2011 Draft Discussion

[CubsInNC]

Matt Purke out indefinatly with shoulder soreness and making a trip to see Dr Andrews. Really sucks for him.

 

http://dallas.sbnation.com/2011/4/19/2121837/tcus-matt-purke-out-indefinitely-with-shoulder-soreness

 

Oof. He now has a excuse for his drop in velocity and stuff.

 

So, let's say he has rotator cuff surgery, is making a good recovery, and drops to the Cubs' second round pick. Should they take him?

 

 

Depends on the first round pick, but we have such a lack of positional prospects, I'd have a hard time faulting Wilken if he passed for a lower ceiling higher floor position player.

Honestly, I'm not sure if I agree about that. I actually think this is the most balanced the system has been in a long time. And I'd say the upper levels of the system are slanted towards hitting prospects instead of pitching. As is evidenced by the lack of decent candidates for the rotation right now, there is a distinct lack of SP prospects near major league ready.

 

I agree that there are few upper level SP prospects as well. But I'm not ruling out at AA or higher McNutt, Whitnack, Jackson/Carpenter, Simpson (included only because was #1 pick, I realize he's @ peoria) as starters, or Smit, Dolis, Jackson/Carpenter as potential relievers. I'm sure I'm jaded, but aside from Jackson, I'm not feeling as high that anyone in AA or above will be as much of a contributor. While the ceiling for Vitters is high, so is the potential flame out, and I'm pessimistically and based on no logic guessing we'll get a year or 2 of Gary Scott out of him. Flaherty/Lemahieu, this season will be more indicative, but we could get a starting 2B, or a couple of AAAA PH's out of them. Aside from them, we're down to A+, and hitters who really haven't been exposed yet, or excelled.

 

I'm not saying that I'd pass on Purke, should recovery be going well. I still likely would take him in that scenario (and 100% would if we took a position player in Rd 1), but if we drafted a P in Rd 1 and there were mixed reviews or spin of the recovery process, I wouldn't fault Wilken if he passed on him and took a positional player.

[Guest]

If you're willing to drop down to Daytona for pitchers (Whitenack), you should do the same for position players and consider Ha and Lake (both of whom I'd rank in the Cubs top 10). And if you're willing to go down to Peoria for Simpson, then you should consider Szczur who got paid more than Simpson.

[BeerHere]

Sorry, I really don't see why everyone here is so high on Lake.

[CubsInNC]

If you're willing to drop down to Daytona for pitchers (Whitenack), you should do the same for position players and consider Ha and Lake (both of whom I'd rank in the Cubs top 10). And if you're willing to go down to Peoria for Simpson, then you should consider Szczur who got paid more than Simpson.

 

It was my bad on including Whitnack, I forgot he was at Daytona, wasn't my intent to skew with the #s. I only included Simpson as he was a 1st round pick from last year. Barring injury/mental issues, I'd say he's all but guaranteed a chance to be at least bullpen filler. Even if you include Szczur, or drop Simpson, it doesn't show balance, to me. It shows more pitchers likely to contribute. And more q's at the postitions. Szczur is in the same boat as samardzija, imo. We need some time to even see what he will become. And he was paid more, because we had to buy him out of another sport, that he may or may not have been drafted in. I have hope for Ha and Lake. But it's just that. I think Ha needs to show he can do it consistently against better pitching. He had good #s last year in Peoria, but I'd like to see him face tougher pitching. He doesn't draw walks, and once he gets to pitchers that won't throw him strikes, or strikes he can hit well, it will be interesting to see how he adjusts. He could convince me this year he's an OF prospect. I can't see him moving Jackson from CF, so unless he develops power/patience to move to a corner OF spot, he's not a lock, to me. And Lake, yeah, he may be in the top 10 prospects, but remember we traded away 2 from that list this offseason, by default, making it weaker. He had a great streak last year. but this year? He hasn't shown that last year was a breakthrough, yet. Moreso that it was just a hot streak.

 

Look, I want to believe that these guys will reach their ceilings, at least some of them. But the Cubs developmental system (instructors, methods, timing, and facilities) over the past 20+ years doesn't lead me to think many will. I know a new guy is in charge of the minors (Fleita) and Wilken in charge of scouting. And maybe things are changing, but I need to see proof before I can believe, optimistically. I'm getting there.

[Guest]

I think Tim's point on much more balance than in years past is accurate. If I were to come up with a top 10 list, I'd have 5 position players (Jackson, Vitters, Ha, Szczur and Lake) and 5 pitchers/4 starters and 1 reliever (McNutt, Carpenter, Dolis, Cabrera and Simpson). Obviously my list won't match yours but I find it tough to believe too many people wouldn't at least have 4 position players in their current top 10.

 

That said, the biggest weakness in this farm system is power and I hope it is addressed in June.

[davell]

I think it's pretty balanced right now as well. I definitely think we need to add some power, but I really want a potential "ace" taken in round 1, then fill in with power over the next couple of rounds. With as deep as the draft is, I think we've got a solid chance to accomplish this.

[KingCubsFan]

Sorry, I really don't see why everyone here is so high on Lake.

He had a good month or so last year. And he's one of the few high ceiling players in the system.

[davearm2]

I think it's pretty balanced right now as well. I definitely think we need to add some power, but I really want a potential "ace" taken in round 1, then fill in with power over the next couple of rounds. With as deep as the draft is, I think we've got a solid chance to accomplish this.

To me, the Cubs' system is "balanced" right now because several of the really good pitchers have either graduated or have been traded.

 

IMO the system has always been, and continues to be, thin in hitters. Only now it's thin in pitchers too. I suppose that counts as balanced.

[Guest]

I think it's pretty balanced right now as well. I definitely think we need to add some power, but I really want a potential "ace" taken in round 1, then fill in with power over the next couple of rounds. With as deep as the draft is, I think we've got a solid chance to accomplish this.

To me, the Cubs' system is "balanced" right now because several of the really good pitchers have either graduated or have been traded.

 

IMO the system has always been, and continues to be, thin in hitters. Only now it's thin in pitchers too. I suppose that counts as balanced.

 

It's not like the Cubs haven't lost top-30 prospect position players to graduation (Castro, Colvin, Barney) or trade (Lee, Guyer, Chirinos) recently.

[javy knows my name]

Szczur is in the same boat as samardzija, imo. We need some time to even see what he will become. And he was paid more, because we had to buy him out of another sport, that he may or may not have been drafted in.

 

This was so spectacularly wrong, I had to stop reading

[CubsInNC]

Szczur is in the same boat as samardzija, imo. We need some time to even see what he will become. And he was paid more, because we had to buy him out of another sport, that he may or may not have been drafted in.

 

This was so spectacularly wrong, I had to stop reading

 

 

Really now? He got a larger bonus than Simpson for some other reason than to buy out his commitment to football? And, yes, any athlete, who devotes part time to 2 sports, does need time to develop and see what they'll become. I'm not talking Samardzjia now, I was referring to the promise he showed when he was drafted, although he was much more of a reach, imo, than Szczur.

[Guest]

Szczur is in the same boat as samardzija, imo. We need some time to even see what he will become. And he was paid more, because we had to buy him out of another sport, that he may or may not have been drafted in.

 

This was so spectacularly wrong, I had to stop reading

 

 

Really now? He got a larger bonus than Simpson for some other reason than to buy out his commitment to football? And, yes, any athlete, who devotes part time to 2 sports, does need time to develop and see what they'll become. I'm not talking Samardzjia now, I was referring to the promise he showed when he was drafted, although he was much more of a reach, imo, than Szczur.

 

Szczur was actually rated higher than Simpson by BA, PG, etc.

[CubsInNC]

Szczur is in the same boat as samardzija, imo. We need some time to even see what he will become. And he was paid more, because we had to buy him out of another sport, that he may or may not have been drafted in.

 

This was so spectacularly wrong, I had to stop reading

 

 

Really now? He got a larger bonus than Simpson for some other reason than to buy out his commitment to football? And, yes, any athlete, who devotes part time to 2 sports, does need time to develop and see what they'll become. I'm not talking Samardzjia now, I was referring to the promise he showed when he was drafted, although he was much more of a reach, imo, than Szczur.

 

Szczur was actually rated higher than Simpson by BA, PG, etc.

 

That I did not know. I stand corrected on his rating and partial reasons for his bonus. But, I still feel he has more to prove, in terms of actually reaching his promise, because of being a 2 sport athlete. Just out of curiosity, is there any way of determining where Samardzijia ranked as a prospect relative to those 2, when he was drafted?

[davell]

Szczur is in the same boat as samardzija, imo. We need some time to even see what he will become. And he was paid more, because we had to buy him out of another sport, that he may or may not have been drafted in.

 

This was so spectacularly wrong, I had to stop reading

 

 

Really now? He got a larger bonus than Simpson for some other reason than to buy out his commitment to football? And, yes, any athlete, who devotes part time to 2 sports, does need time to develop and see what they'll become. I'm not talking Samardzjia now, I was referring to the promise he showed when he was drafted, although he was much more of a reach, imo, than Szczur.

 

Szczur was actually rated higher than Simpson by BA, PG, etc.

 

That I did not know. I stand corrected on his rating and partial reasons for his bonus. But, I still feel he has more to prove, in terms of actually reaching his promise, because of being a 2 sport athlete. Just out of curiosity, is there any way of determining where Samardzijia ranked as a prospect relative to those 2, when he was drafted?

 

 

If I remember correctly, Shark was considered a 1st round possibility for a team, IF he didn't have football standing in the way. I don't remember how that draft was regarded though, in terms of talent.

 

 

On the other hand, Jim Callis(who loves Szczur) says he would be considered a 1st round type in THIS draft, if he were in it. He uses Mikie Mahtook as a comparison for him. Considering how strong this draft is, it's extremely high praise, even if it comes from a guy with a mancrush on Szczur.

[CubsInNC]

If I remember correctly, Shark was considered a 1st round possibility for a team, IF he didn't have football standing in the way. I don't remember how that draft was regarded though, in terms of talent.

 

 

On the other hand, Jim Callis(who loves Szczur) says he would be considered a 1st round type in THIS draft, if he were in it. He uses Mikie Mahtook as a comparison for him. Considering how strong this draft is, it's extremely high praise, even if it comes from a guy with a mancrush on Szczur.

 

After reading from Callis, he does seem high on him, but seems to be higher because he's better/more polished than he expected. He is wary if he spends the entire year at Peoria, and struggles though. He does seem to be the only one really high on him. Law, Sickels, etc don't seem to think much of him, in terms of projection. I guess I'm more looking at him from that perspective, but a couple solid years of "growth" will convince me otherwise.

[Guest]

Szczur is in the same boat as samardzija, imo. We need some time to even see what he will become. And he was paid more, because we had to buy him out of another sport, that he may or may not have been drafted in.

 

This was so spectacularly wrong, I had to stop reading

 

 

Really now? He got a larger bonus than Simpson for some other reason than to buy out his commitment to football? And, yes, any athlete, who devotes part time to 2 sports, does need time to develop and see what they'll become. I'm not talking Samardzjia now, I was referring to the promise he showed when he was drafted, although he was much more of a reach, imo, than Szczur.

 

Szczur was actually rated higher than Simpson by BA, PG, etc.

 

That I did not know. I stand corrected on his rating and partial reasons for his bonus. But, I still feel he has more to prove, in terms of actually reaching his promise, because of being a 2 sport athlete. Just out of curiosity, is there any way of determining where Samardzijia ranked as a prospect relative to those 2, when he was drafted?

 

Without a doubt, some of the $1.5 million Szczur got was to convince him to drop football (though the injuries he had at Villanova seemed to help sway his decision).

 

Samardzija was the 37th best prospect per BA in 2006 (Tyler Colvin was #170 and Drew Rundle was #106).

 

You can't really compare drafts since the quality is different but BA had Hayden Simpson at #190, Matt Szczur was #174, Reggie Golden was #96 and Micah Gibbs was #60. Those rankings don't really matter that much seeing as Szczur, Simpson and Golden are all considered better prospects than Gibbs and we're not even a full year from the draft.

[Guest]

FYI Jackie Bradley Jr. hurt his wrist diving for a ball yesterday. No MRI scheduled but there are estimates that he will be out 2 weeks.

[Guest]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-dish/2011/2611619.html

 

With the draft less than two months away, we present a look at how the first round would unfold—if three of our draft experts were in charge of each team's scouting department. This isn't a projection of how the first round will play out, but rather who editor John Manuel, executive editor Jim Callis and assistant editor Conor Glassey prefer for picks 1-33. They alternated choices throughout the first round while taking into account each club's needs and financial situation.

 

They took Francisco Lindor at 9 for the Cubs:

 

9. CUBS (Jim): I'd be surprised if the Diamondbacks took Guerrieri over one of the many college pitchers left on the board at that point, especially with an unprotected choice. I could see Bauer going there, though I like Conor's Lincecum/Bauer parallel. While Chicago looks set at shortstop for a while with Starlin Castro, they have a gaping hole at second base. I'm taking Francisco Lindor here, with the idea that he nudges Castro over to second base in a few years. If not Lindor, the Cubs probably would opt for a righthander such as Dylan Bundy (Owasso, Okla., HS), Taylor Jungmann (Texas) or Matt Barnes (Connecticut).

[CP_414]

If Bundy is still around and the Cubs pick Lindor, I'll be very disappointed.

[Guest]

If Bundy is still around and the Cubs pick Lindor, I'll be very disappointed.

 

Agreed. I know Guerrieri arguably has passed him as the top prep arm but I'd rather have either of them over Lindor.

[Guest]

FYI, I just read in Ask BA that Callis revised his #3 pick and would take Trevor Bauer there (Bauer went 8 to Cleveland in their hypothetical draft).

[Guest]

Also I find it amusing that 2 potential first rounders have the names Matt Barnes and Derek Fisher.

[CP_414]

It changes almost daily, but my top 9 in order for the Cubs would be...

 

Rendon, Cole, Starling, Bundy, Bauer, Hultzen, Gray, Jed Bradley, Springer.

[davell]

Lindor wouldn't be my pick either, with those guys all on the board, but I won't be but so disappointed, since he's a guy that's probably the best defensive player in the draft, has a solid hit tool, and may wind up as a double digit home run once he fills out some.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Ugh, if we want a slick fielding middle infielder who may or may not be able to hit, we can send a bus to the DR and fill it up with them. With all that pitching talent, I'd much prefer one of them unless Starling somehow falls to us.