Hendry NOT looking to rebuild Cubs

[Outshined_One]

Oh I don't doubt that for a second. My guess is something like adding a veteran reliever, getting rid of Zambrano and Fukudome, resigning Lilly, and then finding a platoon partner for Hoffpauir at 1st.

 

I agree with you on all of that except the last part. I have little doubt in my mind Hendry is going to re-sign Derrek Lee.

[Tyrant]

I don't know if it would look great for Hendrys future if he came out and said that the team he put together needs a massive rebuilding job. No way he's going say that.

[dew1679666265]

But second base is one of the few positions we could upgrade, and it looks like we'll go into next season simply hoping DeWitt develops more power as opposed to looking for something more significant.

 

Who's out there for us to pursue? The second base free agent market is pretty awful, though I don't know who might be had in a trade. DeWitt is probably the best option at second (or a Fontenot/somebody platoon).

 

As for the pitching, there's really nothing the Cubs really excel at, besides strikeouts. They walk a lot of batters and give up a lot of hits. I don't know what their FIP or xFIP numbers are, but they'd have to be pretty outstanding for me to consider the staff as a whole nothing more than mediocre.

 

The Cubs starters are 10th in the majors in xFIP at 4.13, third in K/9 and 8th in K/BB. However, the relievers are 22nd in the majors in xFIP at 4.44. Overall we're 14th in xFIP – top half of the league. The staff isn't fantastic, but the starters are very good and certainly nowhere near the worst in the league.

 

That said, you're right that the pitching isn't significantly better than the hitting. However, the Cubs' offense is better than you characterized. The Cubs offense's wOBA is 16th in the majors, right smack in the middle.

[rawaction]

But second base is one of the few positions we could upgrade, and it looks like we'll go into next season simply hoping DeWitt develops more power as opposed to looking for something more significant.

 

Who's out there for us to pursue? The second base free agent market is pretty awful, though I don't know who might be had in a trade. DeWitt is probably the best option at second (or a Fontenot/somebody platoon).

 

 

Brian Roberts?

[Irrelevant Dude]

With the contracts on this team, there is only so much "rebuilding" that can take place. I'm fine with more of a "slow disassembly" of bad contracts over the next few seasons.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I don't know if it would look great for Hendrys future if he came out and said that the team he put together needs a massive rebuilding job. No way he's going say that.

True, but his past moves don't look great for his future either... and yet he is still here.

[dew1679666265]

But second base is one of the few positions we could upgrade, and it looks like we'll go into next season simply hoping DeWitt develops more power as opposed to looking for something more significant.

 

Who's out there for us to pursue? The second base free agent market is pretty awful, though I don't know who might be had in a trade. DeWitt is probably the best option at second (or a Fontenot/somebody platoon).

 

 

Brian Roberts?

 

I don't know that I'm real interested in a 33 year old second baseman due to make $10 million a year through 2013 (he'll be 35 during that season) who is battling injuries this season and, in limited PAs, has a .673 OPS. He also has no trade protection next year and a full NTC in 2012, so if we trade for him we'll have to keep him at least until 2013.

 

Plus, Angelos wanted a few arms and legs for him two years ago (or whenever that was). I wonder how much he'll drop his demands now.

[Guest]

It would take talent and money for a moderate upgrade at 2b when you consider the injury potential with Roberts. I'd rather see them stick with DeWitt for cheap and hope he starts producing in his prime years (next 3 years).

[dew1679666265]

It would take talent and money for a moderate upgrade at 2b when you consider the injury potential with Roberts. I'd rather see them stick with DeWitt for cheap and hope he starts producing in his prime years (next 3 years).

 

That's what I'm thinking. I like DeWitt well enough, but I start liking him a lot more when I think about giving up good, young talent for minor upgrades (if at all).

 

If somebody like Dan Uggla or someone similar comes available at a fairly reasonable price, however, I'd be very interested.

[Dallas Green]

Oh I don't doubt that for a second. My guess is something like adding a veteran reliever, getting rid of Zambrano and Fukudome, resigning Lilly, and then finding a platoon partner for Hoffpauir at 1st.

 

I agree with you on all of that except the last part. I have little doubt in my mind Hendry is going to re-sign Derrek Lee.

 

 

NO way, there is not a chance Hendry would bring back Lee, just based alone on the fact he tried to trade him. Why would Hendry upset Lee by trying to move him if he had any intention of bringing him back?, besides they know he is about done, from injuries or age.

 

Can see him adding a 2/3 type starter for now, and approaching TR for an ace if in contention at deadline

Trying to trade for Gonzalez, or going after C Pena

Moving Fukudome/Zambrano

 

Would it be a shock to see him kick the tires on Beltran or Sizemore?

[squally1313]

WARNING: Really long, somewhat rambling post ahead. Didn't have a whole lot going on while I was waiting to watch Lincecum. Read at your own risk...

 

Another thing you have to think about when considering blowing up the team is the division that we play in. Outside of the Cardinals, we're competing against 4 small budget teams. The Reds could be an offensive force for a while, but let's wait to see what Dusty does to their arms during this pennant race before penciling them in as a contender for the next few years. Brewers/Pirates/Astros don't concern me, and you have to wonder how much money the Cardinals can afford to spend. The fact that all these new contracts have so much deferred money might show how tight cash is already, and they're still looking at having to sign one of the biggest contracts of all time for Pujols, especially after Ryan Howard's contract (hometown discount or not, can you really see Albert taking less than $25 a year?).

 

I know we've been playing awful lately, but I do really believe we've already improved the future of this team throughout the year, especially up the middle. Castro is obviously an upgrade, and could potentially provide cheap, above-average production at a premium position for a long time. DeWitt's projected .340 wOBA for the rest of the year is a massive improvement over the .287 wOBA we've put up from that position so far this year. To stay in the infield, hopefully with Lou gone next season we can bring up a backup catcher from the couple we have raking in the minors to replace Koyie Hill's stellar .477 OPS.

 

The Cub's center field production (.360 wOBA) has been good for 4th best in baseball this year, with Byrd posting a .369 wOBA. Looking at his peripherals, his .346 BABIP is 20 points above his career average, and doesn't really line up with his 18% LD percentage and increased groundball rate. So you can expect some regression there, but at $5.5 next year and $6.5 in 2012, he's either relatively cheap above average production or attractive trade bait. If you think it's at all possible to go after Crawford, trade Byrd and hope either Crawford or Colvin can play an adequate center field. As for Colvin, assuming he doesn't hit a wall the rest of the year, I don't see how you can't give him a starting job next season. Finally, you can talk all you want about Soriano, but he's not going anywhere.

 

With Ramirez not looking like he's going to opt out, you just have to hope he continues to bounce back, while planning for the likely chance he will miss a good portion of the season. Admittedly, it took me a long time to find someone that could fit the bill, but I'd go after Uribe in the offseason for a backup infield job. He can play third, short, and second (though he's probably eaten his way out of short) and his numbers this year .253/.319/.446, essentially league average, look legit when you look at his peripherals. At first, go after Dunn, but if it doesn't work out create a platoon of Hoff/Nady/etc, or give someone like Berkman a one year deal and wait till the next year.

 

Really, our number one focus has to be starting pitching this offseason, particularly a top of the rotation type guy. While we've been above average in that area, losing Lilly hurts. Dempster isn't getting any younger, and the starters we have in the majors right now don't project as much more than middle of the rotation inning eaters, which honestly I don't mind while we wait for Cashner/Jackson/Carpenter/Archer/etc. Cliff Lee should be the number one priority, but I wouldn't overlook guys like Jorge De La Rosa if Lee gets really pricy, which he probably will. Our pen has been a disaster, but most research has shown that's it's pretty much a crapshoot, and I'm not all that concerned about it. Guzman comes back healthy next year, and a Gooz/Marshall/Marmol back of the pen should be more than enough to cover anyone else. It's just a matter of Hendry not using our funds on a reliever.

 

Sorry for the short novel....really bored. But honestly, Ramirez comes back at full strength, or at least 90% of what he used to be, and we're not in bad shape offensively. DeWitt/Castro should only improve, Soto should get more at bats under a new manager, and first base hopefully won't be a black hole. Starting pitching....ideally you start out the year with Lee/Demp/Gorz/Cash/Wells(or Diamond), but we should have young arms coming up soon that can fill spots if it doesn't work out that way. I'm not expecting a team that would be able to contend in the AL East next year, but I don't see it being that hard to win our division, and try and get hot in the playoffs.

[biittner77]

I don't see where next year's situation is so bleak that "rebuilding" is necessary. Consider these factors:

 

I'm too lazy to look it up but the Cubs are about 500 against teams that aren't the Astros and Pirates and about 15 under against 2 of the worst teams in the league. Had they at least played those bad teams at .500 they'd still be in the race. Neither of those teams nor the Brewers look to be getting much better next year.

 

The Reds pitching this year has been pretty good. Anybody think that they can stay healthy after Dusty gets through with them this year? Teams that gain a bunch of games in the standings tend to give them back the next year.

 

That leaves the Cards who will have Pujols, Wainright and Carpenter and really little else. That may be enough but they aren't exactly the 27 Yankees.

 

The Cubs pen should be better now that a lot of the young arms they broke in this year have more experience. The rotation has been pretty good for the most part. Assuming the new manager isn't dumb enough to bench Soto for Koyie fricking Hill the Cubs will get above avaerage production from Catcher and SS. Dewitt ought to be able to outperform what Theriot did at 2nd.

[Sammy Sofa]

With the contracts on this team, there is only so much "rebuilding" that can take place. I'm fine with more of a "slow disassembly" of bad contracts over the next few seasons.

 

That seems like an unnecessary waste of time.

[SouthSideRyan]

Oh, and to respond to the part earlier about the Cubs needing Cliff Lee + Adrian Gonzalez + 2 more good players to contend.

 

The 2006 Cubs won 66 games, and added nobody close to Lee or Gonzalez's levels. They only won 85 games, which isn't enough pretty much any year, but it's not as dire as some people are trying to make it out to be.

[XZero771679666304]

This team is bad, but not the train wreck the record indicates. Many factors went into this mess. There is enough talent here to contend in 2011 with only a handful of moves made.

 

Now will Jim Hendry make the right moves? I don't have much faith.

[Magnetic Curses]

This team is bad, but not the train wreck the record indicates. Many factors went into this mess. There is enough talent here to contend in 2011 with only a handful of moves made.

 

Now will Jim Hendry make the right moves? I don't have much faith.

 

i could live with minimal changes to the lineup, but signing lee and webb.

 

shift sori to first and plug colvin in in left and see what happens.

[RynoRules]

I'd go after Lee and Dunn, trade Fukudome and Zambrano (for Carlos Beltran?), use Colvin as my 4th OF'er and cross my fingers.

[lumafia]

The Cubs would be exercising a tremendous amount of faith if they just make a couple of moves during the offseason. Byrd is having the 2nd best season of his career at age 32. Is it reasonable for him to maintain those numbers? Is it reasonable to expect Castro and Colvin to maintain their production as the league figures them out? In addition to those things happening, you would also need to expect Ramirez to bounce back, even though his production has been on a steady decline since 2004. You would also have to expect Soto to repeat his career year. Also, Carlos Silva would need to repeat, or come close to, the numbers he put up this year as a 31 year old, which are his best since 2005. Oh....I almost forgot. Gorzelanny and Marshall would need to repeat the best years of their career. AND, you would need Dempster to maintain his numbers at 34 years old. AND, you would be expecting Soriano's numbers not to decline, even though he will be 35 years old.

 

Pretty much anything you do at 1B and 2B (already improved with Dewitt) would be an improvement, but if you are the GM, you have to plan for some of these guys who have had career years to regress. If not, next year's team could be worse than this year's team. I'm not advocating a complete overhaul, but in order to compete, the Cubs need to clear enough payroll to get 2 top of the rotation starters, a top tier 1B and a couple of good bullpen guys. And you would need these things in addition to the current group maintaining or improving upon their current production. Sounds like pretty wishful thinking.

[SouthSideRyan]

So is it your belief that this team is in worse shape than the 2006 team?

[jersey cubs fan]

So is it your belief that this team is in worse shape than the 2006 team?

 

That's a tough call. The 2006 team probably had more god awful players, but they also had prime or near prime Zambrano, Lee and Ramirez plus some other useful players. They had a questionable pitching staff but a number of quality arms, some of which disappeared or changed roles. And of course they also had a nearly unprecedented ability to take on more payroll in that offseason. So the quality of the roster was probably overall a little worse, but with a much better position to add to the team.

[SouthSideRyan]

So is it your belief that this team is in worse shape than the 2006 team?

 

That's a tough call. The 2006 team probably had more god awful players, but they also had prime or near prime Zambrano, Lee and Ramirez plus some other useful players. They had a questionable pitching staff but a number of quality arms, some of which disappeared or changed roles. And of course they also had a nearly unprecedented ability to take on more payroll in that offseason. So the quality of the roster was probably overall a little worse, but with a much better position to add to the team.

 

I'm not talking about ability to add to the team. I'm talking on a pure talent level. When somebody says we need to add 2 top-line starters, a top tier 1B and good bullpen arms, all while nobody declines in order to be contender, that tells me they think this team is far worse off than '06.

[KingCubsFan]

So is it your belief that this team is in worse shape than the 2006 team?

 

That's a tough call. The 2006 team probably had more god awful players, but they also had prime or near prime Zambrano, Lee and Ramirez plus some other useful players. They had a questionable pitching staff but a number of quality arms, some of which disappeared or changed roles. And of course they also had a nearly unprecedented ability to take on more payroll in that offseason. So the quality of the roster was probably overall a little worse, but with a much better position to add to the team.

 

I'm not talking about ability to add to the team. I'm talking on a pure talent level. When somebody says we need to add 2 top-line starters, a top tier 1B and good bullpen arms, all while nobody declines in order to be contender, that tells me they think this team is far worse off than '06.

The 2007 team only won 85 games though, and that probably won't be enough to beat the Cardinals and Reds. And outside of the starting pitching, I don't think this team has much of an edge over the 2006 team.

[Eric Clipperton]

The system looks way stronger than in 2006, so I'm hopeful even though the salaries are somewhat burdensome.

I'd like to see:

Gonzales or Dunn at 1b

Dewitt or platoon including him at 2b

Starlin (start looking into locking him down? 9/60 or something is the type of gamble the cubs should be making to use their gigantic budget, not ridiculous 10-18mm/yr fa deals at every hole.

Assume aramis will not opt out unless he's got niemi's agent. He'll be fine.

Soriano, Byrd, olivine/fuku- if you can dump fukudome and add a cheap platoon option top-end defender in CF to the of group, that could work? I'm not expecting much from colvin but you know he'll get every chance to improve. The outfield is fine just nothing great, Esp. at the price. If the cubs would use their of guys correctly, their #s would look a bit better but Lou is doing an even worse job than his typical mediocre lineups and player usage.

 

Out of Z, demp, silva?, gorz, cashner, jjax, diamond, marshall, hell I forgot wells there are so many potential avgish starters...rotation is fine and good if we add a top starter like lee...but he seems like a pipe dream probably. The real issue is the team's wasting of assets by moving guys into stupid roles and having #6 starters all around the place... Trade guys rather than throwing them for 60ip in relief. There's a fair number of relief options sitting around the system, just don't freak out and sign bad relievers to fill some idiotic role. Grabow et. al.

 

But hey it's the COBS!

 

If koyie hill is on the team next year i will show up at wrigley with multiple Hank white themed posters every day until koyie is demoted due to the distraction caused by the blanco fan club showing up on tv every day with jokes directed at hill and his multiyear stint of backup c suckitude. Castillo, clevenger, I don't even care if you call up michael [expletive] brenly. As long as soto plays 130+ games and never is removed for koyie hill in late innings.

If you're not going to use soto all the time...trade him. Could be huge return, which shows you that he should probably get way more pt.

 

Don't sign prince fielder. No matter what.

 

Rant over for now...the cubs are bad enough to make me laugh this year, but the management is bad enough that I worry for further sabotage of the kind of promising near future...

 

If Castro ends up fulfilling his promise yet his "era" ends up an overall waste of his talent and production, it would be a damn shame. Just like the cubs' Maddux era...

[jersey cubs fan]

Soriano, Byrd, olivine/fuku- if you can dump fukudome and add a cheap platoon option top-end defender in CF to the of group, that could work? I'm not expecting much from colvin but you know he'll get every chance to improve. The outfield is fine just nothing great, Esp. at the price.

 

Are you saying the OF is cheap? They have more than $37m dedicated to next year's OF, if they dump Fukudome but pay a chunk of his salary and sign a cheap platoon guy they could go even higher. That's pretty expensive for a non special OF.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

What's a olivine?