2011 Draft Discussion

[davell]

Law says the Dbacks are in love with Hultzen (they have two picks in front of us).

 

They did draft him out of HS, IIRC, but Hultzen was dead set on UVA (and IIRC, I think they offered solid money as well).

 

 

On top of that, I think that Hultzen's dad told teams NOT to draft him, because there was no way he was not going to school and evidently was pissed bigtime at the D-Backs for taking him. I got that from some dude at orioleshangout on their draft board, but he seems like he knows his stuff and may even be a scout or was a scout or something to that nature anyway.

[Cubswin11]

I really hope we have a chance to get Bubba or Gray

[davell]

I want Purke and think it's starting to become a legit possibility.

[shnsajax]

I want Purke and think it's starting to become a legit possibility.

 

The odds have certainly increased, and he is not going to be cheap which might help too. I don't know why but I think a dugout of Purke and Zambrano would be a lot of fun.

[KingCubsFan]

I want Purke and think it's starting to become a legit possibility.

I'm hoping Rendon continues to struggle

[davell]

I want Purke and think it's starting to become a legit possibility.

I'm hoping Rendon continues to struggle

 

 

I don't think he's struggling as much as it's he's just not getting pitched to. Everything I've read said he's not dropping past 2nd, unless another bigtime injury happens basically.

 

With Purke though, he's pitched well, he's just not pitched deep into games yet. But his velo seems to be down a tad and his motion has some worried he's going to wind up in the back of a pen, instead of as a top of the rotation starter.

 

At any rate, with Cole, Purke, Barnes, Gray, Hultzen, Jed Bradley, and Bauer all out there, more than one of these guys is going to be available when we pick and all appear to at least have "ace" capability. Not even counting any high schoolers like Daniel Norris, Archie Bradley, or Dylan Bundy, who all have that upside as well. Basically, if we take a hitter at 9, it had better be Rendon or Starling. I've fallen into Raisin's camp on Springer as he's just not safe enough to take that high. Although I still think he'll be off the board before we pick. Jackie Bradley would be a very nice player to have, but we've already got Brett basically doing the same type of stuff Bradley's going to be doing. The only other bat I could see possibly off the board would be Lindor, just because SS is such a premium. Hell, with as good as he's been playing, I guess Andrew Susac could rise into our territory as well, since he's a great defensive catcher and he's hitting the ball now as well. Bottom line is this though: At 9, we're going to have quite a few guys who can become bigtime players available to choose from.

[KingCubsFan]

I want Purke and think it's starting to become a legit possibility.

I'm hoping Rendon continues to struggle

 

 

I don't think he's struggling as much as it's he's just not getting pitched to. Everything I've read said he's not dropping past 2nd, unless another bigtime injury happens basically.

From ESPN's Draft Blog:

 

Why Rendon could land with the Cubs

 

...If he gets past Pittsburgh and Seattle, it's conceivable that Rendon slips past Arizona at No. 3 and Baltimore at No. 4, and slides all the way to the Chicago Cubs at No. 9 overall. How? If Rendon gets past Pittsburgh, there may be reasons for the madness; the Pirates and Scott Boras, Rendon's adviser, have a sketchy track record that we've discussed here before. And the Pirates, despite having spent money in the past, may not be interested in doing it again, especially for a Boras client -- which also may mean they could ultimately be out on Cole, too.

 

 

 

This is all purely speculation at this point, but with Kansas City, Arizona and Cleveland selecting after the Orioles, Cubs fans could luck out and get a shot at Rendon. The O's appear the most likely club to tab Rendon among those that select between No. 3 and the Cubs, especially considering the Diamondbacks' pick at No. 7 is unprotected....

 

[davell]

I want Purke and think it's starting to become a legit possibility.

I'm hoping Rendon continues to struggle

 

 

I don't think he's struggling as much as it's he's just not getting pitched to. Everything I've read said he's not dropping past 2nd, unless another bigtime injury happens basically.

From ESPN's Draft Blog:

 

Why Rendon could land with the Cubs

 

...If he gets past Pittsburgh and Seattle, it's conceivable that Rendon slips past Arizona at No. 3 and Baltimore at No. 4, and slides all the way to the Chicago Cubs at No. 9 overall. How? If Rendon gets past Pittsburgh, there may be reasons for the madness; the Pirates and Scott Boras, Rendon's adviser, have a sketchy track record that we've discussed here before. And the Pirates, despite having spent money in the past, may not be interested in doing it again, especially for a Boras client -- which also may mean they could ultimately be out on Cole, too.

 

 

 

This is all purely speculation at this point, but with Kansas City, Arizona and Cleveland selecting after the Orioles, Cubs fans could luck out and get a shot at Rendon. The O's appear the most likely club to tab Rendon among those that select between No. 3 and the Cubs, especially considering the Diamondbacks' pick at No. 7 is unprotected....

 

 

 

There's no mention of the Nats, who pick 6th and have shown for sure they'll take the best on the board and give out bigtime bonuses. That said, I'll be beyond shocked if he's not hurt, that he doesn't go first or second.

[RammyFanny]

Anyone want to give their opinion on Matt Barnes and Archie Bradley? They're some of the few top end guys I don't really know much about and figure to go right around our pick.

[davell]

Bradley is a big guy with a FB that hits 95 or so and has a good power curve. He has a change he's working on. As a bigtime football player as well, he's probably going to be a tough sign, because of the money he's probably going to want to give up football. I'd guess if it's not for that, he's probably somewhere in the 8-15 range, but because of it, I could see him dropping down a little from that area towards the back third of the 1st round.

 

Barnes has had a very solid start to the season and has probably moved up a little in most people's eyes. His FB gets up to 96-97 at times and for now he's throwing both a curve and a slider. The slider will probably win out here as it's been more consistent for him. He has a decent changeup that's still getting better too. He's still growing into his body some, but I've heard potential ace used describing him from a few guys at this point. My guess is he's a top 5-10 pick.

 

Personally, I'd take Barnes over Bradley just based on the money that's likely to be involved, so I could have more left over to spend in the next couple of rounds, since the talent's going to be there for the taking much moreso than last year.

[RammyFanny]

Thanks.

[davell]

ProspectInsider's new mock top 10.

 

Pitt-Garrit Cole

Sea-Anthony Rendon

Ariz-Jed Bradley

Balt-Bubba Starling

KC-Sonny Gray

Wash-Francisco Lindor

Ariz-Trevor Bauer

Cleve-Matt Barnes

CHC-Dylan Bundy

SD-Blake Swihart

 

Some notables who aren't listed include Matt Purke, Taylor Jungmann, George Springer, Jackie Bradley Jr, Danny Hultzen, Daniel Norris, and Archie Bradley. All of whom have shown up in plenty of previous mocks top 10's.

 

By the way, as far as Dylan Bundy goes, Keith Law mentioned in his blog this week that Bundy looked better in his last start than Jameson Taillon looked at ANY point last year. IMB, if you get a chance to see him pitch this year, it'd probably be worth it.

[javy knows my name]

Would anyone else be pretty surprised to see us spend a top 10 pick on a hs pitcher? Especially with that type of college talent still on the board?

[Outshined_One]

Would anyone else be pretty surprised to see us spend a top 10 pick on a hs pitcher? Especially with that type of college talent still on the board?

 

Depends on the quality of HS pitcher and the asking price. The Cubs nearly took Jarrod Parker over Vitters a few years ago, so I think Wilken wouldn't be averse to taking a HS pitcher in that spot.

 

Think of it this way, in this draft, would you rather have a top-tier HS pitcher or a second-tier college hitter or pitcher?

[Guest]

Would anyone else be pretty surprised to see us spend a top 10 pick on a hs pitcher? Especially with that type of college talent still on the board?

 

There are a few HS pitchers I'd take over the top college talent (especially the college bats). It really depends on how things shake out ahead of the Cubs.

[davell]

These are the guys I consider top tier players for this draft personally......

 

College bats- Rendon, Bradley, Springer(talent wise but definitely boom or bust guy)

 

HS bats- Springer, Lindor, Swihart

 

College arms- Cole, Purke, Gray, Barnes, Jungmann, Je. Bradley, Bauer, Hultzen

 

HS arms- Bundy, Norris, A.Bradley

 

Callis and Law have both said in the past this draft has 15ish or so guys that would go top 5 in last year's draft, so we should be stoked that we'll get the equivalent of a top 5 guy from last year anyway.......

 

I'm pulling for an arm in the 1st and have a guy like Alex Dickerson, CJ Cron,Rickie Oropesa, Jason Coats or Mikie Mahtook from college or Travis Harrison, Larry Greene, or Derek Fisher fall to us in rounds 2 and 3.

[toonsterwu]

davell - I love Hultzen, but I don't think I'd go so far as to say the kid had "ace" capability. I don't know the other arms as well as I follow Hultzen, but I feel like his ceiling is more of a very good "2". That said, different perceptions of what defines "ace" capability may be the issue here.

[Splendid Splinter]

Forgot to talk about it on here.... (I saw Sonny Gray play against University of Arkansas last Friday- I go to University of Arkansas now so I'll be able to see some of these guys)

 

My ticket was in LF behind Arkansas’s bullpen, which was pretty cool seats IMO. Baum Stadium is really nice and pretty big for college. It reminds me a little of Victory Field in Indianapolis. I was in my seat for about 5 innings then I walked around the whole ballpark in the last 4 innings. It was kinda hard to really scout hitters out in LF. The game was great fun as Arkansas beat Vanderbilt 2-1 and gave Gray his first loss I believe.

 

Westlake went 0-3 with 3 Ks. His swing seems long or his hand speed isn’t fast to me as he was behind in a lot of pitches he swung at.

 

Esposito went 1-4 with a K. His K was a pitch that I thought was a ball low and in. I got to see him in action defensively a few times. He had 3 assists and dove at 2 other balls that went through. Nothing stood out really, but nothing bad either.

 

What are these guys projected in the draft right now? Just curious…

 

Sonny Gray… It was interesting to see him pitch. It was tough to scout or get a handle on him personally.

 

His line tonight: 8 IP (complete game loss) 6 H 2 ER 4 BB 12 Ks 34 BF 4 FO 8 GO 121 pitches…

 

I like Gray, but I don’t know if I would want the Cubs to draft him. I mean there are good and bad things about him. At least tonight, he had a good groundball % with a lot of Ks. I like seeing those 2 together. He also wasn’t locating pitches very well. While he had the endurance to be a starter right now, there’s a good possibility that he could end up being a bullpen arm as well. His mechanics looks violent and it may or may not cause injury in the future. One thing I don’t like is his follow through after he throws his pitch. He ends up in the first base side away from the mound a bit and it seems a couple times his back was facing the hitter. His slider was on tonight. I’m pretty sure that it’s a slider, not a curve. I don’t know his pitches, but it looks like fastball/slider/changeup. He fooled several hitters with his slider tonight. His fastball was a little off in location in the first, but got better as the game went on. I couldn’t tell if he used his changeup a lot or not, but it looked like the pitch that Arkansas got hits on. It’s not bad, but it’s not above average I should say.

 

When he’s just standing there on the mound, he reminds me of Roy Oswalt/Ted Lilly… He looks to be like 5’10" (I really doubt that he’s 6’ IMO) and got a big lower half. His legs are stocky and got a big butt. Hahaha it’s funny, but a couple people in LF stands around me were talking about his butt.

 

While I was walking around in the 6th inning, I ran into a guy who looks like a scout. He had the whole looks: notepad/radar gun/etc… I went up to him and started talking to him. He is indeed a MLB scout that was there to watch Gray pitch tonight.

 

It was pretty cool since he was nice enough to let me ask him some questions and took the time to answer them. (He was answering them when Gray wasn’t on the mound and I didn’t bother him much with questions when Gray was on the mound as I didn’t want to be rude)

 

I found out that he is a scout for an AL team (wouldn’t tell me which AL team). I ask him about tips for scouting/etc… It was very interesting to know. Then I got to ask/talk to him about baseball stuff, the draft, and Gray…

 

He thought Gray would stick as a starter (question I ask was about concerns of maybe being a reliever due to mechanics/endurance that had some people worry about). I ask him what was his speed tonight and his fastball topped out at 96, but sat 92-93 with late movement that tails against righty through the whole game and slider top at 87 (got hit hard as it was flat- a long flyout as he told me), but mainly 82-84 with very good movement. The scout likes those 2 pitches. He said his changeup is just ok, but it needs some improvement for him to be above average and to take the next step as a starter. I asked him (assuming he knew the draft order, which teams, etc…) where Gray would end up and he said he thinks Nationals will pick him with the 6th pick. I ask him if there were any reason and he just said it was a gut feeling. I then ask him who he thinks the Cubs would draft right now (told him I was a Cubs fan) and he said Lindor as Cubs like to get up the middle type player. My last question to him was if he was the Cubs scout and had the first pick this year, who would he tell Jim Hendry to draft… It seemed like before I could finish my sentence, he said Anthony Rendon right away.

 

It was very interesting and informative to listen to this scout. I wish I ask who’s his top 5 guys and a couple others…

[davell]

Esposito is a mid to late first rounder and Westlake is a guy that's going to be a bunch of varying opinion on most likely. He's a guy that depending on his season, could still go anywhere from the second to the tenth round probably.

 

 

I wasn't even going to share this, but locally(Hampton Roads area) I went to see a great pitching matchup of two HS kids(Jake Cave and Dashorn Lake) that project as supplemental round to 3-4 round talents. There were a few scouts there and I started talking with a guy who was a scout as well and started asking typical scouting questions about those 2 kids. In the end, I also asked him who he thought the Cubs would take, and he too said Francisco Lindor.......

[StarlinOnYou]

Who I would like the Cubs to draft in order:

 

1) Garrit Cole

2) Bubba Starling

3) Anthony Rendon

4) Sonny Gray

5) Dylan Bundy

6) Matt Purke

7) Danny Hultzen

8) Taylor Jungmann

9) Archie Bradley

10) Francisco Lindor

 

Feel like I have missed someone though.

[Outshined_One]

Who I would like the Cubs to draft in order:

 

1) Garrit Cole

2) Bubba Starling

3) Anthony Rendon

4) Sonny Gray

5) Dylan Bundy

6) Matt Purke

7) Danny Hultzen

8) Taylor Jungmann

9) Archie Bradley

10) Francisco Lindor

 

Feel like I have missed someone though.

 

I'd probably have Trevor Baur, Matt Barnes, and Jed Bradley in there.

[davearm2]

I'm surprised to see Starling that high, given the football commitment you'd have to overcome.

[javy knows my name]

I'm surprised to see Starling that high, given the football commitment you'd have to overcome.

 

He likes his name

[Cubswin11]

I'm surprised to see Starling that high, given the football commitment you'd have to overcome.

$7-10m in guaranteed money is awful hard to walk away from. If a team is willing to spend the money on him in the first 10 picks (which I think quite a few are) I think it's a calculated risk that is worth taking that he will sign with you if you are willing to go into that price range.

[davell]

I don't want Starling OR Archie Bradley since this year's draft is so deep. If I can get a guy with slightly less talent(or possibly even the same) I'm spending less, so I can spend more later on, with the chance of getting 2 or 3 1st round talent types possibly for the same money you mau have to spend on just Starling or Bradley. This, of course, assumes we don't have an unlimited budget and can draft BPA every round and not worry about how much we're spending.