Re: Wow Castro

[davearm2]

Look as we all know, OPS is OBP *plus* SLG.

 

The fact that these two metrics are being treated as additive implies they are of equal marginal value.

 

That is incorrect. 1 point of OBP has a higher marginal value than 1 point of SLG.

 

Therefore, there's an inherent flaw in OPS. Which I believe is the original point being made.

 

Now if there was some stat out there that was the sum of SLG and SB%, or one that was ERA + Balk%, then you'd have a valid point.

 

Nitpick: OPS isn't a statistic. It's a metric.

If there's a meaningful distinction between the two, I'm at a loss to identify it.

[risico]

Castro is now playing at a 4 WAR pace, has moved into the top 5 in SS wOBA, and is nearly into the top 5 in SS UZR. Obviously things are going to look the best at the peak of the hot streak, but he can still regress a bit and still be a 3 win player, at age 20.

 

Well, 1 season's worth of UZR isn't really telling, as that model can have a lot of variability from year to year. But yes, I do think Castro is a good defender at SS.

 

He is great at making contact, that's for sure. The thing about the Jeter comps. is that Jeter always had a good walk rate and was particularly good at getting himself on base. So far Castro hasn't shown that, but he's very young so I expect him to figure that out eventually.

 

And OBP should be more weighted than SLG because of the expected run values of a BB, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, and out. Here's a good thread: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/why_does_17obpslg_make_sense/

[pitchcs]

Castro is now playing at a 4 WAR pace, has moved into the top 5 in SS wOBA, and is nearly into the top 5 in SS UZR. Obviously things are going to look the best at the peak of the hot streak, but he can still regress a bit and still be a 3 win player, at age 20.

 

Well, 1 season's worth of UZR isn't really telling, as that model can have a lot of variability from year to year. But yes, I do think Castro is a good defender at SS.

 

He is great at making contact, that's for sure. The thing about the Jeter comps. is that Jeter always had a good walk rate and was particularly good at getting himself on base. So far Castro hasn't shown that, but he's very young so I expect him to figure that out eventually.

 

And OBP should be more weighted than SLG because of the expected run values of a BB, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, and out. Here's a good thread: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/why_does_17obpslg_make_sense/

 

 

But it's not like he's been bad either .307/.359 and that's with zero BB in his last 17 (!) games...presumably because he's been hitting so well.

[risico]

Well, his walk rate is below the major league average.

 

But his K rate is low and he doesn't seem particularly prone to chasing pitches. If he's not whiffing a lot now, he won't do it much over the course of his career. I think that's an encouraging sign. It shows that he's disciplined at the plate and he's not going up there looking to hit anything the pitcher tosses him. With that in mind, I believe the walks will come when he learns to battle with pitchers and learns how the major league umpires interpret the strike zone.

 

I don't know that he'll ever put up the numbers that Jeter put up in the late 90s, but few shortstops ever do. Jeter put up 3 consecutive years of a .385+ wOBA. He put up seasons of 6.5 and 7.5 WAR while playing mediocre defense. He was a really good hitter.

 

That all said, Castro is going to be better defensively than Jeter and will more than hold his own at the plate. I think he'll be able to put up at least a few seasons of 5+ WAR, which puts him in elite territory among major league shortstops.

[TruffleShuffle]

i wonder where he would've been ranked on prospect lists after this season if he stayed in AA/AAA and then came up in september and raked. probably top 5?

[risico]

I will say, this is a terrible year to be a ROY candidate.

[CubsWin]

I will say, this is a terrible year to be a ROY candidate.

I know. Posey, Strasburg, Garcia and Heyward would all be shoe-ins any other year. It's like the Marino QB draft class.

[SouthSideRyan]

I will say, this is a terrible year to be a ROY candidate.

I know. Posey, Strasburg, Garcia and Heyward would all be shoe-ins any other year. It's like the Marino QB draft class.

 

I don't think Heyward would deserve the last 6 NL ROY awards. Strasburg on the DL would probably torpedo his chances those years too

[javy knows my name]

It HAS to be Posey's to lose, right? RIGHT?

[Post Count Padder]

I will say, this is a terrible year to be a ROY candidate.

I know. Posey, Strasburg, Garcia and Heyward would all be shoe-ins any other year. It's like the Marino QB draft class.

Aren't as many options in the AL. Jackson and Boesch are the only ones coming to mind.

[Maclowery]

It HAS to be Posey's to lose, right? RIGHT?

 

Is there a subjective minimum to games played/pitched for ROY candidacy? Posey and Strasburg have gaudier numbers than Heyward and Garcia, but have logged significantly less playing time.

 

Strasburg will probably be the biggest star of the four, but has less than half of Garcia's starts. I figure Stras will win a few more games, Garcia will have a couple of >3ER games, and Strasburg gets it due to massive hype and name recognition. If Posey plays the rest of the season out, he could hit, what, 350 plate appearances, and a 950 ops would possibly get it to him, also.

 

Man, what a headache! To think Castro and Colvin, both having awesomely awesome first seasons, could be the 5th and 6th best rookies in the NL this year.

[risico]

Hell, Tyler Colvin would be a decent ROY candidate in a normal year. Not many rookies post a .376 wOBA and those ridiculous power numbers (.285 ISO).

[carolinacubbie]

I will say, this is a terrible year to be a ROY candidate.

I know. Posey, Strasburg, Garcia and Heyward would all be shoe-ins any other year. It's like the Marino QB draft class.

Aren't as many options in the AL. Jackson and Boesch are the only ones coming to mind.

 

Carlos Santana has a shot too I guess. Who's been the best rookie pitcher in the AL?

[Tryptamine]

Neftali Feliz?

[davell]

Neftali Feliz?

 

 

And Brennan Boesch.

[Shilzzz]

the year really has been incredible for rookies with bright futures in the nl

jose tabata

pedro alvarez

dominic brown

mike stanton

logan morrison

ike davis

josh thole (not sure how highly regarded he was)

mat latos (i know he pitched some last year, but i'd consider him a rookie)

brett wallace is up now

mike leake

travis wood had a great opening

madison bumgarner pitched some last year, too, but only a handful of innings

chris heisey

 

i feel like i could keep going, and this is without mentioning the heavy hitters already mentioned or even talking about guys like chapman who will probably see action come september. very exciting stuff.

[Tryptamine]

Castro now has the third highest OPS for all major league shortstops with at least 275 ABs, behind only Tulo and Furcal. His .318 BA is the second highest in the NL among all players with 275 ABs as well. He's got to be solidly amongst the top 4 for NL ROY, with Posey, Garcia and Heyward.

[Guest]

Castro is hitting an extra base hit every 9.89 ab's. That's awfully darned good for a 20 year old rookie SS.

[muntjack]

The kid is already one of the most productive ss in baseball. How beautiful.

[muntjack]

The kid is already one of the most productive ss in baseball. How beautiful.

[KaiserCesar]

Can anyone say batting title? He's not eligible right now, but would need something like 200 PAs over the last 54 games, which is pretty likely if he hits 2nd the rest of the way. Votto is leading it at .324 with a bunch of guys in the .310-.320 range, Castro at .318 and guys like Byrd, Furcal, Prado, CarGo in the mix.

[Backtobanks]

Castro now has the third highest OPS for all major league shortstops with at least 275 ABs, behind only Tulo and Furcal. His .318 BA is the second highest in the NL among all players with 275 ABs as well. He's got to be solidly amongst the top 4 for NL ROY, with Posey, Garcia and Heyward.

 

If the Cubs were contending, he would have to be considered as one of the frontrunners. I think his numbers as a SS on a contending team would get him ROY. Unfortunately, the lovable losers will probably blow his chances.

[TruffleShuffle]

Can anyone say batting title? He's not eligible right now, but would need something like 200 PAs over the last 54 games, which is pretty likely if he hits 2nd the rest of the way. Votto is leading it at .324 with a bunch of guys in the .310-.320 range, Castro at .318 and guys like Byrd, Furcal, Prado, CarGo in the mix.

 

huh, didn't know he was that close to the leader (in the AL there are 6 guys with a BA above .324, including hamilton at .358 and miggy cabrera at .346).

 

these days a lot of the guys who win batting titles are also home run hitters, but starlin seems to be in more of the wade boggs, tony gwynn mold of making lots of contact and spraying line drives around the park. he certainly appears to be a guy who will contend for batting titles throughout his career.

[ctcf]

I really need to order a Castro shersey.

[Tracer Bullet]

My son's favorite player is/was Theriot (thanks to the shared first name). But he has taken on Castro as a substitute. I couldn't be happier right now.