2011 Draft Discussion

[illiniguy]

man I really need to walk the 150 feet over to the high school to watch Bubba play.

 

I'd love it if the Cubs nabbed him.

I can't see him lasting past the Royals though.

[davell]

I could see him dropping because of signability concerns. With this being as good of a draft as it appears to be, Starling and Archie Bradley both could drop, because teams will have to see a HUGE separation in talent in order to drop possibly 3-4 million MORE on one pick and eat up their budget in the process, just to keep these guys away from football. They can add 3-4 upper level talents for basically the price it COULD cost to pry these guys away from football.

[illiniguy]

I could see him dropping because of signability concerns. With this being as good of a draft as it appears to be, Starling and Archie Bradley both could drop, because teams will have to see a HUGE separation in talent in order to drop possibly 3-4 million MORE on one pick and eat up their budget in the process, just to keep these guys away from football. They can add 3-4 upper level talents for basically the price it COULD cost to pry these guys away from football.

Yeah, but the Royals are willing to spend on the draft. They spent a ton on Mellville, plus the local following would be huge for Starling. It would be a great PR move. Hope I am wrong.

[davell]

So, during the Cub Convention, Wilken said if he had his druthers, he'd like a hitter, but basically said he'd take whatever falls to him. To me, there just aren't that many hitters(right now anyway) that make sense to take in the 1st for us.

 

You've got Rendon, who ain't making it to us. Probably not even if he's not healthy. After that, I'm not sure there's a consensus 2nd best hitter even. Is it George Springer? He's got lots of power anyway, kind of fits what our system needs. Is it Travis Harrison? Same as Springer, but may not fit the mold of Wilken "athletic" type picks. Then, you have Jackie Bradley and Brian Goodwin, who both appear to be alot like Brett Jackson, so they're probably not someone we'd go after. You do have Bubba Starling, but what's it going to take to sign him? If it's a Zack Lee type commitment, is it worth it for the Cubs to do that or to use that extra money for more players?

 

I think we'll wind up taking a pitcher in the 1st round because of this in the end. Between Purke and Cole, it wouldn't totally shock me to see one of them fall, due to what type of money they may want. Sonny Gray has already been drafted by us once already and may be there if one of those 1st two guys aren't. I'd like him much more than any hitter not named Rendon. Taylor Jungmann seems like a very "safe" pick, as a guy who will almost definitely be a 3ish type starter in the majors. If he's willing to sign for slot, I think he'd be a decent guy for us. Daniel Norris appears to be the top HS pitcher at this point and since he's a lefty and throws serious heat, I can't say I'd be diappointed with him either. The other 2 guys who appear to be top HS pitchers with the ability to go top 10 are Archie Bradley, who like Starling could be swayed by football and Dylan Bundy, a shorter righty. Kind of like Gray coming out of HS possibly.

 

Anyway, for now, my top 9 as far as who I'd want the Cubs to take when it comes time in order are as follows......

 

1 Rendon

2 Purke

3 Cole

4 Norris

5 Gray

6 Starling

7 Jungmann

8 Harrison

9 Springer

[RammyFanny]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&page=FutureFifty1.0&addata=2009_insdr_mod_mlb_xxx_xxx

 

Keith Law Mock.

[shnsajax]

We do have a little bit of history in signing guys away from football, and I don't know if someone wants to risk a pick on Starling without a predraft deal in place. I really want Purke but that isn't happening. Jungmann I think will be realistic at #9.

[javy knows my name]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&page=FutureFifty1.0&addata=2009_insdr_mod_mlb_xxx_xxx

 

Keith Law Mock.

 

Hook me up!

[Ding Dong Johnson]

It's not really a mock, just the top 50 prospects. Isn't ESPN insider still free right now?

[imb]

I'm gonna go see Archie Bradley and Dylan Bundy face off on Wednesday. Well, assuming they're facing each other. I guess I should say I'm checking out BA vs. Owasso

[davell]

Anyone looking for how prospects are doing in college need to folow Chris Crawford on Twitter. He's updating stuff like a madman.

[CubInOK]

I'm gonna go see Archie Bradley and Dylan Bundy face off on Wednesday. Well, assuming they're facing each other. I guess I should say I'm checking out BA vs. Owasso

I just might have to join you...

[imb]

I'm gonna go see Archie Bradley and Dylan Bundy face off on Wednesday. Well, assuming they're facing each other. I guess I should say I'm checking out BA vs. Owasso

I just might have to join you...

 

Cool, hit me up if you do. I'll buy you a beer Pepsi

[Guest]

Gerrit Cole threw a complete game shutout (4 H, 11 K, 1 BB). Trevor Bauer goes tomorrow but there's a good chance that he'll be pushed back to Sunday due to heavy rain in the area.

[Splendid Splinter]

I'm gonna go see Archie Bradley and Dylan Bundy face off on Wednesday. Well, assuming they're facing each other. I guess I should say I'm checking out BA vs. Owasso

I just might have to join you...

 

 

Dang... if it was a weekend game, I would drive over to see that game.

[davell]

FWIW, Callis answered a question basically asking how many guys from the 2010 draft would be picked in the 1st round of this upcoming one and he said probably 13ish or so, from the gist of his answer.

 

He also said that after Harper, Taillon, Machado, C Sale, and Pomeranz nobody else goes in the top 15. Which should excite everyone here anyway.

 

Based off of what I've read about opening weekend in CB, the hitters that showed up big were Jackie Bradley and Mikie Mahtook(I think he hit 4 dingers this weekend). The 2 pitchers that looked the best were Cole and Hultzen. Gray started off very rough, but settled in and had an OK outing by the end.

[imb]

I'm gonna go see Archie Bradley and Dylan Bundy face off on Wednesday. Well, assuming they're facing each other. I guess I should say I'm checking out BA vs. Owasso

I just might have to join you...

 

 

Dang... if it was a weekend game, I would drive over to see that game.

 

I called the Owasso coaches today and they said Bundy wasn't going that day.

[Guest]

Harris (Washington DC): Aaron, you have NO idea how good it is to be chatting with you again!! Happy Spring and I hope you are enjoying California. How will the new bats change the way big league clubs scout college kids? While I realize nothing quite matches wood, how much closer are the new metal bats to wood? If a guy like Mikie Mahtook, who's off to an amazing start really rakes, how much more "credit" will the scouting community give him this year?

 

Aaron Fitt: I heard multiple scouts say this weekend that they really like the new bats because "it makes it easier for us to judge who can really hit and who can't," as one of them put it. The best hitters will really rise to the top with these bats, because you have to square balls up in order to hit the ball hard, rather than being able to miss the sweet spot and still hit home runs as you could with the old bats. Mahtook is a good example of a top talent separating himself with these new bats, and Jackie Bradley Jr. did the same thing during opening weekend.

 

JAYPERS (IL): If the draft were held today, give us your top 5 picks. Thanks.

 

Aaron Fitt: Rendon, Cole, Purke, Springer, Jungmann. Lots of guys in the mix after the top four — Bradley Jr., Jed Bradley, Gray, Bauer, Hultzen. Very strong college class.

 

BeeYellow (ATL): LHP GT arm Jed Bradley was dominant Saturday against Kent State except against their LHH right fielder. Is Jed a 1st rounder?

 

Aaron Fitt: No-doubter. Very strong chance to be a top-10 overall pick.

[Guest]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=3104

 

Here are the weekend stats for the nation's top draft-eligible college players, listed alphabetically by school. The stats were collected by CollegeSplits.com. CollegeSplits will begin collecting season totals for players on March 7.

[Guest]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2011/2611319.html

 

Known Boras advisees:

 

Related to this subject, I usually get asked which players the Boras Corp. will be advising in the draft. Known Boras advisees include Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon (No. 1 on the Top 50), UCLA righthander Gerrit Cole (No. 2), South Carolina outfielder Jackie Bradley (No. 7), Starling, Searcy (Ark.) High righty Dillon Howard (No. 20), Jesuit College Prep (Dallas) outfielder Josh Bell (No. 21), Vanderbilt shortstop Jason Esposito (No. 26), Miami Dade outfielder Brian Goodwin (No. 28), Kentucky righty Alex Meyer (No. 34), Hedges, Georgia outfielder Zach Cone (No. 50), Stanford lefty Brett Mooneyham, Southern California first baseman Ricky Oropesa, Arizona State first baseman Zach Wilson and Cal State Fullerton righty Noe Ramirez.

 

Other tough signs:

 

C Austin Hedges, Serra HS (San Juan Capistrano, CA) - strong UCLA commitment

OF Charlie Tilson, New Trier HS (Winnetka, IL) - strong Illinois commitment

LHP Matt Purke, TCU - expects $6 million as he was offered out of HS

RHP Archie Bradley, Broken Arrow HS (OK) - committed to play QB at Oklahoma but expected to sign in baseball eventually

OF Bubba Starling, Gardner-Edgerton (Gardner, KS) - committed to play QB at Nebraska but expected to sign in baseball eventually

[davell]

Damn, 6 mill for Purke? I thought it was closer to 4.5 for some reason. The more I'm reading about Hultzen, by the way, is he's up a tick velocity-wise, and could even surpass Purke this year as the top lefty. One scout thinks Jed Bradley is the best lefty in this class too. At any rate, it looks like the top end pitching is strong as hell and we should have an "ace" type guy available at 9.

 

 

Raisin, what are your thoughts on Cole vs. Bauer? I know Cole throws much harder and has the prototypical build everyone salivates over, but I've heard Lincecum comps for Bauer from a few guys and just wondered if you can see that kind of projection in him?

[davell]

By the way, Purke missed his start this weekend, due to blisters and Jed Bradley and Danny Hultzen both looked great. I think that it's at least plausible that Purke falls further down the draft boards than we may originally have thought. If his price tag is truly 6 mill(major league contract could make it easier to absorb though) and Bradley and Hultzen look like they're close to his ability, I could see them being taken ahead of him in the right circumstances.

[Splendid Splinter]

Can anyone tell who to watch out for in this list??? I’m at University of Arkansas and want to see some games this year.

 

Here are the home games I can attend to:

 

Vanderbilt (Mar. 25th-27th) Might be gone cuz it’s the end of spring break.

Oklahoma (Mar. 29th)

Texas State (Apr. 6th)

LSU (Apr. 8th-10th)

Miss St. (Apr. 15th-17th)

Southeast Missouri State (May 3rd/4th)

Florida (May 5th-7th)

Ole Miss (May 19th-21st)

 

Which teams should I try to go see? I imagine Vanderbilt/LSU/Florida are all good (I actually has never follow college baseball before- just followed/watched a few players every year, but that’s it). I wanna change it so I can get into college baseball. Also when you pick out the teams to go see, what players on those teams to watch out for???

 

If someone can help me out, I could come here and talk about the game/players that I went to....

[davell]

If there's any way to catch Vandy, they've got the most MLB type players for this upcoming draft most likely. Their entire rotation of Sonny Gray, Jack Armstrong, and Grayson Garvin are all potential top 3 round picks. With Gray and Armstrong having the potential to be top 10 overall type guys. Jason Esposito(SS) is also a probable 1st rounder, although he's thought of as a 3B at the next level most likely.

 

Navery Moore was once thought of as a 1st round "ace" type as well, but arm issues have put him in their closer role, but he's throwing in the mid to upper 90's again and he'l be a top 5 round guy assuming he stays healthy. Aaron Westlake is a damn good hitter for them too but he doesn't really have a position defensively and he's not looking like he's a prototypical power bat either, so his draft status is kind of up in the air, but he's still a top 5 round talent at least.

 

Florida has Anthony DeSclafani and Nick Maronde(lefty) in their rotation, and both of them project as top 6-8 round guys right now, with Maronde being a guy that could make a solid move upwards from there. Alex Panteliodis also has a shot at becoming a top 5 round guy as a lefty pitcher as well.

 

Preston Tucker is a 1st baseman with some usable power that is possibly a 1st round guy this year too, although I'm not all that high on him myself by the small amount of footage I've seen.

 

If you're going to see Florida though, the 2 guys to watch are Austin Maddox and Karsten Whitson. Maddox is a possible top 10 guy NEXT year while Whitson(1st rounder who didn't sign) is the top freshman pitcher in the country and probably has the inside track on being the top overall pick in 3 seasons. Maddox is probably a 3rd baseman while Whitson is a righty pitcher.

 

It's kind of a down year for LSU actually. Mikie Mahtook is a Brett Jackson type and is probably a 1st rounder. Austin Nola is a solid SS who's probably a top 5 round guy and Matt Ott is a closer with top 3 round stuff. Kevin Gausman is a freshman for them who floated a 4 mill signing bonus last year, so he must think he's a potential top 5 pick at some point, even if most of the country doesn't appear to see that happening.

 

I gotta get off here for now, but these 3 teams stood out to me anyway. I'll try to give you a rundown sometime tomorrow on a couple of these other teams, but none have as many guys as these first 3 teams.

[Outshined_One]

It's worth noting that Vanderbilt is absolutely loaded this year, so you might want to make an effort to catch them. In addition to the guys davell has noted, here are some other guys to keep an eye on (italicized names eligible in 2012):

 

Vanderbilt: P David Hill, P Taylor Hill, C Drew Fann, C/1B Curt Casali, IF Sam Lind, SS Anthony Gomez, OF Mike Yastrzemski (Carl's grandson), P Sam Selman

Oklahoma: P Bobby Shore, P Burch Smith (a JUCO transfer I really liked last year), IF Evan Mistich, 3B Steve Buechele (son of the former Cub), C Tyler Ogle, 1B Cam Seitzer, OF Max White

Texas State: P Carson Smith

LSU: OF/P Jimmy Dykstra, P Mitchell Hopkins, IF Ralph Rhymes, 2B/3B Tyler Hanover, P Kevin Gausman

Mississippi State: OF Carl Bishop, RHP Devin Jones

SE Missouri State: SS Kenton Parmley

Florida: P Anthony Panteliodis, P Justin Poovey, P Matt Campbell, P Thomas Toledo, C Ben McMahan, P Brian Johnson, P Hudson Randall, C Michael Zunino, SS/2B Nolan Fontana

Ole Miss: P Davis Goforth, OF/1B Matt Smith, 1B Matt Snyder, 1B/C Miles Hamblin, C Taylor Hightower

 

Most of the best guys were already listed by davell, but there's at least some intrigue with the guys I listed above. The ones I listed might not end up in the first round of the 2011 draft, but they could make some noise.

[Slugger_16]

3B Steve Buechele (son of the former Cub)

 

A small correction, but Steve's son is Garrett Buechele.