Re: NHL (Blackhawks included) offseason thread

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The timing of the big three contracts this season could not have been better, as all of those guys would have gotten much more this offseason, post-Cup. Because of this, you have to at least entertain the possibility of dealing Seabrook. I don't want to, but if he's going to be impossible to resign, I'd rather deal him sooner and then keep the other parts you want to keep, than wait and potentially lose him for nothing.

 

There's no chance of losing Seabrook for nothing. He's a $3.5 million cap hit this season and then an RFA next season. There's plenty of cap room to resign him next year, with $4.5 million in bonus cap hit off the books, plus I expect the cap to go up a solid amount the next few years as league revenues are on the uptick. There's plenty of room to sign him to a $5-6 million extension that he deserves.

 

If anyone wants to sign him to an offer sheet of more than that, they are getting into four first-round pick compensation territory.

 

Incidentally, the Blackhawks have signed Norwegian Mathis Olimb to a contract. It's a cheap, two-way deal to get him into the NHL, but he has a chance to be a decent third-line winger right away from what I've read. Cheap replacement for a guy like Versteeg:

 

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=4225&lang=en

[17 Seconds]

dealing seabrook would be a horrible, horrible hit to next years team. out of the question.

[jersey cubs fan]

The timing of the big three contracts this season could not have been better, as all of those guys would have gotten much more this offseason, post-Cup. Because of this, you have to at least entertain the possibility of dealing Seabrook. I don't want to, but if he's going to be impossible to resign, I'd rather deal him sooner and then keep the other parts you want to keep, than wait and potentially lose him for nothing.

 

There's no chance of losing Seabrook for nothing. He's a $3.5 million cap hit this season and then an RFA next season. There's plenty of cap room to resign him next year, with $4.5 million in bonus cap hit off the books, plus I expect the cap to go up a solid amount the next few years as league revenues are on the uptick. There's plenty of room to sign him to a $5-6 million extension that he deserves.

 

Oh, he'd still only be RFA, then yeah, not this offseason.

[17 Seconds]

he needs to be the next player locked up long term. him and keith need to stay together. they shouldn't trade him next offseason either. do what you must to keep that guy.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Interestingly, the Blackhawks may be in a position to be buyers next offseason.

 

They'll clear out a bunch of these mid-20s, semi-expensive wingers like Versteeg and Byfuglien. If you've done this offseason right, your top four defensemen are still intact, and so are your top-6 forwards (Hossa/Kane/Toews/Bolland/Beach/whichever expendable winger you don't trade this offseason) will all still be under contract, with guys like Skille taking a step toward being experienced back-6ers.

 

I'd estimate maybe $7.5 million in cap space to work with between the cap going up and the bonus hits dead space going away. Seabrook's raise shouldn't cost more than $1.5 million or so above what he makes now, and there's a few other RFAs that need small raises, but there should be a few million or so left over for one good upgrade. Maybe a premier goalie?

 

(I think the CBA expires after this coming season, so this all assumes the new one looks something like the current one)

[kujay]

Maybe a premier goalie?

 

I think if there is anything we've learned over the last few years it's that this is probably not the best place to sink $4-5M.

 

I agree that the team isn't in "salary cap hell" as many are suggesting. They just need to be smart, and I think Bowman will be.

[Magnetic Curses]

Zito is Antti Niemi's agent...

 

"You have to make a smart hockey decision," Zito said. "Where does he want to play? Does he want to be part of this thing?

 

"This city, it's unbelievable now. But he might say 'no.' In fact, he's the kind of guy who might say, 'I don't like it.' "

 

"The other night, we were all going to dinner and I was like, 'Hey, we're going to one of these Mexican places, do you want to go?'

 

"Antti says, 'No. Too many people will see me.'"

 

i have to say, if niemi is really like this, i disapprove.

 

i want a cocky, attention-whore goalie who's pissed that he has to wear a mask. a goalie who desires to be in the spotlight and around the action. someone who is smiling under all that gear when we're all clenching our asses and grinding our teeth.

[jersey cubs fan]

Zito is Antti Niemi's agent...

 

"You have to make a smart hockey decision," Zito said. "Where does he want to play? Does he want to be part of this thing?

 

"This city, it's unbelievable now. But he might say 'no.' In fact, he's the kind of guy who might say, 'I don't like it.' "

 

"The other night, we were all going to dinner and I was like, 'Hey, we're going to one of these Mexican places, do you want to go?'

 

"Antti says, 'No. Too many people will see me.'"

 

i have to say, if niemi is really like this, i disapprove.

 

i want a cocky, attention-whore goalie who's pissed that he has to wear a mask. a goalie who desires to be in the spotlight and around the action. someone who is smiling under all that gear when we're all clenching our asses and grinding our teeth.

 

Why? The only reason would be to reassure you that you can win. But that guy would also get an inordinate salary based on his marketability. Screw that.

[Magnetic Curses]

well, obviously niemi and his agent are trying to extract money from the hawks by selling the guy as a wallflower.

 

damned if you do and if you don't. at least we won the cup.

[kujay]

well, obviously niemi and his agent are trying to extract money from the hawks by selling the guy as a wallflower.

 

damned if you do and if you don't. at least we won the cup.

 

That doesn't make sense. They aren't trying to extract money from the Hawks by showing him to be a wallflower. They are trying to extract money from the Hawks by suggesting that he's a contrarian (I guess) who won't take less just to stay with the Hawks because they are a good team and won the Cup. Sounds like pretty standard posturing to me.

[hawkeyecub]

Niemi is a wallflower.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Maybe a premier goalie?

 

I think if there is anything we've learned over the last few years it's that this is probably not the best place to sink $4-5M.

 

I agree that the team isn't in "salary cap hell" as many are suggesting. They just need to be smart, and I think Bowman will be.

 

At a bare minimum, they are losing Sopel, Ladd, Madden, Versteeg, Byfuglien or Sharp, and Niemi or Hjalmarsson. (Maybe losing Campbell and keeping a couple of those guys, but I think that's even worse). And they have to move some of those guys almost immediately, putting a lot of pressure on them to make a deal quickly and costing them some leverage. That may not be hell, but it's definitely a stay in purgatory.

[Flames24Rulz]

Not popular but I'm going to say it anyway. Let's part with Campbell.

[kujay]

Not popular but I'm going to say it anyway. Let's part with Campbell.

 

This is tough. Campbell showed his worth in the playoffs. And I think a #3 (though he's arguably the 4th best d-man on the team behind Hammer) defenseman is harder to come by than a 3rd or 4th line winger. So I would lean toward keeping him.

 

I also don't think the situation is quite as dire as Kyle suggests, especially if Huet is banished to Rockford.

[Flames24Rulz]

Not popular but I'm going to say it anyway. Let's part with Campbell.

 

This is tough. Campbell showed his worth in the playoffs. And I think a #3 (though he's arguably the 4th best d-man on the team behind Hammer) defenseman is harder to come by than a 3rd or 4th line winger. So I would lean toward keeping him.

 

I also don't think the situation is quite as dire as Kyle suggests, especially if Huet is banished to Rockford.

 

No question that Campbell was excellent in the playoffs. But if we have to part with all of those guys that Kyle suggested, I'd be willing to take the hit and get rid of Campbell's contract over getting rid of all of those other players.

[kujay]

Not popular but I'm going to say it anyway. Let's part with Campbell.

 

This is tough. Campbell showed his worth in the playoffs. And I think a #3 (though he's arguably the 4th best d-man on the team behind Hammer) defenseman is harder to come by than a 3rd or 4th line winger. So I would lean toward keeping him.

 

I also don't think the situation is quite as dire as Kyle suggests, especially if Huet is banished to Rockford.

 

No question that Campbell was excellent in the playoffs. But if we have to part with all of those guys that Kyle suggested, I'd be willing to take the hit and get rid of Campbell's contract over getting rid of all of those other players.

 

But it's not all of them vs. Campbell. Madden is gone no matter what. So is Sopel. He mentioned Buff, Sharp, Versteeg, Niemi and Hammer. It's probably any two of these guys vs. Campbell. I don't buy that they all have to go.

[jersey cubs fan]

Not popular but I'm going to say it anyway. Let's part with Campbell.

 

This is tough. Campbell showed his worth in the playoffs. And I think a #3 (though he's arguably the 4th best d-man on the team behind Hammer) defenseman is harder to come by than a 3rd or 4th line winger. So I would lean toward keeping him.

 

I also don't think the situation is quite as dire as Kyle suggests, especially if Huet is banished to Rockford.

 

No question that Campbell was excellent in the playoffs. But if we have to part with all of those guys that Kyle suggested, I'd be willing to take the hit and get rid of Campbell's contract over getting rid of all of those other players.

 

But it's not all of them vs. Campbell. Madden is gone no matter what. So is Sopel. He mentioned Buff, Sharp, Versteeg, Niemi and Hammer. It's probably any two of these guys vs. Campbell. I don't buy that they all have to go.

 

Getting rid of Campbell's deal would allow them to keep some guys we are assuming are gone. The problem is they probably can't get rid of him, but if they do they'd have to take back a bad deal, so there's no point.

[kujay]

Getting rid of Campbell's deal would allow them to keep some guys we are assuming are gone. The problem is they probably can't get rid of him, but if they do they'd have to take back a bad deal, so there's no point.

 

That's a good point. I think if we were having this conversation two years from now, when he'll only have four years left on his deal (sweet jesus), maybe somebody would be willing to take him without dumping a bad contract in return.

 

But right now it probably just won't happen.

 

That's why it's so complicated with Dale Tallon. Yeah, he did so many great things that helped us get a cup, but he took a giant dump all over the 2010-11 Chicago Blackhawks.

[Magnetic Curses]

well, obviously niemi and his agent are trying to extract money from the hawks by selling the guy as a wallflower.

 

damned if you do and if you don't. at least we won the cup.

 

That doesn't make sense. They aren't trying to extract money from the Hawks by showing him to be a wallflower. They are trying to extract money from the Hawks by suggesting that he's a contrarian (I guess) who won't take less just to stay with the Hawks because they are a good team and won the Cup. Sounds like pretty standard posturing to me.

 

well, it's coming out like niemi doesn't necessarily want to win wherever he goes. they're taking it to an extreme. they could have just said, "look, antti is going to the highest bidder, plain and simple. if you want him, match the highest bid." and that's all they need to do because he's an RFA.

 

they don't need to play this starnge game that involves insinuating that it is niemi's preference NOT to play for the cup, because that's what they insinuated, which is really really weird and not standard at all.

[Banedon]

Not popular but I'm going to say it anyway. Let's part with Campbell.

 

This is tough. Campbell showed his worth in the playoffs. And I think a #3 (though he's arguably the 4th best d-man on the team behind Hammer) defenseman is harder to come by than a 3rd or 4th line winger. So I would lean toward keeping him.

 

I also don't think the situation is quite as dire as Kyle suggests, especially if Huet is banished to Rockford.

 

No question that Campbell was excellent in the playoffs. But if we have to part with all of those guys that Kyle suggested, I'd be willing to take the hit and get rid of Campbell's contract over getting rid of all of those other players.

 

But it's not all of them vs. Campbell. Madden is gone no matter what. So is Sopel. He mentioned Buff, Sharp, Versteeg, Niemi and Hammer. It's probably any two of these guys vs. Campbell. I don't buy that they all have to go.

 

Getting rid of Campbell's deal would allow them to keep some guys we are assuming are gone. The problem is they probably can't get rid of him, but if they do they'd have to take back a bad deal, so there's no point.

 

I dunno...I bet Campbell would might be easier than you think. The guy is coming off a Stanley Cup and is a good player. He's overpaid, but somebody won't mind taking that contract on. Some team that has cap room and wants to add some name talent might actually take it. It's not like he's a bad player.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I also don't think the situation is quite as dire as Kyle suggests, especially if Huet is banished to Rockford.

 

capgeek.com to do the math for yourself and you'll see it.

 

The cap was $56.8 million this year. It's expected to go up about $2 million (unless the players decide not to use their escalator to keep the escrow down, which I'd say is about a 25% chance of happening, and would make things even worse), and the Blackhawks will lose $4.2 million in cap space due to the bonuses of Toews and Kane (this has been reported in a couple of newspapers now). So our cap is effectively about $54.6 million next year. Note that the bonuses reduce our cap, not count against our cap, which will be important later.

 

Under contract for next year:

Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp, Byfuglien, Bolland, Versteeg, Kopecky, Brouwer

Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, Sopel

Huet

 

14 players under contract for next year: Combined cap hit of $57.598 million dollars. We are six players short of a basic roster and $2.1 million over our cap for next season already.

 

From right now until training camp, you can exceed the cap by 10%. So our offseason cap is right around $60 million, so we are $2.4 million under that. But we need to qualify our restricted free agents, and the ones who spent time in the NHL last year count against the cap. That's Ladd, Eager, Fraser, Niemi, Hjalmarsson, Skille and Hendry. The combined cost of qualifying those guys will be about $4 million, so we need to shave $1 million to $2 million by July 1 just to make your basic qualifying offers to keep your rights to your RFAs.

 

Huet can't be waived and sent to the minors until the season actually starts, so that provides no immediately relief. Basically, he takes up our 10% offseason buffer all summer. We must move a player to qualify our RFAs.

 

If we waive Huet, let all of our RFAs go for nothing and fill the remaining six roster spots with cheap players, we're *still* a little over the cap (and only going with 20 players, most teams will want 21 or 22). You'd need to drop Sopel and replace him with a nobody in order to make that work. So at that point, we've lost Ladd, Sopel, Niemi, Hjalmarsson, Eager, Fraser, Madden and Burish.

 

IMO, the first priority has to be keeping Hjalmarsson. He's going to get at *least* $3 million, maybe even $4 or more, and we have to clear the cap space almost immediately if he signs an offer sheet early in free agency, which I think begins July 1. So in order to afford that, you have to lose Versteeg, Byfuglien or Sharp.

 

They aren't going to go with Crawford/Tuovenen (sp?) at goalie, so either we pony up for Niemi or we sign a cheap veteran FA for a $2 million or so. Either way, we have to lose another player to do that. Say goodbye to another of Versteeg, Byfuglien or Sharp, with enough to spare to let us fill two more bargain-basement roster spots for a 13th forward and 7th D to fill out the roster.

 

And this isn't even considering a guy like Kyle Beach, who costs $1.2 million, or about $600k more than the theoretical "bargain basement" guys we were talking about.

 

Things seemed manageable until the Toews/Kane cap hit came down. That made this a total capocalypse. We'll still be a contender next year with our top-end players, but we'll have to spend the season with absolutely no depth at all.

Edited June 14, 2010 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I dunno...I bet Campbell would might be easier than you think. The guy is coming off a Stanley Cup and is a good player. He's overpaid, but somebody won't mind taking that contract on. Some team that has cap room and wants to add some name talent might actually take it. It's not like he's a bad player.

 

You never know in the NHL. It just takes one GM. But I suspect it's not the cap hit immediately, but the six more years that makes Campbell unmovable. I could be wrong.

 

Plus, he has a partial No Move Clause which says he can stipulate 10 teams he'd be willing to traded to. I doubt those 10 teams are the ones with a lot of cap space.

[Magnetic Curses]

I dunno...I bet Campbell would might be easier than you think. The guy is coming off a Stanley Cup and is a good player. He's overpaid, but somebody won't mind taking that contract on. Some team that has cap room and wants to add some name talent might actually take it. It's not like he's a bad player.

 

You never know in the NHL. It just takes one GM. But I suspect it's not the cap hit immediately, but the six more years that makes Campbell unmovable. I could be wrong.

 

Plus, he has a partial No Move Clause which says he can stipulate 10 teams he'd be willing to traded to. I doubt those 10 teams are the ones with a lot of cap space.

 

are we expecting a bidding war for buff or versteeg? obviously there would be one for sharp but let's not let him go.

 

what kind of prospects/picks might we expect?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

are we expecting a bidding war for buff or versteeg? obviously there would be one for sharp but let's not let him go.

 

what kind of prospects/picks might we expect?

 

I honestly don't know. The bonus cap hit really threw the amateur GMs for a loop because it means that some salary must be moved immediately and some can wait until later in the offseason. Who knows how that effects teams' opinions.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If you go to capgeek.com and hit "calc" by the Blackhawks, you can start fiddling around and trying to make a roster. It's *hard*. The Blackhawks cap should be around $54.5 or so next season, not the $56.8 it will tell you, because it hasn't accounted for the cap increase or the bonus hit.

 

AUTO-GENERATED CAPGEEK.COM LINES

FORWARDS

Jonathan Toews ($6.300m) / Patrick Kane ($6.300m) / Marian Hossa ($5.275m)

Patrick Sharp ($3.900m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Kyle Beach ($1.200m)

Tomas Kopecky ($1.200m) / Troy Brouwer ($1.025m) / * Cheap C ($0.650m)

* Bryan Bickell ($0.600m) / Jake Dowell ($0.525m)

DEFENSEMEN

Brian Campbell ($7.143m) / Duncan Keith ($5.538m)

* Niklas Hjalmarsson ($3.500m) / Brent Seabrook ($3.500m)

* Jordan Hendry ($0.750m) / * Cheap D ($0.650m)

* Cheap W ($0.650m)

GOALTENDERS

* Cheap vet goalie ($1.500m) / Corey Crawford ($0.800m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS

(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)

ROSTER: 20; PAYROLL: $54.381m; BONUSES: $0.325m