2011 Draft Discussion

[davell]

I think Burch Smith is probably a 1st rounder and Carson Smith has a shot as well. I forgot about Casali, I like him alot and as a senior, he's likely to come cheaper than alot of other guys. Cam Seitzer is Kevin's kid too, by the way.

[Outshined_One]

3B Steve Buechele (son of the former Cub)

 

A small correction, but Steve's son is Garrett Buechele.

 

Actually, his full name is Steven Garrett Buechele. So, we're both right.

[davell]

I really hope we find some power hitters in this draft somehow. But, with all the top end pitching available, I hope we go with a pitcher in the 1st. Follow it up with some upside hitting after that.

[Guest]

If you're going to see Florida though, the 2 guys to watch are Austin Maddox and Karsten Whitson. Maddox is a possible top 10 guy NEXT year while Whitson(1st rounder who didn't sign) is the top freshman pitcher in the country and probably has the inside track on being the top overall pick in 3 seasons. Maddox is probably a 3rd baseman while Whitson is a righty pitcher.

 

Maddox has some nice power but he needs to learn how to walk (7 BB/42 K as a freshman).

 

It's kind of a down year for LSU actually. Mikie Mahtook is a Brett Jackson type and is probably a 1st rounder. Austin Nola is a solid SS who's probably a top 5 round guy and Matt Ott is a closer with top 3 round stuff. Kevin Gausman is a freshman for them who floated a 4 mill signing bonus last year, so he must think he's a potential top 5 pick at some point, even if most of the country doesn't appear to see that happening.

 

I gotta get off here for now, but these 3 teams stood out to me anyway. I'll try to give you a rundown sometime tomorrow on a couple of these other teams, but none have as many guys as these first 3 teams.

 

Gausman has good stuff but it tailed away at the end of his senior year. He's already LSU's Friday starter.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Damn, 6 mill for Purke? I thought it was closer to 4.5 for some reason. The more I'm reading about Hultzen, by the way, is he's up a tick velocity-wise, and could even surpass Purke this year as the top lefty. One scout thinks Jed Bradley is the best lefty in this class too. At any rate, it looks like the top end pitching is strong as hell and we should have an "ace" type guy available at 9.

 

 

Raisin, what are your thoughts on Cole vs. Bauer? I know Cole throws much harder and has the prototypical build everyone salivates over, but I've heard Lincecum comps for Bauer from a few guys and just wondered if you can see that kind of projection in him?

 

Bauer's a good pitcher but I see his ceiling as a 2/3 type..Lincecum is probably the most athletic pitcher in the league and a better athlete than Bauer.

[Guest]

I could easily see Bauer being a legit ace in the big leagues. I can think of a few aces who were less athletic. He brings an extensive repertoire and is extremely smart.

[davell]

Alex Dickerson and CJ Cron are both killing the ball early. Neither really has a position and both probably wind up at 1B. That said, they're both power bats and I'm starting to think they'd be a better pick(if we go hitter, and I'm hoping we don't) than Springer would be.

[RammyFanny]

For anyone interested, Orioles hangout always has some nice draft talk and a pretty active draft board.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=46

[Guest]

In an ESPN Insider article, Keith Law had this to say:

 

Keith Law[/url]"]Given where Cole is now and where Anthony Rendon (who DH'd again tonight) is, there is absolutely no question in my mind who the No. 1 prospect is for this year's draft. It's Cole, and that was also the unanimous sentiment among scouts with whom I spoke at the game. Cole could easily have pitched in the big leagues with the stuff he showed on Friday night.

 

He also said Cole compared favorably to Strasburg:

 

I think it's reasonable to discuss the comparison of Cole to Strasburg, who was the top college pitcher in the 2009 draft and among the best we've ever seen. Both pitchers are listed at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds. Strasburg had more velocity, but not a lot more -- he'd sit 94-98 and touch 100, while Cole worked at 92-98 without touching anything over 98. Both featured above-average breaking balls; Strasburg's was more consistent than what Cole showed tonight. Cole has a far better changeup, and his changeup might even be better than Strasburg's breaking ball was at the time he was drafted.

[Guest]

Yes, fall Rendon fall

[shnsajax]

Jungmann is looking pretty good should he fall to us. 31-3 K:BB in 35 innings in 4 starts, and is 4-0.

[RammyFanny]

Jungmann is looking pretty good should he fall to us. 31-3 K:BB in 35 innings in 4 starts, and is 4-0.

I wanted us to draft him since high school (though by now, there are others i'd take before him obviously). He seems like a really safe bet to be a quality major leaguer. Maybe not a bonafide ace, but i'd wager he's a pretty safe bet to be a Garza type starter for many years. Though I guess from reading online scouting reports they make it seem like his bust potential is high, but i've always thought a bit of the opposite for some reason.

[davell]

Callis had some insight as to how the draft is looking right now in his chat. (Tim, was that you with the Bauer at 9 question?)

 

 

Cole and Rendon are neck and neck to go 1 overall. Expects the other to go 2nd. Purke has probably slid a bit so far, because of early season injuries. Gray and Jungmann could be ahead of him right now. Hultzen and Bauer get a comp from a guy to Minor and McGuire, Callis doesn't disagree, but says that's not a bad thing either.

 

Springer is off to a slow start and a guy asked if the Nats have their pick between Starling, Gray, and Jackie Bradley Jr, who should they take? Callis went with Starling, just based on potential. Francisco Lindor, a HS SS, has started rising up the list. Callis has him in the 8-15 range now.(I've seen in other places he could go as high as 3 to Arizona). At any rate, with the up the middle love we have, if he's there at 9, I could see him as a definite possibility for us. Great glove, extremely fast, solid bat with 10-15 homer pop supposedly.

[davell]

http://baseballbeginnings.com/2011/03/15/trevor-bauer-report#more-13152

 

Here is a scout's profile on Bauer. Kind of hard to be pissed if we took him at 9 if this guy is right anyway.

[Guest]

Wasn't me that made the comment. I've been overseas with limited access. Haven't had the time for the BA stuff.

[shnsajax]

I hope Purke can find a way to slid a little farther back.

 

What are the thoughts if Bubba Starlings signability?

[Cubswin11]

I hope Purke can find a way to slid a little farther back.

 

What are the thoughts if Bubba Starlings signability?

I haven't heard anything recently, but if he's there for us at 9 I hope they strongly consider taking him. As for Purke the most recent stuff I have heard is that people are starting to think he might end up being a relief pitcher and not a starter.

[davell]

What little I've read on Starling and Archie Bradley is that both will use football as leverage, but both will probably wind up signing for a huge bonus.

[shnsajax]

What little I've read on Starling and Archie Bradley is that both will use football as leverage, but both will probably wind up signing for a huge bonus.

 

Works for me and take him away from Nebraska, 2 gifts in 1.

[toonsterwu]

I'm a bit biased, but with the way Danny Hultzen is tearing things up (another strong start against a very good FSU offense), I really wouldn't mind taking him in the first. Ideally, we'd use this draft to address concerns on the positional side, but there's always room for a top arm. For all the talk about his limited ceiling, his velocity has been better this year. Of course, the big issue has been how his body handles the workload as the season progresses.

[davell]

The two areas I want addressed are finding an elite pitcher and adding some true power bats to the farm. I think the best way to do this will be to take a pitcher at 9 and then spend a few picks in a row addressing hitting. Only way I'd deviate from this is if a signability guy(regardless of position) falls and is available in a later round.

 

Assuming Rendon doesn't fall to us though, I think the only other position player I'd be apt to consider at this point is Starling. I think I'd rather have Cole, Purke, Gray, Jungmann, Hultzen, Jed Bradley, and Barnes than any other position player out there.(and I'd take most of those guys before Starling as well most likely, due to lesser demands and ability to spend more on overslots later too)

[RammyFanny]

Law says the Dbacks are in love with Hultzen (they have two picks in front of us).

[davell]

Law says the Dbacks are in love with Hultzen (they have two picks in front of us).

 

 

His velo is up a bit this year, but I think what everyone will be waiting on is seeing if it stays that way towards the end of the year. If it does, I think it's at least 50/50 and probably higher odds than that, that he's off the board before we pick.

[davell]

By the way, a couple of days ago, Keith Law was asked who his top 4 were and he went with Cole, Rendon, Starling and either Lindor or Gray.

[toonsterwu]

Law says the Dbacks are in love with Hultzen (they have two picks in front of us).

 

They did draft him out of HS, IIRC, but Hultzen was dead set on UVA (and IIRC, I think they offered solid money as well).