2011 Draft Discussion

[StarlinOnYou]

I don't want Starling OR Archie Bradley since this year's draft is so deep. If I can get a guy with slightly less talent(or possibly even the same) I'm spending less, so I can spend more later on, with the chance of getting 2 or 3 1st round talent types possibly for the same money you mau have to spend on just Starling or Bradley. This, of course, assumes we don't have an unlimited budget and can draft BPA every round and not worry about how much we're spending.

 

I understand this philosophy too.

 

I don't believe for a second Bubba is going to end up playing football at Nebraska. It just makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

Boras is his agent and will use all that leverage. Bubba will get paid and be playing professional baseball, IMO.

[davearm2]

I don't want Starling OR Archie Bradley since this year's draft is so deep. If I can get a guy with slightly less talent(or possibly even the same) I'm spending less, so I can spend more later on, with the chance of getting 2 or 3 1st round talent types possibly for the same money you mau have to spend on just Starling or Bradley. This, of course, assumes we don't have an unlimited budget and can draft BPA every round and not worry about how much we're spending.

Right, this is the point. Why spend a high first round pick on a guy like Starling when there are other options on the board that are roughly as good, and don't have the added leverage that will cost you millions extra.

 

Let Starling fall into Rick Porcello range, or heck, even Samardzija range.

[Rob]

I'd rather have Starling than anybody in this draft not named Cole or Rendon.

 

But when it comes down to it, if the difference in money is really that large... I'd rather spend it on a few super-slots or maybe a first round guy that falls to the 2nd. It's not like he's gonna be that much better than anybody else on the board (and there should be plenty).

[davell]

By the way, Trevor Bauer has already had 2 starts this year where he's thrown 125+ pitches in.

[toonsterwu]

I'm not a huge fan of college arms throwing that many pitches (Hultzen will occasionally run it up in the 120's as well), but most people seem to suggest that it's okay.

 

As a side note, Sonny Gray's control doesn't seem to be that sharp this year.

[Guest]

The reason some people are ok with that is that college SP operate on 6 days rest.

 

And Savage doesn't seem to have qualms about 120+ pitches. A few years back, Dave Huff threw 150 pitches in a conference game.

[Guest]

Bauer struck out 15 yesterday. :)

[Outshined_One]

For those of you looking to learn more about the eligible players in this year's draft:

 

http://www.5tooltalk.com/

http://baseballbeginnings.com/

http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/ (Seiler left; there's a new guy running it now)

[Guest]

Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA

 

Bauer continues to see his stock rise for the upcoming draft. With 15 strikeouts in a complete-game victory on Saturday, he now has 97 punchouts in 64 2/3 innings and has allowed just 33 hits to go with a 1.67 ERA. Those incredible numbers have moved him into the middle of the first round, and maybe higher than that. Still, not all the news was good on Saturday; Bauer threw 134 pitches for no reason—the Bruins won the game handily, 10-3. In last week's podcast, A's farm director Keith Lieppman discussed how the low workloads for young arms weren't to protect developing arms as much as it was to heal from the damage put on as amateurs. Saturday night was a prime example of what he was talking about.

[StarlinOnYou]

Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA

 

Bauer continues to see his stock rise for the upcoming draft. With 15 strikeouts in a complete-game victory on Saturday, he now has 97 punchouts in 64 2/3 innings and has allowed just 33 hits to go with a 1.67 ERA. Those incredible numbers have moved him into the middle of the first round, and maybe higher than that. Still, not all the news was good on Saturday; Bauer threw 134 pitches for no reason—the Bruins won the game handily, 10-3. In last week's podcast, A's farm director Keith Lieppman discussed how the low workloads for young arms weren't to protect developing arms as much as it was to heal from the damage put on as amateurs. Saturday night was a prime example of what he was talking about.

 

Nice.

 

Also, interesting tidbit on pitch count w/ amateurs.

[Guest]

Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA

 

Bauer continues to see his stock rise for the upcoming draft. With 15 strikeouts in a complete-game victory on Saturday, he now has 97 punchouts in 64 2/3 innings and has allowed just 33 hits to go with a 1.67 ERA. Those incredible numbers have moved him into the middle of the first round, and maybe higher than that. Still, not all the news was good on Saturday; Bauer threw 134 pitches for no reason—the Bruins won the game handily, 10-3. In last week's podcast, A's farm director Keith Lieppman discussed how the low workloads for young arms weren't to protect developing arms as much as it was to heal from the damage put on as amateurs. Saturday night was a prime example of what he was talking about.

 

Nice.

 

Also, interesting tidbit on pitch count w/ amateurs.

 

One thing to consider though is that college pitchers pitch on 6 days rest (once a week) normally.

[Guest]

BA Draft Tracker 04.12.11

 

Top 10:

 

1. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice

2. Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA

3. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia

4. Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt

5. Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech

6. Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (Gardner, KS)

7. Francisco Lindor, SS, Monteverde Academy (FL)

8. Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA

9. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS (OK)

10. George Springer, OF, Connecticut

 

Taylor Jungmann fell to 13, Matt Purke to 15. Taylor Guerrieri, a prep RHP from South Carolina is the biggest riser - going from unranked to 11.

[Outshined_One]

College Notes 4-12-11

 

 

Trevor Bauer

 

It’s impossible not to make a reference to Tim Lincecum when you’re trying to explain how Bauer pitches. His delivery isn’t quite that exaggerated, and his stuff also isn’t that good, but it’s a good frame of reference to point to. He is aggressive on the mound, and all business. He can elevate his fastball and get away with it (at least at the college level), and in the early innings he was showing a really sharp slurvy curveball that had sharp downward break to it. The pitch almost acted as a power sinker, and it wasn’t the same curveball I had seen him throw in the past. He threw a few more true curveballs later in the game, as you could identify them immediately out of the hand as the trajectory was more distinct. He only threw three to four really good curves, all of them later in the game, two of which I believe came in the ninth inning. The first breaking pitch/hybrid curve, or whatever you want to call it, was a pretty impressive pitch, and I don’t recall seeing that previously. I don’t think it was the ‘reverse slider’ that some people have mentioned, as it didn’t have two-plane break.

 

It was interesting to see his approach throughout the game. He started off with the sharper of the two breaking balls early in the game, using the pitch down in the strike zone and even down in the dirt before busting hitters up high with his fastball (or vice-versa). In the middle innings he tried to snap off more true curveballs, and when that pitch wasn’t working for him he turned to a nifty changeup in the fifth through seventh innings. From the sixth through the ninth he tried more and more curveballs, and as noted above, found his grip on the pitch a handful of times.

 

He has a tremendous work ethic, and his pre-game and in-game rituals have been well documented. So have his pitch counts, more concerning to observers since he also is known to go to the bullpen between innings to stay warm. But it works for him. There were no radar gun readings available, but he appeared to maintain his velocity and his control (which isn’t great, but effective) throughout all nine innings of this game against Washington State. Leaving his fastball up can lead to some hard hit balls in the air, including one solo shot, and that is a concern of mine at the next level when more and more hitters will be able to catch up to his fastball. Bauer isn’t particularly big and has a rather modest build. He works very quickly, has swing-and-miss stuff and certainly is one of the more interesting characters in college baseball.

 

It's like Bauer is tempting the pitch count gods.

[Guest]

Jason (Austin): Can you give some reasons as to why Taylor Jungmann is rated 13th? I have seen him pitch for 3 years and I would take Jungmann in a game playoff over any of the pitchers ahead of him! As a Freshman in the CWS vs an extremely talented LSU lineup he just dominated them!

 

Jim Callis: Because this draft is ridiculous. I don't disagree with you—Jungmann is 6-0 in postseason play and I saw that start against LSU in Omaha. This draft is just so loaded that our Top 50 was going to have someone at No. 13 and 14 (it turned out to be Jungmann and Barnes) who would have had a chance to go No. 4 in the 2010 draft.

 

JD Sussman (Bullpen Banter): Jim, I like to look at at players in tiers. Assuming that Cole and Rendon are tier one, where does the second tier of players end? Rather, how many players would be a suitable choice for the third overall pick this year?

 

Jim Callis: That second tier goes down to 13-15 on the Top 50 right now, with Jungmann and Barnes and Purke (if healthy) worth at least being considered for the No. 3 choice.

 

Jim H. (Sphinx Park, CO): We know there's a big gap between Hultzen and Cole/Rendon? How big a gap is there between Hultzen and the people who trail him. What made him #3 from a scouting/upside perspective?

 

Jim Callis: As I alluded too earlier, I don't think there's much of a gap between Hultzen and No. 13 (Jungmann), No. 14 (Barnes) and No. 15 (Purke, if he's 100 percent).

[RammyFanny]

• Random draft chatter I've heard about teams at the top: Have heard the Mariners would probably take the either Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon, whomever the Pirates pass on & that the Diamondbacks, at No. 3, covet Virginia LHP Danny Hultzen, who was electric on Friday night with Seattle scouting director Tommy McNamara in the house & that the Orioles, at No. 4, are extremely likely to take a college pitcher, with Hultzen and Georgia Tech LHP Jed Bradley among the candidates & as are the Royals, at No. 5, who are interested in UConn RHP Matt Barnes in addition to the other names I've mentioned & and both Arizona (picking again at No. 7) and the Cubs (at No. 9) have Sonny Gray very high on their internal rankings.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=mlb_draft&id=6354443

[StarlinOnYou]

• Random draft chatter I've heard about teams at the top: Have heard the Mariners would probably take the either Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon, whomever the Pirates pass on & that the Diamondbacks, at No. 3, covet Virginia LHP Danny Hultzen, who was electric on Friday night with Seattle scouting director Tommy McNamara in the house & that the Orioles, at No. 4, are extremely likely to take a college pitcher, with Hultzen and Georgia Tech LHP Jed Bradley among the candidates & as are the Royals, at No. 5, who are interested in UConn RHP Matt Barnes in addition to the other names I've mentioned & and both Arizona (picking again at No. 7) and the Cubs (at No. 9) have Sonny Gray very high on their internal rankings.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=mlb_draft&id=6354443

 

Obviously, not a huge surprise with the Gray interest.

 

I'd really love either Gray or Bubba Starling in round 1.

 

Still, I can't really see anyone here disappointed in the selection. It will be hard for Wilken to shake this forum this year. Lots of studs to choose from.

[RammyFanny]

Anything can happen with fast risers, but i'm not seeing Sonny making it to 9. Hopefully though.

[imb]

God I wish I was free Friday night.

 

http://okblitz.com/Article.aspx?id=37507

 

 

The 6A No. 1 Tigers have won 16 in a row, while the No. 2 Rams are winners of 18 straight. The reason that most people will be there is the pitching matchup. Two of the top high school prospects in the country will the toe the rubber against each other. Broken Arrow’s Archie Bradley comes into Friday with a 7-0 record, a 0.16 ERA, 73 strikeouts and 8 walks. Owasso’s Dylan Bundy has the same record, a 0.40 ERA, 95 strikeouts and 3 walks. They each have a no-hitter to their credit this season.

[davell]

All I wanted before the season started was for Purke to have a slight dropoff to where he could possibly be available when we pick.....Now, I'm kind of scared to take him, if he IS there. Tonight, he was sitting 92-93 in the 2nd, but fell to 88 after that and only pitched 4 innings total. I know he got a late start, due to blistering, but he should be lasting further than that at this stage and holding velo as well. Maybe he's going to wind up as a closer? It wouldn't shock me to see him stay another year(since he's a soph eligible) to improve his atock again, if he doesn't show much stamina improvement from now to the draft.......

[davearm2]

• Random draft chatter I've heard about teams at the top: Have heard the Mariners would probably take the either Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon, whomever the Pirates pass on & that the Diamondbacks, at No. 3, covet Virginia LHP Danny Hultzen, who was electric on Friday night with Seattle scouting director Tommy McNamara in the house & that the Orioles, at No. 4, are extremely likely to take a college pitcher, with Hultzen and Georgia Tech LHP Jed Bradley among the candidates & as are the Royals, at No. 5, who are interested in UConn RHP Matt Barnes in addition to the other names I've mentioned & and both Arizona (picking again at No. 7) and the Cubs (at No. 9) have Sonny Gray very high on their internal rankings.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=mlb_draft&id=6354443

 

Obviously, not a huge surprise with the Gray interest.

 

I'd really love either Gray or Bubba Starling in round 1.

 

Still, I can't really see anyone here disappointed in the selection. It will be hard for Wilken to shake this forum this year. Lots of studs to choose from.

I'd say the opposite is true. With so many studs on the board Wilken could set of riots with another Colvin, Simpson out-of-the-blue type pick.

[Guest]

Last time Willken was in a situation where there were a lot of studs on the board, he took a consensus top 5 guy at 3 in Josh Vitters and ended up pissing off a majority of the board. So Wilken can cause a reaction on here even when he's not reaching.

[shnsajax]

Matt Purke out indefinatly with shoulder soreness and making a trip to see Dr Andrews. Really sucks for him.

 

http://dallas.sbnation.com/2011/4/19/2121837/tcus-matt-purke-out-indefinitely-with-shoulder-soreness

[Outshined_One]

Matt Purke out indefinatly with shoulder soreness and making a trip to see Dr Andrews. Really sucks for him.

 

http://dallas.sbnation.com/2011/4/19/2121837/tcus-matt-purke-out-indefinitely-with-shoulder-soreness

 

Oof. He now has a excuse for his drop in velocity and stuff.

 

So, let's say he has rotator cuff surgery, is making a good recovery, and drops to the Cubs' second round pick. Should they take him?

[CubsInNC]

Matt Purke out indefinatly with shoulder soreness and making a trip to see Dr Andrews. Really sucks for him.

 

http://dallas.sbnation.com/2011/4/19/2121837/tcus-matt-purke-out-indefinitely-with-shoulder-soreness

 

Oof. He now has a excuse for his drop in velocity and stuff.

 

So, let's say he has rotator cuff surgery, is making a good recovery, and drops to the Cubs' second round pick. Should they take him?

 

 

Depends on the first round pick, but we have such a lack of positional prospects, I'd have a hard time faulting Wilken if he passed for a lower ceiling higher floor position player.

[Guest]

Matt Purke out indefinatly with shoulder soreness and making a trip to see Dr Andrews. Really sucks for him.

 

http://dallas.sbnation.com/2011/4/19/2121837/tcus-matt-purke-out-indefinitely-with-shoulder-soreness

 

Oof. He now has a excuse for his drop in velocity and stuff.

 

So, let's say he has rotator cuff surgery, is making a good recovery, and drops to the Cubs' second round pick. Should they take him?

 

 

Depends on the first round pick, but we have such a lack of positional prospects, I'd have a hard time faulting Wilken if he passed for a lower ceiling higher floor position player.

Honestly, I'm not sure if I agree about that. I actually think this is the most balanced the system has been in a long time. And I'd say the upper levels of the system are slanted towards hitting prospects instead of pitching. As is evidenced by the lack of decent candidates for the rotation right now, there is a distinct lack of SP prospects near major league ready.