Re: What do you predict the 2011 Cubs will look like?

[apete6]

Agreed that he sucks. But I'm sick of the overpaying 2nd tier players in an attempt to fill the stadium and get fans excited when you're just crippling your team long term.

 

If we would have just taken the rebuilding approach before going buck wild in FA with Soriano, Fukudome, etc... we wouldn't be in such a dire predicament right now. Granted, we had a great year in 2008, but outside of that, we haven't gotten anything out of the Piniella/Soriano era yet (2007 doesn't count because the division sucked so bad) because we're paying 5 or 6 guys as superstars when they're just good supporting players (Bradley (now Silva), Lee, Soriano, Zambrano, Fukudome, Dempster, and even Ramirez to an extent even though he's a top 3 at his position when healthy). When the Yankees overspend, they get great players like ARod, Teixiera, and Sabathia. When we overspend, we get guys who are a bit over league average but paid like superstars.

 

Why would we start that all over again by overpaying a guy like Carlos Pena instead of just taking our lumps for a year with a guy like Hoffpauir? I know it's been 102 years, but why not allow for a rebuilding year? Unless you're going to spend $200 million every year and/or draft & develop extremely well, you need to have intentional rebuilding years. Maybe if the Cubs understood that, we wouldn't be like 1-7 against the Pirates with the 3rd highest payroll in the league.

 

But, you're right, starting Micah Hoffpauir for 1 rebuilding season would be the worst thing that's ever happened to the Cubs.

 

If you go with a Cantu or Wigginton type guy, you're really not overpaying much and you're getting pretty good production. Cantu could play first next year and then shift over to third and play there until Vitters (hopefully) is ready. If you go with Wigginton, he'd probably be perfectly fine with a 1-year deal and then you can potentially trade him at the deadline for a prospect or two.

 

I wouldn't like going for a Carlos Pena and giving him a 3-4 year deal, though, and killing our chances of going after Gonzalez/Fielder in 2011, but a stopgap type guy like Cantu or Wigginton would be semi-cheap production for a team that needs that.

 

Agreed on Wigginton if he's OK with a 1 year deal. Cantu may cost a bit too much and if Ramirez doesn't opt out, he will be his own bridge to Vitters. If Ram opts out, you might have to try and get both Wigginton AND Cantu to fill those 2 gaping holes.

[scarey]

Also, I'm not so sure "everyone is so high" on him.

 

I don't want to argue semantics, but most people that have listed a roster have him as the back up catcher.

[scarey]

I think it's because Castillo is on the 40-man. I'm with you, I prefer Chirinos. I know most who pay attention to the minors prefer Castillo but he needs to really put his tools together. Chirinos has come a long way defensively in his short time as a catcher and his bat would be just fine as a backup catcher.

 

The 40 man roster point makes sense. I just hope that wasn't the only factor put into why a player would make the roster over another.

[jersey cubs fan]

Also, I'm not so sure "everyone is so high" on him.

 

I don't want to argue semantics, but most people that have listed a roster have him as the back up catcher.

 

And I don't see it as arguing semantics by saying that does not mean everybody is so high on him. He's a logical choice for a position that doesn't require all that much.

[dew1679666265]

Agreed on Wigginton if he's OK with a 1 year deal. Cantu may cost a bit too much and if Ramirez doesn't opt out, he will be his own bridge to Vitters. If Ram opts out, you might have to try and get both Wigginton AND Cantu to fill those 2 gaping holes.

 

Wigginton is coming off a two-year deal with Baltimore, so I think he'd be likely to take a 1-year deal as he's currently in his mid-30s (I believe). He may not be offered more than that.

 

On Aramis, if he doesn't opt out, the Cubs have a player option for 2012 with him. They might pick that up, but if he doesn't improve dramatically by next season, I don't see that happening. Signing Cantu would give us somebody to play third in 2012 and 2013 until Vitters is ready if Aramis doesn't bounce back next year. If he does, Cantu proves to be a very good bat off the bench (though fairly expensive for that role). Or he could be a pretty solid trading chip in the 2011 offseason.

[woodprior04]

Has anyone mentioned Brad Hawpe yet? If the Rockies don't pick up his option, I wouldn't mind seeing us sign him to a short term deal to play 1B. I'm not sure if he'd want to move to first, but his defense is very poor in the outfield and he was brought up as a 1B before being moved due to Helton. He's not a superstar but he usually has an OBP in the .380s and hits well away from Coors. Plus, he's a lefty!!!

[fiver]

Ted Lilly has been very solid for the Cubs for the last 4 years. Does anyone see a scenario in which he would return to the Cubs next year? I'm not advocating that we extend him as it's very possible he will run out of gas towards the middle of his next contract. We should be able to get a decent return for him if we want to trade him prior to the deadline...or we could offer him arbitration as he would decline and be a type a free agent. All that said, it will be difficult to replace what he has contributed to the rotation.

[davearm2]

Ted Lilly has been very solid for the Cubs for the last 4 years. Does anyone see a scenario in which he would return to the Cubs next year? I'm not advocating that we extend him as it's very possible he will run out of gas towards the middle of his next contract. We should be able to get a decent return for him if we want to trade him prior to the deadline...or we could offer him arbitration as he would decline and be a type a free agent. All that said, it will be difficult to replace what he has contributed to the rotation.

Not sure Lilly would decline arb. As a FA he could surely get multiple years, but probably not @ $12M per.

[Guest]

Lilly has been a 3 win pitcher for 4 years now, and has missed something like 8 starts in the last 5 years. Plus his stuff is less likely to decline than that of a fireballer. I could easily see him getting 12 mil in free agency.

[fiver]

Lilly has been a 3 win pitcher for 4 years now, and has missed something like 8 starts in the last 5 years. Plus his stuff is less likely to decline than that of a fireballer. I could easily see him getting 12 mil in free agency.

 

I agree, and I guess the point I'm making is that a rotation of Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Tom Gorzellany, Carlos Zambrano, and Carlos Silva next year is likely to be extremely mediocre, if that. Wells, Gorzellany, Zambrano, and Silva are all questionable. If the plan is to rebuild for the next year or two, then we don't need to keep or replace Lilly. However, if we want to contend, then his consistency in the rotation will need to somehow be retained or replaced. While we do have the opportunity to rid ourselves of a sizeable contract, his productivity has matched or exceeded his salary.

Edited June 30, 2010 by fiver

[SouthSideRyan]

Lilly has been a 3 win pitcher for 4 years now, and has missed something like 8 starts in the last 5 years. Plus his stuff is less likely to decline than that of a fireballer. I could easily see him getting 12 mil in free agency.

 

I agree, and I guess the point I'm making is that a rotation of Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Tom Gorzellany, Carlos Zambrano, and Carlos Silva next year is likely to be extremely mediocre, if that. Wells, Gorzellany, Zambrano, and Silva are all questionable. If the plan is to rebuild for the next year or two, then we don't need to keep or replace Lilly. However, if we want to contend, then his consistency in the rotation will need to somehow be retained or replaced.

 

With Cashner, Diamond, and Jackson all ready for shots at the major league rotation, I think it would be a waste to start the year with 6 major league arms competing for 5 spots again. Unless you can trade a few of the other guys, I don't want Lilly back.

[fiver]

 

With Cashner, Diamond, and Jackson all ready for shots at the major league rotation, I think it would be a waste to start the year with 6 major league arms competing for 5 spots again. Unless you can trade a few of the other guys, I don't want Lilly back.

 

Fair enough. We have a ton of young and/or mediocre options for the rotation next year. We have so many squeaky wheels on this team...Lilly's money probably should be spent elsewhere. Unless one of Cashner, Diamond, and Jackson steps up and performs at a very high level, our rotation next year could be really bad.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

With Cashner, Diamond, and Jackson all ready for shots at the major league rotation, I think it would be a waste to start the year with 6 major league arms competing for 5 spots again. Unless you can trade a few of the other guys, I don't want Lilly back.

 

Fair enough. We have a ton of young and/or mediocre options for the rotation next year. We have so many squeaky wheels on this team...Lilly's money probably should be spent elsewhere. Unless one of Cashner, Diamond, and Jackson steps up and performs at a very high level, our rotation next year could be really bad.

 

If they put that Lilly money towards a difference making bat, fine by me. But if not, I think you have to seriously consider bringing him back. It's not like this is some stud pitching staff that can just afford to let guys get away and still rule the NL. It's basically a middle of the road staff, and this year we had the same argument about all the guys who should be able to fill roles.

[CubColtPacer]

 

With Cashner, Diamond, and Jackson all ready for shots at the major league rotation, I think it would be a waste to start the year with 6 major league arms competing for 5 spots again. Unless you can trade a few of the other guys, I don't want Lilly back.

 

Fair enough. We have a ton of young and/or mediocre options for the rotation next year. We have so many squeaky wheels on this team...Lilly's money probably should be spent elsewhere. Unless one of Cashner, Diamond, and Jackson steps up and performs at a very high level, our rotation next year could be really bad.

 

It could be, but it isn't very likely to be. The 4 guys you mentioned are all questionable, but they also are all more likely to be above average than below (Silva's the most questionable one, but the changes to his pitching style almost definitely will have positive effects even if he won't absolutely dominate against left-handed hitters like he has so far this year). It is likely that 1 and maybe 2 of them will have a bad year, but the 4 of them together combined with a good bet to be well above average in Dempster and you have an above average rotation. It would take some bad luck for them to be below average.

 

I'm definitely fine with offering Lilly arbitration though if the Cubs don't trade him. They can pocket the draft picks and it's not a problem if he somehow decides to come back. Sooner or later though the Cubs will have to open some rotation spots for all these pitchers. Silva's a great choice for that as the remaining contract that the Cubs have to pay is not that big any longer. Lilly could also be an option and it remains to be seen what the Cubs will do with Z. They definitely have too much money tied up in the rotation on the major league level when that's the biggest organizational strength.

[CubColtPacer]

 

With Cashner, Diamond, and Jackson all ready for shots at the major league rotation, I think it would be a waste to start the year with 6 major league arms competing for 5 spots again. Unless you can trade a few of the other guys, I don't want Lilly back.

 

Fair enough. We have a ton of young and/or mediocre options for the rotation next year. We have so many squeaky wheels on this team...Lilly's money probably should be spent elsewhere. Unless one of Cashner, Diamond, and Jackson steps up and performs at a very high level, our rotation next year could be really bad.

 

If they put that Lilly money towards a difference making bat, fine by me. But if not, I think you have to seriously consider bringing him back. It's not like this is some stud pitching staff that can just afford to let guys get away and still rule the NL. It's basically a middle of the road staff, and this year we had the same argument about all the guys who should be able to fill roles.

 

This rotation has not performed like a middle of the road staff. Their better than average ERA is their worst part. They have been excellent in just about every category. They strike out lots of people, they walk very few, they don't allow much of a batting average (which of course makes their OBP and OPS allowed very good). They've allowed an exactly average number of home runs. And those peripherals aren't really because of Lilly as his peripherals have been poor compared to everyone else on the staff.

[davearm2]

Lilly has been a 3 win pitcher for 4 years now, and has missed something like 8 starts in the last 5 years. Plus his stuff is less likely to decline than that of a fireballer. I could easily see him getting 12 mil in free agency.

Once upon a time, sure. Now, not so much. Last year one pitcher got a multiyear contract @ $12M per year (John Lackey).

[lumafia]

What do I predict the 2011 Cubs will look like?

 

http://epell.net/Portals/0/Gallery/Album/9/9-10%20Cubs.jpg

[fiver]

 

It could be, but it isn't very likely to be. The 4 guys you mentioned are all questionable, but they also are all more likely to be above average than below (Silva's the most questionable one, but the changes to his pitching style almost definitely will have positive effects even if he won't absolutely dominate against left-handed hitters like he has so far this year). It is likely that 1 and maybe 2 of them will have a bad year, but the 4 of them together combined with a good bet to be well above average in Dempster and you have an above average rotation. It would take some bad luck for them to be below average.

 

I'm definitely fine with offering Lilly arbitration though if the Cubs don't trade him. They can pocket the draft picks and it's not a problem if he somehow decides to come back. Sooner or later though the Cubs will have to open some rotation spots for all these pitchers. Silva's a great choice for that as the remaining contract that the Cubs have to pay is not that big any longer. Lilly could also be an option and it remains to be seen what the Cubs will do with Z. They definitely have too much money tied up in the rotation on the major league level when that's the biggest organizational strength.

 

You are more confident in Wells, Gorz, Z, and Silva than I am. You, I, no one knows what we're going to get from Z for the remainder of his contract. Is Randy Wells a major league starter? Probably, but I would be surprised if he turns in an ERA+ over 100 this season or next. I just don't see him as an above average major league starter. Silva has been our best starter this season. We're all shocked. We're all just holding our breath hoping he doesn't get injured or crash and burn. I think he may be 'fixed' as a pitcher. However, he doesn't seem super durable. He has been awesome on the field this year, but can you depend on him to perform at the top of a rotation going into a season? Gorz......I'm not sure what we have with Gorzelanny. I think it's a stretch to have confidence in him turning in an ERA+ over 100 next year over 30 starts, but I definitely have him penciled into the rotation next year.

 

Luckily, we have some more time to make these decisions. We can see how Gorz performs now that he's back in the rotation. We can see whether Wells has a resurgence. We will continue holding our breath with Silva...for now, we can only hope Z comes back stronger than he's been this year.

 

If we do plan to get rid of Lilly, would we get a greater return via trade or via compensation pick? If we are wanting to have a rookie as an option for the rotation next next year, then shouldn't we part with Lilly sooner rather than later so that we could potentially get Cashner in the rotation for part of this season?

 

By parting with Lilly, you're parting with consistency, a known commodity. If/Once we let him go, we're rolling dice on yet another rotation spot. Rolling those dice may very well be in the club's best interest if they are able to improve the offense, but the rotation will be worse for it.

Edited June 30, 2010 by fiver

[CubColtPacer]

Lilly has been a 3 win pitcher for 4 years now, and has missed something like 8 starts in the last 5 years. Plus his stuff is less likely to decline than that of a fireballer. I could easily see him getting 12 mil in free agency.

Once upon a time, sure. Now, not so much. Last year one pitcher got a multiyear contract @ $12M per year (John Lackey).

 

The pitching quality last year on the market was not good either. Obviously salaries have been depressed somewhat but it was also an off year more like 2007 than 2006 or 2008 (where only Carlos Silva got a multi-year deal).

 

Randy Wolf was the second best pitcher on the market last year and got 3 years 29.75 million. He's inferior to Lilly and was only just over a year younger when he signed his deal. That should be the starting point for Lilly's contract and he could definitely get a decent bit more than that.

[davell]

I pulled this back up, in lieu of the move made Saturday afternoon. We should have a very interesting offseason on our hands,,,,,,,

 

C SOTO HILL

1B

2B DEWITT FONTENOT

SS CASTRO

3B RAMIREZ BAKER

LF SORIANO

CF BYRD

RF COLVIN FUKUDOME

 

This is what we have right now that's under contract or in arbitration for next year. I expect us to let Hill walk and play either Chirinos or Castillo as our backup C. I expect one of Baker or Fontenot to be gone, either through trade this next month or Baker could get non tendered over the offseason. Either way, I think Darwin Barney has a spot on next year's club...... I expect Fukudome to be dealt, with us either eating the contract or taking back someone else's mistake. My guess is we will eat his deal personally.....It wouldn't surprise me to see Brad Snyder make the team as a 5th OFer, while I think we will probably sign a Reed Johnson type to be our 4th. Things could get tricky if Brett Jackson appears to have a shot at making the club out of ST.I expect us to make runs at whatever big name 1B are out there, either through trade or free agency. But, I don't see Lee back with us, unless he gave us such a huge discount, it'd be almost impossible NOT to resign him, which I don't see happening.

 

 

SP ZAMBRANO DEMPSTER SILVA WELLS GORZELANNY

RP MARMOL MARSHALL CASHNER GRABOW SAMARDZIJA RUSSELL GUZMAN

 

 

I expect Z to be dealt with us taking on a bad contract in return. Best case scenario is he somehow pitches well between now and the end of the season, to help us out some with that. Dempster has a spot locked down. Silva's health scare today has to make the Cubs pause some. My guess is Wells or Gorz could be shopped as a cheap starter as part of a deal for either a 1B or possibly an ace type, if Greinke possibly goes on the market. Either way, I expect 2 spots to be open from what we currently have......Giving some of the youngsters a shot to make the opening day rotation(probably just one will) and allowing us to add one veteran as well.

 

I'd like to see Marmol shopped personally, but I don't see it happening. Marshall has a spot on lockdown. My guess is either Cashner or Jay Jackson gets a setup role(with the other in the rotation most likely) Unfortunately, Grabow will have a spot and Shark will too most likely, based on his contract. I'd think Russell has to be a favorite to win a role and Stevens is probably the other frontrunner, unless Guzman can make it back. If he doesn't, I guess we nontender him. Either way, we've got lots of arms down in AAA to shuttle back and forth for a spot or two in the pen and I'd like to THINK(probably not though) that Hendry won't go spend money on another arm for the pen.

 

 

At any rate, if the rumors are true about Ricketts wanting to lower payroll down to the 120 range next year, things could move really slow for us this offseason. I think we'll be right at 111 or so with the guys I've got written down. Then, if you subtract maybe 10 mill or so from potential savings of dealing Z and Fukudome, we are probably going to have about 18-20 mill to spend on a 1B and a starting pitcher, along with a couple of bench spots most likely.......

 

Of the 3 big name trade pieces I could see us going after, Fielder will be making over 10.5, as this was his 2nd arb year. AGON will be making 5.5 mill in the last year of his deal and Greinke is making 13.5 for each of the next 2 seasons......And if we decide to go after Brian Roberts again, he's making 10 for each of the next 3 seasons, for what it's worth.(I could see us going on a LEADOFF MAN hunt again.) Whether it's important or not.

[fiver]

So who is saying Ricketts is going to cut payroll to 120 million next year? I don't have a problem with that if it allows us to significantly increase payroll for the 2012 season, but I would hope that the long term plan is to spend more than all teams sans the Red Sox and Yankees.

 

Also...I somewhat 'hated on' Randy Wells in a previous post in this thread. Wells has pleasantly surprised me over his last 10 starts, and it would be great if he can continue to pitch as an above league average starter.

[Schwarber Fan]

Fontenot/Dewitt is redundant, davell. They'll keep Baker.

[UMFan83]

So who is saying Ricketts is going to cut payroll to 120 million next year? I don't have a problem with that if it allows us to significantly increase payroll for the 2012 season, but I would hope that the long term plan is to spend more than all teams sans the Red Sox and Yankees.

 

Also...I somewhat 'hated on' Randy Wells in a previous post in this thread. Wells has pleasantly surprised me over his last 10 starts, and it would be great if he can continue to pitch as an above league average starter.

 

I hope the Cubs get saddled with payroll limitations until Hendry is gone because I absolutely do not trust him to spend surplus money on players that fit on this team. He's given middle relievers $5m/year contracts, he's signed 30 year old OFs to 8 year deals, he's given just about every decent signing/resigning no trade clauses, he's addressed a lack of a LH power bat by signing the player (of the LH bats) who hits the worst against Righties, and gave him the most money of the options out there.

[daske17]

So who is saying Ricketts is going to cut payroll to 120 million next year? I don't have a problem with that if it allows us to significantly increase payroll for the 2012 season, but I would hope that the long term plan is to spend more than all teams sans the Red Sox and Yankees.

 

Also...I somewhat 'hated on' Randy Wells in a previous post in this thread. Wells has pleasantly surprised me over his last 10 starts, and it would be great if he can continue to pitch as an above league average starter.

 

I hope the Cubs get saddled with payroll limitations until Hendry is gone because I absolutely do not trust him to spend surplus money on players that fit on this team. He's given middle relievers $5m/year contracts, he's signed 30 year old OFs to 8 year deals, he's given just about every decent signing/resigning no trade clauses, he's addressed a lack of a LH power bat by signing the player (of the LH bats) who hits the worst against Righties, and gave him the most money of the options out there.

 

Let's give Randy Bush priority power on off-season contracts, Hendry on trade deadline deals and Wilken stays in charge of the draft. Wouldn't happen, but it keeps Hendry away from the full checkbook.

[dew1679666265]

While I agree with your overall point (Hendry overspends and a lesser payroll may actually be a good thing during his GM tenure), I have some issues:

 

He's given middle relievers $5m/year contracts

 

Who? Howry got about $4 mil a year, Grabow got an average of 3.5 a year and Eyre got 3 a year. I can't think of any $5+ mil a year relievers under Hendry. And Howry and Eyre were good signings.

 

he's given just about every decent signing/resigning no trade clauses

 

We only have five guys with NTCs: Lee, Aramis, Soriano, Z, Fukudome. Soriano and Z are the only NTCs that look really bad at this point. The Cubs want to trade Fukudome but really shouldn't and Lee and Aramis have 10/5 rights at this point (and we didn't want to trade either prior to last year when I think both got their rights).