Colvin to start taking grounders at 1B

[lumafia]

I know how hitting works. It doesn't change the fact that he has a huge problem with making a whole bunch of outs rather frequently and not walking. He turns 25 in a couple weeks with all sorts of big time college and professional experience and it's still a major problem. His perfect mechanics hasn't come close to getting him past the hurdle that was always going to be the biggest obstacle to him being a quality major league hitter.

 

I never said he mechanics were perfect. I even took the time to point out at least a couple of mechanical flaws in my original post. I agree that there are some issues. My original post was designed to point out that his biggest problems don't appear to be mechanical. It was my hope that posting the details about my observations would limit the amount of time I would need defending a comment as simple as "His problems don't appear to be mechanical". Apparently, that wasn't the case. I should have known better.

[flyseye]

David Kelton supposedly had an immaculate swing that should not be touched by coaches, and he sucked donkey balls.

 

I read hundreds ( not hyperbole, hundreds ) of posts about how Kelton ( and Choi and Bobby Hill etc ) were the future of the Cubs, but I do not recall a single post proclaiming he had an untouchable immaculate swing, or anything of the sort. Colvin has already achieved far more than David Kelton, and to compare them is inaccurate at best. Colvin may well fizzle out, but at equal points in their careers Colvin shows much more promise than David Kelton, who OPS'ed .750 in his last two seasons in Iowa. In fairness to Kelton, injuries didnt help.

[shnsajax]

David Kelton supposedly had an immaculate swing that should not be touched by coaches, and he sucked donkey balls.

 

I read hundreds ( not hyperbole, hundreds ) of posts about how Kelton ( and Choi and Bobby Hill etc ) were the future of the Cubs, but I do not recall a single post proclaiming he had an untouchable immaculate swing, or anything of the sort. Colvin has already achieved far more than David Kelton, and to compare them is inaccurate at best. Colvin may well fizzle out, but at equal points in their careers Colvin shows much more promise than David Kelton, who OPS'ed .750 in his last two seasons in Iowa. In fairness to Kelton, injuries didnt help.

 

There were lots of reports on how the Cubs loved Kelton's swing and didn't want coaches messing with it through out the minors.

[KaiserCesar]

The only real timeframe you can call 'terrible' for Colvin is his August

 

OPS by month (PA's in parentheses)

April/March - .965 (53)

May - 1.033 (30)

June - .780 (75)

July - .857 (106)

August - .555 (60)

 

His K rate has been pretty steady in the high 20's and May actually featured his highest rate. So, basically, the success fluctuates with the number of home runs he hits, for now. While his HR/FB ratio is high, I don't know if the idea that his home runs are covering up the fact that he's bad properly puts him in proper perspective.

 

It'll be interesting to see how the last month plays out for him and if he can show improvement in his K/BB and maintain his power. I think there's a good case to be optimistic about a .800 ops rookie who won't be arb eligible until 2013.

[questionmarkgrace]

The only real timeframe you can call 'terrible' for Colvin is his August

 

OPS by month (PA's in parentheses)

April/March - .965 (53)

May - 1.033 (30)

June - .780 (75)

July - .857 (106)

August - .555 (60)

 

His K rate has been pretty steady in the high 20's and May actually featured his highest rate. So, basically, the success fluctuates with the number of home runs he hits, for now. While his HR/FB ratio is high, I don't know if the idea that his home runs are covering up the fact that he's bad properly puts him in proper perspective.

 

It'll be interesting to see how the last month plays out for him and if he can show improvement in his K/BB and maintain his power. I think there's a good case to be optimistic about a .800 ops rookie who won't be arb eligible until 2013.

 

Also I think we can attribute at least some of his recent dip in performance to fatigue since he has never played this many games before. He's been injured almost every year since we drafted him.

[Guest]

Also I think we can attribute at least some of his recent dip in performance to fatigue since he has never played this many games before. He's been injured almost every year since we drafted him.

 

2007: 125 games, 519 PA

2008: 137 games, 602 PA

2009: 116 games, 459 PA

 

2010: 114 games, 329 PA

[jersey cubs fan]

David Kelton supposedly had an immaculate swing that should not be touched by coaches, and he sucked donkey balls.

 

I read hundreds ( not hyperbole, hundreds ) of posts about how Kelton ( and Choi and Bobby Hill etc ) were the future of the Cubs, but I do not recall a single post proclaiming he had an untouchable immaculate swing, or anything of the sort. Colvin has already achieved far more than David Kelton, and to compare them is inaccurate at best. Colvin may well fizzle out, but at equal points in their careers Colvin shows much more promise than David Kelton, who OPS'ed .750 in his last two seasons in Iowa. In fairness to Kelton, injuries didnt help.

 

If you read anything about Kelton you read about his swing.

[questionmarkgrace]

Also I think we can attribute at least some of his recent dip in performance to fatigue since he has never played this many games before. He's been injured almost every year since we drafted him.

 

2007: 125 games, 519 PA

2008: 137 games, 602 PA

2009: 116 games, 459 PA

 

2010: 114 games, 329 PA

 

I stand corrected. I thought he had a major injury like an elbow or shoulder problem? Maybe he just played through it.

 

 

Also wasn't he supposed to play first in this series? Or did Quade nix that idea?

[risico]

Guys, can we get off OPS for a second? It's an alright stat but it's not really well-conceived.

 

Tyler Colvin is great at making outs. That's a huge problem. His .350 wOBA is fairly average, especially from a corner OF spot.

 

That's with a huge HR/FB rate, a huge swinging strike rate, and a huge K rate. To me, the numbers right now don't show that he's a good player and the peripherals certainly don't show that things are going to get better.

[NCCubFan]

Also I think we can attribute at least some of his recent dip in performance to fatigue since he has never played this many games before. He's been injured almost every year since we drafted him.

 

2007: 125 games, 519 PA

2008: 137 games, 602 PA

2009: 116 games, 459 PA

 

2010: 114 games, 329 PA

 

I stand corrected. I thought he had a major injury like an elbow or shoulder problem? Maybe he just played through it.

 

 

Also wasn't he supposed to play first in this series? Or did Quade nix that idea?

He had TJS during the off-season before 2009, but I don't think he really missed any time. He just played DH for a while if I recall. Position players don't take as long as pitchers to return. And yes, Quade did nix the 1B idea (at least for now).

[Irrelevant Dude]

This is not very well researched and may be widely shot down, but is Tyler Colvin just a left-handed version of Soriano?

 

Colvin: .255, 19 HR, 48 RBI, 4-5 SB, 302 AB, 88 K, .827 OPS

Soriano: .261, 20 HR, 65 RBI, 5-6 SB, 394 AB, 100 K, .830 OPS

 

I do like Colvin, but I'm not sure there is a place for both of these guys in the same lineup, especially right next to each other in the order. They will hit their share of home runs, but also make an awful lot of unproductive outs. I'm not opposed to the idea of Colvin taking grounders at 1B so that he can become a more well-rounded super-sub, but I have a hard time envisioning long-term success with him and Soriano hitting 5-6 or 6-7 in the lineup.

[lumafia]

This is not very well researched and may be widely shot down, but is Tyler Colvin just a left-handed version of Soriano?

 

Colvin: .255, 19 HR, 48 RBI, 4-5 SB, 302 AB, 88 K, .827 OPS

Soriano: .261, 20 HR, 65 RBI, 5-6 SB, 394 AB, 100 K, .830 OPS

 

I do like Colvin, but I'm not sure there is a place for both of these guys in the same lineup, especially right next to each other in the order. They will hit their share of home runs, but also make an awful lot of unproductive outs. I'm not opposed to the idea of Colvin taking grounders at 1B so that he can become a more well-rounded super-sub, but I have a hard time envisioning long-term success with him and Soriano hitting 5-6 or 6-7 in the lineup.

 

If Colvin is able to maintain his current production, which is the big question, than he is worth it based on the money he is currently making. He's obviously not worth what Soriano is making, nobody is.

[MSG T]

This is not very well researched and may be widely shot down, but is Tyler Colvin just a left-handed version of Soriano?

 

Colvin: .255, 19 HR, 48 RBI, 4-5 SB, 302 AB, 88 K, .827 OPS

Soriano: .261, 20 HR, 65 RBI, 5-6 SB, 394 AB, 100 K, .830 OPS

 

I do like Colvin, but I'm not sure there is a place for both of these guys in the same lineup, especially right next to each other in the order. They will hit their share of home runs, but also make an awful lot of unproductive outs. I'm not opposed to the idea of Colvin taking grounders at 1B so that he can become a more well-rounded super-sub, but I have a hard time envisioning long-term success with him and Soriano hitting 5-6 or 6-7 in the lineup.

 

The biggest problem I have with that comparison, and I'm not saying it's necessarily wrong, is that Soriano is right at his career norms in OBP and SLG. That means he's doing exactly what he'd be expected to do, granted he's probably going to be going down the for the rest of his career.

 

Who knows what Colvin's norms are. He could actually be what he's shown the last 2-3 months, what he showed the first couple of months or something else. Until he has a substantial number of PAs, we won't know. But, given his MiL numbers and what he's good and bad at, I'm not sure he'll be able to replicate what Soriano has done in his career.

[Elrhino]

Guys, can we get off OPS for a second? It's an alright stat but it's not really well-conceived.

 

It's especially troublesome when it doesn't fit your pre-existing bias on a player.

[jersey cubs fan]

Guys, can we get off OPS for a second? It's an alright stat but it's not really well-conceived.

 

It's especially troublesome when it doesn't fit your pre-existing bias on a player.

 

Or when it's propped up by SLG and has a really bad OBP.

[flyseye]

Guys, can we get off OPS for a second? It's an alright stat but it's not really well-conceived.

 

It's especially troublesome when it doesn't fit your pre-existing bias on a player.

 

Or when it's propped up by SLG and has a really bad OBP.

 

Like Soriano's lifetime stats ?

[XZero771679666304]

Guys, can we get off OPS for a second? It's an alright stat but it's not really well-conceived.

 

It's especially troublesome when it doesn't fit your pre-existing bias on a player.

 

Or when it's propped up by SLG and has a really bad OBP.

 

Like Soriano's lifetime stats ?

 

Except Sori's lifetime OBP is higher than Colvin's, and Sori's SLG isn't also propped up by an unsustainable HR/FB rate.

[ScrubMD]

Guys, can we get off OPS for a second? It's an alright stat but it's not really well-conceived.

 

It's especially troublesome when it doesn't fit your pre-existing bias on a player.

 

Or when it's propped up by SLG and has a really bad OBP.

 

Like Soriano's lifetime stats ?

 

Except Sori's lifetime OBP is higher than Colvin's, and Sori's SLG isn't also propped up by an unsustainable HR/FB rate.

 

Colvin's OBP is only .012 lower than Soriano's career OBP. However, Colvin's IsoD is .059 while Soriano's career IsoD is .049. Soriano's first full season he was 8 months older than Colvin and had an OPS of .736 with a .304 OBP and .036 IsoD. The only thing separating Colvin's 2010 numbers and Soriano's career numbers is a few points of BA driven OBP.

 

He seems incredibly comparable to Soriano, only with better patience and what will most likely turn out to be less power. I'd expect his power numbers to come down somewhat, but I'd also expect his BA to be a bit higher going forward. So if he can keep his IsoD where it is (or hopefully increase it a bit) he'll be a productive player. Not one I would pay $18m a year for, but one I'd like to have around for cheap.

[XZero771679666304]

]

 

Colvin's OBP is only .012 lower than Soriano's career OBP. However, Colvin's IsoD is .059 while Soriano's career IsoD is .049. Soriano's first full season he was 8 months older than Colvin and had an OPS of .736 with a .304 OBP and .036 IsoD. The only thing separating Colvin's 2010 numbers and Soriano's career numbers is a few points of BA driven OBP.

 

He seems incredibly comparable to Soriano, only with better patience and what will most likely turn out to be less power. I'd expect his power numbers to come down somewhat, but I'd also expect his BA to be a bit higher going forward. So if he can keep his IsoD where it is (or hopefully increase it a bit) he'll be a productive player. Not one I would pay $18m a year for, but one I'd like to have around for cheap.

 

All of this is true. However, if Colvin's hr rate comes down (as it almost certainly will), and pitchers start to exploit his glaring weaknesses (as often happens as a book gets out on a player), we could see some pathetic numbers.

 

Soriano's innate physical ability has allowed him to partially overcome his pitch recognition and discipline problems. I don't think Tyler has that luxury.

 

Colvin could be good going forward, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him post a sub-.700 OPS in a full season, either. Regardless, counting on him as and everyday player at an offense first position would be ill advised at best, and a catastrophe at worst.

[Elrhino]

Gosh, I hope Colvin doesn't tailspin to finish out the year by hitting a lot of homers, because that will only make his OPS even more SLG lopsided and skyrocket his HR/FB ratio. I know that HR/FB stat has a lot of intrinsic value because an interwebbings blog where all the cool kids hang out at told me so.

[risico]

Seriously, Colvin is an OK hitter, but if you want to combine SLG and OBP in a way that makes absolutely no sense and use it as a valid statistic, go ahead.

 

Soriano has never really been a guy who hits the ball into the ground. Groundball rates back that up if you look at his batted-ball stats. Colvin, on the other hand, is hitting it on the ground more than 45% of the time. He's making outs by hitting the ball on the ground and whiffing - a lot. His strikeout rate is higher than Soriano's was in the worst season of his career.

 

His insane HR/FB rate is propping up his slugging numbers right now. If that continues, fine, he's a slightly above-average hitter with a lot of power who still makes a ton of outs. If it regresses to a more normal rate, then Colvin is a 4th or 5th outfielder at best.

 

Stop with the Soriano comps. Colvin is soon to be 25. One has proven himself over time while the other is young and seems to have some skills and some flaws. For every guy like Soriano there are guys like Francoeur who didn't pan out because of similar flaws.

[XZero771679666304]

Gosh, I hope Colvin doesn't tailspin to finish out the year by hitting a lot of homers, because that will only make his OPS even more SLG lopsided and skyrocket his HR/FB ratio. I know that HR/FB stat has a lot of intrinsic value because an interwebbings blog where all the cool kids hang out at told me so.

 

Yeah, it'll be great when he does and the Cubs give him a starting job for 2011, and word gets out that you don't have to throw him strikes to get him out, and we're stuck with a corner regular with a .650 OPS.

 

The homers are encouraging. The fact he looks utterly overmatched at the plate most of the time isn't. No one is saying he's doomed, but he has a lot of red flags. Unlike Starlin Castro, it's too soon to hand him anything without a solid contingency in place.

[Rob]

Guys, can we get off OPS for a second? It's an alright stat but it's not really well-conceived.

 

It's especially troublesome when it doesn't fit your pre-existing bias on a player.

 

Or when it's propped up by SLG and has a really bad OBP.

 

Like Soriano's lifetime stats ?

 

Except Sori's lifetime OBP is higher than Colvin's, and Sori's SLG isn't also propped up by an unsustainable HR/FB rate.

 

In defense of Colvin, his HR/FB rate is probably due for regression, but he hasn't exactly been getting lucky here. He's earned that rate so far this year.

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/parks/Colvin_Tyler_2010_scatter.jpg

 

He probably isn't about to join the upper echelon of power hitters like his current rate would suggest, but this is an extremely positive sign from a young player entering his prime years.

[XZero771679666304]

That's a part that encourages me - when he hits homers, he really hits them. If he were hitting wall scrapers, it would be a lot easier to discount what he is doing. Still, virtually all of his offensive value is in his homers, and they are very likely to decrease.

[Sammy Sofa]

That's a part that encourages me - when he hits homers, he really hits them. If he were hitting wall scrapers, it would be a lot easier to discount what he is doing. Still, virtually all of his offensive value is in his homers, and they are very likely to decrease.

 

Yeah, that's what's key for me, too. It's nice that when he hits a homer he usually clobbers the hell out of it, but that really isn't impacting the rest of the game unless they start awarding two runs for home runs hit really hard. Jake Fox beat the holy hell out of the ball when he'd knock it out of the park and he typically looked like a hot mess the rest of the time at the plate. Not saying that Colvin is Fox, but when you have a hitter whose value right now is seemingly locked up in an unsustainable home run rate and nothing else, it's not terribly encouraging.

Edited August 26, 2010 by Sammy Sofa