He might OPS 1000 one month, but I think it would be a mistake to expect much more than a low 800 OPS for the season.

[jersey cubs fan]

You can work on the defense with Colvin. As for offensively, both are young enough to possibly put up decent power numbers in the future. Neither one is a sure bet for a good solid 1B, but both show some potential.

 

Defense isn't the issue. And occasional power is worthless in comparison to the horrible OBP.

[jersey cubs fan]

A move out of the AL East and into Wrigley, and I think he posts an OPS in the .870-.900 range easily.

 

That is pretty much insane. It's not like it's hard to hit in the AL East.

[SouthSideRyan]

Pena hasn't spent any significant time hurt. He spent half of '05 in the minors cause the Tigers demoted him, then signed a couply minor league contracts with the Yankees and Boston in '06.

[Post Count Padder]

A move out of the AL East and into Wrigley, and I think he posts an OPS in the .870-.900 range easily.

 

That is pretty much insane. It's not like it's hard to hit in the AL East.

No, but he goes from one of the best divisions to one of the least competitive. I'm not saying it's gonna make him a superstar, but a slight bump in numbers wouldn't surprise me.

[jersey cubs fan]

Pena hasn't spent any significant time hurt. He spent half of '05 in the minors cause the Tigers demoted him, then signed a couply minor league contracts with the Yankees and Boston in '06.

 

I thought he was banged up one of those years.

[jersey cubs fan]

A move out of the AL East and into Wrigley, and I think he posts an OPS in the .870-.900 range easily.

 

That is pretty much insane. It's not like it's hard to hit in the AL East.

No, but he goes from one of the best divisions to one of the least competitive. I'm not saying it's gonna make him a superstar, but a slight bump in numbers wouldn't surprise me.

 

That isn't a slight bump. And again, he's a hitter. It's not hard to hit in the AL East. A pitcher might benefit from never having to face the Yankees and Red Sox, but both of those teams throw out their fair share of mediocre pitching.

[SouthSideRyan]

Pena hasn't spent any significant time hurt. He spent half of '05 in the minors cause the Tigers demoted him, then signed a couply minor league contracts with the Yankees and Boston in '06.

 

I thought he was banged up one of those years.

 

604 PAs one year, 543 the next. None of the minor league time on rehab stints.

[jersey cubs fan]

Pena hasn't spent any significant time hurt. He spent half of '05 in the minors cause the Tigers demoted him, then signed a couply minor league contracts with the Yankees and Boston in '06.

 

I thought he was banged up one of those years.

 

604 PAs one year, 543 the next. None of the minor league time on rehab stints.

 

Well then my memory is worse than I thought. He's just an inconsistent SOB. Hopefully he's got a decent year left in him.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Well done Hendry.

 

Now get Webb and swing the trade for Davis/O'Day without getting raped and I might actually watch more than five games next year.

[Reaper]

This move could be really good if Pena is healed up.